UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues  22 Aug 2026 · Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California, US

MarQuel Mederos defeats Mason Jones by KO/TKO

Win MarQuel Mederos 12-1-1
Loss Mason Jones 18-3-0
KO/TKO · elbows and punches

Round 2 · 2:07

Mederos vs Jones · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

The first round was competitive and entertaining between the two.

Jones built early momentum in round two before Mederos found his opening.

Mederos landed a right hand that put Jones on skates, then swarmed until referee Jason Herzog stopped the fight at 2:07 of round two.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Mederos

Mederos barely wrestles at all, averaging 0.23 takedowns per 15 minutes, so his route is to keep the fight standing and win the striking exchanges outright. His 83% takedown defence is the highest of the two and is what he needs to lean on.

Case for Jones

Jones brings the more varied attack, averaging 3.48 takedowns per 15 minutes alongside a marginally higher striking output. His route is to make Mederos carry weight and fight off his back rather than trade cleanly.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Jones commits to his wrestling early or feels out the striking first — he is the only one of the two who shoots with any regularity.
  • Mederos’s 83% takedown defence against the highest takedown rate he has faced on this card.
  • Striking volume is near-identical (5.46 against 5.98 landed per minute), so the separation is likely to come from grappling, not output.
  • Both absorb a similar amount (4.58 against 4.45 per minute), which points to a competitive rather than one-sided exchange.
Records & career stats
Mederos vs Jones
Mederos Jones
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 5.94 6.33
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 52% 49%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 5.21 4.87
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 81% 78%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 55% 65%
11-1-1
Record
18-2-0
4-0-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
United States
Nationality
Wales
29
Age
31
1.78 m
Height
1.78 m
177 cm
Reach — Jones leads
188 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
55%
Finish rateFinish % — Jones leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
65%
7
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Jones leads
8
0
Wins by submissionSub wins — Jones leads
3
5.94
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Jones leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.33
5.21
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Jones leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.87
52%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Mederos leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
49%
81%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Mederos leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
78%
11:53
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
12:12

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (1)

Comments

Comments are currently closed while we finish moderation and privacy controls.

Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

MMA JOEY
Hear it — 23:44

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mason Jones · Dec

Fight result: MarQuel Mederos · KO/TKO

Picks Mason Jones to win.

“I'm picking Mason Jones to get it done via decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 30:51

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mason Jones · KO/TKO

Fight result: MarQuel Mederos · KO/TKO

Picks Mason Jones by TKO.

“I'm going to go with Mason Jones getting this one by TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 47:17

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mason Jones · Dec

Fight result: MarQuel Mederos · KO/TKO

Calls it a good, competitive fight and rates Mederos durable, but gives Jones the edge as the better grappler with more power. Expects Jones to drain Mederos's gas tank, then open up on the feet -- walking him down and advancing forward in a way that scores well with the judges. Scores it 29-28.

“It's going to be Mason Jones via a dog fight. I think he gets it done by a competitive decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 26:20

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mason Jones

Fight result: MarQuel Mederos · KO/TKO

Reads Mederos as almost too technical and too athletic for this match-up, and expects Jones's pressure and grit to deny him room to breathe -- Jones will keep walking forward even while eating two strikes to one. Mederos's only path is to stay clean, stay safe and out-athlete him.

“So, I think Mason Jones wins this fight just by being violent and willing to take a beating.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mason Jones · Dec

Fight result: MarQuel Mederos · KO/TKO

MMA Mania's UFC Sacramento X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Mason Jones by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)

Analyst picks: MMA JOEY Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; JakeGerberMMA Miss; We Want Picks Miss; Andrew Richardson Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 23:44

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mason Jones · Dec

Fight result: MarQuel Mederos · KO/TKO

Picks Mason Jones to win.

“I'm picking Mason Jones to get it done via decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Jones · DecMederos · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 30:51

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mason Jones · KO/TKO

Fight result: MarQuel Mederos · KO/TKO

Picks Mason Jones by TKO.

“I'm going to go with Mason Jones getting this one by TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Jones · KO/TKOMederos · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 47:17

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mason Jones · Dec

Fight result: MarQuel Mederos · KO/TKO

Calls it a good, competitive fight and rates Mederos durable, but gives Jones the edge as the better grappler with more power. Expects Jones to drain Mederos's gas tank, then open up on the feet -- walking him down and advancing forward in a way that scores well with the judges. Scores it 29-28.

“It's going to be Mason Jones via a dog fight. I think he gets it done by a competitive decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Jones · DecMederos · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 26:20

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mason Jones

Fight result: MarQuel Mederos · KO/TKO

Reads Mederos as almost too technical and too athletic for this match-up, and expects Jones's pressure and grit to deny him room to breathe -- Jones will keep walking forward even while eating two strikes to one. Mederos's only path is to stay clean, stay safe and out-athlete him.

“So, I think Mason Jones wins this fight just by being violent and willing to take a beating.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Jones · to winMederos · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Andrew Richardson58 resolved calls
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Mason Jones · Dec

Fight result: MarQuel Mederos · KO/TKO

MMA Mania's UFC Sacramento X-Factor preview has Andrew Richardson picking Mason Jones by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Jones · DecMederos · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

Only 0 of 5 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Mederos · KO/TKO · R2

Closest probability Gemini put 44% on Mederos.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
42% Mederos
58% Jones
PickJones · DecisionActualMederos · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
44% Mederos
56% Jones
PickJones · DecisionActualMederos · KO/TKO · R2
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT and Gemini · latest 20 Aug, 2 days before the fight

Both models pick Jones

Both expect a win by decision, with win chances from 56% (Gemini) to 58% (ChatGPT).

Method mix differs most for Decision: 65% (Gemini) to 70% (ChatGPT), a 5-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Jones by decision

    Win probability: Mederos 42%, Jones 58%.

    GPT-5 · 20 Aug

    Medium confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Jones by decision

    Win probability: Mederos 44%, Jones 56%.

    Gemini · 20 Aug

    Medium confidence

ChatGPT reads the fight as “Jones projects as a slight favorite based on his stronger recent winning sequence, broader finishing threat, and greater professional experience. Mederos has shown competitive durability across three-round fights, so a closely contested decision appears more likely than a finish.”

What to watch

  • Jones carries the deeper professional record
  • Mederos has consistently reached the scorecards
  • Jones offers the clearer recent finishing signal

Swing factor

Whether Jones can impose enough sustained offense to separate rounds without giving Mederos extended competitive stretches.

More detail1 area differs

The models differ on probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round——
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round——

ChatGPT

Pick

Jones by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Mederos 42%, Jones 58%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 22% overall: Mederos 8%, Jones 14%
Submission, 8% overall: Mederos 3%, Jones 5%
Decision, 70% overall: Mederos 31%, Jones 39%

How ChatGPT sees the fight

Jones projects as a slight favorite based on his stronger recent winning sequence, broader finishing threat, and greater professional experience. Mederos has shown competitive durability across three-round fights, so a closely contested decision appears more likely than a finish.

Keys to victory

  • Jones carries the deeper professional record
  • Mederos has consistently reached the scorecards
  • Jones offers the clearer recent finishing signal

X-factor

Whether Jones can impose enough sustained offense to separate rounds without giving Mederos extended competitive stretches.

GPT-5 · 20 Aug47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Jones by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Mederos 44%, Jones 56%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 24% overall: Mederos 10%, Jones 14%
Submission, 11% overall: Mederos 4%, Jones 7%
Decision, 65% overall: Mederos 30%, Jones 35%

How Gemini sees the fight

This lightweight bout pairs the tested durability of MarQuel Mederos against the high-output pressure of Mason Jones. Given both fighters' frequent distance history and competitive UFC rounds, a tightly scored three-round decision appears the most probable path, with Jones holding a marginal advantage in sustained activity and offensive variety.

Keys to victory

  • Sustained striking output and pace across three five-minute rounds
  • Mederos' proven ability to survive adversity and contest tight frames
  • Jones' momentum and varied finishing threat from recent appearances

X-factor

Mederos' capacity to land impactful counter-sequences to disrupt Jones' rhythm and sway closely contested judging rounds

Gemini · 20 Aug50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.