Raul Rosas Jr. defeats Raoni Barcelos by KO/TKO
Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos — Bantamweight · UFC Fight Night
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Barcelos used takedowns and clinch control to make the main event competitive through the middle rounds.
Rosas Jr. stayed attached through the late wrestling exchanges and found the decisive opening in the fifth round.
Rosas Jr. finished the fight with a slam at 1:38 of round five for the official knockout win.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos main card results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Rosas Jr.
Rosas Jr. is on a twelve-fight win streak since his only professional loss, and his last outing was a unanimous decision over Rob Font built on sixteen landed takedowns. His route in his first UFC Fight Night headliner is to repeat that wrestling-heavy formula, but his own 25% takedown defense cuts both ways against a fighter who has stopped 88% of takedowns attempted against him.
Case for Barcelos
Barcelos, a 39-year-old veteran with 22 professional wins, is riding his own five-fight win streak that includes handing Payton Talbott the first loss of his career in January 2025, and his tape shows 88% takedown defense. His route is to keep the fight standing, where he out-lands opponents at a 4.65-to-4.24 significant-strike differential, and make Rosas Jr. fight from range instead of on the mat.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Rosas Jr.'s takedown-heavy formula — sixteen landed against Rob Font in his last fight — works against Barcelos's 88% takedown defense.
- Whether Barcelos can be kept off his feet, given Rosas Jr.'s own takedown defense sits at just 25%.
- Whether a 39-year-old Barcelos can sustain five rounds against a 21-year-old opponent in his first UFC main event.
- Whether Rosas Jr.'s twelve-fight win streak or Barcelos's five-fight streak — which includes handing Payton Talbott his first career loss — survives the night.
Records & career stats
- 13-1-0
- Record
- 22-5-0
- —
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- United States
- Nationality
- Brazil
- 21
- Age
- 39
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- Source pending
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- 50%
- —
- Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
- 8
- 10:45
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 13:09
- Rosas Brothers MMA
- Team
- Top Brother
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (1)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Performance filters use calls resolved before this event.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raul Rosas Jr.
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Picks Raul Rosas Jr.
“I start to lean perhaps Rosas's way”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 4
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raul Rosas Jr.
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Drake Burden picks Raul Rosas Jr.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.9% 56 29
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raul Rosas Jr.
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Leans Raul Rosas Jr. because of his youth, athleticism, and speed, expecting striking to set up his grappling rather than a hard grappling pace from the start.
* This is explicitly described as an early lean; JakeGerberMMA says Barcelos could take over if Rosas slows down.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
- Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
- Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
- Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raul Rosas Jr. · Sub
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Written pick by Michael Iannone in the cited pre-event article.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 61.9% 13 8
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raul Rosas Jr.
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Guy Bruhn picks Raul Rosas Jr.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raul Rosas Jr.
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Adam Martin gives Raul Rosas Jr. the edge over Raoni Barcelos, citing Rosas Jr.'s 17-year age advantage.
“the fact that Rosas is 17 years younger should give him the edge he needs to win the biggest fight of his career.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
The Sports Scientist picks Raul Rosas Jr. by a late KO/TKO.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raul Rosas Jr. · Sub · Round 1
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Written pick by Chris Schweppe.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
- Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
- Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raul Rosas Jr. · Dec
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Greedo Plays MMA picks Raul Rosas Jr. by decision over Raoni Barcelos.
“I'm going to go Rosas to win this fight by decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 24 24
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
- Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raul Rosas Jr. · Sub
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Timothy Wheaton picks Raul Rosas Jr. by submission, with the article identifying the second or third round as the natural window without making a single round call.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog AccuracyNo qualifying picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raul Rosas Jr. · Dec
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Chris Cross leans Raul Rosas Jr. in a close fight, citing his development and expecting him to win a three-rounds-to-two decision over Raoni Barcelos.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 8 12
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
MMA Joey's early lean is Barcelos over Rosas Jr.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
- Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
- Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
- Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Picks Raoni Barcelos by decision.
“My prediction will be Haney Barcelos to win this fight via decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
- Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Picks Raoni Barcelos by decision.
“I'm going to go Barcelos to win this fight by decision, pulling off the upset there.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
- Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Angelo picks canonical Raoni Barcelos; Hani/Barcelos are the transcript's name rendering for the official main-event fighter.
“Hani Barcelos is the pick, guys. That's the breakdown.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
BetSam picks Raoni Barcelos to win, citing his stronger body of work and experience while acknowledging Raul Rosas Jr.'s grappling threat.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 61.5% 16 10
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Picks Raoni Barcelos by decision in the main event.
“Barcelos is going to win this fight. Win this fight by decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 60.6% 43 28
- Method Accuracy 63.9% 23 13
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Jon Litterine picks Raoni Barcelos.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 55.7% 54 43
- Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 5 15
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos · Sub · Round 4
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Fight Productions picks Raoni Barcelos by fourth-round submission over Raul Rosas Jr.
“Barcelos round four sub is the pick.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 54.8% 23 19
- Method Accuracy 73.9% 17 6
- Round Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 54.3% 19 16
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Cole Shelton picks Raoni Barcelos.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 52.5% 52 47
- Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 17.6% 3 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Shakiel Mahjouri picks Raoni Barcelos by split decision.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 52.5% 21 19
- Method Accuracy 56.3% 9 7
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 9
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Picks Raoni Barcelos.
“So honestly, I'm going to pick Ronnie Barcelos here as the underdog.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 15 14
- Method Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Written pick by Danny Howard in the cited pre-event article.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Picks Raoni Barcelos in the main event.
“I'm picking Ryan Barcelos.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 48.9% 22 23
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Experience and IQ advantage over Rosas Jr; resisting trap despite 62% public consensus.
“I'm going to go with Barcelos. I think the IQ and the experience is going to be too much.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Method Accuracy 41.7% 5 7
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 45.7% 16 19
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Brandon K picks Raoni Barcelos by decision over Raul Rosas Jr.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 43.5% 10 13
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 3
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Picks Raoni Barcelos.
“But give me Rayoni Barcel to win this fight by decision. I know I have knockout but I'm going to take him by decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Current pick evidence
Picked: Raoni Barcelos
Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO
Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 37.1% 13 22
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 11.1% 1 8
Analyst picks: Show Me The Money Hit; MMA JOEY Miss; Drake Burden Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; James Blissett Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; Michael Iannone Hit; BetSam Miss; Artem MMA Miss; Guy Bruhn Hit; Adam Martin Hit; Jon Litterine Miss; The Sports Scientist Hit; Fight Productions Miss; MikesMMAPicks Miss; Cole Shelton Miss; Shakiel Mahjouri Miss; TonyHasDiedMMA Miss; Chris Schweppe Hit; Greedo Plays MMA Hit; Danny Howard Miss; The MMA Yuda Miss; Uselyis Miss; Nick Kalikas Miss; Timothy Wheaton Hit; Brandon K Miss; Chris Cross Hit; Rparqs Miss; Chris White Miss.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Show Me The Money
Show Me The Money
Current pick evidencePicked: Raul Rosas Jr. Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Picks Raul Rosas Jr. “I start to lean perhaps Rosas's way” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 56.7%. Rosas Jr. · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Picks Raul Rosas Jr. “I start to lean perhaps Rosas's way” Track record builds as we verify their past calls. | ||||||
MMA JOEY
MMA JOEY
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO MMA Joey's early lean is Barcelos over Rosas Jr. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| MMA Joey's early lean is Barcelos over Rosas Jr. Track record: winner called in 71 of 107 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Drake Burden
Drake Burden
Current pick evidencePicked: Raul Rosas Jr. Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Drake Burden picks Raul Rosas Jr. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 56.7%. Rosas Jr. · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Drake Burden picks Raul Rosas Jr. Track record: winner called in 56 of 85 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
JakeGerberMMA
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Raul Rosas Jr. Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Leans Raul Rosas Jr. because of his youth, athleticism, and speed, expecting striking to set up his grappling rather than a hard grappling pace from the start. * This is explicitly described as an early lean; JakeGerberMMA says Barcelos could take over if Rosas slows down. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 56.7%. Rosas Jr. · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Leans Raul Rosas Jr. because of his youth, athleticism, and speed, expecting striking to set up his grappling rather than a hard grappling pace from the start. * This is explicitly described as an early lean; JakeGerberMMA says Barcelos could take over if Rosas slows down. Track record: winner called in 83 of 127 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
James Blissett
James Blissett
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Picks Raoni Barcelos by decision. “My prediction will be Haney Barcelos to win this fight via decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · Dec | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Raoni Barcelos by decision. “My prediction will be Haney Barcelos to win this fight via decision.” Track record: winner called in 35 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
DFS By The Numbers
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Picks Raoni Barcelos by decision. “I'm going to go Barcelos to win this fight by decision, pulling off the upset there.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · Dec | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Raoni Barcelos by decision. “I'm going to go Barcelos to win this fight by decision, pulling off the upset there.” Track record: winner called in 94 of 146 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
We Want Picks
We Want Picks
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Angelo picks canonical Raoni Barcelos; Hani/Barcelos are the transcript's name rendering for the official main-event fighter. “Hani Barcelos is the pick, guys. That's the breakdown.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Angelo picks canonical Raoni Barcelos; Hani/Barcelos are the transcript's name rendering for the official main-event fighter. “Hani Barcelos is the pick, guys. That's the breakdown.” Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Michael Iannone
Michael Iannone
Current pick evidencePicked: Raul Rosas Jr. · Sub Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Written pick by Michael Iannone in the cited pre-event article. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 56.7%. Rosas Jr. · Sub | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Written pick by Michael Iannone in the cited pre-event article. Track record: winner called in 13 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
BetSam
BetSam
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO BetSam picks Raoni Barcelos to win, citing his stronger body of work and experience while acknowledging Raul Rosas Jr.'s grappling threat. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| BetSam picks Raoni Barcelos to win, citing his stronger body of work and experience while acknowledging Raul Rosas Jr.'s grappling threat. Track record: winner called in 16 of 26 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Artem MMA
Artem MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Picks Raoni Barcelos by decision in the main event. “Barcelos is going to win this fight. Win this fight by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · Dec | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Raoni Barcelos by decision in the main event. “Barcelos is going to win this fight. Win this fight by decision.” Track record: winner called in 43 of 71 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Guy Bruhn
Guy Bruhn
Current pick evidencePicked: Raul Rosas Jr. Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Guy Bruhn picks Raul Rosas Jr. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 56.7%. Rosas Jr. · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Guy Bruhn picks Raul Rosas Jr. Track record: winner called in 7 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Adam Martin
Adam Martin
Current pick evidencePicked: Raul Rosas Jr. Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Adam Martin gives Raul Rosas Jr. the edge over Raoni Barcelos, citing Rosas Jr.'s 17-year age advantage. “the fact that Rosas is 17 years younger should give him the edge he needs to win the biggest fight of his career.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 56.7%. Rosas Jr. · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Adam Martin gives Raul Rosas Jr. the edge over Raoni Barcelos, citing Rosas Jr.'s 17-year age advantage. “the fact that Rosas is 17 years younger should give him the edge he needs to win the biggest fight of his career.” Track record: winner called in 23 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Jon Litterine picks Raoni Barcelos. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Jon Litterine picks Raoni Barcelos. Track record: winner called in 54 of 97 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The Sports Scientist
The Sports Scientist
Current pick evidencePicked: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO The Sports Scientist picks Raul Rosas Jr. by a late KO/TKO. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 56.7%. Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| The Sports Scientist picks Raul Rosas Jr. by a late KO/TKO. Track record: winner called in 5 of 9 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Fight Productions
Fight Productions
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos · Sub · Round 4 Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Fight Productions picks Raoni Barcelos by fourth-round submission over Raul Rosas Jr. “Barcelos round four sub is the pick.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · Sub · R4 | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Fight Productions picks Raoni Barcelos by fourth-round submission over Raul Rosas Jr. “Barcelos round four sub is the pick.” Track record: winner called in 23 of 42 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MikesMMAPicks
MikesMMAPicks
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article. Track record: winner called in 19 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Cole Shelton
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Cole Shelton picks Raoni Barcelos. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Cole Shelton picks Raoni Barcelos. Track record: winner called in 52 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Shakiel Mahjouri
Shakiel Mahjouri
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Shakiel Mahjouri picks Raoni Barcelos by split decision. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · Dec | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Shakiel Mahjouri picks Raoni Barcelos by split decision. Track record: winner called in 21 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
TonyHasDiedMMA
TonyHasDiedMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Picks Raoni Barcelos. “So honestly, I'm going to pick Ronnie Barcelos here as the underdog.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Raoni Barcelos. “So honestly, I'm going to pick Ronnie Barcelos here as the underdog.” Track record: winner called in 15 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Chris Schweppe
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidencePicked: Raul Rosas Jr. · Sub · Round 1 Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Written pick by Chris Schweppe. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 56.7%. Rosas Jr. · Sub · R1 | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
| Written pick by Chris Schweppe. Track record: winner called in 36 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Greedo Plays MMA
Greedo Plays MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Raul Rosas Jr. · Dec Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Greedo Plays MMA picks Raul Rosas Jr. by decision over Raoni Barcelos. “I'm going to go Rosas to win this fight by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 56.7%. Rosas Jr. · Dec | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Greedo Plays MMA picks Raul Rosas Jr. by decision over Raoni Barcelos. “I'm going to go Rosas to win this fight by decision.” Track record: winner called in 24 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Danny Howard
Danny Howard
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Written pick by Danny Howard in the cited pre-event article. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Written pick by Danny Howard in the cited pre-event article. Track record builds as we verify their past calls. | ||||||
The MMA Yuda
The MMA Yuda
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Picks Raoni Barcelos in the main event. “I'm picking Ryan Barcelos.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Raoni Barcelos in the main event. “I'm picking Ryan Barcelos.” Track record: winner called in 22 of 45 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Uselyis
Uselyis
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Experience and IQ advantage over Rosas Jr; resisting trap despite 62% public consensus. “I'm going to go with Barcelos. I think the IQ and the experience is going to be too much.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Experience and IQ advantage over Rosas Jr; resisting trap despite 62% public consensus. “I'm going to go with Barcelos. I think the IQ and the experience is going to be too much.” Track record: winner called in 20 of 41 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Nick Kalikas
Nick Kalikas
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article. Track record: winner called in 16 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Timothy Wheaton
Timothy Wheaton
Current pick evidencePicked: Raul Rosas Jr. · Sub Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Timothy Wheaton picks Raul Rosas Jr. by submission, with the article identifying the second or third round as the natural window without making a single round call. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 56.7%. Rosas Jr. · Sub | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Timothy Wheaton picks Raul Rosas Jr. by submission, with the article identifying the second or third round as the natural window without making a single round call. Track record: winner called in 4 of 9 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Brandon K
Brandon K
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Brandon K picks Raoni Barcelos by decision over Raul Rosas Jr. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · Dec | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Brandon K picks Raoni Barcelos by decision over Raul Rosas Jr. Track record: winner called in 10 of 23 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Chris Cross
Chris Cross
Current pick evidencePicked: Raul Rosas Jr. · Dec Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Chris Cross leans Raul Rosas Jr. in a close fight, citing his development and expecting him to win a three-rounds-to-two decision over Raoni Barcelos. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 56.7%. Rosas Jr. · Dec | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Chris Cross leans Raul Rosas Jr. in a close fight, citing his development and expecting him to win a three-rounds-to-two decision over Raoni Barcelos. Track record: winner called in 8 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Rparqs
Rparqs
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos · Dec Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Picks Raoni Barcelos. “But give me Rayoni Barcel to win this fight by decision. I know I have knockout but I'm going to take him by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · Dec | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks Raoni Barcelos. “But give me Rayoni Barcel to win this fight by decision. I know I have knockout but I'm going to take him by decision.” Track record: winner called in 9 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Chris White
Chris White
Current pick evidencePicked: Raoni Barcelos Fight result: Raul Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 43.3%. Barcelos · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article. Track record: winner called in 13 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
11 of 30 called the winner.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO · R5
Closest probability Gemini put 65% on Rosas Jr..
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot
AI Predictions
Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 26 Sep
All 3 models pick Rosas Jr.
All three expect a win by decision, with win chances from 56% (ChatGPT) to 65% (Gemini).
Method mix differs most for Submission: 16% (Gemini) to 22% (Claude), a 6-point range.
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ChatGPT
47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Rosas Jr. by decision
Win probability: Rosas Jr. 56%, Barcelos 44%.
Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score. -
Claude
46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
Pick Rosas Jr. by decision
Win probability: Rosas Jr. 58%, Barcelos 42%.
Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score. -
Gemini
50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
Pick Rosas Jr. by decision
Win probability: Rosas Jr. 65%, Barcelos 35%.
Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
More detail2 areas differ
The models differ on confidence, probability distribution.
| Detail | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | |||
| Round | — | — | — |
| Detail | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | |||
| Round | — | — | — |
ChatGPT
Pick
Rosas Jr. by decision
Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.Winner probability by method
gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Rosas Jr. by decision
Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.Winner probability by method
claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Rosas Jr. by decision
Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.Winner probability by method
Version not reported · 26 Sep50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
Odds
How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.
Market read · 6 sportsbooks
Favoured: Rosas Jr. (57%) Called it
Rosas Jr. defeats Barcelos · KO/TKO R5
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