UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev  22 Oct 2022 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, AE

Islam Makhachev defeats Charles Oliveira by Submission (arm-triangle choke)

Win Islam Makhachev 23-1-0
Loss Charles Oliveira 33-9-1
Watch the fight
Submission (arm-triangle choke)

Round 2 · 3:16

Makhachev vs Oliveira — Lightweight Title · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Makhachev's first-round control limited Oliveira's attempts to create a submission scramble.

A right hand dropped Oliveira in round two and sent the fight to the mat.

Makhachev advanced to the arm-triangle choke, which ended the fight at 3:17 of the second round.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Makhachev

Makhachev's championship route was to survive Oliveira's front-foot submission danger, win the first wrestling exchanges and turn top control into a layered choke attack.

Case for Oliveira

Oliveira needed chaos: long-range pressure into clinches, opportunistic submissions and enough threat from every position to make Makhachev hesitate before settling into control.

What We Were Watching For

  • Who won the first serious grappling exchange.
  • Whether Oliveira could force Makhachev to defend submissions from top.
  • How quickly Makhachev advanced from control to the arm-triangle finish.
Records & career stats
Makhachev vs Oliveira
Makhachev Oliveira
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 2.27 3.23
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 61% 49%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 1.42 3.05
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 91% 55%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 67% 84%
22-1-0
Record
33-8-1
8-0 last 8
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3-2 last 5
Russia
Nationality
Brazil
34
Age
36
1.78 m
Height
1.78 m
179 cm
Reach — Oliveira leads
188 cm
Southpaw
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
67%
Finish rateFinish % — Oliveira leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
84%
5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Oliveira leads
10
13
Wins by submissionSub wins — Oliveira leads
22
2.27
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Oliveira leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.23
1.42
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Makhachev leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.05
61%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Makhachev leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
49%
91%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Makhachev leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
55%
11:45
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
07:58
AKA (American Kickboxing Academy) San Jose
Team
Bronx's Gold Team

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (2)

Comments

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 50:29

Current pick evidence

Picked: Islam Makhachev

Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Submission (arm-triangle choke)

MMA Lock of the Night transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 21:46

Current pick evidence

Picked: Charles Oliveira

Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Submission (arm-triangle choke)

TheWeasle transcript pick: Charles Oliveira (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 37:33

Current pick evidence

Picked: Charles Oliveira

Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Submission (arm-triangle choke)

The MMA Guru transcript pick: Charles Oliveira (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)

Analyst picks: MMA Lock of the Night Hit; TheWeasle Miss; The MMA Guru Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
MMA Lock of the Night99 resolved calls
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 50:29

Current pick evidence

Picked: Islam Makhachev

Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Submission (arm-triangle choke)

MMA Lock of the Night transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Makhachev · to winMakhachev · Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2HitNot calledNot called
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 21:46

Current pick evidence

Picked: Charles Oliveira

Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Submission (arm-triangle choke)

TheWeasle transcript pick: Charles Oliveira (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Oliveira · to winMakhachev · Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 37:33

Current pick evidence

Picked: Charles Oliveira

Fight result: Islam Makhachev · Submission (arm-triangle choke)

The MMA Guru transcript pick: Charles Oliveira (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Oliveira · to winMakhachev · Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

Only 1 of 3 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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