UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik  20 Apr 2019 · Yubileyny Sports Palace, Saint Petersburg, Russia, RU

Islam Makhachev defeats Arman Tsarukyan by Decision (unanimous)

Win Islam Makhachev 17-1-0
Loss Arman Tsarukyan 13-2-0
Decision (unanimous)

Round 3 · 5:00

Makhachev vs Tsarukyan · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Tsarukyan initiated the clinch and first takedown, then worked free after Makhachev answered with a foot sweep and mount.

Tsarukyan remained patient after working free and continued to go shot-for-shot with Makhachev in the opening exchanges.

Makhachev pulled away in the final round by pushing a relentless pace and swarming Tsarukyan to secure the decision.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Makhachev

Makhachev brings superior submission depth and a more seasoned UFC track record — five wins from six fights, including finishes over Tibau and Kajan Johnson. His ability to control position and threaten submissions from every angle should neutralise Tsarukyan's athleticism over three rounds.

Case for Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan arrives on a 14-fight unbeaten run with elite wrestling credentials for the weight class. A UFC debut removes any crowd-psychology disadvantage, and a partisan Russian crowd in Saint Petersburg could energise both men. His aggressiveness and output could disrupt Makhachev's patient, methodical game.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Tsarukyan can survive Makhachev's submission attempts — he is one of the few debut prospects with realistic physical tools to muscle out of them.
  • Who wins the wrestling scrambles: both fighters have elite takedown credentials and neither gives the mat up easily.
  • Whether Tsarukyan's gas tank holds in the championship rounds — Makhachev's pace tends to punish opponents late when they tire.
Records & career stats
Makhachev vs Tsarukyan
16-1-0
Record
13-1-0
8-0 last 8
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5-0 last 5
Russia
Nationality
Armenia
34
Age
29
1.78 m
Height — Makhachev leads
1.70 m
179 cm
Reach — Tsarukyan leads
184 cm
Southpaw
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
67%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
Source pending
5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
—
13
Wins by submissionSub wins — Makhachev leads
6
2.27
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Tsarukyan leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.78
1.42
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Makhachev leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
1.77
61%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Makhachev leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
55%
91%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Makhachev leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
75%
11:45
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
11:42
AKA (American Kickboxing Academy) San Jose
Team
Syndicate MMA - Las Vegas, NV

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight
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Before the fight (2)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 36:39

Current pick evidence

Picked: Islam Makhachev

Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Decision (unanimous)

MMA Lock of the Night transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 8:49

Current pick evidence

Picked: Islam Makhachev

Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Decision (unanimous)

TheWeasle transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 6:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Islam Makhachev

Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Decision (unanimous)

The MMA Guru transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 56:23

Current pick evidence

Picked: Islam Makhachev

Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Decision (unanimous)

MMAPREDICTIONGURU transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)

Analyst picks: MMA Lock of the Night Hit; TheWeasle Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
MMA Lock of the Night99 resolved calls
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 36:39

Current pick evidence

Picked: Islam Makhachev

Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Decision (unanimous)

MMA Lock of the Night transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Makhachev · to winMakhachev · Decision (unanimous) R3HitNot calledNot called
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 8:49

Current pick evidence

Picked: Islam Makhachev

Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Decision (unanimous)

TheWeasle transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Makhachev · to winMakhachev · Decision (unanimous) R3HitNot calledNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 6:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Islam Makhachev

Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Decision (unanimous)

The MMA Guru transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Makhachev · to winMakhachev · Decision (unanimous) R3HitNot calledNot called
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Hear it — 56:23

Current pick evidence

Picked: Islam Makhachev

Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Decision (unanimous)

MMAPREDICTIONGURU transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Makhachev · to winMakhachev · Decision (unanimous) R3HitNot calledNot called

4 of 4 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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