HopperoMMA

Gaethje is a brawly striker who gets dropped easily, while Topuria is the sharpest technical boxer in the UFC who specialises in knocking out technical strikers. The matchup is tailor-made for Topuria, who also out-grapples Gaethje if it hits the floor.

• Topuria has the edge everywhere, including grappling if it goes long
• Gaethje's only edge is heavy low kicks vs Topuria's front-leg-heavy stance
• Slight caveat: first fight since Topuria's divorce — could fight emotionally

“It's tailor made for Ilia.”

Pereira has built a career knocking out elite technical strikers, while Gane's best striking win is Volkov and he carries no real grappling or knockout threat. Gane is smooth and hard to hit, but Pereira has the power and resume and the host trusts him to find a way.

• Low-confidence pick — unknown how Pereira looks at heavyweight
• Gane is the first opponent not smaller than Pereira
• Wants an instant DQ if Gane eye-pokes

O'Malley has faced far better strikers and grapplers across his career than Zahabi, a 38-year-old who only barely beat Aldo and Vera. The host sees O'Malley as the most dynamic striker in the division and expects vintage form.

• High confidence — 'most winnable opponent O'Malley's had in years'
• MMA-math nod: O'Malley destroyed Vera, who pushed Zahabi close
• Predicts O'Malley's first finish since Almakdam

Hokit has legit NFL-grade wrestling and Lewis has essentially none, having been out-grappled by much of the division. The host expects an immediate takedown and ground-and-pound, and believes Lewis — a known quitter in high-stakes fights — gives up once on his back.

• Medium confidence — Lewis is the hardest puncher in the division
• Hokit is hittable and must stick to grappling, not trade
• Win comes via ground-and-pound TKO in round one

Ruffy is one of the most precise strikers in the division after his KO of Fiziev, while the 40-year-old Chandler is hittable, droppable and coming off poor showings — even Pimblett out-struck him. The host expects Ruffy to counter Chandler's wild swings with a big shot.

• High confidence; sees the UFC building Ruffy
• Only path to a loss is if his grappling hasn't improved and Chandler leans on it
• Likely retires Chandler

Nickal is favoured everywhere — underrated striking plus a huge wrestling base — and the host sees him a step ahead wherever it goes. Daukaus is dangerous and well-rounded and holds his own, but the host doesn't think he beats Nickal.

• Medium confidence — wary since the de Ridder loss
• Concern: a de Ridder repeat where Nickal looks good then gets finished
• Daukaus is a finishing threat everywhere

Garcia is a sloppy, very hittable fighter taking a massive step up, while Lopes has gone fifty minutes with Volkanovski and finished Jean Silva. The host thinks Lopes is a step ahead and too sharp, though Lopes tends to go to decision.

• Medium confidence — admits the odds (~63%) are closer than expected
• Garcia's danger is real — seven of his last eight by KO
• A very winnable stylistic matchup for Lopes, not a domination

Green's defensive boxing outclasses a low-level Stephens and finds a stoppage.

The best heavyweight on the planet keeps Acosta at range with kicks for a decision.

Blaydes is on the downfall and Hokit is a nasty matchup; a first-round TKO.

Reyes is a level above and finds Walker's chin first for a first-round KO.

Swanson's boxing and experience win a war, finishing Landwehr in the third.

Chiesa has submission momentum and takes down a washed Price for a first-round sub.

Douglas's boxing and KO power find a hittable Erosa's chin early.