UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Julia Polastri defeats Xiong Jingnan by KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:06
Xiong Jingnan vs Polastri — Women's Strawweight · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Julia Polastri defeated Xiong Jingnan by KO (head kick) at 3:06 of Round 1
Prelims
- Primary sourceOfficial UFC source
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Xiong Jingnan
Eleven of Xiong's nineteen wins are knockouts, and she has fought seven five-round fights — more than anyone else on this card. At 38 she arrives off a decision loss to Angela Hill, with three defeats in twenty-two fights and only one of them ending early.
Case for Polastri
Polastri lands 6.22 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 5.18 doing it. Twelve of her twenty fights reached the judges — and so did all six of her defeats. Nobody has finished her, which is the single most relevant fact against a puncher.
What We Were Watching For
- Xiong has fought seven five-round fights. Nobody else on this card has fought more than three.
- All six of Polastri's defeats are decisions. Eleven of Xiong's nineteen wins are knockouts.
- Polastri lands 6.22 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 5.18; her 58% takedown defence is the softer number.
- Both arrive off a loss — Xiong to Angela Hill in May, Polastri to Talita Alencar in April.
Records & career stats
- 4.64 6.18
- 38% 59%
- 7.62 5.18
- 75% 58%
- 63% 60%
- 19-3-0
- Record
- 14-6-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- China
- Nationality
- Brazil
- 38
- Age
- 28
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 09:03
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 12:31
- The Block Bali
- Team
- CWB Fighter
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Performance filters use calls resolved before this event.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Xiong Jingnan
Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO
Reverses his earlier lean after the weigh-ins and face-offs, citing Xiong Jingnan’s size, boxing and home-country setting.
“I'm gonna pick flip, man. I think Xiong Jingnan should be able to win.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
- Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
- Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Xiong Jingnan · Dec
Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO
Picks Xiong Jingnan's size and experience to earn a decision.
“Jong Jingyang winning this one by decision. 30-27, 29-28.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
- Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
- Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Xiong Jingnan · Dec
Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO
Picks Xiong Jingnan by decision.
“I'm going to go Jingnan by decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
- Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
- Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
- Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Xiong Jingnan · Dec
Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO
Picks Xiong Jingnan to win on the scorecards.
“Jing Nan Jong picks up a decision victory.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
- Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
- Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Current pick evidence
Picked: Julia Polastri · Dec
Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO
Picks Julia Polastri by decision.
“I'm going to go with Julia to win by decision. 29-28.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
- Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
- Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
- Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
Current pick evidence
Picked: Julia Polastri · Dec
Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO
Picks Julia Polastri by decision for her technical striking edge.
“Go with Julia Polastri. She's going to outpoint her and get it done on the cards.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
- Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
- Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
- Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Julia Polastri
Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO
Picks Julia Polastri, contingent on her showing up to perform.
“I like Polastri to win. She should win as long as she shows up.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
- Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Julia Polastri
Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO
Picks Julia Polastri for her pressure, output, and possible takedowns.
“I got Julia Pelri to come out here and beat the dog out of Jeang.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
Analyst picks: Bedtime MMA Hit; AJ Devito Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; HopperMMA Miss; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Half The Battle Hit.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bedtime MMA
Bedtime MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Julia Polastri · Dec Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO Picks Julia Polastri by decision. “I'm going to go with Julia to win by decision. 29-28.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Polastri · Dec | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Picks Julia Polastri by decision. “I'm going to go with Julia to win by decision. 29-28.” Track record: winner called in 121 of 171 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
AJ Devito
AJ Devito
Current pick evidencePicked: Xiong Jingnan Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO Reverses his earlier lean after the weigh-ins and face-offs, citing Xiong Jingnan’s size, boxing and home-country setting. “I'm gonna pick flip, man. I think Xiong Jingnan should be able to win.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Xiong · to win | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Reverses his earlier lean after the weigh-ins and face-offs, citing Xiong Jingnan’s size, boxing and home-country setting. “I'm gonna pick flip, man. I think Xiong Jingnan should be able to win.” Track record: winner called in 165 of 237 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The MMA Guru
The MMA Guru
Current pick evidencePicked: Xiong Jingnan · Dec Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO Picks Xiong Jingnan's size and experience to earn a decision. “Jong Jingyang winning this one by decision. 30-27, 29-28.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Xiong · Dec | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Xiong Jingnan's size and experience to earn a decision. “Jong Jingyang winning this one by decision. 30-27, 29-28.” Track record: winner called in 203 of 308 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
JakeGerberMMA
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Julia Polastri · Dec Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO Picks Julia Polastri by decision for her technical striking edge. “Go with Julia Polastri. She's going to outpoint her and get it done on the cards.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Polastri · Dec | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Picks Julia Polastri by decision for her technical striking edge. “Go with Julia Polastri. She's going to outpoint her and get it done on the cards.” Track record: winner called in 83 of 127 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
DFS By The Numbers
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidencePicked: Julia Polastri Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO Picks Julia Polastri, contingent on her showing up to perform. “I like Polastri to win. She should win as long as she shows up.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Polastri · to win | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Picks Julia Polastri, contingent on her showing up to perform. “I like Polastri to win. She should win as long as she shows up.” Track record: winner called in 94 of 146 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
HopperMMA
HopperMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Xiong Jingnan · Dec Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO Picks Xiong Jingnan by decision. “I'm going to go Jingnan by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Xiong · Dec | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Xiong Jingnan by decision. “I'm going to go Jingnan by decision.” Track record: winner called in 77 of 121 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Current pick evidencePicked: Xiong Jingnan · Dec Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO Picks Xiong Jingnan to win on the scorecards. “Jing Nan Jong picks up a decision victory.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Xiong · Dec | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Xiong Jingnan to win on the scorecards. “Jing Nan Jong picks up a decision victory.”
Hear it — 14:33
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) on YouTube ↗
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)’s track record →
Track record: winner called in 41 of 69 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Half The Battle
Half The Battle
Current pick evidencePicked: Julia Polastri Fight result: Julia Polastri · KO/TKO Picks Julia Polastri for her pressure, output, and possible takedowns. “I got Julia Pelri to come out here and beat the dog out of Jeang.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Polastri · to win | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Picks Julia Polastri for her pressure, output, and possible takedowns. “I got Julia Pelri to come out here and beat the dog out of Jeang.” Track record: winner called in 55 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
4 of 8 called the winner.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Polastri · KO/TKO · R1
Closest probability Claude put 66% on Polastri.
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot
AI Predictions
Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 24 Aug, 4 days before the fight
2 of 3 models pick Jingnan
ChatGPT and Gemini pick Jingnan; Claude picks Polastri.
Method mix differs most for Decision: 66% (Claude) to 80% (ChatGPT), a 14-point range.
-
ChatGPT
47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Jingnan by decision
Win probability: Jingnan 61%, Polastri 39%.
Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score. -
Claude
46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
Pick Polastri by decision
Win probability: Jingnan 34%, Polastri 66%.
Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score. -
Gemini
50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
Pick Jingnan by decision
Win probability: Jingnan 52%, Polastri 48%.
Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
ChatGPT reads the fight as “Xiong Jingnan is the model pick by decision. The locked distribution gives the red corner a 61% overall win probability and assigns 80% of the total probability to a decision, making a judges’ result the clearest forecast.”
What to watch
- The locked distribution gives Xiong a 61% overall win probability, compared with 39% for Polastri.
- Decision accounts for 80% of the total probability, while all finish outcomes combine for 20%.
- Xiong by decision is the largest single outcome at 50%, followed by Polastri by decision at 30%.
Swing factor
The main uncertainty is which fighter benefits if the bout reaches the judges, although the model favors Xiong in that scenario by 20 percentage points.
More detail3 areas differ
The models differ on winner, confidence, probability distribution.
| Detail | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | |||
| Round | — | — | — |
| Detail | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | |||
| Round | — | — | — |
ChatGPT
Pick
Jingnan by decision
Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.Winner probability by method
How ChatGPT sees the fight
Xiong Jingnan is the model pick by decision. The locked distribution gives the red corner a 61% overall win probability and assigns 80% of the total probability to a decision, making a judges’ result the clearest forecast.
Keys to victory
- The locked distribution gives Xiong a 61% overall win probability, compared with 39% for Polastri.
- Decision accounts for 80% of the total probability, while all finish outcomes combine for 20%.
- Xiong by decision is the largest single outcome at 50%, followed by Polastri by decision at 30%.
X-factor
The main uncertainty is which fighter benefits if the bout reaches the judges, although the model favors Xiong in that scenario by 20 percentage points.
gpt-5.6-sol · 23 Aug47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Polastri by decision
Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.Winner probability by method
How Claude sees the fight
Julia Polastri is the right side, but near fair value rather than a bargain. Xiong Jingnan's May 2026 loss to Angela Hill (30-27 x3, outlanded every round) is the template: volume and clinch pressure over three rounds is what a 38-year-old with three fights since Oct 2022 and a new 115 lb cut handles worst. Polastri wins striking-led fights and loses to out-workers and grapplers; Xiong is neither. The dog case is Xiong's real KO power (11 of 19 wins), the Shanghai crowd, and the chance the debut was a one-off. Most likely: Julia Polastri by decision.
Keys to victory
- Hill template: Xiong Jingnan was shut out 30-27 x3 by volume and clinch pressure in May; Julia Polastri is a Muay Thai pressure striker at 57% accuracy
- Age and activity: Xiong Jingnan is 38 with three fights since Oct 2022 and a second 115 lb cut on a 13-week turnaround; Julia Polastri is 28 and active
- Grappling is a non-path for both: Julia Polastri has 5 UFC takedown attempts and 58% TDD, and Xiong Jingnan is not takedown-heavy, so pace decides
X-factor
Xiong Jingnan's boxing power is the equalizer: Julia Polastri has never been finished in the UFC but takes volume in exchanges, and one clean counter in Shanghai flips this instantly.
claude-opus-5 · 24 Aug46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Jingnan by decision
Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.Winner probability by method
How Gemini sees the fight
Xiong "The Panda" Jingnan faces Julia "Psycho" Polastri in a critical strawweight bout in Shanghai. Jingnan brings elite championship experience from ONE Championship and a heavy-handed boxing style, looking to rebound from her UFC debut loss. Polastri relies on aggressive Muay Thai and kicks. At 38 years old and adapting to the 115-pound limit, Jingnan's stamina could be tested, but her home-country advantage and technical striking give her a slight edge to outpoint Polastri in a competitive striking battle over three rounds.
Keys to victory
- Xiong Jingnan's adaptation to the strict UFC 115 lbs limit and how it impacts her stamina at 38 years old against Julia Polastri.
- The home-country advantage for Xiong Jingnan fighting in Shanghai against Julia Polastri.
- The striking style clash between Xiong Jingnan's boxing and sanshou base and Julia Polastri's Muay Thai.
X-factor
How well Xiong Jingnan's cardio holds up under the strict 115-pound weight cut and against Julia Polastri's pace.
gemini-3.1-pro-high · 24 Aug50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
No market odds are available for this fight yet.










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