UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues  22 Aug 2026 · Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California, US

Gregory Rodrigues defeats Anthony Hernandez by unanimous decision

Loss Anthony Hernandez 15-4-0
Win Gregory Rodrigues 20-6-0
Watch the fight
Unanimous decision

Round 5 · 5:00

Hernandez vs Rodrigues · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Rodrigues established range immediately, landing leg kicks and heavy striking to dominate the opening rounds.

Hernandez rallied in round three, mixing in takedown attempts to change the fight's shape.

Rodrigues found a second wind in round four, and over the final five minutes he defended Hernandez's takedown attempts while continuing to land the more impactful blows to close out the decision.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Hernandez

Nine of Hernandez's 15 wins are submissions, and he shoots more than anyone else on this card — 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy, alongside 1.60 submission attempts per 15. His route is to convert those entries before this settles into a striking match.

Case for Rodrigues

Rodrigues has stopped 12 of his 19 opponents and carries the higher output at 5.53 significant strikes landed per minute against 4.57. His route is to stay upright behind 75% takedown defence and let the power decide it.

What We Were Watching For

  • Hernandez's 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes — the highest rate on the card — against Rodrigues's 75% takedown defence.
  • Rodrigues absorbs 4.78 significant strikes per minute to Hernandez's 3.10, and Hernandez lands at 60% accuracy.
  • Both finish at almost the same rate (80% against 79%), so a decision would be the outlier rather than the expectation.
  • Hernandez averages 10:36 a fight to Rodrigues's 08:28 — more than two minutes of separation in how long they usually work.
Records & career stats
Hernandez vs Rodrigues
Hernandez Rodrigues
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.42 5.78
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 48% 50%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.69 4.57
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 68% 85%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 80% 79%
15-3-0
Record
19-6-0
4-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
United States
Nationality
Brazil
32
Age
34
1.83 m
Height — Rodrigues leads
1.91 m
191 cm
Reach
191 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
80%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
79%
3
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Rodrigues leads
12
9
Wins by submissionSub wins — Hernandez leads
3
4.42
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Rodrigues leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.78
3.69
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Hernandez leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.57
48%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
50%
68%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Rodrigues leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
85%
11:38
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
09:34
Team Fluffy
Team
Kill Cliff FC

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (2)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Livid Larry MMA
Hear it — 21:26

Current pick evidence

Picked: Anthony Hernandez · KO/TKO

Fight result: Gregory Rodrigues · Decision

Livid Larry MMA picks Anthony Hernandez by a late-round ground-and-pound TKO without committing to a specific round.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 71.4% 20 8
  • Method Accuracy 84.6% 11 2
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (28 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 34:02

Current pick evidence

Picked: Anthony Hernandez · Sub · Round 3

Fight result: Gregory Rodrigues · Decision

Picks Anthony Hernandez to win.

“I'm going to go Anthony Fluffy Hernandez, third round rear naked choke.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
James Blissett
Hear it — 17:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Anthony Hernandez · KO/TKO · Round 4

Fight result: Gregory Rodrigues · Decision

Lucrative James picks Anthony Hernandez by fourth-round ground-and-pound TKO.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
  • Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
View full track record (54 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 37:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Anthony Hernandez

Fight result: Gregory Rodrigues · Decision

Hernandez's grappling volume (six takedowns per 15 minutes) and his ability to absorb head strikes decide it, so long as Rodrigues head-hunts for the knockout instead of attacking the body — the one route Angelo flags as Hernandez's weakness, citing how Kevin Holland and Sean Strickland both beat him. Notes he is surprised Hernandez is as short as -175 rather than -120, but takes him anyway and expects a nail-biter.

“I am going to pick him. Anthony Fluffy Hernandez, it's going to be a nail-biter, guys.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Jesse Holland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Anthony Hernandez · KO/TKO

Fight result: Gregory Rodrigues · Decision

MMA Mania's UFC Sacramento preview has Jesse Holland picking Anthony Hernandez by technical knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
  • Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (55 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 41:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gregory Rodrigues · KO/TKO

Fight result: Gregory Rodrigues · Decision

Picks Gregory Rodrigues by TKO.

“I'm going to go with Gregory Rodrigues by TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 72:47

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gregory Rodrigues · KO/TKO

Fight result: Gregory Rodrigues · Decision

Reads it as Rodrigues early or Hernandez late, and takes Rodrigues on the more patient approach: right hands and knees to the body until Hernandez slows and backs away, with Rodrigues' ground game good enough to stall the early takedowns.

“But I'm going to give the edge to Robocop with his more patient approach.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)

Analyst picks: Livid Larry MMA Miss; MMA JOEY Miss; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; James Blissett Miss; We Want Picks Miss; Jesse Holland Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Livid Larry MMA28 resolved calls
Livid Larry MMA
Hear it — 21:26

Current pick evidence

Picked: Anthony Hernandez · KO/TKO

Fight result: Gregory Rodrigues · Decision

Livid Larry MMA picks Anthony Hernandez by a late-round ground-and-pound TKO without committing to a specific round.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 71.4% 20 8
  • Method Accuracy 84.6% 11 2
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (28 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Hernandez · KO/TKORodrigues · Dec R5MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 34:02

Current pick evidence

Picked: Anthony Hernandez · Sub · Round 3

Fight result: Gregory Rodrigues · Decision

Picks Anthony Hernandez to win.

“I'm going to go Anthony Fluffy Hernandez, third round rear naked choke.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Hernandez · Sub · R3Rodrigues · Dec R5MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 41:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gregory Rodrigues · KO/TKO

Fight result: Gregory Rodrigues · Decision

Picks Gregory Rodrigues by TKO.

“I'm going to go with Gregory Rodrigues by TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 33.5%. Rodrigues · KO/TKORodrigues · Dec R5HitMissNot called
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 72:47

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gregory Rodrigues · KO/TKO

Fight result: Gregory Rodrigues · Decision

Reads it as Rodrigues early or Hernandez late, and takes Rodrigues on the more patient approach: right hands and knees to the body until Hernandez slows and backs away, with Rodrigues' ground game good enough to stall the early takedowns.

“But I'm going to give the edge to Robocop with his more patient approach.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 33.5%. Rodrigues · KO/TKORodrigues · Dec R5HitMissNot called
James Blissett54 resolved calls
James Blissett
Hear it — 17:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Anthony Hernandez · KO/TKO · Round 4

Fight result: Gregory Rodrigues · Decision

Lucrative James picks Anthony Hernandez by fourth-round ground-and-pound TKO.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
  • Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
View full track record (54 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Hernandez · KO/TKO · R4Rodrigues · Dec R5MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 37:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Anthony Hernandez

Fight result: Gregory Rodrigues · Decision

Hernandez's grappling volume (six takedowns per 15 minutes) and his ability to absorb head strikes decide it, so long as Rodrigues head-hunts for the knockout instead of attacking the body — the one route Angelo flags as Hernandez's weakness, citing how Kevin Holland and Sean Strickland both beat him. Notes he is surprised Hernandez is as short as -175 rather than -120, but takes him anyway and expects a nail-biter.

“I am going to pick him. Anthony Fluffy Hernandez, it's going to be a nail-biter, guys.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Hernandez · to winRodrigues · Dec R5MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Jesse Holland55 resolved calls
Jesse Holland
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Anthony Hernandez · KO/TKO

Fight result: Gregory Rodrigues · Decision

MMA Mania's UFC Sacramento preview has Jesse Holland picking Anthony Hernandez by technical knockout.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 49.1% 27 28
  • Method Accuracy 55.6% 15 12
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (55 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Hernandez · KO/TKORodrigues · Dec R5MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

Only 2 of 7 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Rodrigues · Decision · R5

Closest probability ChatGPT and Gemini put 38% on Rodrigues.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
62% Hernandez
38% Rodrigues
PickHernandez · Submission · R4ActualRodrigues · Decision · R5
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
67% Hernandez
33% Rodrigues
PickHernandez · DecisionActualRodrigues · Decision · R5
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
62% Hernandez
38% Rodrigues
PickHernandez · Submission · R3ActualRodrigues · Decision · R5
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 22 Aug

All 3 models pick Hernandez

They differ on how the fight ends, with win chances from 62% (ChatGPT and Gemini) to 67% (Claude).

Method mix differs most for KO/TKO: 40% (ChatGPT and Gemini) to 45% (Claude), a 5-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Hernandez by submission in round 4

    Win probability: Hernandez 62%, Rodrigues 38%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 22 Aug

    Medium confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Hernandez by decision

    Win probability: Hernandez 67%, Rodrigues 33%.

    claude-opus-5 · 22 Aug

    Medium confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Hernandez by submission in round 3

    Win probability: Hernandez 62%, Rodrigues 38%.

    gemini-3.1-pro-high · 22 Aug

    Medium confidence

ChatGPT reads the fight as “Anthony Hernandez is the pick, with fourth-round submission the most likely specific outcome. The locked distribution favors Hernandez overall, while Rodrigues has the larger knockout probability. The model expects Hernandez's chances to improve if the fight extends beyond the early exchanges.”

What to watch

  • The locked distribution gives Hernandez a 62% overall win probability.
  • Submission is Hernandez's leading method at 27%, while knockout is Rodrigues' leading method at 28%.
  • The forecast's fourth-round finish reflects a model inference that Hernandez's grappling-oriented path becomes more influential as the fight progresses.

Swing factor

Whether Hernandez can survive Rodrigues' higher-probability knockout threat long enough to impose the submission path favored by the model.

More detail3 areas differ

The models differ on finish method, round timing, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 4—Round 3
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 4—Round 3

ChatGPT

Pick

Hernandez by submission in round 4

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Hernandez 62%, Rodrigues 38%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 40% overall: Hernandez 12%, Rodrigues 28%
Submission, 29% overall: Hernandez 27%, Rodrigues 2%
Decision, 31% overall: Hernandez 23%, Rodrigues 8%

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Anthony Hernandez is the pick, with fourth-round submission the most likely specific outcome. The locked distribution favors Hernandez overall, while Rodrigues has the larger knockout probability. The model expects Hernandez's chances to improve if the fight extends beyond the early exchanges.

Keys to victory

  • The locked distribution gives Hernandez a 62% overall win probability.
  • Submission is Hernandez's leading method at 27%, while knockout is Rodrigues' leading method at 28%.
  • The forecast's fourth-round finish reflects a model inference that Hernandez's grappling-oriented path becomes more influential as the fight progresses.

X-factor

Whether Hernandez can survive Rodrigues' higher-probability knockout threat long enough to impose the submission path favored by the model.

gpt-5.6-sol · 22 Aug47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Hernandez by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Hernandez 67%, Rodrigues 33%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 45% overall: Hernandez 17%, Rodrigues 28%
Submission, 25% overall: Hernandez 24%, Rodrigues 1%
Decision, 30% overall: Hernandez 26%, Rodrigues 4%

How Claude sees the fight

Anthony Hernandez ~67%, Gregory Rodrigues ~33%: front-loaded power vs. back-loaded grind over five rounds. Rodrigues holds the only fast-kill button (1.01 KD/15min, two R1 KOs in his last three), and Hernandez's R3 loss to Strickland shows he is hittable. But 5.88 TD/15min against a man with 16% TD accuracy and an 8:28 average fight time is a structural mismatch, and Rodrigues has never seen round five — he gassed into an early-R4 stoppage vs. Cannonier. Expect Hernandez to survive an ugly first six minutes, then grind toward a late RNC, TKO, or wide decision.

Keys to victory

  • Takedown mismatch: Anthony Hernandez averages 5.88 TD/15min at ~48% accuracy vs. Gregory Rodrigues' 16% TD accuracy and 75% takedown defense
  • Deep water: Hernandez averages 10:36 with R4/R5 finishes of Pereira and Dolidze; Rodrigues averages 8:28 and gassed into an early-R4 stoppage vs. Cannonier
  • Gregory Rodrigues' path is front-loaded power: 1.01 KD/15min vs. 0.11, against an Anthony Hernandez stopped by strikes just six months ago

X-factor

Anthony Hernandez's re-tool at Xtreme Couture plus home-crowd emotion in Sacramento could push him to over-press early — exactly the clean R1-R2 counter window Gregory Rodrigues needs.

claude-opus-5 · 22 Aug46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Hernandez by submission in round 3

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Hernandez 62%, Rodrigues 38%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 40% overall: Hernandez 15%, Rodrigues 25%
Submission, 30% overall: Hernandez 25%, Rodrigues 5%
Decision, 30% overall: Hernandez 22%, Rodrigues 8%

How Gemini sees the fight

Anthony Hernandez's relentless wrestling pressure and superior cardio over 5 rounds make him the favorite to weather Gregory Rodrigues's early knockout threat and eventually secure a submission or late TKO.

Keys to victory

  • Hernandez's high-volume grappling and relentless pace.
  • Rodrigues's explosive knockout power and early finishing threat.
  • Cardio dynamics in a scheduled 5-round main event favoring Hernandez.

X-factor

Rodrigues's elite BJJ credentials potentially neutralizing Hernandez's primary submission attacks and keeping the fight standing.

gemini-3.1-pro-high · 22 Aug50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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