UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman  18 Jul 2026 · Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, US

Dione Barbosa defeats Anna Melisano by Submission

Win Dione Barbosa 10-4-0
Loss Anna Melisano 6-2-0
Submission · rear-naked choke

Round 1 · 4:04

Barbosa vs Melisano — Women's Flyweight · UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Barbosa closed distance early and took Melisano down inside the opening exchanges.

She advanced through dominant positions, mixing ground-and-pound with submission attempts.

As Melisano came up, Barbosa leapt to the back and finished with a rear-naked choke at 4:04.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Barbosa

Barbosa is the more proven grappler and the only fighter here with UFC wins — judo entries and top control that beat Belbita, Gatto and Kareckaite. Against a short-notice debutant, her Octagon experience and ability to turn the fight into a grappling test are the safest edges in the matchup.

Case for Melisano

Melisano arrives unbeaten in her last five and finishing at will on the regional scene — a knockout, a rear-naked choke and a doctor stoppage among them. On short notice against a UFC Performance Institute grappler the ask is steep, so her path is to keep it standing and swing the debut nerves onto a Barbosa who has stopped only four of nine opponents.

What We Were Watching For

  • Debut on short notice: can Melisano handle Barbosa's grappling pressure without a full camp?
  • Barbosa's judo against Melisano's power: does the fight live in the clinch or in open-space exchanges?
  • Barbosa's finishing drought: a 44% finish rate — does she have the pop to stop a durable debutant, or is this a decision?
  • Experience gap: Barbosa has UFC rounds banked, Melisano has none — how much does that tell late?
Records & career stats
Barbosa vs Melisano
Barbosa Melisano
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 2.15 0.49
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 64% 29%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 2.29 1.23
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 64% 50%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 44% 50%
9-4-0
Record
6-1-0
3-2 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5-0 last 5
Brazil
Nationality
United States
34
Age
29
1.68 m
Height
1.68 m
166 cm
Reach — Melisano leads
173 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
44%
Finish rateFinish % — Melisano leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
50%
0
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Melisano leads
2
5
Wins by submissionSub wins — Barbosa leads
1
2.15
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Barbosa leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
0.49
2.29
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Melisano leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
1.23
64%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Barbosa leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
29%
64%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Barbosa leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
50%
10:25
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
04:04
UFC Performance Institute
Team
Spartan Fitness MMA

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (1)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

AJ Devito
Hear it — 5:38

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dione Barbosa

Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission

Takes Barbosa to outgrapple Melisano, citing the physical flyweight matchup and Barbosa's top-control advantage.

“prediction on him most likely and I'll go Barbosa to outgrapple her. Let's keep”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 5:14

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dione Barbosa · Sub

Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission

Picks Barbosa's experience and tested level over Melisano's inexperience, calling a submission win.

“She'd probably put hands on Melissano, or probably sub her. I'm going to go”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 2:17

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dione Barbosa

Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission

Takes Barbosa's UFC experience and grappling over the debuting Melisano.

“So, I'm going to side with Barbosza by a decision, but I definitely see a world”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 3:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dione Barbosa

Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission

Takes Barbosa to use her physical grappling edge against the short-notice newcomer.

“going Donnie Barbosa to win this fight. I'm going to take her to win this fight”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Mike Finch
Hear it — 50:58

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dione Barbosa

Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission

Expects Barbosa's UFC experience and grappling to overwhelm the debuting Melisano on the mat.

“I think Dion Barbosa is gonna be able to take her down, mount her, take her back,”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
View full track record (40 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 40:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dione Barbosa

Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission

Picks Barbosa to finish Melisano, emphasizing Barbosa's experience and well-roundedness at the price.

“dominantly. So, I'm going to pick Deonna Barbosa to come out here and finish Anna”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)

Analyst picks: AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; Mike Finch Hit; Half The Battle Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 5:38

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dione Barbosa

Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission

Takes Barbosa to outgrapple Melisano, citing the physical flyweight matchup and Barbosa's top-control advantage.

“prediction on him most likely and I'll go Barbosa to outgrapple her. Let's keep”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Barbosa · to winBarbosa · Sub R1HitNot calledNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 5:14

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dione Barbosa · Sub

Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission

Picks Barbosa's experience and tested level over Melisano's inexperience, calling a submission win.

“She'd probably put hands on Melissano, or probably sub her. I'm going to go”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Barbosa · SubBarbosa · Sub R1HitHitNot called
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 2:17

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dione Barbosa

Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission

Takes Barbosa's UFC experience and grappling over the debuting Melisano.

“So, I'm going to side with Barbosza by a decision, but I definitely see a world”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Barbosa · to winBarbosa · Sub R1HitNot calledNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 3:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dione Barbosa

Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission

Takes Barbosa to use her physical grappling edge against the short-notice newcomer.

“going Donnie Barbosa to win this fight. I'm going to take her to win this fight”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Barbosa · to winBarbosa · Sub R1HitNot calledNot called
Mike Finch40 resolved calls
Mike Finch
Hear it — 50:58

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dione Barbosa

Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission

Expects Barbosa's UFC experience and grappling to overwhelm the debuting Melisano on the mat.

“I think Dion Barbosa is gonna be able to take her down, mount her, take her back,”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
View full track record (40 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Barbosa · to winBarbosa · Sub R1HitNot calledNot called
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 40:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Dione Barbosa

Fight result: Dione Barbosa · Submission

Picks Barbosa to finish Melisano, emphasizing Barbosa's experience and well-roundedness at the price.

“dominantly. So, I'm going to pick Deonna Barbosa to come out here and finish Anna”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Barbosa · to winBarbosa · Sub R1HitNot calledNot called

6 of 6 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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