Final · 22 Aug 2026

Gregory Rodrigues defeats Anthony Hernandez by unanimous decision

Win Gregory Rodrigues 20-6-0

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

22 Aug 2026 · Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California, US

Decision · unanimousUnanimous decision

5:00

View fight recap
Loss Fluffy Anthony Hernandez 15-4-0

Hernandez vs Rodrigues · UFC Fight Night

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Rodrigues established range immediately, landing leg kicks and heavy striking to dominate the opening rounds.

Hernandez rallied in round three, mixing in takedown attempts to change the fight's shape.

Rodrigues found a second wind in round four, and over the final five minutes he defended Hernandez's takedown attempts while continuing to land the more impactful blows to close out the decision.

Watch

More from this fight.

More videos · 4 clips
Style file — UFC Fight Night
Style file — UFC Fight Night

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Result
Rodrigues def. Hernandez
Dec

Analyst picks: JakeGerberMMA called it; We Want Picks missed.

1 of 2 called the winner.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Full analyst picks ↓
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 44 of 62 JakeGerberMMA: predicted Rodrigues · KO/TKO. Actual Rodrigues · Dec. Result: Hit.

Reads it as Rodrigues early or Hernandez late, and takes Rodrigues on the more patient approach: right hands and knees to the body until Hernandez slows and backs away, with Rodrigues' ground game good enough to stall the early takedowns.

“But I'm going to give the edge to Robocop with his more patient approach.”
Hear it — 72:47 JakeGerberMMA on YouTube ↗ JakeGerberMMA’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 44 of 62 resolved picks, 10 a perfect call.

We Want Picks Betting desk called 55 of 87 We Want Picks: predicted Hernandez · to win. Actual Rodrigues · Dec. Result: Miss.

Hernandez's grappling volume (six takedowns per 15 minutes) and his ability to absorb head strikes decide it, so long as Rodrigues head-hunts for the knockout instead of attacking the body — the one route Angelo flags as Hernandez's weakness, citing how Kevin Holland and Sean Strickland both beat him. Notes he is surprised Hernandez is as short as -175 rather than -120, but takes him anyway and expects a nail-biter.

“I am going to pick him. Anthony Fluffy Hernandez, it's going to be a nail-biter, guys.”
Hear it — 37:54 We Want Picks on YouTube ↗ We Want Picks’s track record →

Track record: winner called in 55 of 87 resolved picks.

AI Predictions — Results

Pre-fight calls compared with the recorded result; draws and no contests are not scored.

ChatGPTPick: Hernandez · Submission · R4 · 62%–38%Result: Rodrigues · Decision—

Winner Brier 0.384 · n = 1 · Multiclass Brier 0.533 · n = 1

ClaudePick: Hernandez · Decision · 67%–33%Result: Rodrigues · Decision—

Winner Brier 0.449 · n = 1 · Multiclass Brier 0.577 · n = 1

GeminiPick: Hernandez · Submission · R3 · 62%–38%Result: Rodrigues · Decision—

Winner Brier 0.384 · n = 1 · Multiclass Brier 0.522 · n = 1

Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
Hernandez vs Rodrigues
Hernandez Rodrigues
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.57 5.53
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 51% 51%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.10 4.78
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 68% 75%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 80% 79%
15-3-0
Record
19-6-0
4-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
32
Age
34
1.83 m
Height — Rodrigues leads
1.91 m
191 cm
Reach
191 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
80%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
79%
3
Wins by KO/TKOKO/TKO wins — Rodrigues leads
12
9
Wins by submissionSub wins — Hernandez leads
3
4.57
Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / min — Rodrigues leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.53
3.10
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / min — Hernandez leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.78
51%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
51%
68%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Rodrigues leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
75%
10:36
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
08:28
United States
Nationality
Brazil
MMA Gold · El Dorado Hills, CA
Team
Kill Cliff FC

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Hernandez

Nine of Hernandez's 15 wins are submissions, and he shoots more than anyone else on this card — 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy, alongside 1.60 submission attempts per 15. His route is to convert those entries before this settles into a striking match.

Case for Rodrigues

Rodrigues has stopped 12 of his 19 opponents and carries the higher output at 5.53 significant strikes landed per minute against 4.57. His route is to stay upright behind 75% takedown defence and let the power decide it.

What We Were Watching For

  • Hernandez's 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes — the highest rate on the card — against Rodrigues's 75% takedown defence.
  • Rodrigues absorbs 4.78 significant strikes per minute to Hernandez's 3.10, and Hernandez lands at 60% accuracy.
  • Both finish at almost the same rate (80% against 79%), so a decision would be the outlier rather than the expectation.
  • Hernandez averages 10:36 a fight to Rodrigues's 08:28 — more than two minutes of separation in how long they usually work.
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Each provider researched independently under the same pre-event timing rule.

The Read

Latest snapshot · T-1

Each provider researched independently under the same pre-event timing rule.

ChatGPT
62% 38%
Claude
67% 33%
Gemini
62% 38%

3 of 3 models favour Hernandez. The combined forecast puts 42% on KO/TKO as the likeliest finish.

ChatGPT reads the fight as “Anthony Hernandez is the pick, with fourth-round submission the most likely specific outcome. The locked distribution favors Hernandez overall, while Rodrigues has the larger knockout probability. The model expects Hernandez's chances to improve if the fight extends beyond the early exchanges.”

What to watch

  • The locked distribution gives Hernandez a 62% overall win probability.
  • Submission is Hernandez's leading method at 27%, while knockout is Rodrigues' leading method at 28%.
  • The forecast's fourth-round finish reflects a model inference that Hernandez's grappling-oriented path becomes more influential as the fight progresses.

Swing factor

Whether Hernandez can survive Rodrigues' higher-probability knockout threat long enough to impose the submission path favored by the model.

Where the models differ

The models differ on finish method, round timing. The full model calls are below.

  • ChatGPTHernandez · Submission · Round 4 · medium confidence
  • ClaudeHernandez · Decision · medium confidence
  • GeminiHernandez · Submission · Round 3 · medium confidence

Agreement All 3 of 3 models pick Hernandez.

Method outlook KO/TKO 42% · Submission 28% · Decision 30%.

Model spread 62%–67% Hernandez · 33%–38% Rodrigues.

ChatGPT

gpt-5.6-sol · via Codex CLI · 2026-08-22

Overall win probability

62% Hernandez
38% Rodrigues

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

12%
28%
40% · KO/TKO: Hernandez 12%, Rodrigues 28%
27%
2%
29% · Submission: Hernandez 27%, Rodrigues 2%
23%
8%
31% · Decision: Hernandez 23%, Rodrigues 8%

Pick

Anthony Hernandez

Submission · Round 4medium · ●●○

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Anthony Hernandez is the pick, with fourth-round submission the most likely specific outcome. The locked distribution favors Hernandez overall, while Rodrigues has the larger knockout probability. The model expects Hernandez's chances to improve if the fight extends beyond the early exchanges.

Keys to victory

  • The locked distribution gives Hernandez a 62% overall win probability.
  • Submission is Hernandez's leading method at 27%, while knockout is Rodrigues' leading method at 28%.
  • The forecast's fourth-round finish reflects a model inference that Hernandez's grappling-oriented path becomes more influential as the fight progresses.

X-factor

Whether Hernandez can survive Rodrigues' higher-probability knockout threat long enough to impose the submission path favored by the model.

Claude

claude-opus-5 · via Claude CLI · 2026-08-22

Overall win probability

67% Hernandez
33% Rodrigues

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

17%
28%
45% · KO/TKO: Hernandez 17%, Rodrigues 28%
24%
1%
25% · Submission: Hernandez 24%, Rodrigues 1%
26%
4%
30% · Decision: Hernandez 26%, Rodrigues 4%

Pick

Anthony Hernandez

Decisionmedium · ●●○

How Claude sees the fight

Anthony Hernandez ~67%, Gregory Rodrigues ~33%: front-loaded power vs. back-loaded grind over five rounds. Rodrigues holds the only fast-kill button (1.01 KD/15min, two R1 KOs in his last three), and Hernandez's R3 loss to Strickland shows he is hittable. But 5.88 TD/15min against a man with 16% TD accuracy and an 8:28 average fight time is a structural mismatch, and Rodrigues has never seen round five — he gassed into an early-R4 stoppage vs. Cannonier. Expect Hernandez to survive an ugly first six minutes, then grind toward a late RNC, TKO, or wide decision.

Keys to victory

  • Takedown mismatch: Anthony Hernandez averages 5.88 TD/15min at ~48% accuracy vs. Gregory Rodrigues' 16% TD accuracy and 75% takedown defense
  • Deep water: Hernandez averages 10:36 with R4/R5 finishes of Pereira and Dolidze; Rodrigues averages 8:28 and gassed into an early-R4 stoppage vs. Cannonier
  • Gregory Rodrigues' path is front-loaded power: 1.01 KD/15min vs. 0.11, against an Anthony Hernandez stopped by strikes just six months ago

X-factor

Anthony Hernandez's re-tool at Xtreme Couture plus home-crowd emotion in Sacramento could push him to over-press early — exactly the clean R1-R2 counter window Gregory Rodrigues needs.

Gemini

gemini-3.1-pro-high · via AGY CLI · 2026-08-22

Overall win probability

62% Hernandez
38% Rodrigues

Winner probability by method

Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.

15%
25%
40% · KO/TKO: Hernandez 15%, Rodrigues 25%
25%
5%
30% · Submission: Hernandez 25%, Rodrigues 5%
22%
8%
30% · Decision: Hernandez 22%, Rodrigues 8%

Pick

Anthony Hernandez

Submission · Round 3medium · ●●○

How Gemini sees the fight

Anthony Hernandez's relentless wrestling pressure and superior cardio over 5 rounds make him the favorite to weather Gregory Rodrigues's early knockout threat and eventually secure a submission or late TKO.

Keys to victory

  • Hernandez's high-volume grappling and relentless pace.
  • Rodrigues's explosive knockout power and early finishing threat.
  • Cardio dynamics in a scheduled 5-round main event favoring Hernandez.

X-factor

Rodrigues's elite BJJ credentials potentially neutralizing Hernandez's primary submission attacks and keeping the fight standing.

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

Fight News

Fighters

Anthony Hernandez
15-3-0 · Middleweight · Fluffy
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Gregory Rodrigues
19-6-0 · Middleweight
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