UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues  22 Aug 2026 · Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California, US

Reinier de Ridder defeats Roman Dolidze by KO/TKO

Win Reinier de Ridder 22-4-0
Loss Roman Dolidze 15-6-0
KO/TKO · punches

Round 1 · 4:01

de Ridder vs Dolidze · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Dolidze pulled guard early to chase leg locks against de Ridder.

De Ridder methodically cleared the leg attacks and worked back to a dominant position.

Once free, de Ridder unloaded a non-stop barrage of strikes that forced the referee to step in at 4:01 of round one.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for de Ridder

De Ridder has submitted 13 of his 21 opponents and lands 2.56 takedowns per 15 minutes. At 2.47 significant strikes per minute he is not going to out-volume anybody, so his route is the mat and the neck that follows.

Case for Dolidze

Dolidze carries the heavier hands — 8 knockouts and 3.19 landed per minute against 2.47 — with 0.74 submission attempts per 15 of his own. His route is to make the first takedown expensive and the second one unavailable.

What We Were Watching For

  • The two lowest takedown-defence figures on the card belong to this pairing: Dolidze at 32%, De Ridder at 40%. Whoever shoots first is likely to land it.
  • De Ridder's 13 submission wins against an opponent who stops fewer than a third of the takedowns he faces.
  • Output is low on both sides (2.47 against 3.19 landed per minute) and both average over 12:30 a fight.
  • Form runs opposite ways — De Ridder is 3-2 in his last five, Dolidze 2-3.
Records & career stats
de Ridder vs Dolidze
21-4-0
Record
15-5-0
3-2 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2-3 last 5
Netherlands
Nationality
Georgia
35
Age
37
1.93 m
Height — de Ridder leads
1.91 m
201 cm
Reach — de Ridder leads
193 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
Source pending
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
73%
—
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
8
13
Wins by submissionSub wins — de Ridder leads
3
3.18
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.12
2.26
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — de Ridder leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.02
47%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
46%
40%
Takedown defenseTD def. — de Ridder leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
32%
12:18
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
12:22
Kill Cliff FC
Team
Xtreme Couture - Las Vegas, NV

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

MMA JOEY
Hear it — 27:26

Current pick evidence

Picked: Reinier de Ridder · Dec

Fight result: Reinier de Ridder · KO/TKO

Picks Reinier de Ridder to win.

“I'll pick RDR to get it done over Roman Dolidze via decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 34:14

Current pick evidence

Picked: Reinier de Ridder

Fight result: Reinier de Ridder · KO/TKO

Picks Reinier de Ridder to win.

“I'm going to go with Reinier De Ridder in this one.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 51:55

Current pick evidence

Picked: Reinier de Ridder · Sub

Fight result: Reinier de Ridder · KO/TKO

Expects Dolidze to struggle in the clinch, de Ridder to tap away with knees to the body and take him down, then slide into a dominant position as Dolidze slows later in the fight and finish with an arm triangle.

“RDR gets him down and ends up finding a submission. I like RDR at 205 a lot.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 35:12

Current pick evidence

Picked: Reinier de Ridder

Fight result: Reinier de Ridder · KO/TKO

Picks against his own long-standing preference for Dolidze: the wins that made Dolidze's name are four years old, and de Ridder is the bigger man genuinely suited to 205. Expects de Ridder to manage range, land jumping knees, and for Dolidze to fold mentally as he has before.

“So I absolutely love Reinier de Ridder in this spot.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)

Analyst picks: MMA JOEY Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; JakeGerberMMA Hit; We Want Picks Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 27:26

Current pick evidence

Picked: Reinier de Ridder · Dec

Fight result: Reinier de Ridder · KO/TKO

Picks Reinier de Ridder to win.

“I'll pick RDR to get it done over Roman Dolidze via decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.5%. de Ridder · Decde Ridder · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 34:14

Current pick evidence

Picked: Reinier de Ridder

Fight result: Reinier de Ridder · KO/TKO

Picks Reinier de Ridder to win.

“I'm going to go with Reinier De Ridder in this one.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.5%. de Ridder · to winde Ridder · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 51:55

Current pick evidence

Picked: Reinier de Ridder · Sub

Fight result: Reinier de Ridder · KO/TKO

Expects Dolidze to struggle in the clinch, de Ridder to tap away with knees to the body and take him down, then slide into a dominant position as Dolidze slows later in the fight and finish with an arm triangle.

“RDR gets him down and ends up finding a submission. I like RDR at 205 a lot.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.5%. de Ridder · Subde Ridder · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 35:12

Current pick evidence

Picked: Reinier de Ridder

Fight result: Reinier de Ridder · KO/TKO

Picks against his own long-standing preference for Dolidze: the wins that made Dolidze's name are four years old, and de Ridder is the bigger man genuinely suited to 205. Expects de Ridder to manage range, land jumping knees, and for Dolidze to fold mentally as he has before.

“So I absolutely love Reinier de Ridder in this spot.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 78.5%. de Ridder · to winde Ridder · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called

4 of 4 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual de Ridder · KO/TKO · R1

Closest probability ChatGPT put 57% on de Ridder.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
57% de Ridder
43% Dolidze
Pickde Ridder · DecisionActualde Ridder · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
52% de Ridder
48% Dolidze
Pickde Ridder · DecisionActualde Ridder · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
53% de Ridder
47% Dolidze
Pickde Ridder · DecisionActualde Ridder · KO/TKO · R1
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot calledHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 20 Aug, 2 days before the fight

All 3 models pick de Ridder

All three expect a win by decision, with win chances from 52% (Claude) to 57% (ChatGPT).

Method mix differs most for Decision: 45% (Claude) to 58% (ChatGPT), a 13-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick de Ridder by decision

    Win probability: de Ridder 57%, Dolidze 43%.

    GPT-5 · 20 Aug

    Low confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick de Ridder by decision

    Win probability: de Ridder 52%, Dolidze 48%.

    Claude · 20 Aug

    Low confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick de Ridder by decision

    Win probability: de Ridder 53%, Dolidze 47%.

    Gemini · 20 Aug

    Low confidence

ChatGPT reads the fight as “De Ridder is a narrow pick in a competitive grappling matchup. His listed grappling style and stronger overall record provide the slight edge, while Dolidze's sambo and BJJ base keeps the matchup close. With both fighters recently reaching decisions and the bout limited to three rounds, a close scorecard appears more likely than a finish.”

What to watch

  • De Ridder's listed grappling style
  • Dolidze's sambo and BJJ base
  • Three-round format favors narrow scorecards

Swing factor

The fighter who converts clinch exchanges into sustained top control may determine the decision.

More detail1 area differs

The models differ on probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———

ChatGPT

Pick

de Ridder by decision

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: de Ridder 57%, Dolidze 43%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 18% overall: de Ridder 8%, Dolidze 10%
Submission, 24% overall: de Ridder 16%, Dolidze 8%
Decision, 58% overall: de Ridder 33%, Dolidze 25%

How ChatGPT sees the fight

De Ridder is a narrow pick in a competitive grappling matchup. His listed grappling style and stronger overall record provide the slight edge, while Dolidze's sambo and BJJ base keeps the matchup close. With both fighters recently reaching decisions and the bout limited to three rounds, a close scorecard appears more likely than a finish.

Keys to victory

  • De Ridder's listed grappling style
  • Dolidze's sambo and BJJ base
  • Three-round format favors narrow scorecards

X-factor

The fighter who converts clinch exchanges into sustained top control may determine the decision.

GPT-5 · 20 Aug47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

de Ridder by decision

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: de Ridder 52%, Dolidze 48%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 30% overall: de Ridder 12%, Dolidze 18%
Submission, 25% overall: de Ridder 15%, Dolidze 10%
Decision, 45% overall: de Ridder 25%, Dolidze 20%

How Claude sees the fight

Two grappling-oriented light heavyweights meet while both are attempting to snap two-fight skids. De Ridder's stronger overall record gives him a slight edge, while Dolidze's listed sambo and BJJ base provides a comparable grappling route. Their supplied recent results support a tightly contested matchup that could plausibly reach the scorecards.

Keys to victory

  • Both fighters enter off consecutive losses
  • De Ridder's listed grappling style and stronger overall record
  • Dolidze's listed sambo and BJJ base

X-factor

Whichever fighter dictates where the fight takes place — feet or mat — early in round one likely shapes the entire outcome.

Claude · 20 Aug46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

de Ridder by decision

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: de Ridder 53%, Dolidze 47%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 22% overall: de Ridder 7%, Dolidze 15%
Submission, 28% overall: de Ridder 18%, Dolidze 10%
Decision, 50% overall: de Ridder 28%, Dolidze 22%

How Gemini sees the fight

This three-round light heavyweight contest pairs two experienced grapplers aiming to rebound from recent losses. Reinier de Ridder's listed grappling style meets Roman Dolidze's sambo and BJJ background. Their similar grappling profiles and recent distance results make an extended contest plausible, with de Ridder's stronger overall record providing the narrow edge.

Keys to victory

  • Grappling parity between de Ridder's submission threats and Dolidze's sambo/BJJ base
  • Control of grappling exchanges across three scheduled rounds
  • Both fighters' recent decision results

X-factor

Ability to secure top position immediately following the first contested scramble.

Gemini · 20 Aug50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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