UFC Fight Night 221: Yan vs. Dvalishvili  11 Mar 2023 · The Theater at Virgin Hotels, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States, US

Merab Dvalishvili defeats Petr Yan by Decision - Unanimous

Win Merab Dvalishvili 16-4-0
Loss Petr Yan 16-5-0
Watch the fight
Decision - Unanimous

Round 5 · 5:00

Dvalishvili vs Yan · UFC Fight Night 221: Yan vs. Dvalishvili

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Dvalishvili set the terms immediately, forcing Yan to defend repeated entries and work back to the centre whenever the fight opened up. Yan's elbows and counterstrikes made the exchanges competitive, but the challenger kept returning to the legs and the fence.

The same pattern held through the championship rounds: Yan found clean moments when he created space, while Dvalishvili answered with another scramble, another clinch or another takedown attempt. The sustained activity left Yan needing a finish in the final round.

The judges — Mike Bell, Sal D'Amato and Junichiro Kamijo — each scored the fight 50-45 for Dvalishvili, who completed the five-round shutout by unanimous decision.

Judges' scorecards
  • Mike Bell50-45 Dvalishvili
  • Sal D'Amato50-45 Dvalishvili
  • Junichiro Kamijo50-45 Dvalishvili
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili's case was built on pressure, chain wrestling and an extraordinary willingness to keep asking the same question from every position. If he could keep Yan defending against the fence and make the fight a five-round pace test, his volume and persistence would decide the night.

Case for Yan

Yan's route was cleaner damage and disciplined counters. He needed to punish the entries with elbows, boxing and calf kicks, then make Dvalishvili pay every time the champion's pressure created a reset in open space.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Dvalishvili could convert his early takedown pressure into sustained control.
  • Yan's elbows and calf kicks whenever Dvalishvili separated from the fence.
  • How the pace and repeated wrestling exchanges changed the fight in the championship rounds.
Records & career stats
Dvalishvili vs Yan
Dvalishvili Yan
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.42 5.16
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 54% 60%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 2.8 4.24
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 76% 86%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 24% 40%
15-4-0
Record
16-4-0
Source pending
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
Source pending
Source pending
Nationality
Source pending
32
Age
30
66 in
Height — Yan leads
67.5 in
68 in
Reach — Dvalishvili leads
67 in
Source pending
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Source pending
24%
Finish rateFinish % — Yan leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
40%
3
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Yan leads
7
2
Wins by submissionSub wins — Dvalishvili leads
1
4.42
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Yan leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.16
2.8
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Dvalishvili leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.24
54%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Yan leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
60%
76%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Yan leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
86%
17:36
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
17:38

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (1)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 65:29

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Merab Dvalishvili · Decision - Unanimous

MMA Lock of the Night transcript pick: Petr Yan (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 11:11

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Merab Dvalishvili · Decision - Unanimous

TheWeasle transcript pick: Petr Yan (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 26:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Merab Dvalishvili · Decision - Unanimous

The MMA Guru transcript pick: Petr Yan (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)

Analyst picks: MMA Lock of the Night Miss; TheWeasle Miss; The MMA Guru Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
MMA Lock of the Night99 resolved calls
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 65:29

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Merab Dvalishvili · Decision - Unanimous

MMA Lock of the Night transcript pick: Petr Yan (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Yan · to winDvalishvili · Decision - Unanimous R5MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 11:11

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Merab Dvalishvili · Decision - Unanimous

TheWeasle transcript pick: Petr Yan (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Yan · to winDvalishvili · Decision - Unanimous R5MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 26:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Petr Yan

Fight result: Merab Dvalishvili · Decision - Unanimous

The MMA Guru transcript pick: Petr Yan (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Yan · to winDvalishvili · Decision - Unanimous R5MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

Only 0 of 3 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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