UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Round 1 · 1:39
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Judice stalked Chaves from the opening exchanges, cutting off her space.
She buried her toes into Chaves's midsection with a body kick that folded her over.
The kick ended the fight in an instant at 1:39 of round one.
Judice lands 9.32 significant strikes per minute — the highest rate on this card — and five of her six wins are knockouts. Her route is a firefight finished inside the distance.
Chaves is 8-0 but finishes only half of those and averages the full 15:00. Her route is to absorb the opening exchanges and take the rounds on the scorecards.
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Performance filters use calls resolved before this event.
Picked: Carli Judice · Dec
Fight result: Carli Judice · KO/TKO
Picks Carli Judice to win.
“I'll go Judice via decision.”
Picked: Carli Judice · Dec
Fight result: Carli Judice · KO/TKO
Picks Carly Judice by decision.
“I'm going to go with Carly Judice getting this one done by decision.”
Picked: Carli Judice · KO/TKO · Round 2
Fight result: Carli Judice · KO/TKO
Credits Judice's movement, ring craft and improved takedown defence, and judges Chaves's ground game not good enough to trouble her -- noting Juliana Miller is far better on the ground than Chaves and still could not exploit it. Expects kicks to the body or a set-up high kick to end it.
“Give me Carly Judice by second round knockout.”
Picked: Carli Judice
Fight result: Carli Judice · KO/TKO
Reads it as mostly a striking match-up and takes Judice on that edge, while warning she creates her own danger: after having her back taken early in her last fight she chose to grapple in the third and was nearly submitted. If Chaves lands the same kind of well-timed takedowns she used last time out, it gets weird. Notes the odds are far too long to bet.
“Carla is going to be the pick because she's the better striker.”
Picked: Carli Judice · KO/TKO
Fight result: Carli Judice · KO/TKO
MMA Mania's UFC Sacramento X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Carli Judice by knockout.
Analyst picks: MMA JOEY Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; We Want Picks Hit; Andrew Richardson Hit.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MMA JOEY
MMA JOEY
Current pick evidencePicked: Carli Judice · Dec Fight result: Carli Judice · KO/TKO Picks Carli Judice to win. “I'll go Judice via decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Judice · Dec | Judice · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Picks Carli Judice to win. “I'll go Judice via decision.” Track record: winner called in 71 of 107 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The MMA Guru
The MMA Guru
Current pick evidencePicked: Carli Judice · Dec Fight result: Carli Judice · KO/TKO Picks Carly Judice by decision. “I'm going to go with Carly Judice getting this one done by decision.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Judice · Dec | Judice · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
| Picks Carly Judice by decision. “I'm going to go with Carly Judice getting this one done by decision.” Track record: winner called in 203 of 308 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
JakeGerberMMA
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Carli Judice · KO/TKO · Round 2 Fight result: Carli Judice · KO/TKO Credits Judice's movement, ring craft and improved takedown defence, and judges Chaves's ground game not good enough to trouble her -- noting Juliana Miller is far better on the ground than Chaves and still could not exploit it. Expects kicks to the body or a set-up high kick to end it. “Give me Carly Judice by second round knockout.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Judice · KO/TKO · R2 | Judice · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
| Credits Judice's movement, ring craft and improved takedown defence, and judges Chaves's ground game not good enough to trouble her -- noting Juliana Miller is far better on the ground than Chaves and still could not exploit it. Expects kicks to the body or a set-up high kick to end it. “Give me Carly Judice by second round knockout.” Track record: winner called in 83 of 127 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
We Want Picks
We Want Picks
Current pick evidencePicked: Carli Judice Fight result: Carli Judice · KO/TKO Reads it as mostly a striking match-up and takes Judice on that edge, while warning she creates her own danger: after having her back taken early in her last fight she chose to grapple in the third and was nearly submitted. If Chaves lands the same kind of well-timed takedowns she used last time out, it gets weird. Notes the odds are far too long to bet. “Carla is going to be the pick because she's the better striker.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Judice · to win | Judice · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| Reads it as mostly a striking match-up and takes Judice on that edge, while warning she creates her own danger: after having her back taken early in her last fight she chose to grapple in the third and was nearly submitted. If Chaves lands the same kind of well-timed takedowns she used last time out, it gets weird. Notes the odds are far too long to bet. “Carla is going to be the pick because she's the better striker.” Track record: winner called in 93 of 145 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Andrew Richardson
Andrew Richardson
Current pick evidencePicked: Carli Judice · KO/TKO Fight result: Carli Judice · KO/TKO MMA Mania's UFC Sacramento X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Carli Judice by knockout. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Historic market Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Judice · KO/TKO | Judice · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
| MMA Mania's UFC Sacramento X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Carli Judice by knockout. Track record: winner called in 34 of 58 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
5 of 5 nailed it.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Judice · KO/TKO · R1
Closest probability ChatGPT put 60% on Judice.
Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 20 Aug, 2 days before the fight
They differ on how the fight ends, with win chances from 55% (Claude) to 60% (ChatGPT).
Method mix differs most for KO/TKO: 32% (Gemini) to 49% (ChatGPT), a 17-point range.
47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Judice by KO/TKO in round 2
Win probability: Judice 60%, Chaves 40%.
46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
Pick Judice by decision
Win probability: Judice 55%, Chaves 45%.
50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
Pick Judice by decision
Win probability: Judice 58%, Chaves 42%.
ChatGPT reads the fight as “Judice is the narrower pick in a striker-versus-striker matchup, with her varied recent finishing routes suggesting the stronger chance of creating a decisive opening. Chaves' unbeaten record and repeated success over three rounds keep the forecast competitive, but Judice may carry the greater finishing threat before the scorecards.”
Whether Chaves can manage distance and pace well enough to prevent Judice from building damaging combinations.
The models differ on finish method, round timing, confidence, probability distribution.
| Detail | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | |||
| Round | Round 2 | — | — |
| Detail | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | |||
| Round | Round 2 | — | — |
Pick
Judice is the narrower pick in a striker-versus-striker matchup, with her varied recent finishing routes suggesting the stronger chance of creating a decisive opening. Chaves' unbeaten record and repeated success over three rounds keep the forecast competitive, but Judice may carry the greater finishing threat before the scorecards.
Whether Chaves can manage distance and pace well enough to prevent Judice from building damaging combinations.
GPT-5 · 20 Aug47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick
Two striker-forward flyweights meet in a matchup that could plausibly go either way. Judice has two recent striking stoppages and a decision win, while Chaves arrives unbeaten and has won her last two listed bouts by split decision. The supplied results support a competitive standup battle that could extend to the scorecards.
Whether Chaves can limit the striking openings that produced Judice's two recent stoppage wins.
Claude · 20 Aug46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
Pick
This flyweight matchup features two listed strikers in Carli Judice and the undefeated Jeisla Chaves. Judice has two recent striking stoppages and a decision win, while Chaves' last two listed bouts ended in split-decision wins. Their common result against Yuneisy Duben gives Judice the clearer finishing evidence, though Chaves' unbeaten record keeps the forecast close.
Adaptability to the flyweight division for two competitors primarily designated in the strawweight ranks.
Gemini · 20 Aug50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
No market odds are available for this fight yet.
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