UFC Fight Night  26 Sep 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Ilimbek Akylbek defeats Mahammadali Osmanli by DQ

Loss Mahammadali Osmanli 12-2-0
Win Ilimbek Akylbek 10-3-0
Watch the fight
DQ · illegal knee

Round 1 · 2:19

Osmanli vs Akylbek — Bantamweight · UFC Fight Night

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Akylbek Uulu used his wrestling to bring the opening exchange to the mat.

Osmanli created danger with his hands, but an illegal knee changed the result while Akylbek Uulu was grounded.

Akylbek Uulu received the disqualification win at 2:19 of round one.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Osmanli

Osmanli has finished seven of his twelve professional wins by submission and is unbeaten in nine straight fights since his only loss, a first-round submission to Feyruz Haydari in August 2022. His route is to close distance, chain takedown attempts and hunt the same guillotine, anaconda and rear-naked choke finishes that have carried most of his career, most recently a second-round guillotine over Bakhtovar Yunusov in November 2025.

Case for Akylbek

Akylbek Uulu has his own finishing identity — five of his nine wins by submission, mostly the rear-naked choke, including each of his last two — but he has been finished by strikes in all three of his career losses, most jarringly a 15-second TKO loss to Dzhokhar Eskiev in August 2024. His route is to get underneath Osmanli and find the choke before Osmanli's hands do the same to him.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Akylbek Uulu can close distance and find his rear-naked choke before absorbing the kind of clean strikes that produced all three of his career losses.
  • Whether Osmanli's own submission chaining — seven finishes in twelve wins — controls the fight if it hits the mat first.
  • Whether Akylbek Uulu's two-fight submission streak, which snapped back-to-back TKO losses in 2024, continues against a fellow finisher.
  • Which fighter's choke game — Osmanli's guillotine-and-anaconda mix or Akylbek Uulu's rear-naked choke — closes the fight if it goes to the floor.
Records & career stats
Osmanli vs Akylbek
12-1-0
Record
9-3-0
4-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
Not published
Azerbaijan
Nationality
Kyrgyzstan
22
Age
23
1.77 m
Height — Osmanli leads
170 cm
182 cm
Reach — Osmanli leads
165 cm
Not published
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
83%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
Not published
3
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Osmanli leads
1
7
Wins by submissionSub wins — Osmanli leads
5
2.59
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.59
2.59
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.59
50%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Akylbek leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
54%
50%
Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
Not published
02:19
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
02:19

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Drake Burden
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Drake Burden picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 56 29
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (85 calls)
James Blissett
Hear it — 28:19

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli by knockout.

“Ashmanley wins via knockout as my official prediction.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
  • Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
View full track record (54 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 17:01

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli by first-round knockout.

“I am going Os Manley to win this fight by first round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Artem MMA
Hear it — 20:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli by knockout.

“I am going to be picking Muhammad Ali Osmani by knockout over Akbeck in this matchup.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 60.6% 43 28
  • Method Accuracy 63.9% 23 13
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
View full track record (71 calls)
Adam Martin
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
View full track record (40 calls)
Jon Litterine
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Jon Litterine picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.7% 54 43
  • Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 5 15
View full track record (97 calls)
Fight Productions
Hear it — 30:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Fight Productions picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli by second-round submission over Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu.

“I'm going to go round two sub for Osmanli.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.8% 23 19
  • Method Accuracy 73.9% 17 6
  • Round Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (42 calls)
MikesMMAPicks
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.3% 19 16
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
View full track record (35 calls)
Cole Shelton
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Written pick by Cole Shelton in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.5% 52 47
  • Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 17.6% 3 14
View full track record (99 calls)
TonyHasDiedMMA
Hear it — 26:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli.

“And so, I'm going to pick him to win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 51.7% 15 14
  • Method Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 4
View full track record (29 calls)
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Written pick by Chris Schweppe.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (72 calls)
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 45:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · Sub · Round 1

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Greedo Plays MMA picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli by first-round submission over Ilimbek Akylbek.

“I'm going to take Mehemmedeli Osmanli by first-round submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 24 24
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (48 calls)
Uselyis
Hear it — 5:02

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

More dangerous and versatile; looks clean on feet and strong on ground.

“I'm going to go Osman Lee as my fifth most confident pick”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
  • Method Accuracy 41.7% 5 7
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 5
View full track record (41 calls)
Nick Kalikas
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 45.7% 16 19
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (35 calls)
Chris Cross
Hear it — 1:20

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Chris Cross picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli without specifying a method or round; the caption name is reconciled to the official UFC Vegas 121 matchup.

“I like Azamat Lee to get the win here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 40.0% 8 12
  • Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
View full track record (20 calls)
Rparqs
Hear it — 21:08

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · Sub

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli.

“Give me Muhammad Ali Osmani to win by submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
  • Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
View full track record (24 calls)
The MMA Yuda
Hear it — 31:53

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilimbek Akylbek

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Picks Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu.

“I'm going to pick Ulu to win this fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 48.9% 22 23
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (45 calls)
Chris White
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilimbek Akylbek

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 37.1% 13 22
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 11.1% 1 8
View full track record (35 calls)

Analyst picks: Drake Burden Miss; James Blissett Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; Artem MMA Miss; Adam Martin Miss; Jon Litterine Miss; Fight Productions Miss; MikesMMAPicks Miss; Cole Shelton Miss; TonyHasDiedMMA Miss; Chris Schweppe Miss; Greedo Plays MMA Miss; The MMA Yuda Hit; Uselyis Miss; Nick Kalikas Miss; Chris Cross Miss; Rparqs Miss; Chris White Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Drake Burden85 resolved calls
Drake Burden
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Drake Burden picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 56 29
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (85 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · to winAkylbek · DQ R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
James Blissett54 resolved calls
James Blissett
Hear it — 28:19

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli by knockout.

“Ashmanley wins via knockout as my official prediction.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
  • Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
View full track record (54 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · KO/TKOAkylbek · DQ R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 17:01

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli by first-round knockout.

“I am going Os Manley to win this fight by first round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · KO/TKO · R1Akylbek · DQ R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Artem MMA71 resolved calls
Artem MMA
Hear it — 20:48

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · KO/TKO

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli by knockout.

“I am going to be picking Muhammad Ali Osmani by knockout over Akbeck in this matchup.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 60.6% 43 28
  • Method Accuracy 63.9% 23 13
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
View full track record (71 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · KO/TKOAkylbek · DQ R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Adam Martin40 resolved calls
Adam Martin
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
View full track record (40 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · to winAkylbek · DQ R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Jon Litterine97 resolved calls
Jon Litterine
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Jon Litterine picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.7% 54 43
  • Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 5 15
View full track record (97 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · to winAkylbek · DQ R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Fight Productions42 resolved calls
Fight Productions
Hear it — 30:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Fight Productions picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli by second-round submission over Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu.

“I'm going to go round two sub for Osmanli.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.8% 23 19
  • Method Accuracy 73.9% 17 6
  • Round Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (42 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · Sub · R2Akylbek · DQ R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MikesMMAPicks35 resolved calls
MikesMMAPicks
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Written pick by MikesMMAPicks in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.3% 19 16
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
View full track record (35 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · to winAkylbek · DQ R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Cole Shelton99 resolved calls
Cole Shelton
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Written pick by Cole Shelton in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.5% 52 47
  • Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 17.6% 3 14
View full track record (99 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · to winAkylbek · DQ R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
TonyHasDiedMMA29 resolved calls
TonyHasDiedMMA
Hear it — 26:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli.

“And so, I'm going to pick him to win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 51.7% 15 14
  • Method Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 4
View full track record (29 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · to winAkylbek · DQ R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Chris Schweppe72 resolved calls
Chris Schweppe
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Written pick by Chris Schweppe.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (72 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · Sub · R2Akylbek · DQ R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Greedo Plays MMA48 resolved calls
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 45:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · Sub · Round 1

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Greedo Plays MMA picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli by first-round submission over Ilimbek Akylbek.

“I'm going to take Mehemmedeli Osmanli by first-round submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 24 24
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (48 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · Sub · R1Akylbek · DQ R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Yuda45 resolved calls
The MMA Yuda
Hear it — 31:53

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilimbek Akylbek

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Picks Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu.

“I'm going to pick Ulu to win this fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 48.9% 22 23
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (45 calls)
Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 27.3%. Akylbek · to winAkylbek · DQ R1HitNot calledNot called
Uselyis41 resolved calls
Uselyis
Hear it — 5:02

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

More dangerous and versatile; looks clean on feet and strong on ground.

“I'm going to go Osman Lee as my fifth most confident pick”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
  • Method Accuracy 41.7% 5 7
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 5
View full track record (41 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · to winAkylbek · DQ R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Nick Kalikas35 resolved calls
Nick Kalikas
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Written pick by Nick Kalikas in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 45.7% 16 19
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (35 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · to winAkylbek · DQ R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Chris Cross20 resolved calls
Chris Cross
Hear it — 1:20

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Chris Cross picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli without specifying a method or round; the caption name is reconciled to the official UFC Vegas 121 matchup.

“I like Azamat Lee to get the win here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 40.0% 8 12
  • Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
View full track record (20 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · to winAkylbek · DQ R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Rparqs24 resolved calls
Rparqs
Hear it — 21:08

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mahammadali Osmanli · Sub

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Picks Mehemmedeli Osmanli.

“Give me Muhammad Ali Osmani to win by submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 37.5% 9 15
  • Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
View full track record (24 calls)
Sportsbook Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · SubAkylbek · DQ R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Chris White35 resolved calls
Chris White
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilimbek Akylbek

Fight result: Ilimbek Akylbek · DQ

Written pick by Chris White in the cited pre-event article.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 37.1% 13 22
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 11.1% 1 8
View full track record (35 calls)
Sportsbook Underdog call, market price 27.3%. Akylbek · to winAkylbek · DQ R1HitNot calledNot called

Only 2 of 18 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Akylbek · DQ · R1

Closest probability ChatGPT put 33% on Akylbek.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
67% Osmanli
33% Akylbek
PickOsmanli · KO/TKO · R2ActualAkylbek · DQ · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
72% Osmanli
28% Akylbek
PickOsmanli · Submission · R2ActualAkylbek · DQ · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
74% Osmanli
26% Akylbek
PickOsmanli · Submission · R2ActualAkylbek · DQ · R1
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedSportsbook favouriteSportsbook favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Sportsbook favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 26 Sep

All 3 models pick Osmanli

They differ on how the fight ends, with win chances from 67% (ChatGPT) to 74% (Gemini).

Method mix differs most for Decision: 27% (Claude) to 37% (ChatGPT), a 10-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Osmanli by KO/TKO in round 2

    Win probability: Osmanli 67%, Akylbek 33%.

    gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep

    Medium confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Osmanli by submission in round 2

    Win probability: Osmanli 72%, Akylbek 28%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep

    High confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Osmanli by submission in round 2

    Win probability: Osmanli 74%, Akylbek 26%.

    Version not reported · 26 Sep

    High confidence
More detail3 areas differ

The models differ on finish method, confidence, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 2Round 2Round 2
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 2Round 2Round 2

ChatGPT

Pick

Osmanli by KO/TKO in round 2

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Osmanli 67%, Akylbek 33%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 29% overall: Osmanli 25%, Akylbek 4%
Submission, 34% overall: Osmanli 24%, Akylbek 10%
Decision, 37% overall: Osmanli 18%, Akylbek 19%

gpt-6-astra · 25 Sep47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Osmanli by submission in round 2

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Osmanli 72%, Akylbek 28%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 30% overall: Osmanli 25%, Akylbek 5%
Submission, 43% overall: Osmanli 35%, Akylbek 8%
Decision, 27% overall: Osmanli 12%, Akylbek 15%

claude-sonnet-5 · 25 Sep46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Osmanli by submission in round 2

High confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Osmanli 74%, Akylbek 26%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 28% overall: Osmanli 22%, Akylbek 6%
Submission, 38% overall: Osmanli 32%, Akylbek 6%
Decision, 34% overall: Osmanli 20%, Akylbek 14%

Version not reported · 26 Sep50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

Odds

How the market called it — the final pre-fight line against the result, not betting advice.

Market read · 6 sportsbooks

73% Mahammadali Osmanli
27% Ilimbek Akylbek

Favoured: Osmanli (73%) Upset

Akylbek defeats Osmanli · DQ R1

Final pre-fight line · as of 26 Sep 21:29 UTC · 6 sportsbooks · Not betting advice · 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.