UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov  25 Jul 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, AE

Magomed Zaynukov defeats Damian Rzepecki by unanimous decision

Win Magomed Zaynukov 9-0-0
Loss Damian Rzepecki 10-1-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Zaynukov vs Rzepecki — Lightweight · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

A first-round eye poke paused the contest.

Zaynukov controlled the action with the depth of his striking offence.

Zaynukov won the unanimous decision.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Zaynukov

Zaynukov brings the Dagestani template to an unbeaten record. Training out of the Nurmagomedov school, 'Wild Chanco' is 8-0 with a Muay Thai base bolted onto the grappling pressure that region has made famous, and he has already been tested internationally at UAE Warriors and on the Contender Series. He is the more proven of the two perfect records.

Case for Rzepecki

Rzepecki is a 10-0 finisher making the UFC walk for the first time. 'The Butcher' has stopped nine of ten opponents — a 90% finish rate split between knockouts and submissions — carving through Poland's FEN scene. He is the bigger unknown and a genuine finishing threat; the question is whether that regional stoppage rate translates the moment the level jumps.

What We Were Watching For

  • Two zeros: one of these unbeaten records ends tonight — who handles the first real adversity of their career?
  • Wrestling vs finishing: Zaynukov's grappling pressure against Rzepecki's stoppage power — who dictates where the fight happens?
  • The debut jump: Rzepecki has never fought on this stage — does UFC-level competition dull a regional finishing record?
  • Zaynukov's decisions: three of his eight wins went the distance — can he finish, or does he need to grind rounds?
Records & career stats
Zaynukov vs Rzepecki
Zaynukov Rzepecki
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 10.30 1.07
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 62% 44%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 2.93 4.93
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 86% 67%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 63% 90%
8-0-0
Record
10-0-0
5-0 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5-0 last 5
Russia
Nationality
Poland
31
Age
24
1.78 m
Height
1.78 m
173 cm
Reach — Rzepecki leads
187 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
63%
Finish rateFinish % — Rzepecki leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
90%
5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Zaynukov leads
4
0
Wins by submissionSub wins — Rzepecki leads
5
10.30
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Zaynukov leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
1.07
2.93
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Zaynukov leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.93
62%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Zaynukov leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
44%
86%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Zaynukov leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
67%
15:00
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
15:00
Nurmagomedov School
Team
Top Fit Center Piotrków Trybunalski

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 18:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Zaynukov

Fight result: Magomed Zaynukov · Decision

Expects Zaynukov's output and well-rounded camp experience to overwhelm Rzepecki and find a finish inside two rounds, without naming a specific method or round.

“biggest difference maker in this fight. And I will go out on a limb and say Wild”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 52:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Zaynukov

Fight result: Magomed Zaynukov · Decision

Names Magomed Zaynukov as the full-card pick in this preview.

“there rooting for the guy. So I am going to pick Hey brother this guy John Pork I”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 22:38

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Zaynukov · Dec

Fight result: Magomed Zaynukov · Decision

Backs Zaynukov's broader striking and grappling tools to carry a decision over the durable Rzepecki.

“the more skilled fighter in general. So, I like Maggman Zionov, aka Chonko, aka”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 28:01

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Zaynukov

Fight result: Magomed Zaynukov · Decision

Names Magomed Zaynukov as the full-card pick in this preview.

“takedown after his head is snapped back a few times. John Pork's the pick here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Zaynukov · Dec

Fight result: Magomed Zaynukov · Decision

MMA Mania's UFC Abu Dhabi X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Magomed Zaynukov by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)

Analyst picks: Michael Chiesa Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Michael Chiesa62 resolved calls
Michael Chiesa
Hear it — 18:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Zaynukov

Fight result: Magomed Zaynukov · Decision

Expects Zaynukov's output and well-rounded camp experience to overwhelm Rzepecki and find a finish inside two rounds, without naming a specific method or round.

“biggest difference maker in this fight. And I will go out on a limb and say Wild”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (62 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Zaynukov · to winZaynukov · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 52:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Zaynukov

Fight result: Magomed Zaynukov · Decision

Names Magomed Zaynukov as the full-card pick in this preview.

“there rooting for the guy. So I am going to pick Hey brother this guy John Pork I”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Zaynukov · to winZaynukov · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 22:38

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Zaynukov · Dec

Fight result: Magomed Zaynukov · Decision

Backs Zaynukov's broader striking and grappling tools to carry a decision over the durable Rzepecki.

“the more skilled fighter in general. So, I like Maggman Zionov, aka Chonko, aka”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Zaynukov · DecZaynukov · Dec R3HitHitNot called
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 28:01

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Zaynukov

Fight result: Magomed Zaynukov · Decision

Names Magomed Zaynukov as the full-card pick in this preview.

“takedown after his head is snapped back a few times. John Pork's the pick here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Zaynukov · to winZaynukov · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
Andrew Richardson58 resolved calls
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Magomed Zaynukov · Dec

Fight result: Magomed Zaynukov · Decision

MMA Mania's UFC Abu Dhabi X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Magomed Zaynukov by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Zaynukov · DecZaynukov · Dec R3HitHitNot called

5 of 5 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.