TheWeasle creates fight analysis designed to be approachable while examining fights in depth. His earlier MMA Meeting podcast discussed MMA news and opinions and answered listener questions.
Scorecard
Called 115 of 163 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
- Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
- Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
- Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows: read where a line sits alongside its denominator. Winner covers every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss
115 of 163 — 71% now, from 100% at their first scored card. The first 2 points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
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Method
62% 47 of 76 correct winners that named a method
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Round
37% 19 of 52 correct winners that named a round
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Underdog
53% 9 of 17 priced underdog calls
The opening point is drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first. One mark per resolved call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- UFC 332 10 hit · 3 miss
- Crypto.com UFC 331 6 hit · 6 miss
- Silva vs. Delgado 9 hit · 3 miss
- Nurmagomedov vs. Song 9 hit · 2 miss
- UFC 330 1 hit · 1 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 6 hit · 1 miss
- UFC 329 9 hit · 4 miss
- UFC Freedom 250 5 hit · 2 miss
- UFC 328 3 hit · 2 miss
- UFC 327 3 hit · 2 miss
- UFC Seattle 5 hit · 1 miss
- UFC 326 8 hit · 4 miss
- UFC 325 3 hit · 5 miss
- Machado Garry vs Prates 11 hit · 3 miss
- Dern vs Ribas 2 9 hit · 5 miss
- UFC 302 1 hit · 0 miss
- UFC 300 0 hit · 2 miss
- UFC 298 12 hit · 0 miss
- UFC Fight Night 221 0 hit · 1 miss
- UFC 284 1 hit · 0 miss
- UFC 280 0 hit · 1 miss
- UFC 254 1 hit · 0 miss
- UFC Fight Night 149 3 hit · 0 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
UFC 332
Silva vs. Wang
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 76.9% 10 3
- Method Accuracy 88.9% 8 1
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hernandez · Dec | Hernandez · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
He expects Hernandez to defend most of Dos Anjos's takedowns and use lateral movement and pressure to make RDA work going backward, where he says RDA's game is weaker. He also favors Hernandez's wrestling and athleticism and predicts a decision.
“And ultimately, I see him decisioning RDA.” | |||||
| Talbott · KO/TKO · R3 | Talbott · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
He sees Talbott as much larger for the division, technically strong, increasingly capable of wrestling, and able to take a shot; he warns that Figueiredo's power still must be respected. He predicts cumulative damage leading to a third-round knockout, naming Talbott's right straight and a head kick as possible finish routes.
“I do see him getting knocked out for the first time in his career.” | |||||
| Gautier · Dec | Kopylov · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
He says Kopylov's low output can leave Gautier chances to pick shots from range; Gautier has size and reach, good boxing, and careful defense. He predicts a Gautier decision if Kopylov maintains his usual pace, while saying more output could change his view and make him favor Kopylov.
“I think he's going to win this by a decision.” * If Kopylov raises his output, the analyst says he thinks Kopylov will win. | |||||
| Ribovics · KO/TKO · R2 | Ribovics · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
He expects a close, technical first round, then thinks Ribovics' aggressive combinations, kicks at the ends of combinations, pace, and durability will overwhelm Green in round two. He notes that Green can land counters and has previously upset favorites, but predicts Ribovics by second-round knockout.
“Estebon Rivovich knocking out Bobby Green in the second round.” * Green's counters could test Ribovics' durability, though he still expects Ribovics to absorb shots and overwhelm Green with pace. | |||||
| Nolan · KO/TKO · R3 | Nolan · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
He expects Nolan to be more athletic, powerful, and fast, with stronger boxing combinations and knees. He thinks Nolan can make McGee react to hand pressure with a takedown and time a knee, while McGee's toughness may keep the fight competitive; his pick is Nolan by third-round knockout.
“So, Eric Nolan knockout.” | |||||
| McGhee · to win | McGhee · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
He expects an exciting striking match, but gives McGhee the edge because he switches stances and can create angles that challenge Romero's usually fixed southpaw stance. Romero is praised for knees, elbows, combinations, and a confident left straight, yet he expects McGhee's versatility and angle changes to decide the fight.
“ultimately I think the versatility because he's ambidextrous is going to get Marcus McGee to win this fight.” | |||||
| Pinas · KO/TKO · R1 | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
He expects Pinas to be patient and pick his shots, and contrasts Pulyaev with Almeida, whose naked leg kick Pinas timed with a right hand. He predicts another first-round knockout for Pinas.
“another first round knockout for Damen Penz. Four in a row. That's what I'm expecting here.” | |||||
| Coria · Dec | Rodriguez · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
He sees Coria as the bigger, more technical boxer who can keep Rodriguez at range with knees, front kicks, a jab, and combinations; Rodriguez would need to close distance with fast combinations and avoid reckless counters. He expects Coria's distance management and countering to produce more damage, and guesses Coria may have improved his takedown defense after the Nicoll fight, leading to a decision.
“So, I'm going to go with him in this one being the much bigger and longer fighter with also having improved takedown defense.” * He calls it somewhat close. | |||||
| Silva · Dec | Silva · Dec R5 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
He thinks Wang's Muay Thai and calf kicks could hinder Silva's movement and considers Wang's kickboxing experience a strong style match. He favors Silva's greater MMA experience and grappling, expecting her to mix takedowns into an otherwise close striking fight and win by decision.
“I ultimately I'm going to go with Natala Silva to win this fight.” * Wang's calf kicks could slow Silva's movement and make the striking difficult; he still favors Silva's MMA experience and grappling. | |||||
| Smith · KO/TKO · R2 | Smith · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Whitehead is described as technical, with a balanced stance, combinations, and timed knees; Smith's hand power and wrestling are the difference in the analyst's view. He expects Smith to combine the two and finish with ground-and-pound TKO in round two.
“Jacobe Smith TKOs him with ground and pound in the second round, combining his striking with his wrestling very easily.” | |||||
| Naurdiev · Dec | Naurdiev · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
He describes this as close and says Vettori could win by pressing and wrestling, using his chin to remain in exchanges. Still, he sees Naurdiev as faster, more powerful, and the more technical striker, with the greater damage leading to a decision.
“I'm going to go with Ishmail Nardiv getting the win by decision.” * He calls it very close and says he can see Vettori winning if he pressures and shoots takedowns. | |||||
| Parkin · KO/TKO · R1 | Walker · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Walker is the faster, more athletic fighter, but the analyst doubts his chin and fight IQ as he moves to heavyweight. He sees heavyweight power as a major problem for Walker and predicts Parkin to knock him out in the first round.
“So, I'm going to go with Mick Parkin in this one.” | |||||
| Wint · KO/TKO · R1 | Wint · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
He calls this an easy win for Wint, saying Wint is more athletic and has better technical striking and ground game, with more finishing potential in both phases. He predicts a first-round knockout.
“it's just going to be an easy win for Wint. I'm going first round knockout.” | |||||
Crypto.com UFC 331
Van vs. Pantoja 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
- Round Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 78.5%. Brito · Sub · R2 | Brito · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Joanderson Brito by Submission in round 2. “So, I'm going to go Jo Anderson Breto submitting Giga Shikad in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. O'Neill · Dec | O'Neill · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Casey O’Neill by Decision. “I'm ultimately going to go with Casey O'Neal winning this fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Shahbazyan · Dec | Shahbazyan · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Edmen Shahbazyan by Decision. “ultimately winning the fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Gandra · KO/TKO · R1 | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO in round 1. “Ryan Gondra first round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Yoo · Dec | Aswell Jr. · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Joosang Yoo by Decision. “So, I'm going to go with him winning this fight by a decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Despaigne · KO/TKO · R2 | Despaigne · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Robelis Despaigne by KO/TKO in round 2. “Rebellas of Spain, second round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Jourdain · Dec | Vera · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Charles Jourdain by Decision. “I'm going to go with Jerdane by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 91.5%. Steveson · KO/TKO · R2 | Sharaf · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Gable Steveson by KO/TKO in round 2. “Gable Stevenson is yet again going to get another knockout in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 91.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Baraniewski · to win | Menifield · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Iwo Baraniewski (winner only). “Evo Barvki, I believe, might submit Menfield instead of knocking him out, but I could see either. So, I think he finishes him in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.9%. Choi · KO/TKO · R2 | Pitbull · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Dooho Choi by KO/TKO in round 2. “I think he knocks Pit Bull out in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.8%. Tsarukyan · Sub · R3 | Tsarukyan · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Arman Tsarukyan by Submission in round 3. “I'm going to go with Armen Sarukian by a third round submission.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Pantoja · Dec | Van · Dec R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Alexandre Pantoja by Decision. “I'm going to say my pick for this fight, I'm going to go with the underdog, Alexander Pentosia. I think Pentosia is going to win a split decision or a very close decision against Vaughn” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
Silva vs. Delgado
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 75.0% 9 3
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 6 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 3
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Tarin · Dec | Tarin · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Regina Tarin by Decision. “I'm going to go with Regina Tarin winning by a decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · Dec | Bahamondes · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by Decision. “Ultimately, Ignacio Bahamondes wins the fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO · R1 | Blaydes · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by KO in round 1. “I'm going to go with Waldo Cortes Acosta knocking out Curtis Blaydes in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 35.5%. Elliott · Dec | Elliott · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Tim Elliott by Decision. “Tim Elliott by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 35.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Fiorot · Dec | Grasso · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Manon Fiorot by Decision. “I'm going to go with Manon Fiorot decisioning Alexa Grasso.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rongzhu · Dec | Rongzhu · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Rongzhu by Decision. “I think Rongzhu wins the fight by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. King · Dec | King · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Sean King III by Decision. “I think Sean King's going to win this by a decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Gantt · Sub · R2 | Gantt · Sub R3 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Tommy Gantt by Submission in round 2. “I'm going to go with Tommy Gantt to win by a submission in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 78.5%. Martinez · Dec | Martinez · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks David Martinez by Decision. “I'm going to go with Martinez decisioning Dan Ige.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. McMillen · KO/TKO · R2 | McMillen · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Picks Tommy McMillen by TKO in round 2. “I'm going with Tommy McMillen TKO'ing Marwan Rahiki in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Morales · Dec | Moreno · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Joseph Morales by Decision. “The pressure from Morales is going to be what ultimately wins this by decision.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · KO/TKO · R1 | Silva · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Picks Jean Silva by KO in round 1. “I'm going to go with Silva by a first-round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 81.8% 9 2
- Method Accuracy 55.6% 5 4
- Round Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · Dec | Song · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Umar Nurmagomedov to control the bout with wrestling and win a decision. “I'm ultimately going to go with the Umar to win this by a decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Nelson · Sub · R2 | Nelson · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Picks Cam Nelson by second-round submission. “He is going to get that takedown, get his back, choke him out.” | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 23.5%. Santiago · KO/TKO · R1 | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Hector Santiago by first-round knockout. “I'm going to go with Hector Santiago knocking out Lawrence Louie in the first round.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 23.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Nuzzi · Dec | Nuzzi · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Francesco Nuzzi by decision. “I'm going Francesco Nutti to win this fight by a decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 39.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Woodson · Dec | Woodson · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Sean Woodson by decision. “I'm going Shawn Woodson by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Lima · KO/TKO · R3 | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
Picks Andre Lima by third-round knockout. “Eventually knock him out in the third round after accumulation of shots throughout the fight.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Hasan · KO/TKO · R2 | Hasan · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Bilal Hasan by second-round knockout. “Bilal Hassan knocks out Nelson Rojas in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Sumudaerji · KO/TKO · R3 | Sumudaerji · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Picks Sumudaerji by third-round knockout. “So, I'm going to go with Sumidarji by a third round TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 66.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Asakura · KO/TKO · R2 | Asakura · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Kai Asakura by second-round knockout. “So, Kai Asakura knocking out Ai Chilang in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Yan · Dec | Gomes · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Yan Xiaonan by decision. “So, I'm going to go with Yan Xiaonan by a decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 57.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Tsuruya · Sub · R2 | Tsuruya · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Rei Tsuruya by second-round submission; the captioned name is garbled but the opponent and card context resolve the bout. “I'm going to go with Ray Seruya to win this fight by a second round submission.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · KO/TKO · R1 | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Expects Mansur Abdul-Malik to overwhelm Stoltzfus with wrestling and ground-and-pound for a first-round TKO. “likes to keep his back on the fence. So, I'm going with Mansour by a first round TKO. Easiest win on the card.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Makhachev · Sub · R3 | Makhachev · Dec R5 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Expects Makhachev's grappling advantage to produce a third-round submission over Garry. “So, ultimately, I'm going with Islam Makhachev submitting Ian Garry in the third round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 85.7% 6 1
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
- Round Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · Sub · R2 | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Sees Ferreira drop Quarantillo with an overhand and choke him out in the second. “So, I'm going to go Diego Fera submitting Billy Q after dropping with an overhand choking him out in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. del Valle · Sub · R2 | del Valle · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Points to the athleticism and footwork gap plus Elkins's long layoff, and expects a second-round submission. “I'm going to go with Yadier Dva. Utterly destroying Darren Alkins by submission in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Miller · KO/TKO · R3 | Miller · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Expects Miller to drop Goff with the right hand and finish him in the third. “And Tai drops golf with the right hand, finishing him in the third round. So, I'm going to go with Tai Miller by knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Thainara · Dec | Thainara · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Has Thainara out-pointing Lemos over three rounds. “So, Alexia Tanara by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 35.0%. Montanha · Sub · R1 | Montanha · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Expects Sutherland to give up his back and get choked out inside the first round. “Ground upon Southerntherland gives up his back, a rear naked choke, and Matana wins by a firstround submission.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 35.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 27.5%. Pat · KO/TKO · R2 | Asplund · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Expects Pat to pick Asplund apart for a second-round TKO. “But if he doesn't, then Pat is going to pick him apart for a second round TKO.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 27.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Miller · Sub · R2 | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Takes Miller by second-round submission. “I think Miller is going to submit her with a rear naked choke. I would say in the second round.” | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 69.2% 9 4
- Method Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · KO/TKO · R2 | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Hit | |
Sees Costa's power, strength and finishing upside as the difference against Durden's wrestling-first game. He expects Costa to threaten guillotines enough to make the takedowns costly, then track Durden's limited defensive reactions and finish with ground-and-pound in round two. “Ending the fight by TKO in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 44.5%. Reese · Sub · R3 | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Acknowledges Gandra's first-round power as the danger, but trusts Reese as the more skilled and technical fighter if he survives the early storm. He expects Reese to use body kicks and grappling as the fight extends, then submit Gandra with a rear-naked choke in round three. “I'm going to go with the more skilled fighter.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 44.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Basharat · Sub · R2 | Basharat · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Explicitly notes the opponent change from Ethan Ewing to John Garza and treats Garza as a short-notice UFC debutant with real striking but a clear skill gap. He expects Basharat to out-jab him, blend wrestling with the striking, then use the grappling edge for a second-round rear-naked choke. “down again and submits him with a rear naked choke. So, I'm going to go with Far Basharat, just being more wellrounded and using his grappling to win the fight.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Pinas · KO/TKO · R2 | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Respects Almeida's kickboxing experience but thinks Pinas is explosive enough, long enough and straight enough with his entries to beat Almeida to the target. He expects some competitive striking exchanges before Pinas' speed and accuracy produce a second-round knockout. “I'm going to go Damian Pinas knocking out Caesar Almeida in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Wang · Dec | Wang · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Calls Wang Cong the more technical, faster and more powerful striker, with more variety than Cortez on the feet. He thinks Cortez needs takedowns to change the fight, but trusts Wang's takedown defense and output enough to win a decision. “I'm going to go with Wong Tong winning this fight by a decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · KO/TKO · R2 | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Gives Kamaka a chance to land early boxing, but sees Riley's offensive pressure and power as the deciding traits once exchanges open up. He expects Riley to keep throwing through Kamaka's offense and overpower him for a second-round knockout. “I think Luke Riley at the end of the day is going to overpower him in these exchanges, knocking him out in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Yanez · KO/TKO · R1 | Yanez · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Does not trust Garbrandt's durability against Yanez's boxing. He expects Yanez to find Garbrandt early and finish him in the first round. “I'm going to go with Adrien Yanez knocking out Cody Garbrandt in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 89.5%. Steveson · KO/TKO · R1 | Steveson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Treats the matchup as a showcase for Steveson's elite wrestling and athleticism against an opponent he thinks is badly overmatched. He expects Steveson to maul Ellison quickly and finish in round one. “I'm going with Gable Steveson annihilating Alicia Ellison in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 89.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Whittaker · KO/TKO · R3 | Whittaker · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Likes Whittaker's speed and timing at light heavyweight against Krylov's aggressive blitzes. He expects Krylov to overextend late, get countered, and be finished by ground-and-pound in round three. “I'm going to go with Robert Whittaker by a third round TKO, winning his light heavyweight debut.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · KO/TKO · R3 | Royval · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Rates Kavanagh as a future champion-level talent and thinks his speed, kicks and punching entries will make Royval miss too often. He expects Kavanagh to pick Royval apart and eventually knock him out in the third round. “I think Kavanagh is going to knock Royval out in the third round. Too many one-twos connecting throughout this fight for Kavanagh not to knock him out.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 68.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Sandhagen · Dec | Bautista · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Sees a high-level rematch where Bautista will land and test whether Sandhagen's chin has slipped, but still trusts Sandhagen's range tools. He expects Sandhagen's long-range work and jab to edge a 29-28 unanimous decision. “I ultimately think Cory Sandhagen's range work is going to win in this fight on a decision. So, I'm going to go with Cory Sandhagen winning a 29-28 unanimous decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 57.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Saint Denis · Dec | Pimblett · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Frames Saint Denis as the fighter more likely to force the pressure and damage in a wild, size-for-size lightweight clash. He gives Pimblett the cardio edge and a possible late rally, but expects Saint Denis to win the first two rounds and take a decision. “I'm going with Benoit Saint Denis. Patty didn't have the power to earn Gachi's respect. So, I'm gonna go with Ben Saint Denis winning this fight by a decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R3 | Holloway · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Gives McGregor a real early power-and-style path, especially at 170 pounds, but thinks five years away has made him too slow and rusty. He expects Holloway's speed, movement, body-head volume and activity to wear McGregor down for a third-round fence-side TKO. “I'm gonna go with Max Holloway, TKO and Conor McGregor against the fence with a combination.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC Freedom 250
Topuria vs. Gaethje
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
- Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Topuria's cage-cutting and one-punch power are too much. He works into the pocket, rips the body, and lands the overhand on top for a first-round finish. “So, I'm going to go with Ilia Topuria knocking Justin Gaethje out in the first round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 52.5%. Pereira · KO/TKO · R2 | Gane · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Pereira's leg kicks limit Gane's footwork and force a mistake, then Pereira counters with the left hook and finishes with ground-and-pound to become the first three-division champ. “going to go with Alex Pereira knocking Ciryl Gane out in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 52.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. O'Malley · Dec | O'Malley · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
O'Malley's striking is on a far higher level and Zahabi has seen nothing he can't handle, but Zahabi's toughness keeps him alive to a decision. “O'Malley decisioning Aiemann Zahabi, winning every single round of the fight.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Hokit · KO/TKO · R1 | Hokit · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Hokit's speed and feints freeze Lewis, he blitzes in, scores the takedown and finishes with elbows and hammer fists. “So, I'm going to go Josh Hoka by a first round knockout via ground and pound.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. * The transcript identifies the matchup as Derrick Lewis versus Josh Barnett, not the canonical Derrick Lewis versus Josh Hokit bout; the candidate is retained but cannot be mapped across the matchup change. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.0%. Ruffy · KO/TKO · R1 | Ruffy · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Chandler's fight IQ won't let him wrestle on the White House card; he swings haymakers and gets flatlined by Ruffy's check left hook and right straight. “He's going to go out there and swing haymakers and get flatlined by a right hand from Huffy and and that's the end of the show for Chandler. It's done after that. At that point, he should retire. If he gets flatline KO'ed by Mura Huy, he should just retire.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Nickal · Dec | Nickal · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Nickal out-wrestles and controls Daukaus, defending submissions to advance position and winning on composure and wrestling by decision. “guys. So, my pick for this fight, I'm going to go with Bo Nickal” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Lopes · KO/TKO · R2 | Lopes · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Lopes is far more durable than Garcia, who is too open for his own good, so Lopes weathers a chaotic first and knocks him out in the second. “fights. And that is why I'm going to go with Diego Lopez to win this fight by a” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 328
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Chimaev · to win | Strickland · Dec R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Goes with the heavy favourite — Strickland's upright stance invites the takedowns Chimaev lives on. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Taira · Sub · R4 | Van · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
The bigger man and far better grappler; Taira's control finds a fourth-round submission. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Volkov · Dec | Volkov · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Volkov's technique, height and reach keep Waldo at range for a close 29-28 decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 37.5%. Brady · Sub · R2 | Brady · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Brady takes Buckley down and submits him in the second. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 37.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Green · KO/TKO · R2 | Green · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Green's cleaner boxing counters Stephens' wild shots and finishes him. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 327
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 3
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Procházka · KO/TKO · R3 | Ulberg · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Jiri overwhelms Ulberg with output against the cage and finishes with ground-and-pound in the third. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 49.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 68.0%. Murzakanov · KO/TKO · R2 | Costa · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Murzakanov's left hand finds Costa's poor defense for a second-round knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 68.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Hokit · KO/TKO · R3 | Hokit · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Hokit's athleticism and speed cancel Blaydes's wrestling for a third-round TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 51.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Reyes · KO/TKO · R2 | Reyes · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
The more technical, fundamentally sound fighter; Reyes lands a second-round knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.0%. Swanson · KO/TKO · R3 | Swanson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Swanson's technique and footwork beat Landwehr's recklessness; a third-round knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC Seattle
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 83.3% 5 1
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 5
- Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Pyfer · KO/TKO · R3 | Pyfer · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Adesanya is washed; Pyfer's power catches him in the third after losing the first two. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 43.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Barber · Dec | Grasso · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Barber's improved footwork edges a very close, possibly split, decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Chiesa · Sub · R1 | Chiesa · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Chiesa uses his grappling to take Price down and submit him in the first. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 88.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 74.5%. Douglas · KO/TKO · R1 | Douglas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Douglas's powerful, calculated punching finishes a defenseless Erosa in the first. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Belgaroui · KO/TKO · R2 | Belgaroui · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Belgaroui's elite kickboxing is too much standing; a second-round knockout. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 43.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. McKinney · KO/TKO · R2 | McKinney · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
McKinney's size and power overwhelm Nelson with takedowns for a second-round TKO. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 326
Holloway vs Oliveira 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 8 4
- Method Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 4
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Borralho · Dec | Borralho · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
TheWeasle expects Borralho to stay composed, counter RDR and win the decision as RDR slows. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 66.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Johnson · KO/TKO · R2 | Dober · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle expects Johnson to look fast early, then sees Dober get caught as fatigue sets in. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 32.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 35.5%. Oliveira · Sub · R3 | Oliveira · Decision - Unanimous R5 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
TheWeasle sees Oliveira taking Max down, reversing a scramble and finding the submission in the third round. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 35.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 40.5%. Ferreira · KO/TKO · R3 | Rodrigues · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle expects Bruno Ferreira to land the deciding power shot again, this time in round three. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 40.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Rosas Jr. · Dec | Rosas Jr. · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
TheWeasle expects Rosas to exploit Font’s takedown defense and win a 30-27 decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Sumudaerji · Dec | Sumudaerji · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
TheWeasle expects Sumudaerji to keep the fight at range and win a decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Xiao · KO/TKO · R3 | Garbrandt · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle expects Long Xiao to draw Garbrandt into exchanges and knock him out in round three. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 86.5%. Johnson · KO/TKO · R1 | Johnson · Decision - Split R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
TheWeasle expects Dante Johnson’s hand speed to make the difference and produce a quick knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 86.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.0%. Montes · Dec | Montes · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
TheWeasle expects Alberto Montes to handle Turcios’ takedowns and win by decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.0%. Tumendemberel · Sub · R3 | Tumendemberel · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
TheWeasle favors Nyamjargal’s grappling and power to win by third-round submission. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 39.0%. Nurgozhay · KO/TKO · R2 | Nurgozhay · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
TheWeasle picks Diyar Nurgozhay to counter Rafael Tobias and finish him with ground-and-pound in round two. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 39.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Fernandez · KO/TKO · R1 | Bellato · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle expects Luke Fernandez to use his power and finish Rodolfo Bellato in the first round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 325
Volkanovski vs Lopes 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Rowston · KO/TKO | Rowston · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
TheWeasle expects Cam Rowston’s pressure and ground work to produce a stoppage over Cody Brundage. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Yizha · Dec | Ofli · Decision - Majority R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle picks Yizha to win a competitive fight by decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Sulangrangbo · KO/TKO · R2 | Lui · Decision - Split R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle expects Sulangrangbo’s range striking to produce a second-round knockout over Lawrence Lui. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Elekana · Sub · R2 | Elekana · Sub R2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
TheWeasle picks Billy Elekana to win by second-round submission after taking the fight to the ground. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Finney · to win | Malkoun · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle picks Torrez Finney over Jacob Malkoun, without assigning a single named method. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 43.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 54.5%. Micallef · Dec | Micallef · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
TheWeasle picks Jonathan Micallef to win by decision over Oban Elliott. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 54.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.0%. Kim · Sub · R3 | Fan · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle picks SangWook Kim to win by third-round submission over Dom Mar Fan. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 54.5%. Szalay · Dec | Nakamura · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle favors Sebastian Szalay to edge Keiichiro Nakamura by decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 54.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Machado Garry vs Prates
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 78.6% 11 3
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prates · to win | Machado Garry · Decision - Unanimous R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Ian Machado Garry (winner only). | |||||
| Zhang · to win | Zhang · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Zhang Mingyang (winner only). | |||||
| Chikadze · to win | Onama · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: David Onama (winner only). | |||||
| Magomedov · to win | Magomedov · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Abusupiyan Magomedov (winner only). | |||||
| Brown · to win | Brown · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Randy Brown (winner only). | |||||
| Aliskerov · to win | Aliskerov · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Ikram Aliskerov (winner only). | |||||
| Schnell · to win | Schnell · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Matt Schnell (winner only). | |||||
| Elder · to win | Elder · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Evan Elder (winner only). | |||||
| Gutiérrez · to win | Gutiérrez · Decision - Split R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Chris Gutiérrez (winner only). | |||||
| Blackshear · to win | Blackshear · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Da'Mon Blackshear (winner only). | |||||
| Wellmaker · to win | Wellmaker · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Malcolm Wellmaker (winner only). | |||||
| Amorim · to win | Amorim · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Jacqueline Amorim (winner only). | |||||
| Romero · to win | Cuamba · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Roberto Romero (winner only). | |||||
| Edwards · to win | Edwards · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Joselyne Edwards (winner only). | |||||
Dern vs Ribas 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 64.3% 9 5
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kopylov · to win | Kopylov · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Roman Kopylov (winner only). | |||||
| Medić · to win | Soriano · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Uroš Medić (winner only). | |||||
| Moisés · to win | Moisés · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Thiago Moisés (winner only). | |||||
| Kareckaitė · to win | Kareckaitė · Decision - Split R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Ernesta Kareckaitė (winner only). | |||||
| Ribas · to win | Dern · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Amanda Ribas (winner only). | |||||
| Ponzinibbio · to win | Ponzinibbio · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Santiago Ponzinibbio (winner only). | |||||
| Almeida · to win | Almeida · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: César Almeida (winner only). | |||||
| Bashi · to win | Rodriguez · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Austin Bashi (winner only). | |||||
| Johnson · to win | Bunes · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Jose Johnson (winner only). | |||||
| Tulio · to win | Tulio · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Marco Tulio (winner only). | |||||
| Smith · to win | Smith · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Jacobe Smith (winner only). | |||||
| Gadzhiyasulov · to win | Lopes · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (winner only). | |||||
| Kline · to win | Kline · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Fatima Kline (winner only). | |||||
| Aliev · to win | Aliev · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Nurullo Aliev (winner only). | |||||
UFC 302
Makhachev vs. Poirier
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makhachev · to win | Makhachev · Submission (D'Arce choke) R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only). | |||||
UFC 300
Pereira vs. Hill
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliveira · to win | Tsarukyan · Decision (split) R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Charles Oliveira (winner only). | |||||
| Gaethje · to win | Holloway · KO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Justin Gaethje (winner only). | |||||
UFC 298
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 12
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maverick · to win | Maverick · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Miranda Maverick (winner only). | |||||
| Elliott · to win | Elliott · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Oban Elliott (winner only). | |||||
| Barlow · to win | Barlow · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Danny Barlow (winner only). | |||||
| Zhang · to win | Zhang · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Mingyang Zhang (winner only). | |||||
| Nakamura · to win | Nakamura · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Rinya Nakamura (winner only). | |||||
| Lima · to win | Lima · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Marcos Rogério de Lima (winner only). | |||||
| Lemos · to win | Lemos · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Amanda Lemos (winner only). | |||||
| Hernandez · to win | Hernandez · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Anthony Hernandez (winner only). | |||||
| Dvalishvili · to win | Dvalishvili · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Merab Dvalishvili (winner only). | |||||
| Machado Garry · to win | Machado Garry · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Ian Machado Garry (winner only). | |||||
| Whittaker · to win | Whittaker · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Robert Whittaker (winner only). | |||||
| Topuria · to win | Topuria · KO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Ilia Topuria (winner only). | |||||
UFC Fight Night 221
Yan vs. Dvalishvili
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan · to win | Dvalishvili · Decision - Unanimous R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Petr Yan (winner only). | |||||
UFC 284
Makhachev vs. Volkanovski
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makhachev · to win | Makhachev · Decision - Unanimous R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only). | |||||
UFC 280
Oliveira vs. Makhachev
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliveira · to win | Makhachev · Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Charles Oliveira (winner only). | |||||
UFC 254
Khabib vs. Gaethje
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurmagomedov · to win | Nurmagomedov · Technical Submission (triangle choke) R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov (winner only). | |||||
UFC Fight Night 149
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 3
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overeem · to win | Overeem · TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Alistair Overeem (winner only). | |||||
| Makhachev · to win | Makhachev · Decision (unanimous) R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only). | |||||
| Modafferi · to win | Modafferi · Decision (split) R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
TheWeasle transcript pick: Roxanne Modafferi (winner only). | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind TheWeasle's logged calls.






















