UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues  22 Aug 2026 · Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California, US

Stan Dorsainvil defeats Gauge Young by unanimous decision

Loss Gauge Young 11-4-0
Win Stan Dorsainvil 6-0-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Young vs Dorsainvil · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Young was the stronger fighter through the opening round.

Dorsainvil found his footing in round two and began evening out the fight.

Dorsainvil landed the better shots in the final round to seal a gutsy unanimous decision — his first UFC win.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Young

Young lands 6.32 significant strikes per minute and averages the full 15:00 a fight, behind 77% takedown defence and no submission attempts of his own. His route is to drag Dorsainvil into rounds he has never had to fight.

Case for Dorsainvil

Dorsainvil arrives 5-0 with four wins inside the distance — three in the first round, three by submission. His route is an early finish, because the tape says Young does not fade.

What We Were Watching For

  • Young averages the full 15:00 a fight; Dorsainvil has ended three of his five inside the opening round.
  • Dorsainvil's three submission wins against Young's 77% takedown defence — and Young has never attempted a submission himself (0.00 per 15 minutes).
  • Young absorbs 5.12 significant strikes per minute behind 49% striking defence, so the early openings are real.
  • This is Dorsainvil's Octagon debut, so no UFC tape exists on him — his record is regional.
Records & career stats
Young vs Dorsainvil
11-3-0
Record
5-0-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
United States
Nationality
United States
26
Age
26
1.75 m
Height — Dorsainvil leads
1.78 m
178 cm
Reach
Not published
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
64%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
—
6
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Young leads
1
1
Wins by submissionSub wins — Dorsainvil leads
3
6.88
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Dorsainvil leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
8.2
5.73
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Young leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
9.13
52%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Young leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
46%
76%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Young leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
67%
15:00
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
15:00

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Comments

Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

MMA JOEY
Hear it — 7:02

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gauge Young · Dec

Fight result: Stan Dorsainvil · Decision

Picks Gauge Young to win.

“So I'll go Gage Young via decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 7:29

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gauge Young · Dec

Fight result: Stan Dorsainvil · Decision

Picks Gage Young to win by a 29-28 decision.

“I'm going to go with Gage Young getting this one done by 29-28 decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 15:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gauge Young · Dec

Fight result: Stan Dorsainvil · Decision

Calls it competitive and explicitly warns not to count Dorsainvil out, rating him as genuinely good and deserving another opportunity even in defeat. Leans Young because Dorsainvil does not always use his reach well and crashes into the pocket, which should let Young land counter combinations and break him down as the fight goes.

“I'm going to say 2928 split decision. Gage Young gets it done in a close one.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 11:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gauge Young

Fight result: Stan Dorsainvil · Decision

Expects Dorsainvil to test Young's chin early and to cut him -- predicting a bloody Young by the middle of the first -- but backs Young to work through it on toughness and the option of wrestling. Notes Young's one bad night on the feet came against teammate Evan Elder on short notice, whereas here he has a full camp and was preparing for an aggressive opponent. Explicitly declines to bet it because Young cuts too easily.

“so I'll take Gage to win this fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)

Analyst picks: MMA JOEY Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; We Want Picks Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 7:02

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gauge Young · Dec

Fight result: Stan Dorsainvil · Decision

Picks Gauge Young to win.

“So I'll go Gage Young via decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Young · DecDorsainvil · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 7:29

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gauge Young · Dec

Fight result: Stan Dorsainvil · Decision

Picks Gage Young to win by a 29-28 decision.

“I'm going to go with Gage Young getting this one done by 29-28 decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Young · DecDorsainvil · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 15:21

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gauge Young · Dec

Fight result: Stan Dorsainvil · Decision

Calls it competitive and explicitly warns not to count Dorsainvil out, rating him as genuinely good and deserving another opportunity even in defeat. Leans Young because Dorsainvil does not always use his reach well and crashes into the pocket, which should let Young land counter combinations and break him down as the fight goes.

“I'm going to say 2928 split decision. Gage Young gets it done in a close one.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Young · DecDorsainvil · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 11:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Gauge Young

Fight result: Stan Dorsainvil · Decision

Expects Dorsainvil to test Young's chin early and to cut him -- predicting a bloody Young by the middle of the first -- but backs Young to work through it on toughness and the option of wrestling. Notes Young's one bad night on the feet came against teammate Evan Elder on short notice, whereas here he has a full camp and was preparing for an aggressive opponent. Explicitly declines to bet it because Young cuts too easily.

“so I'll take Gage to win this fight.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Young · to winDorsainvil · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

Only 0 of 4 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Dorsainvil · Decision · R3

Closest probability ChatGPT put 42% on Dorsainvil.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
58% Young
42% Dorsainvil
PickYoung · DecisionActualDorsainvil · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
60% Young
40% Dorsainvil
PickYoung · DecisionActualDorsainvil · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT and Gemini · latest 20 Aug, 2 days before the fight

Both models pick Young

Both expect a win by decision, with win chances from 58% (ChatGPT) to 60% (Gemini).

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Young by decision

    Win probability: Young 58%, Dorsainvil 42%.

    GPT-5 · 20 Aug

    Medium confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Young by decision

    Win probability: Young 60%, Dorsainvil 40%.

    Gemini · 20 Aug

    Medium confidence

ChatGPT reads the fight as “Young’s UFC experience and recent success across competitive three-round decisions give him a narrow edge in a matchup with considerable uncertainty. Dorsainvil’s varied finishing routes and unbeaten record make him dangerous, but Young appears slightly more likely to manage the pace and win enough rounds on the scorecards.”

What to watch

  • Young’s deeper UFC-level experience
  • Dorsainvil’s diverse finishing threat
  • Three-round format favors measured consistency

Swing factor

Whether Dorsainvil can force sustained finishing exchanges before Young settles into a round-winning rhythm.

More detail1 area differs

The models differ on probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round——
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round——

ChatGPT

Pick

Young by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Young 58%, Dorsainvil 42%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 25% overall: Young 10%, Dorsainvil 15%
Submission, 15% overall: Young 4%, Dorsainvil 11%
Decision, 60% overall: Young 44%, Dorsainvil 16%

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Young’s UFC experience and recent success across competitive three-round decisions give him a narrow edge in a matchup with considerable uncertainty. Dorsainvil’s varied finishing routes and unbeaten record make him dangerous, but Young appears slightly more likely to manage the pace and win enough rounds on the scorecards.

Keys to victory

  • Young’s deeper UFC-level experience
  • Dorsainvil’s diverse finishing threat
  • Three-round format favors measured consistency

X-factor

Whether Dorsainvil can force sustained finishing exchanges before Young settles into a round-winning rhythm.

GPT-5 · 20 Aug47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Young by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Young 60%, Dorsainvil 40%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 25% overall: Young 10%, Dorsainvil 15%
Submission, 15% overall: Young 5%, Dorsainvil 10%
Decision, 60% overall: Young 45%, Dorsainvil 15%

How Gemini sees the fight

Gauge Young brings proven Octagon durability and consecutive three-round decision experience against seasoned competition, giving him a slight edge over undefeated prospect Stan Dorsainvil, who steps up with diverse regional finishing skills.

Keys to victory

  • Young's established experience in grinding out three-round bouts against UFC-caliber opponents.
  • Dorsainvil's undefeated record and dynamic finishing capability across both striking and submissions.
  • The step-up in competition for Dorsainvil against a durable opponent accustomed to high-level pacing.

X-factor

Whether Dorsainvil can capitalize on early finishing opportunities before Young establishes his pacing over three rounds.

Gemini · 20 Aug50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.