MMA analyst publishing UFC full-card prediction and breakdown videos.
JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗Scorecard
Called 44 of 62 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner 44 18
-
Method
13 13 18 18
-
Round
4 5 35 18
of 58 picks with a known pre-fight price
Hit Miss Never called Winner missed
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price.
UFC Fight Night
Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Event scorecard
- Winner 8 4
-
Method
4 4 4
-
Round
2 2 4 4
of 11 picks with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOG Rodrigues · KO/TKO | Rodrigues · Dec | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Reads it as Rodrigues early or Hernandez late, and takes Rodrigues on the more patient approach: right hands and knees to the body until Hernandez slows and backs away, with Rodrigues' ground game good enough to stall the early takedowns. “But I'm going to give the edge to Robocop with his more patient approach.” | |||||
| FAV de Ridder · Sub | de Ridder · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Expects Dolidze to struggle in the clinch, de Ridder to tap away with knees to the body and take him down, then slide into a dominant position as Dolidze slows later in the fight and finish with an arm triangle. “RDR gets him down and ends up finding a submission. I like RDR at 205 a lot.” | |||||
| DOG Spivac · to win | Petrino · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Spivac as the underdog, rating him a well-rounded heavyweight with sharp striking and calling the jab money against Delija. Expects him to outscore Petrino with the jab, right hand and leg kicks provided he avoids a big shot, and notes Petrino is very hittable. Adds that Spivac has the grappling fallback Petrino lacks if the striking goes badly. “Give me Sergey here.” | |||||
| FAV Judice · KO/TKO · R2 | Judice · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Credits Judice's movement, ring craft and improved takedown defence, and judges Chaves's ground game not good enough to trouble her -- noting Juliana Miller is far better on the ground than Chaves and still could not exploit it. Expects kicks to the body or a set-up high kick to end it. “Give me Carly Judice by second round knockout.” | |||||
| FAV Dyer · KO/TKO · R2 | Dyer · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Sees Dyer walking Reed down, blasting leg kicks, attacking the body and bringing combinations around the guard until Reed melts along the fence and the referee steps in. Rates Reed as technical but not dangerous enough to trouble Dyer, and says Dyer's ground game concerns are overstated -- she could equally outstrike Reed comfortably over fifteen minutes. “Give me Chanel Dyer by round two knockout.” | |||||
| FAV McVey · KO/TKO · R1 | McVey · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Frames it as either McVey by TKO or Schultz by submission, and leans McVey on improved takedown defence, his clinch game and his range striking. Expects body work to pay off against an opponent who has slowed in previous fights, then follow-up ground and pound. Openly conflicted -- says he could see it going either way and that the fight is stressing him out. “I'll give the slight lean to Jackson McVey by um by round one TKO.” | |||||
| FAV Jones · Dec | Mederos · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls it a good, competitive fight and rates Mederos durable, but gives Jones the edge as the better grappler with more power. Expects Jones to drain Mederos's gas tank, then open up on the feet -- walking him down and advancing forward in a way that scores well with the judges. Scores it 29-28. “It's going to be Mason Jones via a dog fight. I think he gets it done by a competitive decision.” | |||||
| Padilla · Dec | Padilla · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Reads it as competitive and credits Haqparast's movement and high guard, suggesting he would be wise to work the body. Leans Padilla on forward pressure, with elbows and knees the deciding weapons -- expecting accumulated damage to edge it on the cards. Notes he has repeatedly backed Padilla as an underdog. “So slight lean for me towards Taco Padilla.” | |||||
| FAV Young · Dec | Dorsainvil · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls it competitive and explicitly warns not to count Dorsainvil out, rating him as genuinely good and deserving another opportunity even in defeat. Leans Young because Dorsainvil does not always use his reach well and crashes into the pocket, which should let Young land counter combinations and break him down as the fight goes. “I'm going to say 2928 split decision. Gage Young gets it done in a close one.” | |||||
| FAV Douglas · KO/TKO · R1 | Emmers · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Concedes a route for Emmers -- movement, sticking and moving, catching Douglas coming in, mixing in takedowns to win minutes and drain him -- and says he likes Emmers and rates him game. Picks against him anyway on Douglas's power, citing what he did to Juicy J and to Camtigo on DWCS, and calls it simply a bad matchup. “So, I feel like he lands on Emmers and puts them out pretty bad in the very first round.” | |||||
| FAV Barbosa · KO/TKO | Barbosa · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Allows Kuse could pull something off if he can eat the big shots moving forward, and grants him sneaky kicks and a decent ground game. Sides with Barbosa on power against solid opposition, expecting a big right hand to sneak around the guard at some point in the first or second round for yet another knockout. “but I got to go Barbosa, man. All it takes is one shot.” | |||||
| FAV Wint · KO/TKO · R1 | Wint · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
Rates Chatman's boxing as solid and actually decent, then calls it a bad matchup: beating Wint requires surviving early danger to drag the fight long. Leans on Wint's athletic advantage -- which he ranks above much of the heavyweight division -- plus one-shot power, a good ground game and the takedown defence shown against Matt Adams on the Contender Series. Discloses he is a fan from Wint's FAU football days and is rooting for him. “Round one, knockout.” | |||||
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner 6 5
-
Method
4 2 5
- Round rightNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
of 11 picks with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAV Orolbai · Sub | Wells · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Expects Orolbai to hurt Wells, use takedowns and dominant position, then find a submission. | |||||
| FAV Brahimaj · Sub · R2 | Magny · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls the fight a coin flip but formally picks Brahimaj by second-round submission after the weigh-in caveat. | |||||
| FAV Fernando · KO/TKO | Fernando · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Favors Fernando's technical striking and body work, trusting his takedown defense for a later-stage knockout. | |||||
| FAV Luque · Sub · R2 | Gore · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Cautiously backs Luque to club and submit Gore in round two. | |||||
| FAV Johnson · Dec | Johnson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Thinks Johnson's pressure will carry a decision despite McConico being the more technical fighter. | |||||
| FAV Turner · KO/TKO | Turner · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Backs Turner for an early knockout while acknowledging Fernandes's leg-kick route. | |||||
| FAV Álvarez · Sub | Njokuani · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Predicts Álvarez to club and submit Njokuani, without a single round call. | |||||
| FAV Ribovics · KO/TKO | Ribovics · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Favors Ribovics by knockout, with no single round specified. | |||||
| FAV Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Abdul-Malik by TKO in either round one or two, so no single round is recorded. | |||||
| FAV Dern · Sub | Dern · Dec R5 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Favors Dern's striking and jiu-jitsu edge and explicitly predicts a submission without a single round. | |||||
| FAV Makhachev · Dec | Makhachev · Dec R5 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Expects Makhachev's wrestling and positional control to narrowly win a competitive decision. | |||||
UFC Fight Night
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner 6 2
-
Method
2 4 2
-
Round
1 2 3 2
of 7 picks with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAV Salkilld · Dec | Salkilld · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Salkilld by decision. | |||||
| FAV Ferreira · Sub · R2 | Ferreira · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Takes Ferreira by second-round submission. | |||||
| FAV Miller · Dec | Miller · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Leans to a 30-27 decision, describing a striking master class for Miller. | |||||
| FAV Sutherland · Dec | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Sutherland by a 30-27 scorecard. | |||||
| FAV Nurgozhay · KO/TKO · R1 | Nurgozhay · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Takes Nurgozhay by first-round knockout. | |||||
| FAV Asplund · KO/TKO · R2 | Asplund · Dec | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Takes Asplund by second-round TKO. | |||||
| DOG Miranda · Dec | Sousa · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Miranda by decision. | |||||
| Miller · Sub | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes Miller by submission, hedging the round. | |||||
UFC Fight Night
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Event scorecard
- Winner 6 2
-
Method
3 3 2
-
Round
1 1 4 2
of 8 picks with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAV Medić · KO/TKO · R1 | Medić · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Sees a big speed and timing gap in Medic's favour, with Rodriguez at almost 40 charging in with his hands down, and expects Medic to slide out of range and land the left hand early. “I'm siding with [Uros] Medic by a round one knockout. He's too fast, too explosive right now.” | |||||
| FAV Stirling · Dec | Stirling · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
A self-described Blachowicz fan, he says Jan has slowed enough that Stirling catches him at the right time, staying a step ahead behind the jab and leg kicks. | |||||
| FAV Rakić · Dec | Rakić · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Calls Tybura slow, sloppy and washed and says Rakic should be faster and sharper even in his heavyweight debut, settling on a wide, coasting decision. | |||||
| FAV Valentin · Dec | Valentin · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Rates Valentin the more durable and dangerous striker with jiu-jitsu good enough to neutralise Todorovic's wrestling, and questions Todorovic's chin. | |||||
| FAV Cepo · KO/TKO | Urbina · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Openly says he is not sold on Cepo and thinks Urbina is technically the better fighter, but sides with Cepo's power and chaotic early aggression overwhelming him. | |||||
| FAV Oliveira · KO/TKO · R2 | Oliveira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Thinks Elliott has been badly overrated and calls this a layup for Oliveira, who has a six-and-a-half-inch reach edge, real power and a solid gas tank. | |||||
| FAV Klein · Dec | Musayev · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Rates Klein faster, sharper and the more well-rounded striker with sneaky submission skills, and thinks Musayev's main path is a single big damaging shot. | |||||
| FAV Grad · Dec | Grad · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Calls this a genuine coin flip and says Buzukja may be the sharper striker, but leans Grad because his forward pressure and activity should look better to the judges. | |||||
UFC Fight Night
Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Event scorecard
- Winner 10 2
- Method rightCalls the winner, not the method
- Round rightCalls the winner, not the round
of 10 picks with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAV Ankalaev · to win | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview. | |||||
| FAV Kuniev · to win | Kuniev · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Rizvan Kuniev as the full-card pick in this preview. | |||||
| Dulatov vs Turman | Dulatov · to win | Upcoming | |||
| FAV Sola · to win | Sola · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview. | |||||
| FAV Walker · to win | Walker · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Valter Walker as the full-card pick in this preview. | |||||
| FAV Tuchalov · to win | Tuchalov · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Magomed Tuchalov as the full-card pick in this preview. | |||||
| FAV Zaynukov · to win | Zaynukov · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Magomed Zaynukov as the full-card pick in this preview. | |||||
| DOG Davis · to win | Aliev · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Names Mike Davis as the full-card pick in this preview. | |||||
| Temirov · to win | Temirov · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Ramazan Temirov as the full-card pick in this preview. | |||||
| FAV Patterson · to win | Patterson · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview. | |||||
| FAV Vagaev · to win | Vagaev · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview. | |||||
| Jacoby · to win | Saidov · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Names Dustin Jacoby as the full-card pick in this preview. | |||||
| FAV Hussein · to win | Hussein · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Abdul Hussein as the full-card pick in this preview. | |||||
UFC Fight Night
Du Plessis vs. Usman
Event scorecard
- Winner 8 3
- Method rightCalls the winner, not the method
- Round rightCalls the winner, not the round
of 11 picks with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAV Barbosa · to win | Barbosa · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Barbosa's UFC experience and grappling over the debuting Melisano. | |||||
| DOG Delgado · to win | Delgado · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Delgado's striking and shot selection over Bashi's takedown-first route. | |||||
| FAV Duncan · to win | Duncan · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Duncan's speed, movement and improving game against an aging Cannonier. | |||||
| FAV Coria · to win | Coria · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Coria's better boxing and body work to separate him from Nicoll. | |||||
| FAV Du Plessis · to win | Du Plessis · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Du Plessis in a competitive matchup, expecting the layoff to have addressed his defensive wrestling. | |||||
| FAV Hines · to win | Harris · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Hines' more complete game and pace, while acknowledging Harris' one-shot danger. | |||||
| FAV Hooper · to win | Hooper · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Gives Hooper another chance on the strength of his high-level jiu-jitsu edge over Ramirez. | |||||
| FAV McMillen · to win | McMillen · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes McMillen to thrive in a chaotic, competitive matchup with Montes. | |||||
| FAV Kline · to win | Kline · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Kline's superior long-range striking and developing grappling over Ricci. | |||||
| FAV Rodrigues Jr. · to win | Franco · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Rodrigues' power and pressure over Franco's inconsistent, hesitant form. | |||||
| FAV Ko · to win | Lebosnoyani · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Ko to neutralize Lebosnoyani's offense with responsible defense, wrestling and control. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind JakeGerberMMA's logged calls.