Michael Chiesa won season 15 of The Ultimate Fighter and competed in the UFC at lightweight and welterweight. He began working as a UFC broadcast analyst in 2018 and has also called fights for LFA.
Scorecard
Called 42 of 62 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner Accuracy 67.7% 42 20
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows: read where a line sits alongside its denominator. Winner covers every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss
42 of 62 — 68% now, from 100% at their first scored card. The first 1 point is drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
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Method
2 of 4 correct winners that named a method — too few to chart a trend.
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Underdog
14% 1 of 7 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Round — No round calls
Card by card
Newest card first. One mark per resolved call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- UFC 332 11 hit · 2 miss
- Crypto.com UFC 331 3 hit · 5 miss
- UFC 330 5 hit · 6 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 6 hit · 4 miss
- Medic vs. Rodriguez 6 hit · 1 miss
- Ankalaev vs. Guskov 10 hit · 2 miss
- UFC 329 1 hit · 0 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
UFC 332
Silva vs. Wang
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 84.6% 11 2
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hernandez · to win | Hernandez · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Chiesa considers Dos Anjos' two-year layoff a major disadvantage against Hernandez' speed, explosiveness and technical ability. He expects Hernandez to finish inside the distance. “I'm going with Alexander Hernandez.” | |||||
| Talbott · to win | Talbott · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Chiesa favors Talbott's short punches, framing jab and combinations that change angles and stances. He thinks Figueiredo needs to mix wrestling with striking and fight at a higher pace, but does not expect him to sustain the pace required to beat Talbott. “I am going with Payton Talbot” | |||||
| Kopylov · to win | Kopylov · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Chiesa favors Kopylov's fast southpaw kickboxing, body kicks and combinations. He thinks Kopylov can improve on the striking successes Pulyaev had against Gautier, while Gautier needs to cut off lateral movement rather than chase. “Roman Copilov is my pick and I'll tell you why right now.” | |||||
| Ribovics · to win | Ribovics · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Chiesa favors Ribovics' pressure, volume and combinations of punches and kicks. He wants Ribovics to attack Green's legs and keep exchanges in open space, rather than take the bait of pressuring Green against the fence. He expects a close fight and acknowledges that Green could win.
“I'm going with Estabbon Rivik, and I'll tell you why.” | |||||
| McGee · to win | Nolan · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Chiesa expects McGee to bring pressure and notes Nolan's struggles with wrestling. He sees Nolan as a less dangerous finishing threat than the opponents who previously stopped McGee, and does not see Nolan winning a decision. “I'm taking Court McGee over Eric Nolan.” | |||||
| Pinas · to win | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Chiesa thinks Pulyaev can make this a longer fight than Pinas usually encounters, but does not expect that to be enough to win. He sees Pulyaev needing to evade the power punches and find his left high kick, and favors Pinas. “I'm going with Damen Penos.” | |||||
| Rodriguez · to win | Rodriguez · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Chiesa identifies wrestling as the potential difference between two fighters with training partners who can emulate their opponent. He favors Rodriguez's wrestling while warning that Rodriguez must avoid rushing into Coria's powerful counters. “I'm going with INL Rodriguez.” | |||||
| Silva · Dec | Silva · Dec R5 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Chiesa favors Silva's speed, broader range of kicking weapons and stronger level of UFC opposition. He expects Silva to use combinations and movement to punish Wang's entries and predicts a fight that goes the distance. “Guys, I am going with Natalyia Silva.” | |||||
| Smith · to win | Smith · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Chiesa combines Smith's wrestling background with his knockout power as a dual threat. Drawing on training sessions he observed while coaching The Ultimate Fighter, he expects Smith to win convincingly. “I think Jacobe Smith goes out there, gets the job done, and makes it look easy.” | |||||
| Vettori · to win | Naurdiev · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Chiesa thinks Vettori is settling after training changes and injuries. He hopes to see Vettori return to the volume and output that helped him reach a title fight. “I'm going with Vtori in this one.” | |||||
| Walker · to win | Walker · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Chiesa likes Walker's move to heavyweight after his difficulties balancing the light-heavyweight weight cut with training. He considers Parkin a powerful but suitable test for Walker, while acknowledging Walker's past knockout losses. “I'm going with Johnny Walker.” | |||||
| Soldić · to win | Soldić · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Chiesa picks Soldic in a matchup he expects to revolve around landing powerful shots. He favors Soldic's ability to combine his left hand and left kick, while noting Williams can counter the kick-first combination or excessive pressure. “I am going with Roberto Soldich.” | |||||
| Wint · to win | Wint · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Chiesa favors Wint's athleticism and promise as a prospect. He argues that high-level football experience brings footwork, explosiveness and experience absorbing contact and continuing to compete. “Listen, I'm going with Anthony Wind.” | |||||
Crypto.com UFC 331
Van vs. Pantoja 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Gandra · to win | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Yoo · to win | Aswell Jr. · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Despaigne · to win | Despaigne · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Jourdain · to win | Vera · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Baraniewski · to win | Menifield · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.9%. Choi · to win | Pitbull · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.8%. Tsarukyan · to win | Tsarukyan · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Pantoja · to win | Van · Dec R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · to win | Wells · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Orolbai's wrestling against Wells's forward pressure and expects him to get his hand raised after a distance fight. “It's going to be Mechtobec Oral by getting his hand raised.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Brahimaj · to win | Magny · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Brahimaj's leg attacks, heavier shots and grappling against Magny. “I'm going with Ramse Brahimi.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Fernando · to win | Fernando · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Gives Fernando the edge in the matchup without a method call. “I got to give the edge to Lucas Fernando in this fight.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 50.5%. Luque · to win | Gore · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Sticks with his earlier Luque selection and records no method call. “I am going with Vicente Luke.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 50.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Johnson · to win | Johnson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors Johnson's power, confidence and reported improvements from camp. “I'm going with Dante Johnson.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 51.5%. Turner · to win | Turner · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Turner as a betting pick without committing to a method. “My next pick, I am taking Jaylen Turner over Fernandez. I think Jaylen Turner is over Fernandez. I think Jaylen Turner is a great bet at 60% of the bets right a great bet at 60% of the bets right now. I think he's got all the tools to now. I think he's got all the tools to get the job done. I think the reach get the job done. I think the reach advantage and how much how much” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 51.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to win | Njokuani · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Álvarez because he sees more paths to win and questions Njokuani's confidence after the prior loss. “I got to go with Joel Alvarez.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Ribovics · to win | Ribovics · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors Ribovics inside the distance, but does not specify a precise finishing method. “I'm taking Estabbon Ribeix to win. And I'm taking him to win inside the distance.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Abdul-Malik · to win | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Abdul-Malik but explicitly does not expect a finish. “I'm taking Abdul Malik.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 36.5%. Robertson · Dec | Dern · Dec R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Robertson's matchup and coaching edge, confidently calling a decision. “I am taking Jillian Robertson by decision. I think Jillian Robertson wins this fight.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 36.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Makhachev · to win | Makhachev · Dec R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors Makhachev without turning a possible submission into a method prediction. “Islam Makachev wins this fight.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 3
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Gamrot · Dec | Salkilld · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Gamrot by decision. “taking Mateusz Gamrot, I'm taking him by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · to win | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Goes with Ferreira without naming a method. “I'm going with Diego Fajita in this fight.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. del Valle · to win | del Valle · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Backs del Valle's judo and grappling base to outclass a declining Elkins, without naming a method. “his hand raised in this match up.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Miller · to win | Miller · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Goes with Miller without naming a method. “Definitely going to go with Ty Miller” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Lemos · to win | Thainara · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
A low-confidence value pick for Lemos, on the view that Thainara has not yet faced a comparably tested opponent. “I'm going with Amanda Amanda Lemos.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 29.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| No pick | Johns · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Explicitly declines to pick: "This fight just got made today... since I haven't done any research on Johnny Vasquez [Gianni Vazquez], it would be a disservice to you guys to even pick on this fight. So, I'm going to brush that one to the wayside." Notes his earlier pick of Miles Johns was for the since-replaced opponent (Rosas), not Vazquez. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · to win | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Sutherland while allowing that a fight between two big men can turn on one moment. “I'm taking Luis Sutherland” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Nurgozhay · to win | Nurgozhay · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Calls it close to a coin flip but leans Nurgozhay. “I'm taking Diar Nurgozhay” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · to win | Asplund · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Asplund without naming a method. “I definitely like Steven Asplin as well.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Miranda · to win | Sousa · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Miranda without naming a method. “definitely rolling with Richie Miranda on this one.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Foro · to win | Foro · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Foro over Canuto. “I'm taking Carol Forro.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 66.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 85.7% 6 1
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Medić · to win | Medić · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Called it a hard fight to pick and admitted a personal relationship with D-Rod, but went with Medic on explosiveness and fast starts, expecting him to bank big early rounds while conceding Rodriguez gets better the longer it goes. “with them. I help them prepare. But this isn't that type of situation. As isn't that type of situation. As contradictory as this is, I'm going with contradictory as this is, I'm going with Erceg Medić. I just I just think that Erceg Medić. I just I just think that the he's going to win big rounds early. the he's going to win big rounds early. Maybe even a 10-8. I don't know. It's Maybe even a 10-8. I don't know. It's hard fight for me to pick. hard fight for me to pick. But in this moment right ” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · Dec | Stirling · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picked Stirling because he does not think Blachowicz, carrying injuries and age, can find his rhythm if it is disrupted, and sees no plan B for him. Explicitly said he does not expect a finish. “We will see. Aljamain Sterling's a big boy, big young athletic guy from New boy, big young athletic guy from New Zealand with a lot of promise. Zealand with a lot of promise. Taking Aljamain Sterling. All right, Taking Aljamain Sterling. All right, guys, it is time for our main event. guys, it is time for our main event. It's time to get in the weeds and talk It's time to get in the weeds and talk about Uros Medic and Daniel Rodriguez. about Uros Medic and Daniel Rodriguez. And listen, guys, I a” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Rakić · to win | Rakić · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Likes the move to heavyweight for Rakic, who he says is oversized for 205 and will perform better without the cut, with a clear athleticism, speed and power edge over the 40-year-old Tybura. “Rakic. I think all signs point to him being a heavy favorite in this fight. being a heavy favorite in this fight. So, that's why I'm picking Aleksandar So, that's why I'm picking Aleksandar Rakic Rakic to win. I don't know how. I know I know to win. I don't know how. I know I know in a in full disclaimer, I know you guys in a in full disclaimer, I know you guys really want me to give you methods of really want me to give you methods of victory, but victory, but it's just it's it's too much at ti” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 26.5%. Urbina · to win | Urbina · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Has trained with Urbina and rates his length, teeps, oblique kicks and front-choke game, plus higher-level UFC experience, against Cepo's wild pressure brawling. “I think that there's going to be a finish and I think it's going to go to finish and I think it's going to go to the side of Gilbert Urbina. I'm I'm the side of Gilbert Urbina. I'm I'm taking Gilbert Urbina inside the taking Gilbert Urbina inside the distance. distance. Boom. All right, guys, time for the Boom. All right, guys, time for the second fight on the main card, but second fight on the main card, but before I do that, I better take a little before I do that, I better take a little fan b” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 26.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · to win | Oliveira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Named in the rapid-fire prelim run-through with no accompanying analysis, and repeated in his own recap of the prelim slate. “card, I'm taking Mark O. Madsen. And then in the welterweight tilt between then in the welterweight tilt between Oban Elliott and Michael Oliveira, I'm Oban Elliott and Michael Oliveira, I'm going with Oliveira. And in the featured going with Oliveira. And in the featured prelim, a great clash at 155 lb, I'm prelim, a great clash at 155 lb, I'm going with Ludovit Klein over Tofiq going with Ludovit Klein over Tofiq Musayev. So, one more time, guys, I'm Musayev. So, one more time, guys, I'm takin” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Klein · to win | Musayev · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Named in the rapid-fire prelim run-through with no accompanying analysis, and repeated in his own recap of the prelim slate. “Oban Elliott and Michael Oliveira, I'm going with Oliveira. And in the featured going with Oliveira. And in the featured prelim, a great clash at 155 lb, I'm prelim, a great clash at 155 lb, I'm going with Ludovit Klein over Tofiq going with Ludovit Klein over Tofiq Musayev. So, one more time, guys, I'm Musayev. So, one more time, guys, I'm taking Jovan Lecca, Nina Milosevic, taking Jovan Lecca, Nina Milosevic, Mateusz Rębecki, Bogdan Grad, Mark O. Mateusz Rębecki, Bogdan Grad, Mark O. Madsen, M” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Grad · to win | Grad · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Named in the rapid-fire prelim run-through with no accompanying analysis, and repeated in his own recap of the prelim slate. “Milosevic. After that, I'm going with Mateusz Rębecki. In the featherweight Mateusz Rębecki. In the featherweight bout on the prelims, I'm taking Bogdan bout on the prelims, I'm taking Bogdan Grad. In the bantamweight bout, the Grad. In the bantamweight bout, the biggest coin flip fight on the entire biggest coin flip fight on the entire card, I'm taking Mark O. Madsen. And card, I'm taking Mark O. Madsen. And then in the welterweight tilt between then in the welterweight tilt between Oban Ellio” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 83.3% 10 2
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Ankalaev · to win | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors Ankalaev's measured, well-rounded game and ability to work at range, in the clinch or on the mat against Guskov's short-notice challenge. “this fight to the mat, he can and he will. So for Uncle, I'm taking him by” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Temirov · to win | Temirov · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Calls it close but favors Temirov's explosiveness and more meaningful shots; he explicitly leaves finish versus decision open. “be what gives Steve Ursk problems. I I I have to side with Tamarov in this fight.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Patterson · to win | Patterson · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Patterson as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. “Axel Solah over Ishmael Bonfam. Next up, Sam Patterson versus Santiago Ponibio.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 80.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Kuniev · Dec | Kuniev · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Favors Kuniev's pocket combinations and knees against Fortune's wrestling entries, but does not expect Fortune to be stopped. “Kunv shines. So, in terms of my pick, I'm going with Rizvun and I'm taking him” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Dulatov vs Turman | Dulatov · KO/TKO | Upcoming | Dulatov | KO/TKO | Not called |
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Sola · to win | Sola · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Sola as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. “Bonfam. That's a great fight as well. I'm going with the Frenchman. Taking” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Walker · to win | Walker · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Walker as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. “not least, the leg reaper. Walter Valker versus Thomas Peterson. I am going with” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Tuchalov · to win | Tuchalov · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Tuchalov as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. “very skilled fighter. Next up, Magamemed Tucav over Brennesen Hero. Taking Tucav.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Zaynukov · to win | Zaynukov · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Expects Zaynukov's output and well-rounded camp experience to overwhelm Rzepecki and find a finish inside two rounds, without naming a specific method or round. “biggest difference maker in this fight. And I will go out on a limb and say Wild” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Davis · to win | Aliev · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Backs Davis as the more technically complete fighter if he stays mobile and keeps Aliev's grappling from dictating the bout. “underdogs. So, let's go with Mike Davis over Aaliyah at 33%. Now, this is a long” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 32.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.0%. Vagaev · Dec | Vagaev · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Favors Vagaev's deeper game and more reliable gas tank over Izagakhmaev after the latter faded in a previous long-layoff return. “a lot more than I trust in Isakmev. So in this matchup, I'm going with Abu” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Jacoby · to win | Saidov · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Names Jacoby as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. “I'm going with Sam Patterson. Next up, my boy Dustin Jacobe. Definitely taking” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 84.5%. Hussein · to win | Hussein · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Hussein as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. “right, guys. Let's start with our curtain jerker. I'm taking Abdul Hussein” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 84.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · to win | Holloway · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Michael Chiesa gives a transcript-verified UFC 329 main-event pick for Max Holloway. “I'm going with Max Holloway. It's just that simple.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 71.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Michael Chiesa's logged calls.