HopperMMA covers MMA, boxing and other combat sports.
Scorecard
Called 77 of 121 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
- Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
- Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
- Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows: read where a line sits alongside its denominator. Winner covers every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss
77 of 121 — 64% now, from 40% at their first scored card.
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Method
65% 42 of 65 correct winners that named a method
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Round
47% 17 of 36 correct winners that named a round
-
Underdog
26% 5 of 19 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first. One mark per resolved call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- UFC 332 6 hit · 2 miss
- Crypto.com UFC 331 7 hit · 5 miss
- Silva vs. Delgado 9 hit · 3 miss
- Hooker vs. Parnasse 8 hit · 4 miss
- Nurmagomedov vs. Song 8 hit · 5 miss
- UFC 330 4 hit · 4 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 3 hit · 1 miss
- Medic vs. Rodriguez 5 hit · 3 miss
- Ankalaev vs. Guskov 7 hit · 3 miss
- UFC 329 8 hit · 3 miss
- Kape vs Horiguchi 0 hit · 1 miss
- UFC Freedom 250 5 hit · 2 miss
- UFC 328 2 hit · 3 miss
- UFC 327 3 hit · 2 miss
- UFC Seattle 2 hit · 3 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
UFC 333
Volkanovski vs. Evloev
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkanovski vs Evloev | Volkanovski · to win | Upcoming | Volkanovski | Not called | Not called |
| Yan vs Dvalishvili | Yan · to win | Upcoming | Yan | Not called | Not called |
Buckley vs. Malott
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anheliger vs Koslow | Anheliger · Dec | Upcoming | Anheliger | Dec | Not called |
| Barriault vs Daukaus | Daukaus · Sub · R1 | Upcoming | Daukaus | Sub | R1 |
| Blanchfield vs Jasudavicius | Blanchfield · Dec | Upcoming | Blanchfield | Dec | Not called |
| Boser vs Diniz | Diniz · Dec | Upcoming | Diniz | Dec | Not called |
| Buckley vs Malott | Buckley · KO/TKO | Upcoming | Buckley | KO/TKO | Not called |
| Cerminara vs Stiller | Cerminara · Dec | Upcoming | Cerminara | Dec | Not called |
| Chovancek vs You | You · Dec | Upcoming | You | Dec | Not called |
| Croden vs Chandler | Croden · KO/TKO · R1 | Upcoming | Croden | KO/TKO | R1 |
| Jourdain vs Cuamba | Jourdain · to win | Upcoming | Jourdain | Not called | Not called |
| Leblanc vs Galanti | Galanti · KO/TKO · R1 | Upcoming | Galanti | KO/TKO | R1 |
| Mahjoub vs Faglier | Mahjoub · to win | Upcoming | Mahjoub | Not called | R1 |
| Nallo vs Landwehr | Nallo · KO/TKO · R1 | Upcoming | Nallo | KO/TKO | R1 |
| Nelson vs Perez | Perez · to win | Upcoming | Perez | Not called | R1 |
UFC 332
Silva vs. Wang
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
- Method Accuracy 83.3% 5 1
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hernandez · KO/TKO · R1 | Hernandez · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
HopperoMMA selects Alexander Hernandez by ko/tko in round 1. | |||||
| Green · to win | Ribovics · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
HopperoMMA selects King Green. | |||||
| Nolan · KO/TKO · R1 | Nolan · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
HopperoMMA selects Eric Nolan by ko/tko in round 1. | |||||
| Rodriguez · KO/TKO · R1 | Rodriguez · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
HopperoMMA selects Imanol Rodriguez by ko/tko in round 1. | |||||
| Silva · Dec | Silva · Dec R5 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
HopperoMMA selects Natalia Silva by decision. | |||||
| Vettori · to win | Naurdiev · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
HopperoMMA selects Marvin Vettori. | |||||
| Walker · KO/TKO · R1 | Walker · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
HopperoMMA selects Johnny Walker by ko/tko in round 1. | |||||
| Soldić · KO/TKO · R1 | Soldić · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
HopperoMMA selects Roberto Soldic by ko/tko in round 1. | |||||
Crypto.com UFC 331
Van vs. Pantoja 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Yoo · KO/TKO · R2 | Aswell Jr. · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Transcript-reviewed HopperoMMA selection. “I'm going to go with Ju Sanang Yu to knock out Michael in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 78.5%. Brito · Dec | Brito · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Transcript-reviewed HopperoMMA selection. “I'm going to go with Yannis and Brit to get this one done by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. O'Neill · Dec | O'Neill · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Transcript-reviewed HopperoMMA selection. “I'm going to go Casey O'Neal by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Shahbazyan · Dec | Shahbazyan · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Transcript-reviewed HopperoMMA selection. “I'm going to go with Edmond Shabbazi to win this one by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 91.5%. Steveson · to win | Sharaf · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Transcript-reviewed HopperoMMA selection. “I'm going to go Gable Stevenson to finish Shawn Shariff in the very first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 91.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Despaigne · KO/TKO · R1 | Despaigne · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Transcript-reviewed HopperoMMA selection. “He ain't going to grapple. He's going to get knocked out in the first.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Gandra · to win | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Transcript-reviewed HopperoMMA selection. “I'm going to go Ryan Gandra to finish Oussie Diaz in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Jourdain · Dec | Vera · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Transcript-reviewed HopperoMMA selection. “Jourdain gets this one done by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Baraniewski · KO/TKO · R1 | Menifield · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Transcript-reviewed HopperoMMA selection. “I'm going to go Baroni by KO in the very first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.9%. Choi · to win | Pitbull · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Transcript-reviewed HopperoMMA selection. “I'm going to go Duho Choy to finish Pitull in the third round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.8%. Tsarukyan · to win | Tsarukyan · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Miss | |
Transcript-reviewed HopperoMMA selection. “I'm going to go Arman Surukin to finish Mauricio Huy via ground and pound in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Van · to win | Van · Dec R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Transcript-reviewed HopperoMMA selection. “I'm going to go Joshua Van to finish Pantoia.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Silva vs. Delgado
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 75.0% 9 3
- Method Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Tarin · Dec | Tarin · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Regina Tarin by decision. “I'm going to go Regina Tarin by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. King · to win | King · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Miss | |
Picks Sean King III to finish the fight in round 2. “I'm going to go with Sean King. I think he gets the finish in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Garcia · Dec | Rongzhu · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Rafa Garcia by decision. “I'm going to go with Rafa Garcia by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Gantt · Dec | Gantt · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Tommy Gantt by decision. “I'm going to go with Tommy Gantt by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Belgaroui · KO/TKO · R1 | Belgaroui · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Yousri Belgaroui by knockout in round 1. “I'm going to go with Belgaroui in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · Dec | Bahamondes · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by decision. “I'm going to go with Bahamondes by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Chairez · to win | Elliott · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Edgar Chairez to win. “I'm going to go Edgar Chairez.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 78.5%. Martinez · Dec | Martinez · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks David Martinez by decision. “I'm going to go with David Martinez to win this one by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Grasso · Dec | Grasso · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Alexa Grasso by decision. “I'm going to go with Alexa Grasso to win this one by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 29.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Rahiki · KO/TKO · R1 | McMillen · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Marwan Rahiki by knockout in round 1. “I'm going to go with Marwan Rahiki by KO in the first round.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 39.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Moreno · Dec | Moreno · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Brandon Moreno by decision. “I'm going to go Moreno by decision.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · KO/TKO | Silva · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Jean Silva by TKO. “Gets the ground and pound TKO finish. So I'm going to go with Jean Silva to win.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Hooker vs. Parnasse
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 8 4
- Method Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Aljarouj · KO/TKO · R2 | Sintes · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favours Aljarouj's crisper striking over Sintes' grappling-heavy but rougher debut profile. “I'm going to go with Michael Alro to win this one by TKO in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 44.5%. Montenegro · Dec | Benouaich · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Rates Montenegro's Contender Series form and power above Benouaich's résumé in what he calls a pick'em. “I'm going to go with Montenegro to win this one by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 44.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.6%. Campbell · Sub · R1 | Campbell · Sub R3 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Expects Campbell's grappling to overwhelm a rusty, defensively loose Peek early. “I'm going to go with Curtis Campbell by submission in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.6% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Lima · Dec | Lima · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Rates Lima's grappling and pace above Charriere's toughness. “I'm going to go Felipe Lima by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Cornolle · Dec | Cornolle · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Argues Cornolle's striking and level of opposition outweigh the hype around Syguła; calls it an underdog pick. “I'm going to go Norah Cornoli by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 46.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Donchenko · KO/TKO · R2 | Donchenko · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Favours Donchenko's pressure and finishing habit over Soriano's underrated but less tested record. “I'm going to go with Daniel Donenko Biko in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.4% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 80.8%. Parnasse · Dec | Parnasse · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Sees Parnasse as the clearly superior striker in his prime against a faded, one-dimensional Hooker. “But I'm going to go Saladine Parnsi by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 34.9%. Ruziboev · Dec | Page · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Argues Page's grappling weakness gets exposed by Ruziboev's underrated wrestling. “Yeah, I'm going to go Rusev to be MVP by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 34.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Pinto · Dec | Pinto · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Trusts Pinto's rounded skill set over Spann's one-dimensional power despite a dull last outing. “I'm going to go Mario Pinto by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Bukauskas · to win | Bukauskas · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Prefers Bukauskas, while the transcript's method wording is not reliable enough to retain a method. “I'm going to go with Modestas Bukauskas.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 29.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Wood · Dec | Andrusca · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Rates Wood's technical striking far above a short-notice regional debutant. “I'm going Nathaniel Wood to win this one by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.9%. Sola · Dec | Sola · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Leans to Sola after Ziam's poor showing against Tom Nolan, while calling the fight very close. “I'm going to go Axel Solar to win this one by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 61.5% 8 5
- Method Accuracy 87.5% 7 1
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Asakura · KO/TKO · R1 | Asakura · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Kai Asakura by first-round knockout. “Asakura by KO in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Lima · Dec | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Andre Lima by decision. “Andre Lima by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Liu · KO/TKO · R1 | Liu · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Liu Ce by first-round knockout. “I'm going to go Liu Ce by KO in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Hasan · KO/TKO · R1 | Hasan · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Bilal Hasan by first-round knockout. “Bilal Hasan by KO in the first one.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Woodson · Dec | Woodson · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Sean Woodson by decision. “I'm going to go Sean Woodson by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Xiong · Dec | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Xiong Jingnan by decision. “I'm going to go Jingnan by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 32.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Lui · Dec | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Lawrence Lui by decision. “Lawrence Lui by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Nelson · Dec | Nelson · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Cam Nelson by decision. “I'm going to go Cam Nelson by decision.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · Dec | Song · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision. “Umar Nurmagomedov by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Sumudaerji · Dec | Sumudaerji · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Sumudaerji by decision. “I'm going to go Sumudaerji by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 66.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Tsuruya · Sub · R1 | Tsuruya · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Rei Tsuruya by first-round submission. “Rei Tsuruya by sub in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Xiao · Dec | Nuzzi · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Xiao Long by decision. “I'mma go Long Xiao by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Yan · Dec | Gomes · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision. “Yan Xiaonan by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 57.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
- Method Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Fernando · KO/TKO · R3 | Fernando · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Rates Fernando's striking above Tobias's takedown threat and expects the debutant to take over late. “I'm going to go Fernando by TKO in the third round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Brahimaj · Dec | Magny · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Sees Brahimaj as the more dangerous fighter and backs him to win a decision despite acknowledging Magny's paths to victory. “I'm going to go Brahimaj by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Johnson · Dec | Johnson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Backs Johnson's size and overall game over McConico, while classing the matchup as lower-level. “I'm going to go Don'Tae Johnson by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 48.5%. Fernandes · Dec | Turner · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Fernandes's activity and sees Turner as too uncertain at this stage of his career. “that fight. He's a dangerous dude, is Caio Fernandes, as well. So, I'm picking Caio Fernandes, as well. So, I'm picking Caio Fernandes to win this fight. He Caio Fernandes to win this fight. He finished Yaya. Battered Kutateladze. finished Yaya. Battered Kutateladze. Destroyed Harry Hardwick, as well. Destroyed Harry Hardwick, as well. Tall, rangy guy who's rapid on the feet.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 48.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · Dec | Njokuani · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Álvarez after noting Njokuani's recent form, but expects a decision rather than a finish. “I'm going to go with Yoel Alvarez. I'm going to pick him to win this one by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Ribovics · KO/TKO · R2 | Ribovics · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Expects Ribovics's pressure and finishing threat to be too much for the 40-year-old Barboza. “So, I'm going to go with Esteban Ribovics by TKO in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 36.5%. Robertson · Dec | Dern · Dec R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Robertson's broader grappling game and expects her to win a decision over Dern. “I think Gillian Robertson could put Mackenzie Dern on her back.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 36.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Makhachev · Dec | Makhachev · Dec R5 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Acknowledges Garry's range and intelligence but expects Makhachev's all-round game and experience to win a competitive decision. “With that being said, this is Makhachev. I'm going Makhachev, and I'm picking him to win this one by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Gamrot · to win | Salkilld · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Goes with Gamrot without committing to a method. “I'm going to go with Gamrot. It's a 50/50 fight. Could genuinely go either way, but I'm going to go with Gamrot.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · Dec | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Calls a unanimous decision for Ferreira. “I'm going to go Diego Ferreira to win this one. Billy Quarantillo, I just don't think he's very good. Diego Ferreira gets this one done by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. del Valle · Sub · R1 | del Valle · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
Expects del Valle to take Elkins down and submit him, citing the knockout loss to Erosa as evidence Elkins no longer belongs at this level. “Yair del Valle. Yair is going to maul him. I'm going to go Yair del Valle by sub in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Miller · KO/TKO · R1 | Miller · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Backs Miller to get the knockout inside the opening round. “I'm going to go with Ty Miller to win this one by KO in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 5 3
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Round Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Medić · KO/TKO · R1 | Medić · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Leans heavily on Rodriguez's long layoff and reads him as a lesser version of Geoff Neal, whom Medic already knocked out. Expects Medic to rush him immediately in front of a wild Serbian crowd. “knockout, then he might get knocked out himself. That's the type of fighter that himself. That's the type of fighter that Uroš Medić is. Uroš Medić is. But I'm going to go with Uroš Medić to But I'm going to go with Uroš Medić to deliver a knockout or in the first round deliver a knockout or in the first round in front of Serbia against Daniel in front of Serbia against Daniel Rodriguez. I think this is going to be Rodriguez. I think this is going to be it for Uroš Medić. I really think this it ” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Błachowicz · Dec | Stirling · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Says Blachowicz has had close fights with every monster at 205 and still has it at 43, while Stirling's record flatters him. Calls the step up on short notice too much too soon. “fight that Jan Blachowicz gets it done. He's in Europe, he's going to have the He's in Europe, he's going to have the home crowd an I'm going to go with Jan home crowd an I'm going to go with Jan Błachowicz by decision. Błachowicz by decision. Nawaz Sterling had a close fight with Nawaz Sterling had a close fight with two Khalil Rountree, Ivan Erslan, and two Khalil Rountree, Ivan Erslan, and Rodolfo Beltran, and only now has he Rodolfo Beltran, and only now has he started finishing fights. He o” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Rakić · KO/TKO · R3 | Rakić · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Calls Tybura a beatable gatekeeper who has looked awful in his last two, while Rakic is the far better, taller, more powerful striker who should suit heavyweight better. “long, athletic, pretty powerful, too. So, So, just a lot more dangerous than Tybura. just a lot more dangerous than Tybura. And I'm going to go with Aleksandar And I'm going to go with Aleksandar Rakic to finish Marcin Tybura. I really Rakic to finish Marcin Tybura. I really do feel like this has to be the fight do feel like this has to be the fight where Rakic breaks his losing streak. If where Rakic breaks his losing streak. If you ain't beating Marcin Tybura, I don't you ain't beating Marcin ” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Valentin · Sub · R1 | Valentin · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Sees Todorovic as very beatable with never-great grappling, and expects the newly locked-in Valentin to skip the striking war, shoot a takedown and hunt a finish on the mat. “I'm going to go with Robert Valentin by some in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Čepo · KO/TKO · R1 | Urbina · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Backs Cepo's 100% finish rate and Oktagon form in front of a home crowd, and dismisses Urbina as 7-4 with one UFC win and finished in his last two. “been finished in his last two fights so far over Mr. Uroš Medić himself and also far over Mr. Uroš Medić himself and also Charles Radtke. I'm I'm to go with uh Charles Radtke. I'm I'm to go with uh Vlasto Čepo to win this one by KO in the Vlasto Čepo to win this one by KO in the first round. first round. I do worry that Vlasto Cepo is one of I do worry that Vlasto Cepo is one of these guys that looks really dominant on these guys that looks really dominant on the regional scene because of certai” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · KO/TKO · R1 | Oliveira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Says he was never on the Oban Elliott hype train — good everywhere, great nowhere — against an athletic undefeated Brazilian with an 89% KO rate. “striking subpar. And then he got dominated by Suk Kim Cowan, destroyed by dominated by Suk Kim Cowan, destroyed by Jonathan Mekhonnin. I'm going to go with Jonathan Mekhonnin. I'm going to go with Michael Oliveira by KO in the first Michael Oliveira by KO in the first round. Yeah, Michael Oliveira looks round. Yeah, Michael Oliveira looks dangerous, man. Very athletic guy, dangerous, man. Very athletic guy, undefeated guy from Brazil who knocks undefeated guy from Brazil who knocks everybody out” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Klein · Dec | Musayev · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Rates Klein one of the best unranked lightweights with the fight IQ, UFC experience and grappling edge, even conceding Musayev is the more powerful striker. “very dirty performance over Bahamondes. Won the fight and actually got a bonus, Won the fight and actually got a bonus, but a very dirty performance overall. Um but a very dirty performance overall. Um I'm going to go with Klein to win this I'm going to go with Klein to win this one by decision. I still don't know how one by decision. I still don't know how I feel about Musayev. He had this big I feel about Musayev. He had this big run over at uh over at Rizin. He beat run over at uh over at Riz” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Grad · Dec | Grad · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Says being semi-good is enough to beat Buzukja, and Grad is a good grappler with solid stand-up who out-grappled Luke Riley early. “I don't think it was the Brazil card. It was actually earlier on this year. I was actually earlier on this year. I forgot who he fought, but he got knocked forgot who he fought, but he got knocked out cold. I'm going to go with a Bogdan out cold. I'm going to go with a Bogdan Grad to win this one by decision. I like Grad to win this one by decision. I like Bogdan Grad. He seems to take his career Bogdan Grad. He seems to take his career serious. Lost against Tom Nolan on the serious. Lost agains” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 70.0% 7 3
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · to win | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Magomed Ankalaev as the full-card pick in this preview. “disrespect him and pick Guskov to beat him. So, I'm going to go with Ankalaev” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Kuniev · to win | Kuniev · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Rizvan Kuniev as the full-card pick in this preview. “beating Marcin Tybura. So, I'm going to go with Rizvan Kuniev. I just think he's” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Sola · to win | Sola · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Axel Sola as the full-card pick in this preview. “years. Um, I'm going to go with Axel Solo to win this one. Yeah, this should be a pretty straightforward win in my opinion to Axel Solo. He just lost to Mason Jones who's an absolute warrior,” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Walker · to win | Walker · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Valter Walker as the full-card pick in this preview. “Yeah, it's going to be another heel hook. I'm going to go with Valter Walker” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Davis · to win | Aliev · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Names Mike Davis as the full-card pick in this preview. “Aliev has faced. And Aliev isn't dominating these guys. So, I'm going to” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 32.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Erceg · to win | Temirov · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Steve Erceg, citing the more proven and well-rounded fighter after Temirov's long layoff. “step down in competition. Doesn't really make much sense.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Patterson · to win | Patterson · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Sam Patterson as the full-card pick in this preview. “hasn't faced anybody good so far. I'm going to go with Sam Patterson to” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.0%. Vagaev · to win | Vagaev · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Abubakar Vagaev as the full-card pick in this preview. “decent organizations, but I'm going to go with Abubakar Vakhaev to” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Jacoby · to win | Saidov · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Names Dustin Jacoby as the full-card pick in this preview. “dude. So, I'm going to go with Dustin Jacoby by KO in the first round. Yeah,” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 84.5%. Hussein · to win | Hussein · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Abdul Hussein as the full-card pick in this preview. “I'm going to go with Abdul Hussein to knock out Cody Gibson in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 84.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 72.7% 8 3
- Method Accuracy 62.5% 5 3
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R2 | Holloway · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Max Holloway because McGregor's long layoff, lifestyle questions and repaired leg are too much to trust against an active elite striker. He gives McGregor a puncher's chance, but expects Holloway's pace and current form to overwhelm him in round two. “I'm going to go with Max Holloway to win this one by TK on the second round” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Bautista · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes Mario Bautista as an underdog because he can threaten Cory Sandhagen in both striking and grappling phases. He thinks Sandhagen's elite schedule matters, but Bautista's all-around pressure gives Sandhagen more to solve than a one-discipline matchup. “going to go with Mario Batista to beat Cory Sanding” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · Dec | Royval · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Sides with Lone'er Kavanagh's speed, kicking game and technical striking in a striker-friendly matchup. He respects Brandon Royval's elite experience and volume, but thinks Kavanagh is the smoother fighter over three rounds. “I'm going to go with Lonnie Kavanaaugh to win this one by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 68.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 89.5%. Steveson · Sub · R1 | Steveson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
Backs Gable Steveson's Olympic wrestling and Jon Jones camp work to be too much for Elisha Ellison. He sees the matchup as designed for Steveson to get takedowns, control the fight and find an early submission. “I'm going to go with Gable Stevenson to submit him in the first round” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 89.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Whittaker · Dec | Whittaker · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Robert Whittaker to win on skill despite moving up to light heavyweight. He sees Nikita Krylov as a fair first opponent at the weight and expects Whittaker's striking class and takedown defense to carry a three-round decision. “And I am going to go with Whitaker to win this one by decision” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Wang · Dec | Wang · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Trusts Wang Cong's sharper striking and improved anti-grappling against Tracy Cortez's wrestling game. He expects Cortez to have moments, including possible takedowns, but thinks Wang keeps enough of the fight standing to win rounds. “to go Wang Kong to beat Tracy Cortez by decision” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · KO/TKO · R1 | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Rates Luke Riley's boxing, Cage Warriors experience and finishing power well above the threat Kai Kamaka brings. He expects Riley to handle the grappling well enough and land a heavy first-round shot. “I'm going to go with Luke Riley by KO in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yanez · KO/TKO · R2 | Yanez · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Leans Adrian Yanez because Cody Garbrandt's recent durability and defensive lapses worry him against a cleaner offensive boxer. He gives Garbrandt a chance, but expects Yanez's hands to catch up to him and force a second-round finish. “I'm going to go with Adrian to finish Cody Garin in the second round” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 44.5%. Reese · KO/TKO · R1 | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Zachary Reese to rebound with his size, striking and finishing ability. He acknowledges Ryan Gandra looked good in his UFC arrival, but trusts Reese as the bigger, more rounded fighter with the power to end it early. “I'm going to go with Zachary Ree to beat Ryan Gandra” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 44.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · KO/TKO · R1 | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Sees Alessandro Costa as far too dangerous on the feet for Cody Durden. He expects Costa to keep the fight standing, punish Durden's defensive gaps and land the kind of power shot that ends the fight in round one. “I'm going to go Aleandro Costa to knock out Cody Denon in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Saint Denis · Dec | Pimblett · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls it a close, low-confidence fight but picks Benoit Saint Denis for having more ways to win. He expects Saint Denis to punish Paddy Pimblett's striking defense, mix in his own grappling and do enough across three rounds. “I'm going to go with Ben Saint to win this one” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Kape vs Horiguchi
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 38.5%. Horiguchi · Dec | Kape · TKO (punches) R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
HopperoMMA picks Kyoji Horiguchi by decision. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 38.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
UFC Freedom 250
Topuria vs. Gaethje
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R1 | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Gaethje is a brawly striker who gets dropped easily, while Topuria is the sharpest technical boxer in the UFC who specialises in knocking out technical strikers. The matchup is tailor-made for Topuria, who also out-grapples Gaethje if it hits the floor.
“I'm going to go with Ilia Topuria by KO in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 52.5%. Pereira · KO/TKO · R1 | Gane · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Pereira has built a career knocking out elite technical strikers, while Gane's best striking win is Volkov and he carries no real grappling or knockout threat. Gane is smooth and hard to hit, but Pereira has the power and resume and the host trusts him to find a way.
“I'm going to go Alex to finish Ciryl Gane in the very first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 52.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. O'Malley · KO/TKO · R2 | O'Malley · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
O'Malley has faced far better strikers and grapplers across his career than Zahabi, a 38-year-old who only barely beat Aldo and Vera. The host sees O'Malley as the most dynamic striker in the division and expects vintage form.
“O'Malley. I am going to go with O'Malley by finish. I think O'Malley finishes I” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Hokit · KO/TKO · R1 | Hokit · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Hokit has legit NFL-grade wrestling and Lewis has essentially none, having been out-grappled by much of the division. The host expects an immediate takedown and ground-and-pound, and believes Lewis — a known quitter in high-stakes fights — gives up once on his back.
“Yeah, I'm going to go with Josh Hockett to finish Derrick Lewis by ground and pound finish in the very first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.0%. Ruffy · KO/TKO · R1 | Ruffy · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Ruffy is one of the most precise strikers in the division after his KO of Fiziev, while the 40-year-old Chandler is hittable, droppable and coming off poor showings — even Pimblett out-struck him. The host expects Ruffy to counter Chandler's wild swings with a big shot.
“with Mauricio Huffy to knock out Michael Chandler in the first round and probably retire Michael Chandler.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Nickal · Dec | Nickal · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Nickal is favoured everywhere — underrated striking plus a huge wrestling base — and the host sees him a step ahead wherever it goes. Daukaus is dangerous and well-rounded and holds his own, but the host doesn't think he beats Nickal.
“with a decision. I'm going Bo Nickal to beat Kyle Dolidze by a” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Lopes · Dec | Lopes · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Garcia is a sloppy, very hittable fighter taking a massive step up, while Lopes has gone fifty minutes with Volkanovski and finished Jean Silva. The host thinks Lopes is a step ahead and too sharp, though Lopes tends to go to decision.
“I'm going to go with Diego Lopes to beat Steve Garcia by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 328
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Chimaev · Sub · R1 | Strickland · Dec R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Chimaev shoots immediately, gets it to the floor and submits Strickland in the first. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Taira · Sub · R2 | Van · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
If it hits the ground Van is in trouble; Taira's grappling finds a second-round submission. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Volkov · Dec | Volkov · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
The best heavyweight on the planet keeps Acosta at range with kicks for a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Buckley · KO/TKO · R1 | Brady · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Buckley's explosive power and Brady's questionable chin point to a first-round TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Green · KO/TKO | Green · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Green's defensive boxing outclasses a low-level Stephens and finds a stoppage. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 327
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 3
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Procházka · KO/TKO · R3 | Ulberg · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Ulberg looks good early but Jiri lands the big shot for a third-round TKO. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 68.0%. Murzakanov · KO/TKO · R2 | Costa · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Costa is unreliable moving up in weight; Murzakanov's power gets a second-round KO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 68.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Hokit · KO/TKO · R1 | Hokit · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Blaydes is on the downfall and Hokit is a nasty matchup; a first-round TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 51.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Reyes · KO/TKO · R1 | Reyes · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Reyes is a level above and finds Walker's chin first for a first-round KO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.0%. Swanson · KO/TKO · R3 | Swanson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Swanson's boxing and experience win a war, finishing Landwehr in the third. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC Seattle
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 2
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Adesanya · Dec | Pyfer · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Adesanya's striking is light-years ahead even past prime; the safe pick is a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Barber · Dec | Grasso · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Barber is the more relentless wrestler and controls Grasso for a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Chiesa · Sub · R1 | Chiesa · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Chiesa has submission momentum and takes down a washed Price for a first-round sub. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 88.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 74.5%. Douglas · KO/TKO · R1 | Douglas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Douglas's boxing and KO power find a hittable Erosa's chin early. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 36.5%. Nelson · KO/TKO · R1 | McKinney · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Nelson's power exploits McKinney's glass chin once he survives the early onslaught. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 36.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
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