DFS By The Numbers offers UFC betting and daily fantasy sports content, including statistical models.
Scorecard
Called 94 of 146 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
- Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows: read where a line sits alongside its denominator. Winner covers every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss
94 of 146 — 64% now, from 0% at their first scored card. The first 1 point is drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
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Method
59% 48 of 82 correct winners that named a method
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Round
36% 14 of 39 correct winners that named a round
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Underdog
35% 7 of 20 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first. One mark per resolved call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Allen vs. Duncan 1 hit · 3 miss
- Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos 6 hit · 5 miss
- Crypto.com UFC 331 6 hit · 6 miss
- Silva vs. Delgado 8 hit · 3 miss
- Hooker vs. Parnasse 8 hit · 4 miss
- Nurmagomedov vs. Song 9 hit · 3 miss
- UFC 330 5 hit · 6 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 8 hit · 2 miss
- Medic vs. Rodriguez 5 hit · 3 miss
- Ankalaev vs. Guskov 7 hit · 2 miss
- Du Plessis vs. Usman 7 hit · 3 miss
- UFC 329 9 hit · 2 miss
- UFC Baku 5 hit · 3 miss
- Kape vs Horiguchi 0 hit · 1 miss
- UFC Freedom 250 3 hit · 0 miss
- UFC 328 7 hit · 5 miss
- UFC 327 0 hit · 1 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Buckley vs. Malott
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anheliger vs Koslow | Koslow · Sub · R1 | Upcoming | Koslow | Sub | R1 |
| Barriault vs Daukaus * The source says “club and sub”; the winner and round are clear, but the finish type is not recorded. | Daukaus · to win | Upcoming | Daukaus | Not called | R1 |
| Blanchfield vs Jasudavicius | Blanchfield · Dec | Upcoming | Blanchfield | Dec | Not called |
| Boser vs Diniz | Diniz · KO/TKO · R2 | Upcoming | Diniz | KO/TKO | R2 |
| Buckley vs Malott | Malott · KO/TKO | Upcoming | Malott | KO/TKO | Not called |
| Cerminara vs Stiller | Cerminara · Dec | Upcoming | Cerminara | Dec | Not called |
| Chovancek vs You * Decision is his stated lean; he also mentions possible knockout or club-and-sub outcomes. | Chovancek · Dec | Upcoming | Chovancek | Dec | Not called |
| Croden vs Chandler | Croden · KO/TKO · R2 | Upcoming | Croden | KO/TKO | R2 |
| Jourdain vs Cuamba | Jourdain · Dec | Upcoming | Jourdain | Dec | Not called |
| Leblanc vs Galanti | Galanti · Sub · R1 | Upcoming | Galanti | Sub | R1 |
| Mahjoub vs Faglier * He explicitly says he does not recommend betting on the fight, while still making a pick for the prediction show. | Faglier · KO/TKO · R2 | Upcoming | Faglier | KO/TKO | R2 |
| Nallo vs Landwehr | Nallo · KO/TKO · R1 | Upcoming | Nallo | KO/TKO | R1 |
| Nelson vs Perez | Perez · KO/TKO · R1 | Upcoming | Perez | KO/TKO | R1 |
Allen vs. Duncan
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Franco · to win | Ribeiro · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Selects Felipe Franco as a confident winner, citing his grappling and ground-and-pound path. The opponent name is garbled in the captions; the registered card identifies the matchup as Brendson Ribeiro, and no opponent spelling is inferred into the quote. “So yeah, I'm going Franco here. I think he wins.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Harris · to win | Frye Jr. · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Selects RJ Harris as a confident winner. He prefers an inside-the-distance wager in rounds one or two but says either a knockout or submission could happen, so no finish method or single round is recorded. “So I like the Harris inside the distance, Harris one, two, stuff like that. But I like Harris to get it done this week as the first confident pick.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Godinez · to win | Godinez · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Selects Loopy Godinez as his fourth and final confident pick. Captions garble both fighter names in places; the registered bout context identifies Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza. The decision prop is discussed only as a possible wager, not a method prediction. “yeah I'm going Loopy Godz here as the fourth and final confident pick” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.4% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.9%. Wellmaker · KO/TKO | Tanzilovi · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Selects Malcolm Wellmaker and says probably by knockout. He also considers the under 2.5 rounds the better wager and notes the opponent has finish paths, so no round is assigned. “But yeah, give me Wmaker here. Probably by knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 63.7%. Machado · Dec | Machado · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Valesca Machado by decision. “I am going to go with Tina Black to win this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.7% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Bellato · Dec | Edwards · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Rodolfo Bellato by decision. “Bolato probably by a greasy greasy decision.” | |||||
| Castaneda · Dec | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks John Castaneda by decision. “I'll pick him to win this fight and win this fight by decision.” | |||||
| Jauregui · Dec | Jauregui · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Yazmin Jauregui by decision. “I'll go Herggi by decision.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.7%. Perez · Dec | Perez · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Ailin Perez by decision. “I am going to go Eileen Perez to win this fight and win this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.7% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Brener · Dec | Brener · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Elvis Brener by decision. “I am going to go Brener to win this fight by decision.” | |||||
| Nakamura · KO/TKO · R1 | Hiestand · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Ren Nakamura by first-round knockout. “Nakamura by first round knockout.” | |||||
| Jackson · KO/TKO · R2 | Jackson · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Montel Jackson by second-round knockout. “I'm going Montel Jackson by knockout here in the second round.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · KO/TKO · R1 | Akylbek · DQ R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli by first-round knockout. “I am going Os Manley to win this fight by first round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.7% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · Dec | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Raoni Barcelos by decision. “I'm going to go Barcelos to win this fight by decision, pulling off the upset there.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 43.3% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
| Vieira · Sub · R1 | Vieira · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Picks Rual Vieira by first-round submission. “I am going to take Vieira to win this fight by first round sub.” | |||||
Crypto.com UFC 331
Van vs. Pantoja 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Yoo · Dec | Aswell Jr. · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Transcript-reviewed DFS By The Numbers selection. “I'm going to take juicing probably by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 78.5%. Brito · Sub · R1 | Brito · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
Transcript-reviewed DFS By The Numbers selection. “I'm going to say he gets to the back and I'm going to say he subs him. We'll say first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 91.5%. Steveson · KO/TKO · R1 | Sharaf · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Transcript-reviewed DFS By The Numbers selection. “I'm going Gable in round one.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 91.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Despaigne · KO/TKO · R1 | Despaigne · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Transcript-reviewed DFS By The Numbers selection. “I'll take him to win this fight by first round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Shahbazyan · KO/TKO · R1 | Shahbazyan · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Transcript-reviewed DFS By The Numbers selection. “I'm going to take Edmond to win this fight by first round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. O'Neill · Sub · R3 | O'Neill · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Transcript-reviewed DFS By The Numbers selection. “O'Neal is going to finish Mara in the third round by submission.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Gandra · KO/TKO · R1 | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Transcript-reviewed DFS By The Numbers selection. “I'll take him to win this fight by first round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Jourdain · Dec | Vera · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Transcript-reviewed DFS By The Numbers selection. “I gotta go Jordane by default and I think it's probably Jordane by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Baraniewski · KO/TKO · R1 | Menifield · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Transcript-reviewed DFS By The Numbers selection. “I'm going to Evo Barninski to win this fight by first round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.9%. Choi · KO/TKO · R2 | Pitbull · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Transcript-reviewed DFS By The Numbers selection. “I'm going Duho Choy to go out there and finish Mauricio Pit Bull in the second round by knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.8%. Tsarukyan · Sub · R2 | Tsarukyan · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Transcript-reviewed DFS By The Numbers selection. “I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Pantoja · Sub · R2 | Van · Dec R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Transcript-reviewed DFS By The Numbers selection. “I'm going to go Pantoia to get that sub in the second round.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
Silva vs. Delgado
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 72.7% 8 3
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 3
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Tarin · Dec | Tarin · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Regina Tarin by decision. “I'll take her to win this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rongzhu · Dec | Rongzhu · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Rongzhu by decision. “I'm going to go with Rongzhu to win this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Gantt · Dec | Gantt · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Tommy Gantt by decision. “I'm going to say he wins this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · KO/TKO · R1 | Bahamondes · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by knockout in round 1. “Give me Ignacio Bahamondes by first-round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Chairez · Sub · R2 | Elliott · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Edgar Chairez by submission in round 2. “I think Chairez wins. I'll take him by second-round submission.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 78.5%. Martinez · Dec | Martinez · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks David Martinez by decision. “I'm going David Martinez to win this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO · R2 | Blaydes · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by knockout in round 2. “Give me Waldo Cortes Acosta by second-round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Fiorot · Dec | Grasso · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Manon Fiorot by decision. “I'm going to go with Manon Fiorot to win this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. McMillen · KO/TKO · R2 | McMillen · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Picks Tommy McMillen by knockout in round 2. “Give me Tommy McMillen by second-round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Moreno · Dec | Moreno · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Brandon Moreno by decision. “I'm going to go Moreno here by decision.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · KO/TKO · R2 | Silva · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Picks Jean Silva by knockout in round 2. “I'll take Jean Silva to win this fight by second round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Hooker vs. Parnasse
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 8 4
- Method Accuracy 62.5% 5 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 44.5%. Montenegro · Dec | Benouaich · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Argues Montenegro hits harder and carries more grappling upside, enough to outweigh Benouaich's home crowd. “I'll go Sofia for the upset in this one to win by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 44.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.6%. Campbell · Dec | Campbell · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Expects Campbell's wrestling and ground-and-pound to control Peek, whose takedown defence he calls a major hole. “give me Kurtis Campbell to win. Kurtis Campbell to win this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.6% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Lima · Dec | Lima · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Frames it as grappler against striker and gives Lima more paths to win than a Charriere who lets fights slip. “go Felipe Lima to win this fight. I'll take Felipe Lima to win this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Syguła · Dec | Cornolle · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Questions Cornolle being favoured coming off a shoulder injury, and backs Syguła's youth and striking volume. “I'm picking Sigula by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Donchenko · Dec | Donchenko · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Rates Donchenko's striking volume and body work higher, and doubts Soriano's cardio if the wrestling does not pay off. “going to go Donchenko here. I'll take him to win this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.4% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Duclos · KO/TKO · R2 | Duclos · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Impressed by Duclos' power, kicks and clinch work, and expects Dias' cardio to fade as the fight extends. “Duclo to win by second round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 51.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 80.8%. Parnasse · KO/TKO · R3 | Parnasse · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Sees Parnasse as the complete package in his athletic prime against an ageing, frequently finished Hooker. “Give me Give me Saladin Parnasse to win this fight. I'll take him this to win this fight by third round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.3%. Keita · Dec | Keita · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Expects Keita's forward pressure to exploit a low-volume, back-footed Naimov. “Keita to win this fight by decision, pressure, land big shots, outwork Naimov, and I'll win this fight on the scorecards.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.3% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.1%. Page · Dec | Page · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Doubts Ruziboev can close distance on Page's defence, leaving a low-action decision. “I'll go page to win a boring decision here.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Pinto · Dec | Pinto · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Sees Pinto as younger, faster and the better striker against a defensively loose Spann. “I'll go Mario Pinto to win this fight and win it by decision here.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Sy · Dec | Bukauskas · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Expects Sy to simply do more over fifteen minutes than a low-output Bukauskas. “I'll take Omar Sy to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.1%. Ziam · Dec | Sola · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Expects Sola's cardio to fade after the first round while Ziam's cleaner defence and grappling take over. “decision. So, give me Far as I'm to win and win by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 75.0% 9 3
- Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Asakura · KO/TKO | Asakura · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Kai Asakura by knockout but allows either of the opening two rounds. “I think Asakura wins by knockout, KO one, two.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Lima · Sub | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Andre Lima by submission as a live plus-money bet. “I took a shot on Lima by submission. Lima by submission plus 400.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Hasan · to win | Hasan · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Bilal Hasan while reserving the exact finish-or-decision outcome. “Hasan should get it done.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Polastri · to win | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Julia Polastri, contingent on her showing up to perform. “I like Polastri to win. She should win as long as she shows up.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Lui · Sub | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Makes Lawrence Lui by submission the featured bet. “For the best bet show, I'll go Lawrence Lui by submission at plus 400.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · to win | Song · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Umar Nurmagomedov without committing to a finish or decision. “I think Umar gets it done.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Sumudaerji · Dec | Sumudaerji · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Sumudaerji by decision after flipping the selection. “I'm flipping my pick to Sumudaerji. If Sumudaerji wins, I think it's by decision and that's my pick.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 66.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Tsuruya · to win | Tsuruya · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Rei Tsuruya and expects an early finish without committing to one exact outcome. “I think it's Tsuruya here. I think it's done in rounds one or rounds two.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Liu · KO/TKO · R1 | Liu · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Liu Ce to knock out Levi Rodrigues Jr. early, citing Ce's toughness, length and power in a likely trading fight. “So, give me C. Louie to win this fight and win it by first round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Jenkins · Dec | Woodson · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Jack Jenkins by decision, noting routes through leg kicks, power, and grappling. “I'm going to take Jack Jenkins for the upset.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 43.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Nelson · to win | Nelson · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Cam Nelson on the strength of his hands and power against Ding Meng's defence. “I'm actually going to take Cam Nelson.” | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Gomes · Dec | Gomes · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Denise Gomes by decision as the younger, improving fighter with power and grappling routes. “I'm going to take Denise Gomes for the upset.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · Sub · R3 | Wells · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Expects Orolbai's strength and grappling to wear Wells down before a late submission; flags Wells's takedown defense and cardio. “We'll go My Titty Back Oral Boy to win this fight by third round submission.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Gore · Sub · R2 | Gore · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Expects a competitive opening before a sloppy Luque takedown lets Gore catch a guillotine. “I think Tan Gore is going to win this fight by Guillotine. I'm taking the second round submission here for Trayon Gore.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Fernando · Dec | Fernando · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Rates Fernando as the better all-round fighter, especially at range and to the body, with more proven competition. “I'm going Fernando here. Give me Fernando to win this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Brahimaj · Sub · R1 | Magny · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Sees Brahimaj's early submission threat as the path before his cardio becomes a factor. “I'm going Rome here to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by first round submission.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Johnson · KO/TKO · R1 | Johnson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
After correcting an earlier captioned slip, explicitly settles on Johnson by first-round knockout. “Give me Dante Johnson to win this fight by first round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 48.5%. Fernandes · KO/TKO · R2 | Turner · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Fernandes's leg kicks and durability against Turner's cardio and recent finishing losses. “make it tough on Turner [snorts] and um potentially knock him out. So, I'm going potentially knock him out. So, I'm going Fernandez here. I'm going to take Fernandez here. I'm going to take Fernandez to win this fight by second Fernandez to win this fight by second round knockout. I think somebody's round knockout. I think somebody's getting served here. I see why they put” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 48.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · Dec | Njokuani · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Álvarez as more reliable under adversity and ultimately selects a decision despite acknowledging multiple methods are possible. “Give me Alvarez to win. I'll take Alvarez to win by decision in this one.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO · R2 | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Abdul-Malik's athleticism and striking over Stoltzfus's defense, while noting concern over Abdul-Malik's urgency. “I'm going to go Maner to win this fight. I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Ribovics · KO/TKO · R1 | Ribovics · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Expects Ribovics's pressure and chin to exploit Barboza's declining durability. “give me Rivix to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by first round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Dern · Dec | Dern · Dec R5 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Gives Dern a pronounced striking and grappling edge, while allowing that several methods are possible. “I'm going to take Dur to win this fight. I'll say by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 26.5%. Machado Garry · Dec | Makhachev · Dec R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Garry a live major underdog based on his range, striking, takedown defense and ability to stand back up. “So yeah, I'm going to go with Ian Gary to win this fight by by close decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 26.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 80.0% 8 2
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Gamrot · Dec | Salkilld · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Gamrot to win a decision. “I'll take Gamrot to win by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · KO/TKO · R1 | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Wants Ferreira by first-round knockout specifically. “I'm going Ferreira here. I'm going to take Ferreira to win this fight by first round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. del Valle · KO/TKO · R1 | del Valle · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Calls this the easiest matchup on the card for the favourite and wants the first-round knockout specifically. “So, yeah, I'm going to Alva here. If it's anything other than a Delva KO1, I mean Delva should probably get arrested for dropping the ball this bad.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Miller · Dec | Miller · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Miller but expects it to go to the scorecards rather than a finish. “I'm going Miller. I'm going to take Miller to win this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Thainara · Dec | Thainara · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes Thainara on the scorecards. “Give me Viana. I'll take Viana to win this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · Dec | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Sutherland the rightful favourite and takes him by decision. “To win probably a greasy, horrible decision. So, give me Louis Sutherland to win.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Nurgozhay · KO/TKO · R1 | Nurgozhay · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Wants Nurgozhay by first-round knockout. “So, give me Nuergozie. I'll take him to win by first round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO · R2 | Asplund · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Takes Asplund by second-round knockout. “Give me Steven Asplin to win this fight by second round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Sousa · KO/TKO · R2 | Sousa · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Takes Sousa by second-round knockout. “He goes out there and knocks out Richie Miranda. We'll say second round knockout for Manel Sousa.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Miller · Sub · R1 | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Takes Miller by first-round submission. “I'll take her to win this fight by first round submission.” | |||||
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 5 3
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Medić · KO/TKO · R1 | Medić · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Calls Medic a 100%-finish-rate killer with dynamite in his hands, and says Rodriguez at almost 40 has too much tread on the tires, pointing to him being badly hurt by a compromised Kevin Holland. “think he's going to get knocked out in the first round. This isn't prison. Um the first round. This isn't prison. Um this is Erceg Erceg Medić. So I'm I'm this is Erceg Erceg Medić. So I'm I'm going Erceg Medić to win this fight. going Erceg Medić to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by first I'll take him to win this fight by first round KO. And there we have it, guys. 14 round KO. And there we have it, guys. 14 fights for UFC Belgrade. It was a grind fights for UFC Belgrade. It w” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · Dec | Stirling · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Not in love with Stirling and criticises his fight IQ against Cutelaba, but the 15-year age gap, higher volume, speed, cardio and takedown defence beat a 43-year-old, damaged Blachowicz. “probably leaning the other way potentially, but um yeah, as of now, 15 potentially, but um yeah, as of now, 15 years younger, you I think you got to go years younger, you I think you got to go Sterling here. I'll go Sterling to win Sterling here. I'll go Sterling to win this fight by decision. Blachowicz still this fight by decision. Blachowicz still at 43 is is super tough. So Sterling and at 43 is is super tough. So Sterling and Sterling by decision. Sterling by decision. All right, next we go” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Rakić · Dec | Rakić · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Frames it as the battle of who is least washed — Rakic has not won in five years, but he is the more skilled striker with better takedown defence against a Tybura who looks horrible. “Let me just pick apart this slow old man for for 15 minutes and then get a dub." for for 15 minutes and then get a dub." And I kind of think that's what's going And I kind of think that's what's going to happen. So, I'm going to go on to happen. So, I'm going to go on Aleksandar Rakic to win by decision. Aleksandar Rakic to win by decision. Up next, we got Robert Whittaker Up next, we got Robert Whittaker going against Duško Todorović. We got going against Duško Todorović. We got Valentine -130.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Todorović · KO/TKO · R2 | Valentin · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes the underdog: says Valentin has poor striking defence, roughly 50% takedown defence and looks bad off his back, while Todorovic is the more skilled fighter whose only real flaw is his chin. “and get a TKO. But yeah, I mean, I think somebody's probably getting served. I somebody's probably getting served. I think that somebody's going to be think that somebody's going to be Valentin. Give me Dusko Todorovic to win Valentin. Give me Dusko Todorovic to win this fight by second round TKO. this fight by second round TKO. Let's go. It's going to It's going to be Let's go. It's going to It's going to be good. We got Vlasenko Chepko going good. We got Vlasenko Chepko going against Gilbert U” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Čepo · KO/TKO · R1 | Urbina · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Warns that Cepo has one of the worst ground games he has seen and that Urbina genuinely has a grappling path, but rates Urbina as chinny with horrible fight IQ. “rats in a shoe. I think these guys are going to swing dicks. Chepo, yeah, I going to swing dicks. Chepo, yeah, I think he's going to get that knockout. think he's going to get that knockout. So, give me Chepo to win. Chepo to win So, give me Chepo to win. Chepo to win by first round KO. by first round KO. And then we get to the co-main event, we And then we get to the co-main event, we have Navajo Sterling going against Jan have Navajo Sterling going against Jan Błachowicz. Błachowicz. Um Um who” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · KO/TKO · R2 | Oliveira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Describes Oliveira as terrifying and impossible to take down, marching opponents down and breaking them, while Elliott is on back-to-back losses and has been finished repeatedly. “Elliott's been subbed once, but I think he's going to get knocked out again he's going to get knocked out again here. I mean, I give me a Michael here. I mean, I give me a Michael Oliveira. Give me a Michael Oliveira by Oliveira. Give me a Michael Oliveira by brutal brutal brutal brutal brutal second round knockout. brutal second round knockout. Up [snorts] next we have Nina Milosevic Up [snorts] next we have Nina Milosevic going against Hailey Cowan. going against Hailey Cowan. We got Milosevic” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Klein · Sub · R2 | Musayev · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Says Klein is younger, more durable and better everywhere, while Musayev is 36-plus with 30 fights and waning durability, and predicts Klein finally uses the grappling in his back pocket. “Could see a club and sub there. So, I think there's a lot of ways that Klein think there's a lot of ways that Klein wins this fight. So, I'm going to go wins this fight. So, I'm going to go Ludovit Klein to win and I'll take him Ludovit Klein to win and I'll take him to win this fight actually by to win this fight actually by submission. I'll say he gets his first submission. I'll say he gets his first submission submission in like almost 10 years. I'm going to in like almost 10 years. I'm going” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Grad · Dec | Grad · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
His least favourite fight on the card. Grad is a BJJ black belt who throws more volume, lands the bigger shots and can mix in takedowns, so he takes Grad on activity rather than a finish. “activity. So, yeah, I got to go Grad here, but it's not a fight I'm running here, but it's not a fight I'm running to the window for by any means. I'm to the window for by any means. I'm going to go Bogdan Grad to win this going to go Bogdan Grad to win this fight. fight. And win this fight by decision. And win this fight by decision. All right, next we got Ludovit Klein All right, next we got Ludovit Klein going against Tofiq Musayev. We got going against Tofiq Musayev. We got Ludovit Klein min” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Method Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Round Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erceg · Dec | Temirov · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Erceg as the better minute-winner through striking, grappling and cardio if he avoids Temirov's early power. “favorite in hindsight. But I'm going to go with Ersk here. I think he's even the” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Patterson · KO/TKO · R1 | Patterson · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Expects Patterson's power to catch the forward-moving Ponzinibbio for a first-round knockout. “getting finished in the first round. So, give me Sam Patterson to win. I'll take” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Kuniev · Dec | Kuniev · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Backs Kuniev's cardio, volume and control of where the fight takes place over three rounds. “volume. RZON's going to dictate where this fight takes place. So, I'm going RZ” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Dulatov vs Turman | Dulatov · KO/TKO · R1 | Upcoming | Dulatov | KO/TKO | R1 |
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Sola · KO/TKO · R3 | Sola · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Takes Sola's cardio and pressure to break Bonfim down for a late knockout. “I'm taking Axel Solola to give Bonfam his seventh finish loss. I'll take Axel Solo to win this fight by third round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Walker · Sub · R1 | Walker · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Calls Walker's familiar heel-hook route for a first-round submission. “heavyweights if that in the division. So yeah, give me Valter Walker. I'll say he” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Zaynukov · Dec | Zaynukov · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Backs Zaynukov's broader striking and grappling tools to carry a decision over the durable Rzepecki. “the more skilled fighter in general. So, I like Maggman Zionov, aka Chonko, aka” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Aliev · Dec | Aliev · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes Aliev to bank takedowns and control against Davis over three rounds. “win it how he wins fights, which would be by decision. So give me the rolly” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Jacoby · KO/TKO · R1 | Saidov · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Jacoby's higher-level experience, kickboxing, kicks, volume and cardio over Saidov's puncher's chance. “you got to pick Jacobe. So yeah, I'm going Dustin Jacobe to win this fight.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 84.5%. Hussein · Sub · R2 | Hussein · Sub R3 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Backs Hussein's power, wrestling and grappling against a 38-year-old Gibson he sees as hittable, slowing down and prone to ground mistakes. “make mistakes on the ground. So, I like Abdul Hussein to win this fight. I'm” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 84.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Du Plessis vs. Usman
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 7 3
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Barbosa · to win | Barbosa · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Barbosa to use her physical grappling edge against the short-notice newcomer. “going Donnie Barbosa to win this fight. I'm going to take her to win this fight” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 83.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 44.5%. Delgado · to win | Delgado · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Leans Delgado because his size and striking should offset Bashi's grappling path. “here. You know, there is a path for Bashy with the grappling, but I'm going” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 44.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · to win | Duncan · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Duncan on durability and finishing upside against the accumulated damage on Cannonier. “Larry Duncan to win. I'll take him to win by second round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Coria · to win | Coria · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Rates Coria as a clear level above Nicoll in pressure, output and wrestling resistance. “Olden Korea here. I think it's a pretty easy match up for him. It's his easiest” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 88.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.9%. Du Plessis · to win | Du Plessis · Dec R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Backs Du Plessis to produce the bigger striking moments and doubts Usman can sustain control. “it looked awful in the Shawn Brady fight. It looked awful against Usman. We” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 50.5%. Hines · to win | Harris · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Hines on his UFC experience, cardio and more reliable all-around game. “is bad. I'm going Hines. I'll say Hines by knockout, but I will not be putting” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 50.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.2%. Hooper · to win | Hooper · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Hooper if he uses the grappling advantage rather than lingering in striking exchanges. “And I'm going with the minus300 favorite just because the path is so clear and so just because the path is so clear and so there. But I also have zero trust in the there. But I also have zero trust in the guy. And I will probably I'm not bad. guy. And I will probably I'm not bad. I'm not never laying minus 300 on Chase I'm not never laying minus 300 on Chase Hooper. But [snorts]” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.2% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 35.1%. Montes · to win | McMillen · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Montes because one grappling exchange can expose his proven front-choke game. “So, I'm going to go Montes by sub here. Um, that's his win condition. That's how” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 35.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Kline · to win | Kline · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Kline as the stronger all-around prospect, particularly in the striking exchanges. “you know, and I'm I'm going Klein here. Klein is somebody I've had circled for a” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rodrigues Jr. · to win | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Rodrigues based on the more convincing striking, power and cardio from the regional tape. “going to take Rodriguez to win this fight, and I'm going to take him to win” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 81.8% 9 2
- Method Accuracy 88.9% 8 1
- Round Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
- Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Cortez · Dec | Wang · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Backs Cortez to win the grappling exchanges. He argues Wang Cong is most vulnerable on the mat, while Cortez can close distance, get takedowns and bank enough control time to take a decision. “Give me Cortez. Cortez by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 46.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Whittaker · KO/TKO · R2 | Whittaker · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Still trusts Whittaker as the sharper striker at 205. He thinks Krylov has moved away from the wrestling that made him dangerous and now gives Whittaker enough clean striking looks to finish him in round two. “I'm going to take Whittaker to win this fight by knockout. I think Whittaker can potentially put it on him and he'll land something big and get him out of there in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · Dec | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Riley because his shots should be the more damaging and eye-catching work. He respects Kamaka's toughness and expects him to survive all three rounds, but not to outscore Riley's power. “I'm going Luke Riley. I'll go damage-based, power-based decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 89.5%. Steveson · KO/TKO · R1 | Steveson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Views Ellison as badly overmatched once Steveson wrestles. He points to Ellison's defensive gaps and cardio concerns, expecting Steveson's Olympic-level grappling and top pressure to produce a fast stoppage. “Give me Gable Steveson to win by first round TKO. It's going to be brutal.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 89.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yanez · KO/TKO · R2 | Yanez · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Leans to Yanez because Garbrandt has become low-volume and chin-conscious. He expects Yanez's forward pressure, boxing volume and power to eventually find Cody in the second round. “I'm taking Adrian Yanez to knock the face tattoo off of Cody Garbrandt's face and with a second-round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 55.5%. Gandra · KO/TKO · R1 | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Gandra to force a short, violent fight. He expects Gandra to pressure forward, stuff Reese's takedown attempts and hurt him with power before the matchup can settle into a longer contest. “I'm going to go with Ryan Goncalves to win this fight by first [snorts] round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 55.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Pinas · KO/TKO · R1 | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Takes Pinas to be the first fighter to knock Almeida out. He acknowledges Almeida has never been stopped by strikes, but believes Pinas' power and aggression can break that trend early. “I'm going Damien Pinas by first round knockout. I think he's the first person to knock out Caesar Almeida.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · KO/TKO · R2 | Royval · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Trusts Kavanagh's boxing and power against Royval's hittable style. He thinks Royval's chin will be there to touch repeatedly, giving Kavanagh enough opportunities to land the finishing shot. “I'm going Lonnie Kavanagh to win. I'm going to take Lonnie Kavanagh to win this fight by second round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 68.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Bautista · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Calls it extremely close but sides with Bautista's wrestling, grappling and takedown threat. He likes Sandhagen's striking, yet thinks Bautista can bank enough control and blunt enough output to edge the cards. “I'm going to take Mario Bautista to win like a split decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Pimblett · Sub · R2 | Pimblett · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Backs Pimblett as the more durable and more opportunistic finisher in chaotic exchanges. He expects Saint Denis to leave necks or arms exposed while forcing grappling scrambles, giving Pimblett a second-round submission opening. “I'm going to go Paddy Pimblett. I think Paddy Pimblett actually has a couple ways to win this fight. But I'm going to take him to win this fight by submission.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 46.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R2 | Holloway · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Gives McGregor only a brief early puncher's chance after the long layoff. He expects Holloway's pressure and volume to take over quickly, wearing McGregor down and finishing him in round two. “I'm going Max Holloway. Second round KO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC Baku
Fiziev vs. Torres
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 5 3
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 5
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Matsumoto · Dec | Matsumoto · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
DFS prefers Matsumoto by decision behind pressure, volume, cardio, and wrestling looks if his chin holds up over fifteen minutes.
“I think Matsumoto is going to win this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Donchenko · KO/TKO · R2 | Donchenko · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
DFS expects Donchenko's elbows and danger in exchanges to catch Berggren and finish him in the second round.
“I'll go Danelo Donenko to win. I'll take the win by second round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Reyes · KO/TKO | Ofli · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
DFS takes Reyes by knockout, arguing Ofli is hittable and Reyes brings the more dangerous finishing threat on the feet. “So, I'm going to take Javier Reyes to win this fight. I'm going to take him to win this fight by knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Hasanov · Dec | Hasanov · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
DFS goes with Hasanov in a greasy decision, siding with the hometown fighter's control path despite respecting Nolan's power. “I'm going Hosenov here. Going with the hometown guy. I'm going to take him to win a greasy decision” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 48.5%. Magomedov · Sub | Magomedov · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
DFS ultimately picks Abus by submission, seeing his wrestling and grappling as the clearest route even though Oleksiejczuk's pressure makes the under interesting. “I'm going to pick Abus Magda by submission.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 48.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Sadykhov · KO/TKO · R2 | Camilo · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
DFS expects Sadykhov to push Camilo until the gas tank breaks, then knock him out in the second round in a fight-of-the-night style brawl. “So, give me Nazim Satakov to put up a fight of the night type performance and knock out Camello in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Magomedov · Dec | Magomedov · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
DFS takes Shara by decision in his lowest-confidence pick, mostly fading Pereira's current cardio, urgency and recent form. “but give me Sha Magame by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 50.5%. Torres · KO/TKO | Fiziev · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
DFS picks Torres, reading the career trajectories in opposite directions and expecting Torres to land the bigger shot while Fiziev is still vulnerable from recent damage. “I'm going to go Torres.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 50.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Kape vs Horiguchi
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 38.5%. Horiguchi · Dec | Kape · TKO (punches) R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Horiguchi to win the minutes and land more over the course of the fight without styling on Kape. “I'm going to take Kyoji Horiguchi to win this fight by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 38.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
UFC Freedom 250
Topuria vs. Gaethje
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 3
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 3
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Nickal · Dec | Nickal · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
DFS By The Numbers takes Nickal by decision. “I'm actually going to take Bo Nickal to win this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. O'Malley · Dec | O'Malley · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
DFS By The Numbers picks O'Malley by decision. “Sean O'Malley wins this fight. I'll say decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 47.5%. Gane · Dec | Gane · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
DFS By The Numbers picks Ciryl Gane by decision. “I'm going Ciryl Gane here. I'm going to take Ciryl Gane to actually win this fight by decisions.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 47.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
UFC 328
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Method Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Chimaev · Sub · R1 | Strickland · Dec R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
He expects Chimaev to wrestle immediately, force Strickland into defensive scrambles, and find the back before the fight can settle into a long striking match. “So I'm going Hamzat Chimaev. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round submission.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Taira · Sub · R2 | Van · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
He sees the fight turning on grappling control: if Taira can get his wrestling going and force back-take sequences, Van's boxing edge never has time to matter. “Give me Tatsuro Taira. I'll take Taira to win this fight by second round submission.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Volkov · Dec | Volkov · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
He thinks Cortes-Acosta needs a knockout to win, while Volkov's size, output and broader skill set carry the minutes if he stays disciplined. “Give me Volkov to win this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Green · Dec | Green · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
He gives Stephens some one-shot danger, but expects Green's cleaner minute-winning boxing and greater current activity to carry a points win. “For me it's Green and I think it's Green probably by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ochoa · Dec | Ochoa · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
DFS leans Ochoa by decision because his damage, bigger moments and offensive tools should outweigh Carpenter's takedown control. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Susurkaev · Dec | Susurkaev · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
DFS says this should be Susurkaev because he is better everywhere, but expects a decision if he coasts and plays around instead of forcing a finish. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Sabatini · Sub · R2 | Sabatini · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
DFS takes Sabatini by second-round submission, arguing Gomis has been put in bad grappling spots and Sabatini's neck attacks are much more dangerous. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Tulio · Dec | Kopylov · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
DFS takes Tulio by decision, citing volume, cage-pushing and grappling upside against a Kopylov who has struggled with pressure. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Gordon · Dec | Miller · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
DFS takes Gordon on the scorecards, saying he should be the minute-winner wherever the fight goes unless Miller lands an early finish. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Dawson · KO/TKO · R3 | Dawson · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
DFS leans Dawson, expecting takedowns and top control to exhaust Rebecki and potentially produce a late ground-and-pound finish. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 36.5%. Álvarez · KO/TKO | Amosov · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
DFS likes Alvarez as a live dog and picks the finish, arguing his improved takedown defense and knockout threat give him the higher-upside path. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 36.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 89.5%. Gautier · KO/TKO | Gautier · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
DFS expects Gautier to regain hype against an opponent who will come forward enough to be hit, with a finish the likeliest outcome. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 89.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 327
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Procházka · KO/TKO · R2 | Ulberg · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
He expects Ulberg to look competitive early, but sees Prochazka's pressure and durability flipping the fight once Jiri starts marching him down in round two. “I'll take Jiri Prochazka to win this fight by second round knockout.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
Videos
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