UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Nurullo Aliev defeats Mike Davis by unanimous decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Davis vs Aliev — Lightweight · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Aliev repeatedly dragged Davis to the mat with his wrestling.
Davis scrambled and chased submissions, but Aliev defended and returned to his control game.
Aliev won the unanimous decision.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Abu Dhabi — Preliminary Card Results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Davis
Davis is the proven UFC lightweight in the matchup. The UFC preview credits him with a 5-1 run at 155 pounds, three finishes and a Fight of the Night bonus with Mason Jones, with Fares Ziam the only defeat in that stretch.
Case for Aliev
Aliev remains unbeaten through three UFC starts after his strong Contender Series showing. The same UFC preview frames this as a chance for him to regain momentum after a less active stretch, so a composed performance against a veteran would be a meaningful next step.
What We Were Watching For
- Davis's UFC experience against an opponent who has won all three of his UFC starts.
- Whether Aliev can turn an unbeaten record into sustained momentum after limited activity.
- The pace Davis establishes early, given his proven lightweight run.
- How the prospect handles a veteran whose recent UFC résumé includes finishes and a Fight of the Night.
Records & career stats
- 12-3-0
- Record
- 11-0-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- Source pending
- United States
- Nationality
- Source pending
- 33
- Age
- 25
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Source pending
- 83%
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- Source pending
- Not published
- Sig. strikes landed / minStr / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 2.29
- —
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 1.59
- —
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 55%
- —
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 80%
- —
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 12:55
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Performance filters use calls resolved before this event.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mike Davis
Fight result: Nurullo Aliev · Decision
Backs Davis as the more technically complete fighter if he stays mobile and keeps Aliev's grappling from dictating the bout.
“underdogs. So, let's go with Mike Davis over Aaliyah at 33%. Now, this is a long”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mike Davis
Fight result: Nurullo Aliev · Decision
Names Mike Davis as the full-card pick in this preview.
“how I'm feeling later in the week. But, as of right now, I I'm picking Mike”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
- Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
- Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
- Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Mike Davis
Fight result: Nurullo Aliev · Decision
Names Mike Davis as the full-card pick in this preview.
“Aliev has faced. And Aliev isn't dominating these guys. So, I'm going to”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
- Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
- Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
- Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Nurullo Aliev
Fight result: Nurullo Aliev · Decision
Backs Davis as the more complete and proven fighter, expecting his striking and grappling to test Aliev beyond the latter's previous opposition.
“Mike Davis to beat Nurullo Aliev and give him his first pro loss here.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
- Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
- Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Nurullo Aliev · Dec
Fight result: Nurullo Aliev · Decision
Takes Aliev to bank takedowns and control against Davis over three rounds.
“win it how he wins fights, which would be by decision. So give me the rolly”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
- Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
Current pick evidence
Picked: Nurullo Aliev
Fight result: Nurullo Aliev · Decision
Picks Nurullo Aliev for his controlling wrestling against Mike Davis.
“about the wrestling? And I think I'm going to pick Aliv here for those”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Analyst picks: AJ Devito Hit; Michael Chiesa Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; HopperMMA Miss.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ Devito
AJ Devito
Current pick evidencePicked: Nurullo Aliev Fight result: Nurullo Aliev · Decision Backs Davis as the more complete and proven fighter, expecting his striking and grappling to test Aliev beyond the latter's previous opposition. “Mike Davis to beat Nurullo Aliev and give him his first pro loss here.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Aliev · to win | Aliev · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Backs Davis as the more complete and proven fighter, expecting his striking and grappling to test Aliev beyond the latter's previous opposition. “Mike Davis to beat Nurullo Aliev and give him his first pro loss here.” Track record: winner called in 165 of 237 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Michael Chiesa
Michael Chiesa
Current pick evidencePicked: Mike Davis Fight result: Nurullo Aliev · Decision Backs Davis as the more technically complete fighter if he stays mobile and keeps Aliev's grappling from dictating the bout. “underdogs. So, let's go with Mike Davis over Aaliyah at 33%. Now, this is a long” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Davis · to win | Aliev · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Backs Davis as the more technically complete fighter if he stays mobile and keeps Aliev's grappling from dictating the bout. “underdogs. So, let's go with Mike Davis over Aaliyah at 33%. Now, this is a long” Track record: winner called in 42 of 62 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
JakeGerberMMA
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Mike Davis Fight result: Nurullo Aliev · Decision Names Mike Davis as the full-card pick in this preview. “how I'm feeling later in the week. But, as of right now, I I'm picking Mike” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Davis · to win | Aliev · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Names Mike Davis as the full-card pick in this preview. “how I'm feeling later in the week. But, as of right now, I I'm picking Mike” Track record: winner called in 83 of 127 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
DFS By The Numbers
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidencePicked: Nurullo Aliev · Dec Fight result: Nurullo Aliev · Decision Takes Aliev to bank takedowns and control against Davis over three rounds. “win it how he wins fights, which would be by decision. So give me the rolly” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Aliev · Dec | Aliev · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| Takes Aliev to bank takedowns and control against Davis over three rounds. “win it how he wins fights, which would be by decision. So give me the rolly” Track record: winner called in 94 of 146 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
We Want Picks
We Want Picks
Current pick evidencePicked: Nurullo Aliev Fight result: Nurullo Aliev · Decision Picks Nurullo Aliev for his controlling wrestling against Mike Davis. “about the wrestling? And I think I'm going to pick Aliv here for those” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Aliev · to win | Aliev · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Picks Nurullo Aliev for his controlling wrestling against Mike Davis. “about the wrestling? And I think I'm going to pick Aliv here for those” Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
HopperMMA
HopperMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Mike Davis Fight result: Nurullo Aliev · Decision Names Mike Davis as the full-card pick in this preview. “Aliev has faced. And Aliev isn't dominating these guys. So, I'm going to” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Davis · to win | Aliev · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Names Mike Davis as the full-card pick in this preview. “Aliev has faced. And Aliev isn't dominating these guys. So, I'm going to” Track record: winner called in 77 of 121 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
3 of 6 called the winner.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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