UFC Fight Night  26 Sep 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Valesca Machado defeats Melissa Amaya by KO/TKO

Loss Melissa Amaya 8-1-0
Win Valesca Machado 16-4-0
Watch the fight
KO/TKO · strikes

Round 2 · 3:19

Amaya vs Machado — Women's Strawweight · UFC Fight Night

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Amaya and Machado exchanged measured attacks early, with Machado finding the cleaner openings as the first round developed.

Machado dropped Amaya late in the opening round and carried the pressure into the second.

Machado finished the fight with strikes at 3:19 of round two for the official TKO win.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Amaya

Amaya is unbeaten through eight professional fights, five of them finishes — three by knockout or TKO and two by submission — and her last two wins have both come by TKO. Her route against a veteran counter-puncher is to keep pushing that finishing pace early rather than let Machado turn this into the grinding, decision-heavy fight that has defined most of Machado's career.

Case for Machado

Machado brings a 15-4 professional record built mostly on decisions — nine of her fifteen wins have gone the distance — plus a career strike output of 2.40 significant strikes landed per minute by the UFC's own tracking. All four of her losses have also gone to the judges' scorecards, so her test is proving she can out-work Amaya over three rounds rather than get caught by the kind of finish that has closed out five of Amaya's eight wins.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Amaya's finishing rate — five finishes in eight pro wins — catches Machado before the fight reaches deep water.
  • Whether Machado's higher volume (2.40 significant strikes landed per minute) grinds out the rounds the way nine of her fifteen career wins have.
  • Whether Amaya's unbeaten record survives its first test against a 15-fight veteran.
  • Whether the fight ends the way most of Machado's fights have — on the scorecards — or the way most of Amaya's have — with a finish.
Records & career stats
Amaya vs Machado
8-0-0
Record
15-4-0
4-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
United States
Nationality
Brazil
31
Age
30
1.64 m
Height — Amaya leads
1.63 m
164 cm
Reach — Amaya leads
161 cm
Not published
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Not published
63%
Finish rateFinish % — Amaya leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
44%
3
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Machado leads
6
2
Wins by submissionSub wins — Amaya leads
1
2.65
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Amaya leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.40
6.01
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Machado leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.87
52%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Machado leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
64%
Not published
Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
77%
08:19
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
15:00
Sik-Jitsu Spokane, WA
Team
Team Alpha Male

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight
Fighter interview▶ Tina Black Octagon Interview | UFC Vegas 121

Comments

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Drake Burden
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Amaya

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Drake Burden picks Melissa Amaya.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 56 29
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (85 calls)
Adam Martin
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Amaya

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
View full track record (40 calls)
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Amaya · Dec

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Written pick by Chris Schweppe.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (72 calls)
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 39:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Amaya · Dec

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Greedo Plays MMA picks Melissa Amaya by decision over Valesca Machado.

“Hesitantly I'll go Melissa Amaya. I'll take Melissa Amaya by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 24 24
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (48 calls)
Uselyis
Hear it — 8:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Amaya

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

From parlay combination with other confident picks.

“Melissa Amaya Osman Lee and Barcelos all money line plus 785”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
  • Method Accuracy 41.7% 5 7
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 5
View full track record (41 calls)
Nick Kalikas
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Amaya

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 45.7% 16 19
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (35 calls)
Chris Cross
Hear it — 2:30

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Amaya · Dec

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Chris Cross picks Melissa Amaya by decision while noting limited information on the matchup.

“I think Amaya will pull this thing out … by decision.”

* Chris Cross notes limited information on the matchup.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 40.0% 8 12
  • Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
View full track record (20 calls)
Chris White
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Amaya

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 37.1% 13 22
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 11.1% 1 8
View full track record (35 calls)
James Blissett
Hear it — 34:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado · Dec

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Picks Valesca Machado by decision.

“Tina Black wins this one via decision as my official prediction.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
  • Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
View full track record (54 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 15:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado · Dec

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Picks Valesca Machado by decision.

“I am going to go with Tina Black to win this fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 38:20

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Angelo picks canonical Valesca Machado; the transcript explicitly explains that Tina Black is Machado's nickname/name variant before selecting her.

“I think Tina Black gets the win. I think it's that simple.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Artem MMA
Hear it — 18:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado · Dec

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Picks Valesca Machado by decision.

“I think she's going to win this fight and win this fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 60.6% 43 28
  • Method Accuracy 63.9% 23 13
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
View full track record (71 calls)
Jon Litterine
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Jon Litterine picks Valesca Machado.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.7% 54 43
  • Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 5 15
View full track record (97 calls)
Fight Productions
Hear it — 28:26

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Fight Productions picks Valesca Machado by second-round knockout over Melissa Amaya.

“I'm going to take Tina Black to win this one by round two knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.8% 23 19
  • Method Accuracy 73.9% 17 6
  • Round Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (42 calls)
MikesMMAPicks
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.3% 19 16
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
View full track record (35 calls)
Cole Shelton
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Written pick by Cole Shelton in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.5% 52 47
  • Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 17.6% 3 14
View full track record (99 calls)
TonyHasDiedMMA
Hear it — 25:14

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Picks Valesca Machado.

“Tina Black, but I think that she should get this one done against Melissa Amayo.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 51.7% 15 14
  • Method Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 4
View full track record (29 calls)
The MMA Yuda
Hear it — 29:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Picks Valesca Machado.

“I'm going to pick Valisa Machado.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 48.9% 22 23
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (45 calls)

Analyst picks: Drake Burden Miss; James Blissett Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; We Want Picks Hit; Artem MMA Hit; Adam Martin Miss; Jon Litterine Hit; Fight Productions Hit; MikesMMAPicks Hit; Cole Shelton Hit; TonyHasDiedMMA Hit; Chris Schweppe Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; The MMA Yuda Hit; Uselyis Miss; Nick Kalikas Miss; Chris Cross Miss; Chris White Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Drake Burden85 resolved calls
Drake Burden
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Amaya

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Drake Burden picks Melissa Amaya.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 56 29
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (85 calls)
Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 36.3%. Amaya · to winMachado · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
James Blissett54 resolved calls
James Blissett
Hear it — 34:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado · Dec

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Picks Valesca Machado by decision.

“Tina Black wins this one via decision as my official prediction.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
  • Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
View full track record (54 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 63.7%. Machado · DecMachado · KO/TKO R2HitMissNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 15:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado · Dec

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Picks Valesca Machado by decision.

“I am going to go with Tina Black to win this fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 63.7%. Machado · DecMachado · KO/TKO R2HitMissNot called
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 38:20

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Angelo picks canonical Valesca Machado; the transcript explicitly explains that Tina Black is Machado's nickname/name variant before selecting her.

“I think Tina Black gets the win. I think it's that simple.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 63.7%. Machado · to winMachado · KO/TKO R2HitNot calledNot called
Artem MMA71 resolved calls
Artem MMA
Hear it — 18:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado · Dec

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Picks Valesca Machado by decision.

“I think she's going to win this fight and win this fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 60.6% 43 28
  • Method Accuracy 63.9% 23 13
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
View full track record (71 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 63.7%. Machado · DecMachado · KO/TKO R2HitMissNot called
Adam Martin40 resolved calls
Adam Martin
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Amaya

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
View full track record (40 calls)
Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 36.3%. Amaya · to winMachado · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Jon Litterine97 resolved calls
Jon Litterine
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Jon Litterine picks Valesca Machado.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.7% 54 43
  • Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 5 15
View full track record (97 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 63.7%. Machado · to winMachado · KO/TKO R2HitNot calledNot called
Fight Productions42 resolved calls
Fight Productions
Hear it — 28:26

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Fight Productions picks Valesca Machado by second-round knockout over Melissa Amaya.

“I'm going to take Tina Black to win this one by round two knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.8% 23 19
  • Method Accuracy 73.9% 17 6
  • Round Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (42 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 63.7%. Machado · KO/TKO · R2Machado · KO/TKO R2HitHitHit
MikesMMAPicks35 resolved calls
MikesMMAPicks
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.3% 19 16
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
View full track record (35 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 63.7%. Machado · to winMachado · KO/TKO R2HitNot calledNot called
Cole Shelton99 resolved calls
Cole Shelton
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Written pick by Cole Shelton in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.5% 52 47
  • Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 17.6% 3 14
View full track record (99 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 63.7%. Machado · to winMachado · KO/TKO R2HitNot calledNot called
TonyHasDiedMMA29 resolved calls
TonyHasDiedMMA
Hear it — 25:14

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Picks Valesca Machado.

“Tina Black, but I think that she should get this one done against Melissa Amayo.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 51.7% 15 14
  • Method Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 4
View full track record (29 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 63.7%. Machado · to winMachado · KO/TKO R2HitNot calledNot called
Chris Schweppe72 resolved calls
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Amaya · Dec

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Written pick by Chris Schweppe.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (72 calls)
Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 36.3%. Amaya · DecMachado · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Greedo Plays MMA48 resolved calls
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 39:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Amaya · Dec

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Greedo Plays MMA picks Melissa Amaya by decision over Valesca Machado.

“Hesitantly I'll go Melissa Amaya. I'll take Melissa Amaya by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 24 24
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (48 calls)
Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 36.3%. Amaya · DecMachado · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Yuda45 resolved calls
The MMA Yuda
Hear it — 29:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Valesca Machado

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Picks Valesca Machado.

“I'm going to pick Valisa Machado.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 48.9% 22 23
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (45 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 63.7%. Machado · to winMachado · KO/TKO R2HitNot calledNot called
Uselyis41 resolved calls
Uselyis
Hear it — 8:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Amaya

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

From parlay combination with other confident picks.

“Melissa Amaya Osman Lee and Barcelos all money line plus 785”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
  • Method Accuracy 41.7% 5 7
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 5
View full track record (41 calls)
Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 36.3%. Amaya · to winMachado · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Nick Kalikas35 resolved calls
Nick Kalikas
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Amaya

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 45.7% 16 19
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (35 calls)
Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 36.3%. Amaya · to winMachado · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Chris Cross20 resolved calls
Chris Cross
Hear it — 2:30

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Amaya · Dec

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Chris Cross picks Melissa Amaya by decision while noting limited information on the matchup.

“I think Amaya will pull this thing out … by decision.”

* Chris Cross notes limited information on the matchup.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 40.0% 8 12
  • Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
View full track record (20 calls)
Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 36.3%. Amaya · DecMachado · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Chris White35 resolved calls
Chris White
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Amaya

Fight result: Valesca Machado · KO/TKO

Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 37.1% 13 22
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 11.1% 1 8
View full track record (35 calls)
Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 36.3%. Amaya · to winMachado · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

10 of 18 called the winner.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Machado · KO/TKO · R2

Closest probability Gemini put 68% on Machado.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
39% Amaya
61% Machado
PickMachado · DecisionActualMachado · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
45% Amaya
55% Machado
PickMachado · DecisionActualMachado · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
32% Amaya
68% Machado
PickMachado · DecisionActualMachado · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 26 Sep

All 3 models pick Machado

All three expect a win by decision, with win chances from 55% (Claude) to 68% (Gemini).

Method mix differs most for KO/TKO: 18% (Gemini) to 40% (Claude), a 22-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Machado by decision

    Win probability: Amaya 39%, Machado 61%.

    gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep

    Medium confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Machado by decision

    Win probability: Amaya 45%, Machado 55%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep

    Low confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Machado by decision

    Win probability: Amaya 32%, Machado 68%.

    Version not reported · 26 Sep

    Medium confidence
More detail2 areas differ

The models differ on confidence, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———

ChatGPT

Pick

Machado by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Amaya 39%, Machado 61%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 20% overall: Amaya 8%, Machado 12%
Submission, 13% overall: Amaya 10%, Machado 3%
Decision, 67% overall: Amaya 21%, Machado 46%

gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Machado by decision

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Amaya 45%, Machado 55%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 40% overall: Amaya 20%, Machado 20%
Submission, 15% overall: Amaya 5%, Machado 10%
Decision, 45% overall: Amaya 20%, Machado 25%

claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Machado by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Amaya 32%, Machado 68%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 18% overall: Amaya 6%, Machado 12%
Submission, 16% overall: Amaya 10%, Machado 6%
Decision, 66% overall: Amaya 16%, Machado 50%

Version not reported · 26 Sep50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

Odds

How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.

Market read · 6 sportsbooks

36% Melissa Amaya
64% Valesca Machado

Favoured: Machado (64%) Called it

Machado defeats Amaya · KO/TKO R2

Final pre-fight line · as of 26 Sep 21:29 UTC · 6 sportsbooks · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.