Stan Dorsainvil defeats Gauge Young by unanimous decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
5:00
Young vs Dorsainvil · UFC Fight Night
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Young was the stronger fighter through the opening round.
Dorsainvil found his footing in round two and began evening out the fight.
Dorsainvil landed the better shots in the final round to seal a gutsy unanimous decision — his first UFC win.
- Official UFC preliminary resultsUFC Sacramento preliminary results
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: We Want Picks missed; JakeGerberMMA missed.
Only 0 of 2 called the upset.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
We Want Picks Betting desk called 55 of 87 We Want Picks: predicted Young · to win. Actual Dorsainvil · Dec. Result: Miss.
Expects Dorsainvil to test Young's chin early and to cut him -- predicting a bloody Young by the middle of the first -- but backs Young to work through it on toughness and the option of wrestling. Notes Young's one bad night on the feet came against teammate Evan Elder on short notice, whereas here he has a full camp and was preparing for an aggressive opponent. Explicitly declines to bet it because Young cuts too easily.
“so I'll take Gage to win this fight.”
Track record: winner called in 55 of 87 resolved picks.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 44 of 62 JakeGerberMMA: predicted Young · Decision. Actual Dorsainvil · Dec. Result: Miss.
Calls it competitive and explicitly warns not to count Dorsainvil out, rating him as genuinely good and deserving another opportunity even in defeat. Leans Young because Dorsainvil does not always use his reach well and crashes into the pocket, which should let Young land counter combinations and break him down as the fight goes.
“I'm going to say 2928 split decision. Gage Young gets it done in a close one.”
Track record: winner called in 44 of 62 resolved picks, 10 a perfect call.
AI Predictions — Results
Pre-fight calls compared with the recorded result; draws and no contests are not scored.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 11-3-0
- Record
- 5-0-0
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- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- 178 cm
- Reach
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- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
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- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
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- Wins by KO/TKOKO/TKO wins
- 1
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- Wins by submissionSub wins
- 3
- 6.32
- Sig. strikes landed / minStrikes / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- 5.12
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbsorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- 49%
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- 77%
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- 15:00
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- Nationality
- United States
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Young
Young lands 6.32 significant strikes per minute and averages the full 15:00 a fight, behind 77% takedown defence and no submission attempts of his own. His route is to drag Dorsainvil into rounds he has never had to fight.
Case for Dorsainvil
Dorsainvil arrives 5-0 with four wins inside the distance — three in the first round, three by submission. His route is an early finish, because the tape says Young does not fade.
What We Were Watching For
- Young averages the full 15:00 a fight; Dorsainvil has ended three of his five inside the opening round.
- Dorsainvil's three submission wins against Young's 77% takedown defence — and Young has never attempted a submission himself (0.00 per 15 minutes).
- Young absorbs 5.12 significant strikes per minute behind 49% striking defence, so the early openings are real.
- This is Dorsainvil's Octagon debut, so no UFC tape exists on him — his record is regional.
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot
AI Predictions
2 frontier models, same brief, independently — and the brief contains no betting line.
The Read
Latest snapshot · extra
2 frontier models used the same brief independently. The brief contained no betting line.
2 of 2 models favour Young. The combined forecast puts 60% on Decision as the likeliest finish.
ChatGPT reads the fight as “Young’s UFC experience and recent success across competitive three-round decisions give him a narrow edge in a matchup with considerable uncertainty. Dorsainvil’s varied finishing routes and unbeaten record make him dangerous, but Young appears slightly more likely to manage the pace and win enough rounds on the scorecards.”
What to watch
- Young’s deeper UFC-level experience
- Dorsainvil’s diverse finishing threat
- Three-round format favors measured consistency
Swing factor
Whether Dorsainvil can force sustained finishing exchanges before Young settles into a round-winning rhythm.
Where the models differ
The models agree on the winner, finish method, round call, and confidence. The full model calls are below.
- ChatGPTYoung · Decision · medium confidence
- GeminiYoung · Decision · medium confidence
Agreement All 2 of 2 models pick Young.
Method outlook KO/TKO 25% · Submission 15% · Decision 60%.
Model spread 58%–60% Young · 40%–42% Dorsainvil.
ChatGPT
GPT-5 · via Codex CLI · 2026-08-20
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Gauge Young
How ChatGPT sees the fight
Young’s UFC experience and recent success across competitive three-round decisions give him a narrow edge in a matchup with considerable uncertainty. Dorsainvil’s varied finishing routes and unbeaten record make him dangerous, but Young appears slightly more likely to manage the pace and win enough rounds on the scorecards.
Keys to victory
- Young’s deeper UFC-level experience
- Dorsainvil’s diverse finishing threat
- Three-round format favors measured consistency
X-factor
Whether Dorsainvil can force sustained finishing exchanges before Young settles into a round-winning rhythm.
Gemini
Gemini · via AGY CLI · 2026-08-20
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Gauge Young
How Gemini sees the fight
Gauge Young brings proven Octagon durability and consecutive three-round decision experience against seasoned competition, giving him a slight edge over undefeated prospect Stan Dorsainvil, who steps up with diverse regional finishing skills.
Keys to victory
- Young's established experience in grinding out three-round bouts against UFC-caliber opponents.
- Dorsainvil's undefeated record and dynamic finishing capability across both striking and submissions.
- The step-up in competition for Dorsainvil against a durable opponent accustomed to high-level pacing.
X-factor
Whether Dorsainvil can capitalize on early finishing opportunities before Young establishes his pacing over three rounds.
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
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