UFC veteran Michael Chiesa shares full-card UFC prediction breakdowns and betting picks on his channel.
Michael Chiesa on YouTube ↗Scorecard
Called 29 of 42 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner 29 13
-
Method
1 2 26 13
- Round rightCalls the winner, not the round
of 39 picks with a known pre-fight price
Hit Miss Never called Winner missed
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price.
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner 5 6
- Method rightNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round rightCalls the winner, not the round
of 11 picks with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAV Orolbai · to win | Wells · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Orolbai's wrestling against Wells's forward pressure and expects him to get his hand raised after a distance fight. | |||||
| FAV Brahimaj · to win | Magny · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Brahimaj's leg attacks, heavier shots and grappling against Magny. | |||||
| FAV Fernando · to win | Fernando · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Gives Fernando the edge in the matchup without a method call. | |||||
| FAV Luque · to win | Gore · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Sticks with his earlier Luque selection and records no method call. | |||||
| FAV Johnson · to win | Johnson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors Johnson's power, confidence and reported improvements from camp. | |||||
| FAV Turner · to win | Turner · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Turner as a betting pick without committing to a method. | |||||
| FAV Álvarez · to win | Njokuani · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Álvarez because he sees more paths to win and questions Njokuani's confidence after the prior loss. | |||||
| FAV Ribovics · to win | Ribovics · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors Ribovics inside the distance, but does not specify a precise finishing method. | |||||
| FAV Abdul-Malik · to win | Stoltzfus · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Abdul-Malik but explicitly does not expect a finish. | |||||
| DOG Robertson · Dec | Dern · Dec R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Robertson's matchup and coaching edge, confidently calling a decision. | |||||
| FAV Makhachev · to win | Makhachev · Dec R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors Makhachev without turning a possible submission into a method prediction. | |||||
UFC Fight Night
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner 7 4
- Method rightNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round rightCalls the winner, not the round
of 10 picks with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOG Gamrot · Dec | Salkilld · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Gamrot by decision. | |||||
| FAV Ferreira · to win | Ferreira · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Goes with Ferreira without naming a method. | |||||
| FAV del Valle · to win | del Valle · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Backs del Valle's judo and grappling base to outclass a declining Elkins, without naming a method. | |||||
| FAV Miller · to win | Miller · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Goes with Miller without naming a method. | |||||
| DOG Lemos · to win | Thainara · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
A low-confidence value pick for Lemos, on the view that Thainara has not yet faced a comparably tested opponent. | |||||
| No pick | Johns · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Explicitly declines to pick: "This fight just got made today... since I haven't done any research on Johnny Vasquez [Gianni Vazquez], it would be a disservice to you guys to even pick on this fight. So, I'm going to brush that one to the wayside." Notes his earlier pick of Miles Johns was for the since-replaced opponent (Rosas), not Vazquez. | |||||
| FAV Sutherland · to win | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Sutherland while allowing that a fight between two big men can turn on one moment. | |||||
| FAV Nurgozhay · to win | Nurgozhay · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Calls it close to a coin flip but leans Nurgozhay. | |||||
| FAV Asplund · to win | Asplund · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Asplund without naming a method. | |||||
| DOG Miranda · to win | Sousa · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Miranda without naming a method. | |||||
| Miller · to win | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Miller to finish inside the distance. | |||||
| FAV Foro · to win | Foro · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Foro over Canuto. | |||||
UFC Fight Night
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Event scorecard
- Winner 7 1
-
Method
1 6 1
- Round rightCalls the winner, not the round
of 8 picks with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAV Medić · to win | Medić · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Called it a hard fight to pick and admitted a personal relationship with D-Rod, but went with Medic on explosiveness and fast starts, expecting him to bank big early rounds while conceding Rodriguez gets better the longer it goes. “As contradictory as this is, I'm going with [Uroš] Medić. I just think that he's going to win big rounds early.” | |||||
| FAV Stirling · Dec | Stirling · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picked Stirling because he does not think Blachowicz, carrying injuries and age, can find his rhythm if it is disrupted, and sees no plan B for him. Explicitly said he does not expect a finish. “I don't think [Stirling] gets him out of there inside the distance. I think this fight does go 15 minutes.” | |||||
| FAV Rakić · to win | Rakić · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Likes the move to heavyweight for Rakic, who he says is oversized for 205 and will perform better without the cut, with a clear athleticism, speed and power edge over the 40-year-old Tybura. | |||||
| FAV Valentin · to win | Valentin · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Thinks Todorovic's habit of repeating the same jab while pressing makes him predictable and walks him into a counter, and that Valentin has the power and the fundamentals to punish it. | |||||
| DOG Urbina · to win | Urbina · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Has trained with Urbina and rates his length, teeps, oblique kicks and front-choke game, plus higher-level UFC experience, against Cepo's wild pressure brawling. “I'm taking Gilbert Urbina inside the distance.” | |||||
| FAV Oliveira · to win | Oliveira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Named in the rapid-fire prelim run-through with no accompanying analysis, and repeated in his own recap of the prelim slate. “In the welterweight tilt between Oban Elliott and Michael Oliveira, I'm going with Oliveira.” | |||||
| FAV Klein · to win | Musayev · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Named in the rapid-fire prelim run-through with no accompanying analysis, and repeated in his own recap of the prelim slate. “In the featured prelim, a great clash at 155 lb, I'm going with Ludovit Klein over Tofiq Musayev.” | |||||
| FAV Grad · to win | Grad · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Named in the rapid-fire prelim run-through with no accompanying analysis, and repeated in his own recap of the prelim slate. “In the featherweight bout on the prelims, I'm taking Bogdan Grad.” | |||||
UFC Fight Night
Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Event scorecard
- Winner 10 2
-
Method
1 1 8 2
- Round rightCalls the winner, not the round
of 10 picks with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAV Ankalaev · to win | Ankalaev · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favors Ankalaev's measured, well-rounded game and ability to work at range, in the clinch or on the mat against Guskov's short-notice challenge. | |||||
| Temirov · to win | Temirov · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Calls it close but favors Temirov's explosiveness and more meaningful shots; he explicitly leaves finish versus decision open. | |||||
| FAV Patterson · to win | Patterson · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Patterson as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. | |||||
| FAV Kuniev · Dec | Kuniev · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Favors Kuniev's pocket combinations and knees against Fortune's wrestling entries, but does not expect Fortune to be stopped. | |||||
| Dulatov vs Turman | Dulatov · KO/TKO | Upcoming | |||
| FAV Sola · to win | Sola · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Sola as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. | |||||
| FAV Walker · to win | Walker · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Walker as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. | |||||
| FAV Tuchalov · to win | Tuchalov · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Tuchalov as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. | |||||
| FAV Zaynukov · to win | Zaynukov · Dec | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Expects Zaynukov's output and well-rounded camp experience to overwhelm Rzepecki and find a finish inside two rounds, without naming a specific method or round. | |||||
| DOG Davis · to win | Aliev · Dec | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Backs Davis as the more technically complete fighter if he stays mobile and keeps Aliev's grappling from dictating the bout. | |||||
| FAV Vagaev · Dec | Vagaev · Dec | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Favors Vagaev's deeper game and more reliable gas tank over Izagakhmaev after the latter faded in a previous long-layoff return. | |||||
| Jacoby · to win | Saidov · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Names Jacoby as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. | |||||
| FAV Hussein · to win | Hussein · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Names Hussein as his preliminary-card pick without a method call. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Michael Chiesa's logged calls.