UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill  13 Apr 2024 · T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Max Holloway defeats Justin Gaethje by KO

Loss Justin Gaethje 25-5-0
Win Max Holloway 26-7-0
Watch the fight
KO · overhand right

Round 5 · 4:59

Gaethje vs Holloway — BMF Title · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Holloway used his long punches to pick at Gaethje early and landed the better shots through the first 15 minutes.

Gaethje found more success in the fourth, dropping Holloway and landing low kicks.

When the final 10-second signal sounded, Holloway invited Gaethje to trade and landed the right hand at 4:59 of round five.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Gaethje

Gaethje's route was the familiar power-and-leg-kick equation. If he could slow Holloway's movement and force pocket trades, the heavier single shots could make Holloway's volume too dangerous to sustain.

Case for Holloway

Holloway's case was pace, range and composure at lightweight. He needed to out-layer Gaethje without standing still for too long, then keep building damage into the later rounds where his durability and output usually separate him.

What We Were Watching For

  • Gaethje's leg kicks against Holloway's stance switches and footwork.
  • The spinning kick at the end of round one, which breaks Gaethje's nose and changes the physical terms.
  • Holloway's final-second decision to trade in the center instead of coasting to a decision.
Records & career stats
Gaethje vs Holloway
25-4-0
Record
25-7-0
4-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3-2 last 5
USA
Nationality
USA
37
Age
34
1.80 m
Height
1.80 m
178 cm
Reach — Gaethje leads
175 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
78%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
Source pending
21
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
—
1
Wins by submissionSub wins — Holloway leads
2
6.29
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Holloway leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.92
6.83
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Holloway leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.60
51%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Holloway leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
59%
73%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Holloway leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
81%
12:38
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
16:11
Genesis Training Center
Team
Hawaii Elite MMA - Hawaii

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight
Full FightSource unavailable Holloway vs Gaethje full fight Playback is not enabled until a verified source is available.
Before the fight (2)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

TheWeasle
Hear it — 37:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Justin Gaethje

Fight result: Max Holloway · KO

TheWeasle transcript pick: Justin Gaethje (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 21:22

Current pick evidence

Picked: Max Holloway

Fight result: Max Holloway · KO

MMA Lock of the Night transcript pick: Max Holloway (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 36:23

Current pick evidence

Picked: Max Holloway

Fight result: Max Holloway · KO

The MMA Guru transcript pick: Max Holloway (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)

Analyst picks: MMA Lock of the Night Hit; TheWeasle Miss; The MMA Guru Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
MMA Lock of the Night99 resolved calls
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 21:22

Current pick evidence

Picked: Max Holloway

Fight result: Max Holloway · KO

MMA Lock of the Night transcript pick: Max Holloway (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Holloway · to winHolloway · KO R5HitNot calledNot called
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 37:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Justin Gaethje

Fight result: Max Holloway · KO

TheWeasle transcript pick: Justin Gaethje (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Gaethje · to winHolloway · KO R5MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 36:23

Current pick evidence

Picked: Max Holloway

Fight result: Max Holloway · KO

The MMA Guru transcript pick: Max Holloway (winner only).

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Holloway · to winHolloway · KO R5HitNot calledNot called

2 of 3 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.