“I wanted to prove to myself I could come away with the W.” Level-headed determination provided a path to a hard-fought victory for Alatengheili at #UFCVegas121 Complete Prelim Results ➡️ https://t.co/PrGJB0jNWF Complete Scorecards ➡️ https://t.co/5t667X4q4Q
View video on X ↗Alatengheili defeats John Castaneda by split decision
Split decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Castaneda vs Alatengheili — Bantamweight · UFC Fight Night
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(20) 100%
0% (0)
AI Prediction
70%
30%
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Castaneda controlled the early striking exchanges and made the first two rounds a high-volume fight.
Alateng changed the rhythm in the third with takedowns and fence control.
The late adjustment was enough for Alateng to take the official split decision.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos prelim results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Castaneda
Castaneda brings a complete MMA profile and a measurable striking base into this bantamweight matchup. His route is to make the fight multi-phase and punish predictable entries.
Case for Alatengheili
Alateng Heili represents the opposing pressure test. His route is to close space, force physical exchanges and deny Castaneda a comfortable technical rhythm.
What We Were Watching For
- Which bantamweight controls the range.
- How the first clinch exchange changes the pace.
- Whether Castaneda can keep the bout in multiple phases.
Records & career stats
- 4.95 2.82
- 54% 57%
- 5.07 5.12
- 76% 75%
- 67% 44%
- 21-8-1
- Record
- 17-10-2
- 1-3-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 3-2 last 5
- United States
- Nationality
- China
- 34
- Age
- 33
- Not published
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Not published
- 13:05
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 13:25
- The Academy
- Team
- Red Hawk Academy
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Performance filters use calls resolved before this event.
(20) 100%
LCastaneda
0% (0)
AlatengheiliW
Drake Burden
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Drake Burden picks John Castaneda.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.9% 56 29
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Castaneda's superior footwork, leg kicks, and movement give him output advantage over Alateng Heili.
“I'm going to go John Castanady here. I think he's going to be a little bit busier.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
- Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
- Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
- Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
James Blissett
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda · Dec
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Picks John Castaneda by decision.
“I am going to go with him to get the win via decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
- Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda · Dec
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Picks John Castaneda by decision.
“I'll pick him to win this fight and win this fight by decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
- Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
- Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
- Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
We Want Picks
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Angelo picks canonical John Castaneda; the transcript's Castanada/sexy Mexi caption variants are reconciled to the official card.
“I love John Castanada as a fighter. I've picked him many times before and I'm going to pick him here.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
Artem MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda · Dec
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Picks John Castaneda by decision.
“So give me Castinator to win by decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 60.6% 43 28
- Method Accuracy 63.9% 23 13
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
Guy Bruhn
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Guy Bruhn picks John Castaneda.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
Adam Martin
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Jon Litterine picks John Castaneda.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 55.7% 54 43
- Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 5 15
Fight Productions
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda · Dec
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Fight Productions picks John Castaneda by decision over Alateng Heili.
“I'm going to take Castanada to win this one by decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 54.8% 23 19
- Method Accuracy 73.9% 17 6
- Round Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
MikesMMAPicks
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 54.3% 19 16
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Cole Shelton picks John Castaneda.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 52.5% 52 47
- Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 17.6% 3 14
TonyHasDiedMMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda · Dec
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Picks John Castaneda.
“I'm going to go with John Castanada to get this one done by decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 51.7% 15 14
- Method Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 4
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda · Dec
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Written pick by Chris Schweppe.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
- Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
- Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
- Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
Greedo Plays MMA
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda · Dec
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Greedo Plays MMA picks John Castaneda by decision over Alateng Heili.
“I'm going to go John Castaneda by decision.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 24 24
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
- Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
The MMA Yuda
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Picks John Castaneda.
“I'm picking John Castanada to win this fight.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 48.9% 22 23
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
Uselyis
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Can mix grappling with pressure and takedowns; opponent is primarily a striker.
“So, give me John Castano money line. I do have them by decision on tapology, but the play, the confident play as the first most confident pick of the week is going to be money line for John Castanada.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
- Method Accuracy 41.7% 5 7
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 5
Nick Kalikas
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 45.7% 16 19
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Rparqs
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Picks John Castaneda.
“So, I'm taking John Castanada. I like the reach advantage for him.”
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Chris White
Current pick evidence
Picked: John Castaneda
Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision
Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 37.1% 13 22
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 11.1% 1 8
Analyst picks: Drake Burden Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; James Blissett Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; Artem MMA Miss; Guy Bruhn Miss; Adam Martin Miss; Jon Litterine Miss; Fight Productions Miss; MikesMMAPicks Miss; Cole Shelton Miss; TonyHasDiedMMA Miss; Chris Schweppe Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; The MMA Yuda Miss; Uselyis Miss; Nick Kalikas Miss; Rparqs Miss; Chris White Miss.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drake Burden
Drake Burden
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Drake Burden picks John Castaneda. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · to win | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Drake Burden picks John Castaneda. Track record: winner called in 56 of 85 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
JakeGerberMMA
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Castaneda's superior footwork, leg kicks, and movement give him output advantage over Alateng Heili. “I'm going to go John Castanady here. I think he's going to be a little bit busier.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · to win | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Castaneda's superior footwork, leg kicks, and movement give him output advantage over Alateng Heili. “I'm going to go John Castanady here. I think he's going to be a little bit busier.” Track record: winner called in 83 of 127 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
James Blissett
James Blissett
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda · Dec Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Picks John Castaneda by decision. “I am going to go with him to get the win via decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · Dec | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks John Castaneda by decision. “I am going to go with him to get the win via decision.” Track record: winner called in 35 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
DFS By The Numbers
DFS By The Numbers
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda · Dec Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Picks John Castaneda by decision. “I'll pick him to win this fight and win this fight by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · Dec | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks John Castaneda by decision. “I'll pick him to win this fight and win this fight by decision.” Track record: winner called in 94 of 146 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
We Want Picks
We Want Picks
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Angelo picks canonical John Castaneda; the transcript's Castanada/sexy Mexi caption variants are reconciled to the official card. “I love John Castanada as a fighter. I've picked him many times before and I'm going to pick him here.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · to win | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Angelo picks canonical John Castaneda; the transcript's Castanada/sexy Mexi caption variants are reconciled to the official card. “I love John Castanada as a fighter. I've picked him many times before and I'm going to pick him here.” Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Artem MMA
Artem MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda · Dec Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Picks John Castaneda by decision. “So give me Castinator to win by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · Dec | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks John Castaneda by decision. “So give me Castinator to win by decision.” Track record: winner called in 43 of 71 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Guy Bruhn
Guy Bruhn
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Guy Bruhn picks John Castaneda. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · to win | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Guy Bruhn picks John Castaneda. Track record: winner called in 7 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Adam Martin
Adam Martin
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · to win | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article. Track record: winner called in 23 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Jon Litterine picks John Castaneda. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · to win | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Jon Litterine picks John Castaneda. Track record: winner called in 54 of 97 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Fight Productions
Fight Productions
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda · Dec Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Fight Productions picks John Castaneda by decision over Alateng Heili. “I'm going to take Castanada to win this one by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · Dec | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Fight Productions picks John Castaneda by decision over Alateng Heili. “I'm going to take Castanada to win this one by decision.” Track record: winner called in 23 of 42 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MikesMMAPicks
MikesMMAPicks
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · to win | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article. Track record: winner called in 19 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Cole Shelton
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Cole Shelton picks John Castaneda. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · to win | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Cole Shelton picks John Castaneda. Track record: winner called in 52 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
TonyHasDiedMMA
TonyHasDiedMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda · Dec Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Picks John Castaneda. “I'm going to go with John Castanada to get this one done by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · Dec | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks John Castaneda. “I'm going to go with John Castanada to get this one done by decision.” Track record: winner called in 15 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Chris Schweppe
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda · Dec Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Written pick by Chris Schweppe. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · Dec | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Written pick by Chris Schweppe. Track record: winner called in 36 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Greedo Plays MMA
Greedo Plays MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda · Dec Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Greedo Plays MMA picks John Castaneda by decision over Alateng Heili. “I'm going to go John Castaneda by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · Dec | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Greedo Plays MMA picks John Castaneda by decision over Alateng Heili. “I'm going to go John Castaneda by decision.” Track record: winner called in 24 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The MMA Yuda
The MMA Yuda
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Picks John Castaneda. “I'm picking John Castanada to win this fight.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · to win | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks John Castaneda. “I'm picking John Castanada to win this fight.” Track record: winner called in 22 of 45 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Uselyis
Uselyis
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Can mix grappling with pressure and takedowns; opponent is primarily a striker. “So, give me John Castano money line. I do have them by decision on tapology, but the play, the confident play as the first most confident pick of the week is going to be money line for John Castanada.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · to win | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Can mix grappling with pressure and takedowns; opponent is primarily a striker. “So, give me John Castano money line. I do have them by decision on tapology, but the play, the confident play as the first most confident pick of the week is going to be money line for John Castanada.” Track record: winner called in 20 of 41 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Nick Kalikas
Nick Kalikas
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · to win | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article. Track record: winner called in 16 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Rparqs
Rparqs
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Picks John Castaneda. “So, I'm taking John Castanada. I like the reach advantage for him.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · to win | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Picks John Castaneda. “So, I'm taking John Castanada. I like the reach advantage for him.” Track record: winner called in 9 of 24 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Chris White
Chris White
Current pick evidencePicked: John Castaneda Fight result: Alatengheili · Decision Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Castaneda · to win | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article. Track record: winner called in 13 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Only 0 of 20 called the upset.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Alatengheili · Decision · R3
Closest probability Claude put 35% on Alatengheili.
70%
Castaneda
30%
Alatengheili
PickCastaneda · DecisionActualAlatengheili · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missed
65%
Castaneda
35%
Alatengheili
PickCastaneda · DecisionActualAlatengheili · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missed
74%
Castaneda
26%
Alatengheili
PickCastaneda · DecisionActualAlatengheili · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedAI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot
AI Predictions
Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 26 Sep
All 3 models pick Castaneda
All three expect a win by decision, with win chances from 65% (Claude) to 74% (Gemini).
Method mix differs most for Decision: 62% (Claude) to 73% (ChatGPT), a 11-point range.
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ChatGPT
47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Castaneda by decision
Win probability: Castaneda 70%, Alatengheili 30%.
High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score. -
Claude
46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
Pick Castaneda by decision
Win probability: Castaneda 65%, Alatengheili 35%.
Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score. -
Gemini
50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
Pick Castaneda by decision
Win probability: Castaneda 74%, Alatengheili 26%.
High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
More detail2 areas differ
The models differ on confidence, probability distribution.
| Detail | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | |||
| Round | — | — | — |
| Detail | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | |||
| Round | — | — | — |
ChatGPT
Pick
Castaneda by decision
High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.Win probability: Castaneda 70%, Alatengheili 30%
Winner probability by method
KO/TKO, 21% overall: Castaneda 12%, Alatengheili 9%
Submission, 6% overall: Castaneda 5%, Alatengheili 1%
Decision, 73% overall: Castaneda 53%, Alatengheili 20%
gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Castaneda by decision
Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.Win probability: Castaneda 65%, Alatengheili 35%
Winner probability by method
KO/TKO, 25% overall: Castaneda 15%, Alatengheili 10%
Submission, 13% overall: Castaneda 8%, Alatengheili 5%
Decision, 62% overall: Castaneda 42%, Alatengheili 20%
claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Castaneda by decision
High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.Win probability: Castaneda 74%, Alatengheili 26%
Winner probability by method
KO/TKO, 24% overall: Castaneda 17%, Alatengheili 7%
Submission, 7% overall: Castaneda 5%, Alatengheili 2%
Decision, 69% overall: Castaneda 52%, Alatengheili 17%
Version not reported · 26 Sep50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
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