UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song  29 Aug 2026 · Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China, CN

Julia Polastri defeats Xiong Jingnan by KO/TKO

Loss Xiong Jingnan 19-4-0
Win Julia Polastri 15-6-0
KO/TKO · head kick

Round 1 · 3:06

Xiong Jingnan vs Polastri — Women's Strawweight · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Julia Polastri defeated Xiong Jingnan by KO (head kick) at 3:06 of Round 1

Prelims

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Xiong Jingnan

Eleven of Xiong's nineteen wins are knockouts, and she has fought seven five-round fights — more than anyone else on this card. At 38 she arrives off a decision loss to Angela Hill, with three defeats in twenty-two fights and only one of them ending early.

Case for Polastri

Polastri lands 6.22 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 5.18 doing it. Twelve of her twenty fights reached the judges — and so did all six of her defeats. Nobody has finished her, which is the single most relevant fact against a puncher.

What We Were Watching For

  • Xiong has fought seven five-round fights. Nobody else on this card has fought more than three.
  • All six of Polastri's defeats are decisions. Eleven of Xiong's nineteen wins are knockouts.
  • Polastri lands 6.22 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 5.18; her 58% takedown defence is the softer number.
  • Both arrive off a loss — Xiong to Angela Hill in May, Polastri to Talita Alencar in April.
Records & career stats
Xiong Jingnan Polastri
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.64 6.18
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 38% 59%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 7.62 5.18
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 75% 58%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 63% 60%
19-3-0
Record
14-6-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
China
Nationality
Brazil
38
Age
28
1.65 m
Height — Xiong Jingnan leads
1.57 m
160 cm
Reach
161 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
63%
Finish rateFinish % — Xiong Jingnan leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
60%
11
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Xiong Jingnan leads
6
1
Wins by submissionSub wins — Polastri leads
3
4.64
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Polastri leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.18
7.62
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Polastri leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.18
38%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Polastri leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
59%
75%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Xiong Jingnan leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
58%
09:03
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
12:31
The Block Bali
Team
CWB Fighter

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

AJ Devito

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiong Jingnan

Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO

Reverses his earlier lean after the weigh-ins and face-offs, citing Xiong Jingnan’s size, boxing and home-country setting.

“I'm gonna pick flip, man. I think Xiong Jingnan should be able to win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
The MMA Guru

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiong Jingnan · Dec

Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO

Picks Xiong Jingnan's size and experience to earn a decision.

“Jong Jingyang winning this one by decision. 30-27, 29-28.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
HopperMMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiong Jingnan · Dec

Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO

Picks Xiong Jingnan by decision.

“I'm going to go Jingnan by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiong Jingnan · Dec

Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO

Picks Xiong Jingnan to win on the scorecards.

“Jing Nan Jong picks up a decision victory.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Bedtime MMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Julia Polastri · Dec

Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO

Picks Julia Polastri by decision.

“I'm going to go with Julia to win by decision. 29-28.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
JakeGerberMMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Julia Polastri · Dec

Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO

Picks Julia Polastri by decision for her technical striking edge.

“Go with Julia Polastri. She's going to outpoint her and get it done on the cards.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
DFS By The Numbers

Current pick evidence

Picked: Julia Polastri

Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO

Picks Julia Polastri, contingent on her showing up to perform.

“I like Polastri to win. She should win as long as she shows up.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Half The Battle

Current pick evidence

Picked: Julia Polastri

Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO

Picks Julia Polastri for her pressure, output, and possible takedowns.

“I got Julia Pelri to come out here and beat the dog out of Jeang.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)

Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; AJ Devito Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; HopperMMA Miss; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Half The Battle Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Julia Polastri · Dec

Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO

Picks Julia Polastri by decision.

“I'm going to go with Julia to win by decision. 29-28.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Polastri · DecPolastri · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiong Jingnan

Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO

Reverses his earlier lean after the weigh-ins and face-offs, citing Xiong Jingnan’s size, boxing and home-country setting.

“I'm gonna pick flip, man. I think Xiong Jingnan should be able to win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Xiong · to winPolastri · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiong Jingnan · Dec

Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO

Picks Xiong Jingnan's size and experience to earn a decision.

“Jong Jingyang winning this one by decision. 30-27, 29-28.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Xiong · DecPolastri · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Julia Polastri · Dec

Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO

Picks Julia Polastri by decision for her technical striking edge.

“Go with Julia Polastri. She's going to outpoint her and get it done on the cards.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Polastri · DecPolastri · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers

Current pick evidence

Picked: Julia Polastri

Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO

Picks Julia Polastri, contingent on her showing up to perform.

“I like Polastri to win. She should win as long as she shows up.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Polastri · to winPolastri · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiong Jingnan · Dec

Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO

Picks Xiong Jingnan by decision.

“I'm going to go Jingnan by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Xiong · DecPolastri · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)

Current pick evidence

Picked: Xiong Jingnan · Dec

Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO

Picks Xiong Jingnan to win on the scorecards.

“Jing Nan Jong picks up a decision victory.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Xiong · DecPolastri · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle

Current pick evidence

Picked: Julia Polastri

Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO

Picks Julia Polastri for her pressure, output, and possible takedowns.

“I got Julia Pelri to come out here and beat the dog out of Jeang.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Polastri · to winPolastri · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called

4 of 8 called the winner.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Polastri · KO/TKO · R1

Closest probability Claude put 66% on Polastri.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
61% Jingnan
39% Polastri
PickJingnan · DecisionActualPolastri · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market underdogMissHistoric market underdog: UnderdogThe selected fighter had a lower market-implied chance of winning. This underdog call was a miss.Historic market underdog: underdog call, miss
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
34% Jingnan
66% Polastri
PickPolastri · DecisionActualPolastri · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
52% Jingnan
48% Polastri
PickJingnan · DecisionActualPolastri · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market underdogMissHistoric market underdog: UnderdogThe selected fighter had a lower market-implied chance of winning. This underdog call was a miss.Historic market underdog: underdog call, miss
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 24 Aug, 4 days before the fight

2 of 3 models pick Jingnan

ChatGPT and Gemini pick Jingnan; Claude picks Polastri.

Method mix differs most for Decision: 66% (Claude) to 80% (ChatGPT), a 14-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Jingnan by decision

    Win probability: Jingnan 61%, Polastri 39%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug

    Medium confidence
  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Polastri by decision

    Win probability: Jingnan 34%, Polastri 66%.

    claude-opus-5 · 24 Aug

    Medium confidence
  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Jingnan by decision

    Win probability: Jingnan 52%, Polastri 48%.

    gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug

    Low confidence

ChatGPT reads the fight as “Xiong Jingnan is the model pick by decision. The locked distribution gives the red corner a 61% overall win probability and assigns 80% of the total probability to a decision, making a judges’ result the clearest forecast.”

What to watch

  • The locked distribution gives Xiong a 61% overall win probability, compared with 39% for Polastri.
  • Decision accounts for 80% of the total probability, while all finish outcomes combine for 20%.
  • Xiong by decision is the largest single outcome at 50%, followed by Polastri by decision at 30%.

Swing factor

The main uncertainty is which fighter benefits if the bout reaches the judges, although the model favors Xiong in that scenario by 20 percentage points.

More detail3 areas differ

The models differ on winner, confidence, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———

ChatGPT

Pick

Jingnan by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Jingnan 61%, Polastri 39%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 15% overall: Jingnan 9%, Polastri 6%
Submission, 5% overall: Jingnan 2%, Polastri 3%
Decision, 80% overall: Jingnan 50%, Polastri 30%

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Xiong Jingnan is the model pick by decision. The locked distribution gives the red corner a 61% overall win probability and assigns 80% of the total probability to a decision, making a judges’ result the clearest forecast.

Keys to victory

  • The locked distribution gives Xiong a 61% overall win probability, compared with 39% for Polastri.
  • Decision accounts for 80% of the total probability, while all finish outcomes combine for 20%.
  • Xiong by decision is the largest single outcome at 50%, followed by Polastri by decision at 30%.

X-factor

The main uncertainty is which fighter benefits if the bout reaches the judges, although the model favors Xiong in that scenario by 20 percentage points.

gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Polastri by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Jingnan 34%, Polastri 66%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 28% overall: Jingnan 15%, Polastri 13%
Submission, 6% overall: Jingnan 2%, Polastri 4%
Decision, 66% overall: Jingnan 17%, Polastri 49%

How Claude sees the fight

Julia Polastri is the right side, but near fair value rather than a bargain. Xiong Jingnan's May 2026 loss to Angela Hill (30-27 x3, outlanded every round) is the template: volume and clinch pressure over three rounds is what a 38-year-old with three fights since Oct 2022 and a new 115 lb cut handles worst. Polastri wins striking-led fights and loses to out-workers and grapplers; Xiong is neither. The dog case is Xiong's real KO power (11 of 19 wins), the Shanghai crowd, and the chance the debut was a one-off. Most likely: Julia Polastri by decision.

Keys to victory

  • Hill template: Xiong Jingnan was shut out 30-27 x3 by volume and clinch pressure in May; Julia Polastri is a Muay Thai pressure striker at 57% accuracy
  • Age and activity: Xiong Jingnan is 38 with three fights since Oct 2022 and a second 115 lb cut on a 13-week turnaround; Julia Polastri is 28 and active
  • Grappling is a non-path for both: Julia Polastri has 5 UFC takedown attempts and 58% TDD, and Xiong Jingnan is not takedown-heavy, so pace decides

X-factor

Xiong Jingnan's boxing power is the equalizer: Julia Polastri has never been finished in the UFC but takes volume in exchanges, and one clean counter in Shanghai flips this instantly.

claude-opus-5 · 24 Aug46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Jingnan by decision

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Jingnan 52%, Polastri 48%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 20% overall: Jingnan 10%, Polastri 10%
Submission, 6% overall: Jingnan 1%, Polastri 5%
Decision, 74% overall: Jingnan 41%, Polastri 33%

How Gemini sees the fight

Xiong "The Panda" Jingnan faces Julia "Psycho" Polastri in a critical strawweight bout in Shanghai. Jingnan brings elite championship experience from ONE Championship and a heavy-handed boxing style, looking to rebound from her UFC debut loss. Polastri relies on aggressive Muay Thai and kicks. At 38 years old and adapting to the 115-pound limit, Jingnan's stamina could be tested, but her home-country advantage and technical striking give her a slight edge to outpoint Polastri in a competitive striking battle over three rounds.

Keys to victory

  • Xiong Jingnan's adaptation to the strict UFC 115 lbs limit and how it impacts her stamina at 38 years old against Julia Polastri.
  • The home-country advantage for Xiong Jingnan fighting in Shanghai against Julia Polastri.
  • The striking style clash between Xiong Jingnan's boxing and sanshou base and Julia Polastri's Muay Thai.

X-factor

How well Xiong Jingnan's cardio holds up under the strict 115-pound weight cut and against Julia Polastri's pace.

gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.