Carli Judice defeats Jeisla Chaves by KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Round 1 · 1:39
Judice vs Chaves · UFC Fight Night
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Judice stalked Chaves from the opening exchanges, cutting off her space.
She buried her toes into Chaves's midsection with a body kick that folded her over.
The kick ended the fight in an instant at 1:39 of round one.
- Official UFC resultsUFC Sacramento main card results
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Analyst picks: We Want Picks called it; JakeGerberMMA called it.
2 of 2 nailed it.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Full analyst picks ↓
We Want Picks Betting desk called 55 of 87 We Want Picks: predicted Judice · to win. Actual Judice · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Reads it as mostly a striking match-up and takes Judice on that edge, while warning she creates her own danger: after having her back taken early in her last fight she chose to grapple in the third and was nearly submitted. If Chaves lands the same kind of well-timed takedowns she used last time out, it gets weird. Notes the odds are far too long to bet.
“Carla is going to be the pick because she's the better striker.”
Track record: winner called in 55 of 87 resolved picks.
JakeGerberMMA Analyst called 44 of 62 JakeGerberMMA: predicted Judice · KO/TKO · R2. Actual Judice · KO/TKO R1. Result: Hit.
Credits Judice's movement, ring craft and improved takedown defence, and judges Chaves's ground game not good enough to trouble her -- noting Juliana Miller is far better on the ground than Chaves and still could not exploit it. Expects kicks to the body or a set-up high kick to end it.
“Give me Carly Judice by second round knockout.”
Track record: winner called in 44 of 62 resolved picks, 10 a perfect call.
AI Predictions — Results
Pre-fight calls compared with the recorded result; draws and no contests are not scored.
Archive Pre-fight material — kept for transparency.
- 9.32 4.97
- 57% 54%
- 6.62 4.20
- 81% 63%
- 83% 50%
- 6-2-0
- Record
- 8-0-0
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 5-0 last 5
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 11:38
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 15:00
- United States
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Headkicks MMA
- Team
- Gomes Fight Team
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Numbers reflect records coming into fight night. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Judice
Judice lands 9.32 significant strikes per minute — the highest rate on this card — and five of her six wins are knockouts. Her route is a firefight finished inside the distance.
Case for Chaves
Chaves is 8-0 but finishes only half of those and averages the full 15:00. Her route is to absorb the opening exchanges and take the rounds on the scorecards.
What We Were Watching For
- Judice's 9.32 significant strikes landed per minute against Chaves's 4.97 — close to double the volume.
- Judice also concedes 6.62 per minute, and Chaves has not yet lost a fight.
- Chaves averages the full 15:00 a bout to Judice's 11:38; whether this reaches a third round may settle it.
- Chaves is 5-0 in her last five to Judice's 3-2, and Judice has never recorded a submission attempt (0.00 per 15 minutes).
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot
AI Predictions
3 frontier models, same brief, independently — and the brief contains no betting line.
The Read
Latest snapshot · T-3
3 frontier models used the same brief independently. The brief contained no betting line.
3 of 3 models favour Judice. The combined forecast puts 54% on Decision as the likeliest finish.
ChatGPT reads the fight as “Judice is the narrower pick in a striker-versus-striker matchup, with her varied recent finishing routes suggesting the stronger chance of creating a decisive opening. Chaves' unbeaten record and repeated success over three rounds keep the forecast competitive, but Judice may carry the greater finishing threat before the scorecards.”
What to watch
- Judice offers multiple striking finish routes
- Chaves has shown composure in close decisions
- A three-round striking battle limits separation
Swing factor
Whether Chaves can manage distance and pace well enough to prevent Judice from building damaging combinations.
Where the models differ
The models differ on finish method, round timing, confidence. The full model calls are below.
- ChatGPTJudice · KO/TKO · Round 2 · medium confidence
- ClaudeJudice · Decision · low confidence
- GeminiJudice · Decision · medium confidence
Agreement All 3 of 3 models pick Judice.
Method outlook KO/TKO 40% · Submission 6% · Decision 54%.
Model spread 55%–60% Judice · 40%–45% Chaves.
ChatGPT
GPT-5 · via Codex CLI · 2026-08-20
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Carli Judice
How ChatGPT sees the fight
Judice is the narrower pick in a striker-versus-striker matchup, with her varied recent finishing routes suggesting the stronger chance of creating a decisive opening. Chaves' unbeaten record and repeated success over three rounds keep the forecast competitive, but Judice may carry the greater finishing threat before the scorecards.
Keys to victory
- Judice offers multiple striking finish routes
- Chaves has shown composure in close decisions
- A three-round striking battle limits separation
X-factor
Whether Chaves can manage distance and pace well enough to prevent Judice from building damaging combinations.
Claude
Claude · via Claude CLI · 2026-08-20
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Carli Judice
How Claude sees the fight
Two striker-forward flyweights meet in a matchup that could plausibly go either way. Judice has two recent striking stoppages and a decision win, while Chaves arrives unbeaten and has won her last two listed bouts by split decision. The supplied results support a competitive standup battle that could extend to the scorecards.
Keys to victory
- Judice has recent finishes via strikes (TKO in two of her last three), suggesting she can end things early if she finds range
- Chaves is unbeaten but her two most recent wins were split decisions, which may indicate closer, harder-to-score exchanges rather than dominant performances
- Judice stopped Yuneisy Duben while Chaves later earned a split decision over the same opponent
X-factor
Whether Chaves can limit the striking openings that produced Judice's two recent stoppage wins.
Gemini
Gemini · via AGY CLI · 2026-08-20
Overall win probability
Winner probability by method
Combined probability is shown in the rail centre; corner shares sit at the ends.
Pick
Carli Judice
How Gemini sees the fight
This flyweight matchup features two listed strikers in Carli Judice and the undefeated Jeisla Chaves. Judice has two recent striking stoppages and a decision win, while Chaves' last two listed bouts ended in split-decision wins. Their common result against Yuneisy Duben gives Judice the clearer finishing evidence, though Chaves' unbeaten record keeps the forecast close.
Keys to victory
- Demonstrated finishing power, where Judice has shown multiple stoppage pathways via strikes.
- Chaves' two recent split-decision wins.
- Comparative outcomes against common competition, with Judice previously earning an early stoppage while Chaves fought to a split verdict.
X-factor
Adaptability to the flyweight division for two competitors primarily designated in the strawweight ranks.
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
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