UFC Fight Night  26 Sep 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Christian Edwards defeats Rodolfo Bellato by KO/TKO

Loss Rodolfo Bellato 13-4-1
Win Christian Edwards 9-5-0
KO/TKO · left hook

Round 3 · 1:47

Bellato vs Edwards — Light Heavyweight · UFC Fight Night

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Bellato used pressure and clinch work early, including a knockdown that gave him the first-round advantage.

Edwards adjusted with kicks and cleaner distance attacks, then continued to make Bellato work in the clinch.

Edwards landed the decisive jab and left hook in the third round and finished at 1:47.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Bellato

Bellato brings a broad MMA game into this light heavyweight matchup. His route is to combine pressure with varied attacks and make Edwards defend across more than one phase.

Case for Edwards

Edwards has a Jackson-Wink MMA background and a long light heavyweight frame. His route is to use distance and straight attacks to keep Bellato from building sustained pressure.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Bellato can turn pressure into control.
  • How Edwards uses range against Bellato's entries.
  • Which fighter wins the first extended exchange.
Records & career stats
Bellato vs Edwards
13-3-1
Record
8-5-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
Brazil
Nationality
United States
30
Age
27
1.91 m
Height — Edwards leads
1.96 m
197 cm
Reach — Edwards leads
199 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
92%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
—
8
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Bellato leads
6
4
Wins by submissionSub wins — Bellato leads
1
5.37
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Bellato leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.40
5.86
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Edwards leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.40
47%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Edwards leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
55%
94%
Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
—
09:20
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
15:00
Kioshi Jiu-Jitsu
Team
Jackson Wink MMA Academy - NM

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight
Fighter interview▶ Christian Edwards Octagon Interview | UFC Vegas 121

Comments

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Drake Burden
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Drake Burden picks Rodolfo Bellato.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 56 29
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (85 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 29:59

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Bellato's durability and proven striking will outlast Edwards despite Edwards' sharpness on the feet.

“So, I'm going to go Bolato here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 11:24

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · Dec

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Picks Rodolfo Bellato by decision.

“Bolato probably by a greasy greasy decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
KingofCrackdown5095
Hear it — 1:53

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

KingofCrackdown5095 picks Rodolfo Bellato by second-round submission over Christian Edwards.

“So in this one, I got Rafal Bolato via second round submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 60.0% 12 8
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
  • Underdog Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
View full track record (39 calls)
Artem MMA
Hear it — 14:45

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · KO/TKO

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Picks Rodolfo Bellato by knockout.

“Give me Bato to win by KO relatively early.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 60.6% 43 28
  • Method Accuracy 63.9% 23 13
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
View full track record (71 calls)
Adam Martin
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
View full track record (40 calls)
Jon Litterine
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Jon Litterine picks Rodolfo Bellato.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.7% 54 43
  • Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 5 15
View full track record (97 calls)
Fight Productions
Hear it — 19:23

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Fight Productions picks Rodolfo Bellato by second-round knockout over Christian Edwards.

“I'm gonna go with Bellato to win this one by round two knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.8% 23 19
  • Method Accuracy 73.9% 17 6
  • Round Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (42 calls)
MikesMMAPicks
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.3% 19 16
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
View full track record (35 calls)
Cole Shelton
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Written pick by Cole Shelton in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.5% 52 47
  • Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 17.6% 3 14
View full track record (99 calls)
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · Dec

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Written pick by Chris Schweppe.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (72 calls)
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 29:59

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Greedo Plays MMA picks Rodolfo Bellato by first-round KO/TKO over Christian Edwards.

“I'm gonna go with Bellato here. First-round knockout victory over Christian Edwards.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 24 24
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (48 calls)
The MMA Yuda
Hear it — 22:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Picks Rodolfo Bellato.

“I'm going to pick Rodalo Bato to win this fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 48.9% 22 23
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (45 calls)
Uselyis
Hear it — 3:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · KO/TKO

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Real knockout power and durability; opponent gets hit frequently.

“Give me Bellato money line as the third most confident pick. But on topology, I'm going to go Bato by KO. And I did put Belatoto by KO in the parlay section.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
  • Method Accuracy 41.7% 5 7
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 5
View full track record (41 calls)
Nick Kalikas
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 45.7% 16 19
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (35 calls)
Rparqs
Hear it — 16:06

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Picks Rodolfo Bellato.

“give me the tractor to win this fight uh by knockout in the first round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
  • Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
View full track record (24 calls)
Chris White
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 37.1% 13 22
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 11.1% 1 8
View full track record (35 calls)
James Blissett
Hear it — 42:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Edwards · Dec

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Picks Christian Edwards by decision.

“Christian Edwards v decision will be my official prediction.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
  • Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
View full track record (54 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 19:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Edwards · Dec

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Angelo picks Christian Edwards by decision; the adjacent six-foot-five Edwards breakdown identifies the transcript's bigger-dude selection despite Bellato name variants.

“I expect this probably to go to a decision. Maybe that's the worst call in the world. I'll take the bigger dude who I haven't seen pretend to be hurt to get out of a fight. I'll take him. He'll be the pick here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Guy Bruhn
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Edwards

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Guy Bruhn picks Christian Edwards.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
View full track record (12 calls)
TonyHasDiedMMA
Hear it — 20:13

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Edwards

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Picks Christian Edwards.

“I'm actually going to go with Christian Edwards here against Ralpho Bolato.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 51.7% 15 14
  • Method Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 4
View full track record (29 calls)

Analyst picks: Drake Burden Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; James Blissett Hit; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Hit; KingofCrackdown5095 Miss; Artem MMA Miss; Guy Bruhn Hit; Adam Martin Miss; Jon Litterine Miss; Fight Productions Miss; MikesMMAPicks Miss; Cole Shelton Miss; TonyHasDiedMMA Hit; Chris Schweppe Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; The MMA Yuda Miss; Uselyis Miss; Nick Kalikas Miss; Rparqs Miss; Chris White Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Drake Burden85 resolved calls
Drake Burden
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Drake Burden picks Rodolfo Bellato.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 56 29
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (85 calls)
Bellato · to winEdwards · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 29:59

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Bellato's durability and proven striking will outlast Edwards despite Edwards' sharpness on the feet.

“So, I'm going to go Bolato here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Bellato · to winEdwards · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
James Blissett54 resolved calls
James Blissett
Hear it — 42:37

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Edwards · Dec

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Picks Christian Edwards by decision.

“Christian Edwards v decision will be my official prediction.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
  • Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
View full track record (54 calls)
Edwards · DecEdwards · KO/TKO R3HitMissNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 11:24

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · Dec

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Picks Rodolfo Bellato by decision.

“Bolato probably by a greasy greasy decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Bellato · DecEdwards · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 19:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Edwards · Dec

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Angelo picks Christian Edwards by decision; the adjacent six-foot-five Edwards breakdown identifies the transcript's bigger-dude selection despite Bellato name variants.

“I expect this probably to go to a decision. Maybe that's the worst call in the world. I'll take the bigger dude who I haven't seen pretend to be hurt to get out of a fight. I'll take him. He'll be the pick here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Edwards · DecEdwards · KO/TKO R3HitMissNot called
KingofCrackdown509539 resolved calls
KingofCrackdown5095
Hear it — 1:53

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

KingofCrackdown5095 picks Rodolfo Bellato by second-round submission over Christian Edwards.

“So in this one, I got Rafal Bolato via second round submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 60.0% 12 8
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
  • Underdog Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
View full track record (39 calls)
Bellato · Sub · R2Edwards · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Artem MMA71 resolved calls
Artem MMA
Hear it — 14:45

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · KO/TKO

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Picks Rodolfo Bellato by knockout.

“Give me Bato to win by KO relatively early.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 60.6% 43 28
  • Method Accuracy 63.9% 23 13
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
View full track record (71 calls)
Bellato · KO/TKOEdwards · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Guy Bruhn12 resolved calls
Guy Bruhn
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Edwards

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Guy Bruhn picks Christian Edwards.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
View full track record (12 calls)
Edwards · to winEdwards · KO/TKO R3HitNot calledNot called
Adam Martin40 resolved calls
Adam Martin
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
View full track record (40 calls)
Bellato · to winEdwards · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Jon Litterine97 resolved calls
Jon Litterine
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Jon Litterine picks Rodolfo Bellato.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.7% 54 43
  • Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 5 15
View full track record (97 calls)
Bellato · to winEdwards · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Fight Productions42 resolved calls
Fight Productions
Hear it — 19:23

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Fight Productions picks Rodolfo Bellato by second-round knockout over Christian Edwards.

“I'm gonna go with Bellato to win this one by round two knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.8% 23 19
  • Method Accuracy 73.9% 17 6
  • Round Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (42 calls)
Bellato · KO/TKO · R2Edwards · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MikesMMAPicks35 resolved calls
MikesMMAPicks
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.3% 19 16
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
View full track record (35 calls)
Bellato · to winEdwards · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Cole Shelton99 resolved calls
Cole Shelton
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Written pick by Cole Shelton in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.5% 52 47
  • Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 17.6% 3 14
View full track record (99 calls)
Bellato · to winEdwards · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
TonyHasDiedMMA29 resolved calls
TonyHasDiedMMA
Hear it — 20:13

Current pick evidence

Picked: Christian Edwards

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Picks Christian Edwards.

“I'm actually going to go with Christian Edwards here against Ralpho Bolato.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 51.7% 15 14
  • Method Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 4
View full track record (29 calls)
Edwards · to winEdwards · KO/TKO R3HitNot calledNot called
Chris Schweppe72 resolved calls
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · Dec

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Written pick by Chris Schweppe.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (72 calls)
Bellato · DecEdwards · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Greedo Plays MMA48 resolved calls
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 29:59

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Greedo Plays MMA picks Rodolfo Bellato by first-round KO/TKO over Christian Edwards.

“I'm gonna go with Bellato here. First-round knockout victory over Christian Edwards.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 24 24
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (48 calls)
Bellato · KO/TKO · R1Edwards · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Yuda45 resolved calls
The MMA Yuda
Hear it — 22:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Picks Rodolfo Bellato.

“I'm going to pick Rodalo Bato to win this fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 48.9% 22 23
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (45 calls)
Bellato · to winEdwards · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Uselyis41 resolved calls
Uselyis
Hear it — 3:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · KO/TKO

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Real knockout power and durability; opponent gets hit frequently.

“Give me Bellato money line as the third most confident pick. But on topology, I'm going to go Bato by KO. And I did put Belatoto by KO in the parlay section.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
  • Method Accuracy 41.7% 5 7
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 5
View full track record (41 calls)
Bellato · KO/TKOEdwards · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Nick Kalikas35 resolved calls
Nick Kalikas
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 45.7% 16 19
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (35 calls)
Bellato · to winEdwards · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Rparqs24 resolved calls
Rparqs
Hear it — 16:06

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Picks Rodolfo Bellato.

“give me the tractor to win this fight uh by knockout in the first round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
  • Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
View full track record (24 calls)
Bellato · KO/TKO · R1Edwards · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Chris White35 resolved calls
Chris White
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rodolfo Bellato

Fight result: Christian Edwards · KO/TKO

Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 37.1% 13 22
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 11.1% 1 8
View full track record (35 calls)
Bellato · to winEdwards · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

Only 4 of 21 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Edwards · KO/TKO · R3

Closest probability ChatGPT and Gemini put 37% on Edwards.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
63% Bellato
37% Edwards
PickBellato · KO/TKO · R2ActualEdwards · KO/TKO · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missed
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
67% Bellato
33% Edwards
PickBellato · KO/TKO · R2ActualEdwards · KO/TKO · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missed
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
63% Bellato
37% Edwards
PickBellato · KO/TKO · R2ActualEdwards · KO/TKO · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missed
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 26 Sep

All 3 models pick Bellato

All three expect a win by KO/TKO, with win chances from 63% (ChatGPT and Gemini) to 67% (Claude).

Method mix differs most for Decision: 34% (Claude and Gemini) to 45% (ChatGPT), a 11-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Bellato by KO/TKO in round 2

    Win probability: Bellato 63%, Edwards 37%.

    gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep

    Medium confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Bellato by KO/TKO in round 2

    Win probability: Bellato 67%, Edwards 33%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep

    Medium confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Bellato by KO/TKO in round 2

    Win probability: Bellato 63%, Edwards 37%.

    Version not reported · 26 Sep

    Medium confidence
More detail1 area differs

The models differ on probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 2Round 2Round 2
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 2Round 2Round 2

ChatGPT

Pick

Bellato by KO/TKO in round 2

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Bellato 63%, Edwards 37%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 44% overall: Bellato 30%, Edwards 14%
Submission, 11% overall: Bellato 8%, Edwards 3%
Decision, 45% overall: Bellato 25%, Edwards 20%

gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Bellato by KO/TKO in round 2

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Bellato 67%, Edwards 33%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 48% overall: Bellato 35%, Edwards 13%
Submission, 18% overall: Bellato 13%, Edwards 5%
Decision, 34% overall: Bellato 19%, Edwards 15%

claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Bellato by KO/TKO in round 2

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Bellato 63%, Edwards 37%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 51% overall: Bellato 40%, Edwards 11%
Submission, 15% overall: Bellato 9%, Edwards 6%
Decision, 34% overall: Bellato 14%, Edwards 20%

Version not reported · 26 Sep50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.