MMA Prediction Guru covers UFC picks, fight breakdowns and MMA betting. Its channel describes a mix of fight previews, fighter statistics, post-fight reactions and betting strategies.
Scorecard
Called 41 of 69 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
- Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
- Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
- Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows: read where a line sits alongside its denominator. Winner covers every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss
41 of 69 — 59% now, from 73% at their first scored card.
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Method
58% 15 of 26 correct winners that named a method
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Round
13% 1 of 8 correct winners that named a round
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Underdog
31% 4 of 13 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first. One mark per resolved call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Crypto.com UFC 331 7 hit · 5 miss
- Silva vs. Delgado 8 hit · 5 miss
- Nurmagomedov vs. Song 7 hit · 6 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 2 hit · 4 miss
- Medic vs. Rodriguez 5 hit · 3 miss
- UFC 329 1 hit · 0 miss
- UFC 328 3 hit · 2 miss
- UFC Fight Night 149 8 hit · 3 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Crypto.com UFC 331
Van vs. Pantoja 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 58.3% 7 5
- Method Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
- Round Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 78.5%. Brito · Dec | Brito · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
MMAPG transcript pick: Joanderson Brito by Decision. “Breo to win this fight via decision here.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 6:01
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| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. O'Neill · KO/TKO · R2 | O'Neill · Sub R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
MMAPG transcript pick: Casey O’Neill by KO/TKO in round 2. “I'm going to predict she'll win via TKO in round two in this fight.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 9:30
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| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Shahbazyan · Dec | Shahbazyan · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
MMAPG transcript pick: Edmen Shahbazyan by Decision. “I'll say Edmond Chbazian via decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 13:38
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| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Gandra · KO/TKO · R1 | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
MMAPG transcript pick: Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO in round 1. “I I I just got to go with Ryan Gandra here early. So, first round KO for Ryan Gandra is the prediction.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 15:02
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| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Yoo · Dec | Aswell Jr. · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMAPG transcript pick: Joosang Yoo by Decision. “I'm going to take Juang Yu to win via decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 3:14
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| Underdog call, market price 20.5%. Tuivasa · KO/TKO | Despaigne · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMAPG transcript pick: Tai Tuivasa by KO/TKO. “going to pick Tai. I'll say Tai to Evasia first round or second round KO TKO.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 20.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history.
Source unavailable — 18:35
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| Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Jourdain · Dec | Vera · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMAPG transcript pick: Charles Jourdain by Decision. “I'm going to go Charles Reineia decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 24:13
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| Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Menifield · KO/TKO | Menifield · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
MMAPG transcript pick: Alonzo Menifield by KO/TKO. “either way, I think that Alonzo is going to win first second round KO TKO here.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 29.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight.
Source unavailable — 28:54
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| Favourite call, market price 91.5%. Steveson · to win | Sharaf · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMAPG transcript pick: Gable Steveson by first-round finish. “He's going to take him down. He's going to smash him on the ground. So Gable first round finish.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 91.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 31:00
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| Favourite call, market price 69.9%. Choi · KO/TKO | Pitbull · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMAPG transcript pick: Dooho Choi by KO/TKO. “he he's going to maybe potentially knock Pit Bull out and I I am going to predict Sacramento KO for Doo Troy” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 35:43
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| Favourite call, market price 72.8%. Tsarukyan · Sub · R3 | Tsarukyan · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
MMAPG transcript pick: Arman Tsarukyan by Submission in round 3. “going to take Arman Shuken be a third round submission.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 39:32
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| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Van · KO/TKO · R4 | Van · Dec R5 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
MMAPG transcript pick: Joshua Van by KO/TKO in round 4. “I think Josh Van's going to become the first person to TKO Pantoia. I'll say round four.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 47:11
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Silva vs. Delgado
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 61.5% 8 5
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 28.5%. Aldrich · Dec | Tarin · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks JJ Aldrich by split decision. “I'm going to pick JJ Aldrich to win this fight via split decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 28.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history.
Source unavailable — 7:47
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| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. King · to win | King · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Sean King III to win. “I'm going to pick Sean King III.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 13:55
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| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rongzhu · to win | Rongzhu · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Rongzhu to win. “Give me Rongzhu here.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 17:53
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| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Gantt · Dec | Gantt · Sub R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Tommy Gantt by decision. “I'm going to predict Tommy Gantt to win by decision in this fight.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 25:55
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| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Belgaroui · KO/TKO · R3 | Belgaroui · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Picks Yousri Belgaroui by TKO in round 3. “I'm going to pick Belgaroui to win a third-round TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 28:31
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| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Bahamondes · KO/TKO | Bahamondes · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Picks Ignacio Bahamondes by knockout or TKO. “I'm going Ignacio Bahamondes by first- or second-round KO/TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 31:50
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| Underdog call, market price 35.5%. Elliott · Dec | Elliott · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Tim Elliott by decision. “I'm going to go with the veteran Tim Elliott.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 35.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history.
Source unavailable — 36:02
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| Favourite call, market price 78.5%. Martinez · to win | Martinez · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks David Martinez to win. “Martinez gets the job done.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 39:42
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| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Cortes Acosta · to win | Blaydes · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win. “I'm going to go with Waldo.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 42:31
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| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Fiorot · to win | Grasso · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Manon Fiorot to win. “I'm switching my pick to Manon.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 45:38
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| Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Rahiki · KO/TKO · R2 | McMillen · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Marwan Rahiki by knockout in round 2. “I'm going to go with round two KO/TKO for Marwan Rahiki.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 39.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history.
Source unavailable — 52:29
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| Morales · Dec | Moreno · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Joseph Morales by decision. “Going to pick Morales to win here via decision.”
Source unavailable — 56:24
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| Favourite call, market price 78.0%. Silva · to win | Silva · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Jean Silva to win. “Jean Silva in the main event is going to be the prediction for me.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit.
Source unavailable — 60:18
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Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 53.8% 7 6
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 5
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Asakura · KO/TKO | Asakura · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Kai Asakura by knockout. “Kai Asakura is going to get the knockout win here.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Lima · Sub | Lima · Sub R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Andre Lima by submission. “Give me Andre Lima via submission.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Liu · KO/TKO | Liu · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Liu Ce for a knockout, allowing either of the opening two rounds. “Liu Ce is going to get the knockout win, either round one or round two.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 85.5%. Hasan · to win | Hasan · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Bilal Hasan while leaving the final result between a late stoppage and decision unresolved. “So my prediction is going to be Bilal Hasan via decision, but Bilal Hasan either TKO late or dominant decision win.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 85.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Woodson · Dec | Woodson · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Sean Woodson by decision. “Sean Woodson by decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Xiong · Dec | Polastri · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Xiong Jingnan to win on the scorecards. “Jing Nan Jong picks up a decision victory.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 32.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Lui · Sub · R2 | Santiago · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Lawrence Lui by second-round rear-naked-choke submission. “Lawrence will win via submission, second-round rear choke victory.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Ding · Dec | Nelson · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Ding Meng's experience to carry him to a decision. “For my prediction, I'm going to take Ming Ding to win via decision here.” | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 82.5%. Nurmagomedov · Dec | Song · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Umar Nurmagomedov to dominate and win a decision. “I think that Umar has him beat in all levels and is going to win via decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 82.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Sumudaerji · to win | Sumudaerji · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Sumudaerji while leaving the exact result between decision and knockout unresolved. “Going to go Sumudaerji, either dominant decision or KO-TKO victory.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 66.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Tsuruya · Sub | Tsuruya · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Rei Tsuruya by submission, allowing either of the opening two rounds. “Rei Tsuruya for me in this fight to win via submission.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Xiao · to win | Nuzzi · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Xiao Long while leaving the choice between a late finish and decision unresolved. “I'm going to pick Long Xiao to win either by a late finish or decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 57.5%. Yan · to win | Gomes · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Yan Xiaonan to win at home. “I expect her to get the victory here. Yan Xiaonan getting the win.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 57.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 2
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 3
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Quarantillo · KO/TKO · R3 | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Goes to Quarantillo for a third-round stoppage. “as a pick, I'll go Billy Q. Round three, KO TKO.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 39.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 12.5%. Elkins · Dec | del Valle · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Goes against the grain, doubting del Valle's finishing equity and durability, and backs Elkins to win a decision. “So, give me Darren Elkins via decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 12.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Thainara · Dec | Thainara · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Calls a Thainara decision, either 30-27 or 29-28. “And I think Tinara will win a decision” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · to win | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Expects Sutherland to win. “And give me Southerntherland to win here.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · Dec | Asplund · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes Asplund on the scorecards. “But as a prediction, I'm going to go Steven Aspen via Decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Miranda · to win | Sousa · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Leans Miranda without a firm method. “gonna go with the underdog in the first fight of the night and pick Richie Miranda.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 5 3
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Medić · KO/TKO | Medić · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Says he would have picked Rodriguez if not for the prison layoff and the fight being in Serbia, but Medic's speed, front kicks and one-shot power tip it. Would not commit to a single round. “I just think he's going to be more ready. ready. And um And um going to go Errol's first, second round going to go Errol's first, second round KO in this fight. KO in this fight. And I'll actually say it will be with a And I'll actually say it will be with a head kick. head kick. So there you have it, guys. It's the So there you have it, guys. It's the full card breakdown and predictions for full card breakdown and predictions for UFC Fight Night Menace versus Rodriguez.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · Dec | Stirling · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Rates Blachowicz the better overall fighter but thinks he is slowing, keeps losing close calls with the judges, and that Stirling's range, leg kicks and clinch work win a competitive decision. “wrestling and clinch battle to get him tired and then win a decision in this tired and then win a decision in this fight. So, I see it being competitive fight. So, I see it being competitive once again, but I'm going to go with once again, but I'm going to go with Nalvo Sterling via decision. Nalvo Sterling via decision. And then last but not least, we got the And then last but not least, we got the main event, which is going to be a barn main event, which is going to be a barn burner with Earle” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Rakić · KO/TKO · R1 | Rakić · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Thinks Rakic has every base covered against an aging, fading Tybura — far faster at range, with no realistic takedown threat against him — and calls a quick blitz finish. “slick for Tybura, avoid getting dragged into a slow-paced clinch battle, and into a slow-paced clinch battle, and just win this fight. So, I'm going to just win this fight. So, I'm going to say he actually wins via first-round KO say he actually wins via first-round KO here. here. And co-main event time, we got Jan And co-main event time, we got Jan Błachowicz. He's coming back. He's Błachowicz. He's coming back. He's taking on Navajo Sterling. taking on Navajo Sterling. And um And um another fi” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Todorović · to win | Valentin · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Dismisses both records but gives Todorovic the wrestling edge, thinks he can nullify Valentin on the ground and win the cardio battle, with his takedown threat opening up the striking. “I expect that his wrestling could open up some striking and I just think he's up some striking and I just think he's the more well-rounded guy. the more well-rounded guy. So I'm going to go with Dusko Todorovic So I'm going to go with Dusko Todorovic here in this fight. here in this fight. And another really random fight here, And another really random fight here, Marcin Tybura Aleksandar Rakic. And both Marcin Tybura Aleksandar Rakic. And both these guys just trying to hang on for these guys ju” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Čepo · KO/TKO · R1 | Urbina · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Notes all 14 of Cepo's wins are finishes and says Urbina's defence and chin are not good enough to bang with him, leaving Urbina only an outside wrestling-based path. “I think the safe money is on Ceppo finding the chin, knocking out Urbina in finding the chin, knocking out Urbina in the first round. the first round. So, I'm going to go with Vlachos Ceppo So, I'm going to go with Vlachos Ceppo first round KO. first round KO. And another kind of janky fight here, And another kind of janky fight here, Dusko Todorovic and Robert Valentin. And Dusko Todorovic and Robert Valentin. And pretty shocking that these guys are both pretty shocking that these guys are both” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · KO/TKO · R2 | Oliveira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Grants Elliott heart, cardio and the only grappling path, but expects him to press forward and run into Oliveira's left hook from a much longer, more damaging striker. “feel like he's that likely to be able to strike for three rounds without getting strike for three rounds without getting clipped with that heat. So, give me clipped with that heat. So, give me Oliveira via round two KO/TKO. Oliveira via round two KO/TKO. And man, I mean, the good fights just And man, I mean, the good fights just keep on coming. I know a lot of people keep on coming. I know a lot of people [ __ ] on this card, but maybe I'm like a [ __ ] on this card, but mayb” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Klein · Dec | Musayev · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Openly calls it a 50/50 with little insight to offer, but leans Klein as the longer, younger, crisper striker who out-volumes Musayev over three rounds. “last his last fight, but I don't see that being a viable option here. that being a viable option here. And um And um I'm going to slightly lean with Klein I'm going to slightly lean with Klein via decision, but like you could tell, via decision, but like you could tell, don't really get a lot of don't really get a lot of great insight to give you guys in this great insight to give you guys in this one, and uh one, and uh just kind of think he's going to out just kind of think he's going to out v” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Grad · Dec | Grad · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Calls Buzukja more technical but Grad more explosive and powerful, says Grad looks hungrier and has had longer to recover from his knockout loss, with control time the difference. “because it's happened recently to both of them. So, it's a difficult fight to of them. So, it's a difficult fight to be super confident in, but I'm going to be super confident in, but I'm going to lean towards Bogdan Grad, and I'll say lean towards Bogdan Grad, and I'll say he actually wins via decision. he actually wins via decision. And we got a short notice match up once And we got a short notice match up once again here with Bogdan Grad, and or not again here with Bogdan Grad, and or not Bog” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · to win | Costa · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Costa inside the distance while respecting Durden's wrestling path. He argues Costa is sharper, should be able to defend enough takedowns, and can make Durden desperate before landing the damaging shot or club-and-sub sequence. “Costa inside the distance is the prediction for me in that fight.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 328
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 19.5%. Strickland · KO/TKO · R4 | Strickland · Dec R5 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Makes Strickland the value upset pick, arguing he has a clear striking edge, can punish Chimaev if the fight gets extended, and could finish late if Chimaev gets desperate. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 19.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Taira · Sub · R3 | Van · KO/TKO R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Taira by third-round submission, expecting the grappling and back-take threat to take over if Van cannot keep the fight at boxing range. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 37.5%. Brady · Dec | Brady · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Brady by decision after weighing Buckley's power, expecting Brady's grappling and control to be enough over three rounds. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 37.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ochoa · Dec | Ochoa · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Ochoa to keep the fight standing, use his length and dynamic striking, and land the better shots over three rounds. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 12.5%. Santos · Dec | Susurkaev · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Santos as a major upset by decision, arguing Susurkaev had underwhelmed as a heavy favorite and Santos could steal the hype if he handled the step up. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 12.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
UFC Fight Night 149
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 72.7% 8 3
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overeem · to win | Overeem · TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMAPREDICTIONGURU transcript pick: Alistair Overeem (winner only). | |||||
| Makhachev · to win | Makhachev · Decision (unanimous) R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMAPREDICTIONGURU transcript pick: Islam Makhachev (winner only). | |||||
| Pavlovich · to win | Pavlovich · KO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMAPREDICTIONGURU transcript pick: Sergei Pavlovich (winner only). | |||||
| Shevchenko · to win | Modafferi · Decision (split) R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMAPREDICTIONGURU transcript pick: Antonina Shevchenko (winner only). | |||||
| Jotko · to win | Jotko · Decision (unanimous) R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMAPREDICTIONGURU transcript pick: Krzysztof Jotko (winner only). | |||||
| Evloev · to win | Evloev · Decision (unanimous) R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMAPREDICTIONGURU transcript pick: Movsar Evloev (winner only). | |||||
| Aliev · to win | Aliev · Decision (unanimous) R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMAPREDICTIONGURU transcript pick: Sultan Aliev (winner only). | |||||
| Yakovlev · to win | Yakovlev · Submission (guillotine) R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMAPREDICTIONGURU transcript pick: Alexander Yakovlev (winner only). | |||||
| Tybura · to win | Abdurakhimov · TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMAPREDICTIONGURU transcript pick: Marcin Tybura (winner only). | |||||
| Oleksiejczuk · to win | Oleksiejczuk · KO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMAPREDICTIONGURU transcript pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk (winner only). | |||||
| Fiziev · to win | Mustafaev · TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMAPREDICTIONGURU transcript pick: Rafael Fiziev (winner only). | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)'s logged calls.
Watch all of MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)'s video picks in the library