Analyst study, June to October 2026. As of 10 October 2026
How accurate are MMA analysts?
Who would have paid off? $100 on every Bedtime MMA pick across 12 of the 14 cards in the study (June to October 2026) would have made +$2,046 on 100 picks (+20%). Backing the favourite in those same fights made +$123. Seven of the 40 analysts with at least 20 priced picks finished in profit, and Bedtime MMA is the top earner of those 40, so luck is not ruled out. Promising, not proven yet.
A record of past public picks, not betting advice. Picks are scored at prices stored before each card; it is not a forecast or a tip.
Different analysts, different strengths. Highest hit rate (50+ picks): MMA Lock of the Night, 73 of 99 (74%). Most money at real prices: Bedtime MMA, +$2,046 on 100 picks. Best at calling how fights end (50+ calls): Bedtime MMA 44%, TheWeasle 43%, AJ Devito 42%, against 37% for the average analyst. None of these is Proven yet; one is Promising.
Where analysts add value: calling how fights end. Across 251 fights with a known favourite, analysts got the winner and the method both right 37.1% of the time, against 29.9% for simply taking the favourite by KO/TKO, the best of three simple rules (gap +7.2 points, 95% range +1.3 to +13.2). That is against a simple rule, not against method betting odds, which are not stored.
On picking winners alone, none of the 26 analysts on the hit-rate board has yet shown they beat backing the favourite on the same fights (3 are ahead on the raw count, inside the range luck allows).
Nobody beats the market beyond luck yet. Closest: AJ Devito, +7.5 wins per 100 picks above what the market expected (121 picks).
The boards
Every money board opens with the Baseline rows: what you would have got without any analyst. Tables scroll sideways on a phone.
If you followed them: $100 on every pick
How much would $100 on each of this analyst’s picks have made or lost, at a price you could actually have bet?
- Window: 14 cards with a stored sportsbook price, 14 June 2026 to 3 October 2026 (137 fights).
- Price: the last sportsbook consensus captured before the card (at least 3 books); each pick is settled at the median book’s odds for the fighter it backed, bookmaker margin included. No individual book or price is shown.
- Who is listed: analysts with at least 20 priced picks on this board (40 of 210). A badge needs at least 50 picks.
- Sorted by: profit, high to low.
| Analyst | Record | Profit on $100 a pick | Return per $100 (ROI) | 95% range of ROI | Favourite on the same fights | Ahead of the favourite, per $100 (95% range) | Polymarket check | Cards | Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Back the favourite in every fight | 100 of 137 | +$94on 137 fights | +0.7% | -10.1% to +11.1% | not applicable | not applicable | not applicable | not applicable | Baseline |
| Back the underdog in every fight | 37 of 137 | -$1,653on 137 fights | -12.1% | -39.5% to +20.3% | not applicable | not applicable | not applicable | not applicable | Baseline |
| Average analyst210 analysts, each fight counted once | 2,924 picks on 137 fights | not applicable | -0.7% | -7.6% to +5.8% | not applicable | not applicable | not applicable | not applicable | Baseline |
| 1 Bedtime MMA | 76 of 100 | +$2,046on 100 picks | +20.5% | +3.9% to +36.8% | +$123 | +19.2-2.3 to +41.4 | +$2,392on 94 picks | 12 | Promising |
| 2 MMA Lock of the Night | 27 of 36 | +$678on 36 picks | +18.8% | -8.5% to +45.8% | -$99 | +21.6-10.3 to +56.0 | +$770on 35 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 3 James Blissett | 21 of 30 | +$337on 30 picks | +11.2% | -18.1% to +42.4% | -$50 | +12.9-20.1 to +52.0 | +$262on 22 picks | 8 | Too early to tell |
| 4 TheWeasle | 40 of 57 | +$204on 57 picks | +3.6% | -16.5% to +25.1% | -$42 | +4.3-16.0 to +28.0 | +$444on 53 picks | 8 | Too early to tell |
| 5 138 MMA | 19 of 28 | +$186on 28 picks | +6.6% | -23.5% to +39.4% | +$51 | +4.8-34.1 to +45.5 | +$266on 28 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 6 AJ Devito | 54 of 79 | +$176on 79 picks | +2.2% | -15.2% to +20.1% | +$314 | -1.8-21.4 to +18.1 | +$498on 77 picks | 10 | Too early to tell |
| 7 The MMA Guru | 66 of 96 | +$147on 96 picks | +1.5% | -13.9% to +16.4% | -$58 | +2.1-14.4 to +19.2 | +$473on 91 picks | 11 | Too early to tell |
| 8 Kunath | 16 of 25 | -$39on 25 picks | -1.6% | -34.6% to +34.0% | -$47 | +0.3-35.1 to +41.8 | -$34on 23 picks | 5 | Too early to tell |
| 9 Michael Bisping | 14 of 21 | -$91on 21 picks | -4.3% | -35.6% to +24.7% | +$32 | -5.9-17.6 to 0.0 | -$88on 19 picks | 5 | Too early to tell |
| 10 KennyOkoyeMMA | 27 of 39 | -$92on 39 picks | -2.3% | -24.9% to +19.1% | -$407 | +8.1-8.3 to +28.5 | +$36on 38 picks | 8 | Too early to tell |
| 11 HopperMMA | 58 of 86 | -$141on 86 picks | -1.6% | -17.3% to +14.1% | +$259 | -4.6-22.6 to +14.9 | +$95on 82 picks | 11 | Too early to tell |
| 12 MMA Husky Hustler | 19 of 30 | -$158on 30 picks | -5.3% | -33.7% to +24.6% | -$83 | -2.5-32.8 to +32.6 | -$41on 29 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 13 BetSam | 14 of 23 | -$200on 23 picks | -8.7% | -40.2% to +21.8% | +$72 | -11.8-42.3 to +18.7 | -$42on 22 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 14 Adam Martin | 16 of 26 | -$210on 26 picks | -8.1% | -39.1% to +23.2% | +$115 | -12.5-43.2 to +24.0 | +$162on 16 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 15 Pure Picks | 16 of 27 | -$244on 27 picks | -9.1% | -38.7% to +21.8% | -$116 | -4.8-33.1 to +26.7 | -$151on 27 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 16 James Lynch | 14 of 23 | -$311on 23 picks | -13.5% | -43.3% to +15.8% | -$326 | +0.7-23.9 to +25.8 | -$275on 21 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 17 Jon Litterine | 11 of 20 | -$338on 20 picks | -16.9% | -52.0% to +20.7% | -$5 | -16.6-55.7 to +27.5 | -$22on 11 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 18 MikesMMAPicks | 12 of 21 | -$344on 21 picks | -16.4% | -48.4% to +18.5% | -$112 | -11.0-47.4 to +26.2 | -$118on 12 picks | 2 | Too early to tell |
| 19 Fight Productions | 11 of 20 | -$401on 20 picks | -20.0% | -54.3% to +16.0% | -$42 | -17.9-56.7 to +23.5 | -$56on 10 picks | 5 | Too early to tell |
| 20 TonyHasDiedMMA | 12 of 22 | -$436on 22 picks | -19.8% | -51.7% to +13.5% | -$96 | -15.5-48.4 to +21.1 | -$419on 14 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 21 Lucas Tracy | 14 of 25 | -$463on 25 picks | -18.5% | -47.9% to +13.1% | +$192 | -26.2-60.5 to +8.8 | -$397on 25 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 22 Cole Shelton | 17 of 28 | -$466on 28 picks | -16.6% | -42.3% to +9.6% | +$22 | -17.4-39.7 to 0.0 | -$417on 18 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 23 Michael Chiesa | 32 of 50 | -$496on 50 picks | -9.9% | -30.6% to +11.1% | +$208 | -14.1-34.3 to +9.0 | -$326on 47 picks | 7 | Too early to tell |
| 24 We Want Picks | 69 of 104 | -$515on 104 picks | -4.9% | -19.1% to +9.6% | +$531 | -10.1-26.1 to +6.3 | -$22on 91 picks | 13 | Too early to tell |
| 25 DFS By The Numbers | 72 of 107 | -$517on 107 picks | -4.8% | -18.4% to +8.5% | +$258 | -7.2-19.6 to +5.2 | -$203on 95 picks | 12 | Too early to tell |
| 26 Half The Battle | 47 of 73 | -$557on 73 picks | -7.6% | -25.0% to +10.9% | -$172 | -5.3-22.2 to +13.6 | -$224on 71 picks | 9 | Too early to tell |
| 27 Jesse Holland | 12 of 24 | -$563on 24 picks | -23.4% | -54.7% to +7.9% | -$330 | -9.7-43.6 to +28.5 | -$514on 24 picks | 9 | Too early to tell |
| 28 Nick Kalikas | 10 of 21 | -$573on 21 picks | -27.3% | -60.7% to +6.7% | -$112 | -22.0-57.4 to +17.3 | -$223on 12 picks | 2 | Too early to tell |
| 29 MMA JOEY | 37 of 59 | -$612on 59 picks | -10.4% | -29.5% to +9.2% | -$432 | -3.1-21.1 to +16.1 | -$335on 55 picks | 10 | Too early to tell |
| 30 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) | 25 of 43 | -$630on 43 picks | -14.7% | -39.3% to +10.0% | -$211 | -9.8-33.7 to +16.8 | -$357on 42 picks | 6 | Too early to tell |
| 31 Chris Schweppe | 24 of 46 | -$669on 46 picks | -14.5% | -41.7% to +17.2% | -$34 | -13.8-45.7 to +23.6 | -$307on 36 picks | 5 | Too early to tell |
| 32 Greedo Plays MMA | 12 of 23 | -$691on 23 picks | -30.0% | -58.5% to -2.9% | -$76 | -26.7-53.1 to -6.0 | -$506on 13 picks | 8 | Too early to tell |
| 33 Andrew Richardson | 21 of 35 | -$693on 35 picks | -19.8% | -42.0% to +2.2% | -$264 | -12.3-28.1 to 0.0 | -$491on 34 picks | 10 | Too early to tell |
| 34 Rparqs | 8 of 20 | -$725on 20 picks | -36.3% | -71.6% to +5.1% | -$277 | -22.4-64.5 to +25.6 | -$403on 13 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 35 Bookie Beatdown | 13 of 26 | -$745on 26 picks | -28.6% | -56.8% to -1.6% | -$38 | -27.2-58.1 to +3.0 | -$715on 25 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 36 JakeGerberMMA | 59 of 90 | -$854on 90 picks | -9.5% | -24.1% to +4.8% | -$295 | -6.2-18.7 to +6.8 | -$693on 78 picks | 12 | Too early to tell |
| 37 Uselyis | 13 of 26 | -$865on 26 picks | -33.3% | -59.2% to -7.5% | -$93 | -29.7-56.3 to -6.3 | -$529on 19 picks | 5 | Too early to tell |
| 38 Chris White | 9 of 21 | -$915on 21 picks | -43.5% | -73.1% to -14.7% | -$112 | -38.2-69.2 to -14.1 | -$378on 12 picks | 2 | Too early to tell |
| 39 Artem MMA | 14 of 28 | -$958on 28 picks | -34.2% | -58.0% to -8.8% | +$11 | -34.6-60.2 to -11.8 | -$746on 18 picks | 5 | Too early to tell |
| 40 The MMA Yuda | 8 of 21 | -$1,052on 21 picks | -50.1% | -76.2% to -21.1% | -$271 | -37.2-67.7 to -13.6 | -$714on 11 picks | 5 | Too early to tell |
The average analyst row counts each fight once: on every fight, the average return of the analysts who picked it, then the average over fights. All 2,924 picks added together return -12.4%, because a few big upsets that most analysts missed weigh on every pick that missed them.
Strict check. 68 of the 137 fights are on the main card, or on a card that lists a separate main-card start, so their price is provably from before the fight. The other 69 are prelims on cards with one listed start time: their price was captured before the card began but cannot be shown to precede that particular fight. On those 68 fights alone, Bedtime MMA made +$1,453 on 54 picks and the favourite on the same fights +$544.
Favourite picks only
When this analyst backs the favourite, does choosing which favourites to back pay?
- Window: 14 cards with a stored sportsbook price, 14 June 2026 to 3 October 2026 (137 fights).
- Price: the last sportsbook consensus captured before the card (at least 3 books); each pick is settled at the median book’s odds for the fighter it backed, bookmaker margin included. No individual book or price is shown.
- Who is listed: analysts with at least 20 priced picks on this board (26 of 206). A badge needs at least 50 picks.
- Sorted by: profit, high to low.
| Analyst | Record | Profit on $100 a pick | Return per $100 (ROI) | 95% range of ROI | Polymarket check | Cards | Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Back the favourite in every fight | 100 of 137 | +$94on 137 fights | +0.7% | -10.1% to +11.1% | not applicable | not applicable | Baseline |
| Average analyst206 analysts, each fight counted once | 2,400 picks on 135 fights | not applicable | +1.4% | -9.4% to +11.7% | not applicable | not applicable | Baseline |
| 1 Bedtime MMA | 63 of 77 | +$872on 77 picks | +11.3% | -1.2% to +23.0% | +$1,131on 72 picks | 11 | Too early to tell |
| 2 AJ Devito | 48 of 61 | +$422on 61 picks | +6.9% | -8.3% to +21.5% | +$687on 59 picks | 10 | Too early to tell |
| 3 We Want Picks | 63 of 82 | +$272on 82 picks | +3.3% | -9.8% to +15.7% | +$549on 75 picks | 13 | Too early to tell |
| 4 MMA Lock of the Night | 22 of 28 | +$238on 28 picks | +8.5% | -15.4% to +29.4% | +$335on 28 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 5 The MMA Guru | 58 of 77 | +$227on 77 picks | +2.9% | -11.1% to +16.4% | +$448on 72 picks | 11 | Too early to tell |
| 6 HopperMMA | 52 of 68 | +$191on 68 picks | +2.8% | -11.7% to +16.4% | +$419on 65 picks | 11 | Too early to tell |
| 7 James Blissett | 18 of 24 | +$97on 24 picks | +4.1% | -22.2% to +27.5% | +$47on 18 picks | 8 | Too early to tell |
| 8 138 MMA | 16 of 21 | +$91on 21 picks | +4.4% | -25.3% to +29.6% | +$158on 21 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 9 DFS By The Numbers | 68 of 93 | +$27on 93 picks | +0.3% | -12.6% to +13.1% | +$322on 83 picks | 12 | Too early to tell |
| 10 Michael Bisping | 14 of 20 | +$9on 20 picks | +0.5% | -31.1% to +30.5% | +$12on 18 picks | 5 | Too early to tell |
| 11 TheWeasle | 37 of 50 | -$7on 50 picks | -0.1% | -18.2% to +16.7% | +$152on 46 picks | 8 | Too early to tell |
| 12 Adam Martin | 15 of 21 | -$26on 21 picks | -1.2% | -29.3% to +24.7% | +$29on 14 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 13 Michael Chiesa | 31 of 42 | -$76on 42 picks | -1.8% | -20.6% to +15.3% | +$97on 39 picks | 7 | Too early to tell |
| 14 Pure Picks | 14 of 21 | -$82on 21 picks | -3.9% | -34.7% to +26.1% | -$1on 21 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 15 MMA Husky Hustler | 17 of 24 | -$88on 24 picks | -3.6% | -30.3% to +21.9% | -$27on 23 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 16 Cole Shelton | 17 of 25 | -$166on 25 picks | -6.6% | -32.7% to +18.5% | -$217on 16 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 17 KennyOkoyeMMA | 25 of 36 | -$268on 36 picks | -7.4% | -28.7% to +12.5% | -$191on 35 picks | 8 | Too early to tell |
| 18 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) | 23 of 34 | -$293on 34 picks | -8.6% | -30.9% to +12.2% | -$90on 33 picks | 6 | Too early to tell |
| 19 James Lynch | 13 of 21 | -$309on 21 picks | -14.7% | -44.6% to +14.0% | -$290on 19 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 20 Chris Schweppe | 21 of 32 | -$316on 32 picks | -9.9% | -33.1% to +12.6% | -$329on 24 picks | 5 | Too early to tell |
| 21 Half The Battle | 44 of 62 | -$321on 62 picks | -5.2% | -20.8% to +10.3% | -$70on 60 picks | 9 | Too early to tell |
| 22 Artem MMA | 14 of 22 | -$358on 22 picks | -16.3% | -43.8% to +10.1% | -$346on 14 picks | 5 | Too early to tell |
| 23 Uselyis | 13 of 21 | -$365on 21 picks | -17.4% | -45.6% to +10.3% | -$229on 16 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 24 Andrew Richardson | 21 of 32 | -$393on 32 picks | -12.3% | -34.6% to +9.4% | -$191on 31 picks | 10 | Too early to tell |
| 25 MMA JOEY | 34 of 50 | -$417on 50 picks | -8.3% | -26.4% to +9.5% | -$179on 48 picks | 9 | Too early to tell |
| 26 JakeGerberMMA | 56 of 79 | -$431on 79 picks | -5.4% | -19.7% to +8.1% | -$316on 69 picks | 12 | Too early to tell |
The average analyst row counts each fight once: on every fight, the average return of the analysts who picked it, then the average over fights. All 2,400 picks added together return -10.8%, because a few big upsets that most analysts missed weigh on every pick that missed them.
No favourite-on-the-same-fights column here: on these picks the analyst is already on the favourite.
Underdog picks only
When this analyst backs the underdog, do the upsets pay for the misses?
- Window: 14 cards with a stored sportsbook price, 14 June 2026 to 3 October 2026 (137 fights).
- Price: the last sportsbook consensus captured before the card (at least 3 books); each pick is settled at the median book’s odds for the fighter it backed, bookmaker margin included. No individual book or price is shown.
- Who is listed: analysts with at least 10 priced picks on this board (9 of 151). A badge needs at least 50 picks.
- Sorted by: profit, high to low.
| Analyst | Record | Profit on $100 a pick | Return per $100 (ROI) | 95% range of ROI | Favourite on the same fights | Ahead of the favourite, per $100 (95% range) | Polymarket check | Cards | Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Back the favourite in every fight | 100 of 137 | +$94on 137 fights | +0.7% | -10.1% to +11.1% | not applicable | not applicable | not applicable | not applicable | Baseline |
| Back the underdog in every fight | 37 of 137 | -$1,653on 137 fights | -12.1% | -39.5% to +20.3% | not applicable | not applicable | not applicable | not applicable | Baseline |
| Average analyst151 analysts, each fight counted once | 524 picks on 95 fights | not applicable | +1.2% | -33.0% to +41.4% | not applicable | not applicable | not applicable | not applicable | Baseline |
| 1 Bedtime MMA | 13 of 23 | +$1,174on 23 picks | +51.0% | -6.3% to +108.2% | -$749 | +83.6-5.3 to +171.4 | +$1,262on 22 picks | 10 | Too early to tell |
| 2 The MMA Guru | 8 of 19 | -$79on 19 picks | -4.2% | -54.1% to +48.4% | -$284 | +10.8-68.8 to +95.5 | +$26on 19 picks | 10 | Too early to tell |
| 3 Half The Battle | 3 of 11 | -$236on 11 picks | -21.5% | -100.0% to +64.9% | +$150 | -35.0-153.3 to +95.7 | -$153on 11 picks | 7 | Too early to tell |
| 4 AJ Devito | 6 of 18 | -$246on 18 picks | -13.7% | -67.3% to +46.6% | -$108 | -7.7-93.8 to +82.6 | -$189on 18 picks | 7 | Too early to tell |
| 5 HopperMMA | 6 of 18 | -$332on 18 picks | -18.4% | -67.4% to +37.9% | +$68 | -22.2-106.1 to +67.4 | -$325on 17 picks | 8 | Too early to tell |
| 6 Chris Schweppe | 3 of 14 | -$353on 14 picks | -25.2% | -100.0% to +72.5% | +$282 | -45.3-149.2 to +81.2 | +$22on 12 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 7 JakeGerberMMA | 3 of 11 | -$423on 11 picks | -38.5% | -100.0% to +26.2% | +$136 | -50.8-149.6 to +56.8 | -$377on 9 picks | 8 | Too early to tell |
| 8 DFS By The Numbers | 4 of 14 | -$543on 14 picks | -38.8% | -84.7% to +10.4% | +$232 | -55.4-138.3 to +30.3 | -$525on 12 picks | 10 | Too early to tell |
| 9 We Want Picks | 6 of 22 | -$787on 22 picks | -35.8% | -78.0% to +9.7% | +$259 | -47.5-117.4 to +30.0 | -$571on 16 picks | 9 | Too early to tell |
The average analyst row counts each fight once: on every fight, the average return of the analysts who picked it, then the average over fights. All 524 picks added together return -19.9%, because a few big upsets that most analysts missed weigh on every pick that missed them.
Who picks the most winners
How often is this analyst right, and how does that compare with backing the favourite in the same fights?
- Window: every resolved pick from 224 analysts on 54 cards, 20 April 2019 to 10 October 2026.
- Favourite: named by the sportsbook consensus where one qualifies (137 fights), otherwise by the reconstructed Polymarket price (133 fights). Only who was favoured is used here, never a price.
- Who is listed: analysts with at least 50 resolved picks (26). A badge rests on the same-fights comparison and needs at least 50 of those fights.
- Sorted by: hit rate, high to low.
| Analyst | Record | Hit rate | Same fights with odds: analyst vs favourite | Ahead of the favourite, points (95% range) | Upset calls landed | Cards | Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Back the favourite in every fight | 192 of 270 fights with odds | 71.1% | not applicable | – | not applicable | not applicable | Baseline |
| Average analysteach fight counted once, same fights | 270 fights | 65.2% | not applicable | – | not applicable | not applicable | Baseline |
| All picks, all analysts | 3,250 of 5,521 picks | 58.9% | not applicable | – | not applicable | not applicable | Baseline |
| 1 MMA Lock of the Night | 73 of 99 picks | 73.7% | 33 vs 32of 48 fights | -12.5 to +16.7 | 7 of 13 | 18 | Too early to tell |
| 2 Bedtime MMA | 121 of 171 picks | 70.8% | 100 vs 102of 146 fights | -8.9 to +6.2 | 16 of 34 | 18 | Too early to tell |
| 3 TheWeasle | 115 of 163 picks | 70.6% | 68 vs 68of 101 fights | -7.9 to +7.9 | 9 of 18 | 23 | Too early to tell |
| 4 AJ Devito | 165 of 237 picks | 69.6% | 88 vs 93of 123 fights | -12.2 to +4.1 | 11 of 27 | 27 | Too early to tell |
| 5 Lucas Tracy | 36 of 53 picks | 67.9% | 25 vs 29of 42 fights | -26.2 to +7.1 | 5 of 14 | 8 | Too early to tell |
| 6 Michael Chiesa | 42 of 62 picks | 67.7% | 32 vs 38of 50 fights | -24.0 to -2.0 | 1 of 8 | 7 | Behind so far |
| 7 MMA JOEY | 71 of 107 picks | 66.4% | 56 vs 61of 91 fights | -14.3 to +3.3 | 6 of 17 | 15 | Too early to tell |
| 8 The MMA Guru | 203 of 308 picks | 65.9% | 100 vs 104of 149 fights | -10.1 to +5.4 | 16 of 36 | 45 | Too early to tell |
| 9 Drake Burden | 56 of 85 picks | 65.9% | 41 vs 42of 62 fights | -12.9 to +8.1 | 5 of 11 | 16 | Too early to tell |
| 10 KennyOkoyeMMA | 42 of 64 picks | 65.6% | 42 vs 40of 64 fights | -6.3 to +12.5 | 6 of 10 | 11 | Too early to tell |
| 11 JakeGerberMMA | 83 of 127 picks | 65.4% | 72 vs 78of 112 fights | -12.5 to +0.9 | 4 of 14 | 14 | Too early to tell |
| 12 James Blissett | 35 of 54 picks | 64.8% | 34 vs 33of 51 fights | -11.8 to +15.7 | 6 of 11 | 11 | Too early to tell |
| 13 DFS By The Numbers | 94 of 146 picks | 64.4% | 92 vs 99of 141 fights | -11.3 to +0.7 | 6 of 19 | 17 | Too early to tell |
| 14 We Want Picks | 93 of 145 picks | 64.1% | 90 vs 102of 140 fights | -16.4 to 0.0 | 11 of 34 | 17 | Too early to tell |
| 15 HopperMMA | 77 of 121 picks | 63.6% | 71 vs 81of 112 fights | -17.0 to -0.9 | 6 of 22 | 15 | Behind so far |
| 16 Jake Letarski | 40 of 64 picks | 62.5% | 26 vs 30of 44 fights | -22.7 to +4.5 | 3 of 10 | 14 | Too early to tell |
| 17 Artem MMA | 43 of 71 picks | 60.6% | 31 vs 39of 56 fights | -26.8 to -3.6 | 2 of 12 | 9 | Behind so far |
| 18 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) | 41 of 69 picks | 59.4% | 33 vs 38of 57 fights | -21.1 to +3.5 | 4 of 13 | 8 | Too early to tell |
| 19 Andrew Richardson | 34 of 58 picks | 58.6% | 34 vs 39of 56 fights | -17.9 to 0.0 | 1 of 7 | 14 | Too early to tell |
| 20 Half The Battle | 55 of 98 picks | 56.1% | 55 vs 67of 97 fights | -21.6 to -3.1 | 5 of 22 | 11 | Behind so far |
| 21 Jon Litterine | 54 of 97 picks | 55.7% | 31 vs 43of 64 fights | -31.3 to -6.3 | 4 of 20 | 17 | Behind so far |
| 22 Joe SunTszu | 34 of 64 picks | 53.1% | 21 vs 30of 44 fights | -36.4 to -4.5 | 3 of 15 | 14 | Too early to tell |
| 23 Cole Shelton | 52 of 99 picks | 52.5% | 37 vs 49of 72 fights | -27.8 to -6.9 | 2 of 16 | 17 | Behind so far |
| 24 Chris Schweppe | 36 of 72 picks | 50.0% | 30 vs 40of 59 fights | -32.2 to -3.4 | 5 of 20 | 6 | Behind so far |
| 25 Jesse Holland | 27 of 55 picks | 49.1% | 27 vs 35of 54 fights | -29.6 to 0.0 | 5 of 18 | 17 | Too early to tell |
| 26 Chris Olson | 31 of 70 picks | 44.3% | 23 vs 32of 50 fights | -34.0 to -2.0 | 5 of 19 | 15 | Behind so far |
Backing the favourite every time picks the most winners. Analysts give up some hit rate to call upsets, which is where any profit has to come from, so read this board next to the money boards.
Who calls how fights end
When this analyst names the method, how often are the winner and the method both right?
- Window: 2,517 picks that named a method, from 143 analysts on 341 fights. Methods are grouped as KO/TKO, submission and decision; 7 picks on fights that ended another way (such as a disqualification) are left out.
- Who is listed: analysts with at least 20 method calls (32). A badge rests on the comparison with other analysts on the same fights and needs at least 50 of those fights.
- No money column: no method betting odds are stored, so this board compares analysts with each other and with simple rules, not with a market.
| Analyst | Winner and method right | Rate | Winner right | Finish calls landed | Ahead of other analysts on the same fights, points (95% range) | Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average analysteach fight counted once | 341 fights | 36.9% | not applicable | not applicable | – | Baseline |
| Favourite by KO/TKO | 75 of 251 fights | 29.9% | not applicable | not applicable | – | Baseline |
| Favourite by submission | 41 of 251 fights | 16.3% | not applicable | not applicable | – | Baseline |
| Favourite by decision | 62 of 251 fights | 24.7% | not applicable | not applicable | – | Baseline |
| 1 Bedtime MMA | 56 of 127 picks | 44.1% | 70.1% | 32 of 61 | -4.4 to +12.1 | Too early to tell |
| 2 TheWeasle | 47 of 109 picks | 43.1% | 69.7% | 32 of 72 | -2.9 to +13.0 | Too early to tell |
| 3 AJ Devito | 59 of 139 picks | 42.4% | 72.7% | 37 of 83 | -10.0 to +7.7 | Too early to tell |
| 4 HopperMMA | 42 of 100 picks | 42.0% | 65.0% | 25 of 50 | -5.8 to +11.0 | Too early to tell |
| 5 Fight Productions | 17 of 41 picks | 41.5% | 56.1% | 13 of 29 | -3.5 to +23.1 | Too early to tell |
| 6 Andrew Richardson | 24 of 58 picks | 41.4% | 58.6% | 12 of 22 | -5.7 to +14.8 | Too early to tell |
| 7 MMA Lock of the Night | 17 of 42 picks | 40.5% | 73.8% | 12 of 29 | -6.6 to +18.0 | Too early to tell |
| 8 KingofCrackdown5095 | 12 of 30 picks | 40.0% | 66.7% | 9 of 17 | -9.4 to +13.7 | Too early to tell |
| 9 Brian Campbell | 12 of 30 picks | 40.0% | 60.0% | 7 of 22 | +0.7 to +28.9 | Too early to tell |
| 10 Artem MMA | 23 of 60 picks | 38.3% | 60.0% | 16 of 37 | -2.0 to +15.6 | Too early to tell |
| 11 JakeGerberMMA | 29 of 76 picks | 38.2% | 63.2% | 23 of 38 | -6.8 to +7.9 | Too early to tell |
| 12 DFS By The Numbers | 48 of 127 picks | 37.8% | 64.6% | 28 of 68 | -7.4 to +6.2 | Too early to tell |
| 13 Half The Battle | 10 of 27 picks | 37.0% | 51.9% | 7 of 19 | -27.0 to +3.9 | Too early to tell |
| 14 Lucas Tracy | 10 of 27 picks | 37.0% | 59.3% | 10 of 22 | -13.8 to +15.2 | Too early to tell |
| 15 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) | 15 of 43 picks | 34.9% | 60.5% | 8 of 22 | -10.6 to +11.6 | Too early to tell |
| 16 The MMA Guru | 57 of 165 picks | 34.5% | 65.5% | 44 of 121 | -8.0 to +7.7 | Too early to tell |
| 17 Greedo Plays MMA | 12 of 36 picks | 33.3% | 50.0% | 8 of 22 | -13.7 to +12.2 | Too early to tell |
| 18 Mike Finch | 10 of 30 picks | 33.3% | 53.3% | 6 of 20 | -2.2 to +19.9 | Too early to tell |
| 19 Kunath | 10 of 30 picks | 33.3% | 63.3% | 6 of 21 | -16.5 to +11.0 | Too early to tell |
| 20 James Blissett | 17 of 53 picks | 32.1% | 66.0% | 11 of 30 | -5.4 to +14.0 | Too early to tell |
| 21 Walk The Line MMA | 8 of 26 picks | 30.8% | 53.8% | 7 of 17 | -13.1 to +12.4 | Too early to tell |
| 22 MMA JOEY | 24 of 85 picks | 28.2% | 61.2% | 15 of 48 | -11.7 to +4.6 | Too early to tell |
| 23 Shakiel Mahjouri | 9 of 32 picks | 28.1% | 50.0% | 5 of 18 | -10.4 to +16.3 | Too early to tell |
| 24 James Lynch | 8 of 29 picks | 27.6% | 62.1% | 5 of 9 | -23.1 to +4.4 | Too early to tell |
| 25 Jesse Holland | 15 of 55 picks | 27.3% | 49.1% | 9 of 34 | -12.6 to +9.2 | Too early to tell |
| 26 Chris Schweppe | 19 of 71 picks | 26.8% | 50.7% | 14 of 42 | -15.8 to +2.6 | Too early to tell |
| 27 Michael Mormile | 6 of 25 picks | 24.0% | 40.0% | 3 of 14 | -15.2 to +15.5 | Too early to tell |
| 28 TonyHasDiedMMA | 5 of 21 picks | 23.8% | 52.4% | 3 of 14 | -15.1 to +18.7 | Too early to tell |
| 29 MMA Husky Hustler | 6 of 28 picks | 21.4% | 64.3% | 4 of 17 | -25.3 to -4.5 | Too early to tell |
| 30 Uselyis | 5 of 24 picks | 20.8% | 50.0% | 4 of 16 | -16.7 to +0.9 | Too early to tell |
| 31 Brent Brookhouse | 6 of 30 picks | 20.0% | 60.0% | 2 of 16 | -20.4 to +7.1 | Too early to tell |
| 32 Brandon Wise | 5 of 30 picks | 16.7% | 43.3% | 3 of 15 | -25.9 to +5.3 | Too early to tell |
Beat the market?
Does this analyst win more often than the betting market expected for the fighters they picked?
Nobody beats the market beyond luck yet. Closest: AJ Devito, +7.5 wins per 100 picks above what the market expected (121 picks).
- Measure: for each pick, the market’s chance that the picked fighter wins, with the market’s margin removed, is what the market expected. Wins minus that, per 100 picks. Zero means exactly what the market expected.
- Price: the reconstructed Polymarket price for each fight, taken a set time before that fight’s own market resolved (ADR-0036 §5): 253 fights on 23 cards, 15 November 2025 to 10 October 2026. The sportsbook consensus is a separate cross-check column, never added in. No price is shown.
- Who is listed: analysts with at least 20 Polymarket-priced picks (64 of 217). A badge needs at least 50 picks; Promising here also needs the sportsbook cross-check above zero over at least 20 picks.
- Sorted by: wins above expected, high to low. Select a column heading to sort by it; the group rows stay on top.
| Analyst | Record | Market expected | Wins above expected, per 100 picks | 95% range | Sportsbook cross-check, per 100 picks | Cards | Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All analystseach fight counted once | 4,203 picks on 253 fights | 2,676.2 wins | +1.4 | -2.6 to +5.1 | not applicable | not applicable | Baseline |
| All picks added together217 analysts | 2,386 of 4,203 picks | 2,676.2 wins | -6.9 | – | not applicable | not applicable | Baseline |
| 1 AJ Devito | 87 of 121 picks | 78.0 wins | +7.5 | -0.5 to +14.8 | +5.2on 79 picks | 14 | Too early to tell |
| 2 MMA Lock of the Night | 32 of 47 picks | 29.3 wins | +5.7 | -7.7 to +18.4 | +11.3on 36 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 3 Drake Burden | 36 of 54 picks | 33.5 wins | +4.6 | -8.8 to +17.2 | -8.2on 19 picks | 10 | Too early to tell |
| 4 Bedtime MMA | 95 of 140 picks | 88.8 wins | +4.4 | -3.1 to +12.1 | +12.3on 100 picks | 16 | Too early to tell |
| 5 The MMA Guru | 96 of 144 picks | 90.7 wins | +3.7 | -4.2 to +11.0 | +4.3on 96 picks | 16 | Too early to tell |
| 6 KingofCrackdown5095 | 16 of 24 picks | 15.3 wins | +2.9 | -19.3 to +23.2 | -0.9on 18 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 7 138 MMA | 25 of 39 picks | 23.9 wins | +2.8 | -13.0 to +17.5 | +4.2on 28 picks | 5 | Too early to tell |
| 8 James Blissett | 28 of 43 picks | 26.9 wins | +2.6 | -12.8 to +17.4 | +6.1on 30 picks | 10 | Too early to tell |
| 9 TheWeasle | 65 of 97 picks | 62.7 wins | +2.4 | -6.9 to +11.6 | +3.1on 57 picks | 12 | Too early to tell |
| 10 Adam Martin | 18 of 27 picks | 17.6 wins | +1.5 | -18.0 to +20.1 | -2.7on 26 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 11 BetSam | 16 of 25 picks | 15.7 wins | +1.1 | -17.1 to +18.9 | -2.0on 23 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 12 We Want Picks | 83 of 127 picks | 82.8 wins | +0.1 | -7.8 to +8.1 | +1.5on 104 picks | 16 | Too early to tell |
| 13 Daniel Vreeland | 15 of 25 picks | 15.1 wins | -0.3 | -18.4 to +17.1 | +14.3on 12 picks | 11 | Too early to tell |
| 14 Angelo Bodetti | 15 of 23 picks | 15.2 wins | -0.8 | -23.2 to +20.6 | +1.8on 14 picks | 2 | Too early to tell |
| 15 Lucas Tracy | 25 of 42 picks | 25.5 wins | -1.1 | -15.3 to +13.3 | -5.7on 25 picks | 7 | Too early to tell |
| 16 MMA Husky Hustler | 19 of 30 picks | 19.5 wins | -1.6 | -19.1 to +14.3 | -0.6on 30 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 17 DFS By The Numbers | 84 of 129 picks | 86.6 wins | -2.0 | -10.1 to +5.9 | +0.8on 107 picks | 16 | Too early to tell |
| 18 KennyOkoyeMMA | 41 of 63 picks | 42.4 wins | -2.2 | -14.8 to +9.8 | -1.5on 39 picks | 11 | Too early to tell |
| 19 Kunath | 16 of 27 picks | 16.6 wins | -2.2 | -20.5 to +15.6 | +1.1on 25 picks | 5 | Too early to tell |
| 20 HopperMMA | 68 of 108 picks | 70.4 wins | -2.2 | -10.6 to +6.0 | +2.8on 86 picks | 14 | Too early to tell |
| 21 Brent Brookhouse | 20 of 33 picks | 20.8 wins | -2.4 | -19.7 to +14.6 | +1.1on 12 picks | 7 | Too early to tell |
| 22 MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) | 33 of 56 picks | 34.4 wins | -2.4 | -14.6 to +9.4 | -4.5on 43 picks | 7 | Too early to tell |
| 23 Michael Chiesa | 30 of 47 picks | 31.3 wins | -2.7 | -15.9 to +9.2 | -2.0on 50 picks | 6 | Too early to tell |
| 24 Pure Picks | 17 of 29 picks | 18.0 wins | -3.4 | -20.6 to +14.5 | -3.1on 27 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 25 Mike Finch | 21 of 38 picks | 22.4 wins | -3.6 | -18.6 to +11.7 | -3.6on 17 picks | 8 | Too early to tell |
| 26 MMA JOEY | 54 of 87 picks | 57.3 wins | -3.8 | -14.0 to +6.3 | -3.8on 59 picks | 11 | Too early to tell |
| 27 Jake Letarski | 26 of 44 picks | 27.7 wins | -3.8 | -18.4 to +10.2 | -21.8on 11 picks | 9 | Too early to tell |
| 28 Andrew Richardson | 34 of 55 picks | 36.2 wins | -4.0 | -15.5 to +7.5 | -6.7on 35 picks | 13 | Too early to tell |
| 29 JakeGerberMMA | 63 of 100 picks | 68.2 wins | -5.2 | -14.4 to +3.8 | -2.0on 90 picks | 12 | Too early to tell |
| 30 Bert MMA | 13 of 23 picks | 14.2 wins | -5.4 | -27.3 to +15.7 | -2.2on 12 picks | 2 | Too early to tell |
| 31 Matthew Petela | 11 of 23 picks | 12.4 wins | -6.2 | -27.8 to +15.6 | -0.1on 12 picks | 2 | Too early to tell |
| 32 Brian Campbell | 18 of 33 picks | 20.4 wins | -7.2 | -24.1 to +9.7 | -13.1on 12 picks | 7 | Too early to tell |
| 33 PickemMMA | 12 of 21 picks | 13.5 wins | -7.2 | -31.7 to +15.3 | -9.1on 10 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 34 Half The Battle | 54 of 95 picks | 61.2 wins | -7.6 | -16.6 to +1.8 | -2.2on 73 picks | 11 | Too early to tell |
| 35 Jesse Holland | 27 of 54 picks | 31.3 wins | -8.0 | -20.5 to +5.2 | -9.3on 24 picks | 17 | Too early to tell |
| 36 Artem MMA | 25 of 46 picks | 28.8 wins | -8.2 | -22.1 to +6.3 | -16.0on 28 picks | 7 | Too early to tell |
| 37 Shakiel Mahjouri | 18 of 34 picks | 20.8 wins | -8.4 | -25.8 to +8.2 | -20.1on 13 picks | 8 | Too early to tell |
| 38 Clenbat | 13 of 24 picks | 15.1 wins | -8.6 | -29.3 to +11.3 | -14.9on 14 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 39 Michael Mormile | 17 of 33 picks | 19.9 wins | -8.9 | -26.2 to +7.8 | -35.8on 10 picks | 7 | Too early to tell |
| 40 Marcel Dorff | 16 of 28 picks | 18.5 wins | -8.9 | -27.3 to +9.1 | -1.0on 18 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 41 MikesMMAPicks | 13 of 23 picks | 15.0 wins | -8.9 | -29.9 to +12.3 | -8.7on 21 picks | 2 | Too early to tell |
| 42 Chris Schweppe | 24 of 49 picks | 28.4 wins | -9.1 | -23.0 to +4.8 | -7.9on 46 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 43 Zain Bando | 12 of 23 picks | 14.4 wins | -10.6 | -32.9 to +9.3 | -11.3on 12 picks | 2 | Too early to tell |
| 44 Bookie Beatdown | 18 of 35 picks | 21.7 wins | -10.7 | -27.9 to +6.0 | -12.7on 26 picks | 5 | Too early to tell |
| 45 Nick Kalikas | 12 of 23 picks | 14.5 wins | -10.9 | -32.8 to +9.8 | -12.5on 21 picks | 2 | Too early to tell |
| 46 Michael Bisping | 16 of 30 picks | 19.3 wins | -11.1 | -28.0 to +6.8 | -0.9on 21 picks | 6 | Too early to tell |
| 47 Chris Olson | 23 of 50 picks | 28.8 wins | -11.6 | -25.4 to +2.2 | -9.5on 11 picks | 10 | Too early to tell |
| 48 Joe SunTszu | 21 of 44 picks | 26.3 wins | -12.0 | -26.3 to +2.8 | -21.8on 11 picks | 9 | Too early to tell |
| 49 MMA Mathletes | 12 of 22 picks | 14.6 wins | -12.0 | -33.5 to +9.0 | -4.5on 14 picks | 2 | Too early to tell |
| 50 James Lynch | 17 of 32 picks | 21.0 wins | -12.4 | -30.0 to +5.1 | -6.6on 23 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 51 Jon Litterine | 26 of 55 picks | 32.9 wins | -12.5 | -25.1 to +0.2 | -9.2on 20 picks | 10 | Too early to tell |
| 52 Cole Shelton | 30 of 62 picks | 38.0 wins | -12.9 | -24.8 to -1.3 | -7.4on 28 picks | 10 | Behind so far |
| 53 Walk The Line MMA | 10 of 21 picks | 12.9 wins | -13.6 | -36.0 to +9.3 | -14.4on 11 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 54 Andrew Sumian | 11 of 23 picks | 14.2 wins | -13.8 | -35.8 to +6.9 | -6.1on 12 picks | 2 | Too early to tell |
| 55 Uselyis | 16 of 31 picks | 20.3 wins | -13.8 | -30.8 to +3.0 | -15.8on 26 picks | 5 | Too early to tell |
| 56 Ground"N"Pound (Aaran) | 10 of 20 picks | 12.9 wins | -14.6 | -38.2 to +8.0 | -22.8on 9 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 57 Fight Productions | 11 of 22 picks | 14.2 wins | -14.6 | -35.4 to +6.8 | -9.3on 20 picks | 5 | Too early to tell |
| 58 Brandon K | 9 of 21 picks | 12.4 wins | -16.1 | -37.7 to +5.7 | -34.0on 11 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 59 Alexander K. Lee | 10 of 23 picks | 14.0 wins | -17.5 | -38.3 to +3.9 | -18.5on 11 picks | 2 | Too early to tell |
| 60 Brandon Wise | 14 of 33 picks | 20.0 wins | -18.1 | -33.7 to -2.4 | -15.8on 12 picks | 7 | Too early to tell |
| 61 MMA JAWN | 10 of 21 picks | 14.1 wins | -19.4 | -40.5 to +2.6 | -21.8on 10 picks | 3 | Too early to tell |
| 62 Greedo Plays MMA | 11 of 25 picks | 16.0 wins | -19.8 | -39.0 to -0.7 | -14.3on 23 picks | 8 | Too early to tell |
| 63 The MMA Yuda | 8 of 22 picks | 13.9 wins | -26.8 | -46.7 to -6.1 | -26.7on 21 picks | 4 | Too early to tell |
| 64 Chris White | 8 of 23 picks | 15.0 wins | -30.5 | -48.0 to -11.8 | -21.9on 21 picks | 2 | Too early to tell |
The group row counts each fight once, so one heavily picked card cannot dominate it; adding every pick together instead gives -6.9 per 100 picks. The market price is a snapshot before the fight, not the price when each analyst posted.
The latest card: UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Who got the latest card right? One card is never evidence of skill, so this board has no badges: it shows everyone who picked at least half of it, top and bottom.
- Card: UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, 10 October 2026: 11 fights picked.
- Who is listed: analysts who picked at least 6 of the 11 (57).
| Analyst | Record on the card | Fight by fight, in card order (✓ right, ✗ wrong, · no pick) |
|---|---|---|
| Back the favourite in every fight | 6 of 11 fights | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| KingofCrackdown5095 | 8 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: right.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Andy Lang | 7 of 10 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: right.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: no pick.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: right. |
| Cooper Albers | 4 of 6 picks | Fight 1: no pick.Fight 2: no pick.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: no pick.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: no pick.Fight 11: no pick. |
| Andrew Richardson | 4 of 6 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: right.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: no pick.Fight 8: no pick.Fight 9: no pick.Fight 10: no pick.Fight 11: no pick. |
| The MMA Guru | 7 of 11 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: right.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Anthony Marro | 7 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Angelo Bodetti | 7 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| MMA OddsBreaker | 7 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Mate Bersenadze | 7 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: right.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Mike Finch | 7 of 11 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: right.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Adam Martin | 7 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Nick Marro | 7 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Tim Edwards | 6 of 10 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: no pick.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: wrong.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Drake Burden | 6 of 10 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: right.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: no pick.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Bookie Beatdown | 6 of 10 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: right.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: no pick.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: wrong.Fight 11: wrong. |
| DON SMOKE MMA | 5 of 9 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: right.Fight 3: no pick.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: no pick.Fight 11: wrong. |
| KennyOkoyeMMA | 6 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: wrong.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| James Blissett | 6 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: right.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: wrong.Fight 6: right.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: wrong.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Chris Schweppe | 6 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: wrong.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: wrong.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: right.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| JakeGerberMMA | 6 of 11 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Brandon K | 6 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: wrong.Fight 6: right.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: wrong.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Clenbat | 6 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: right.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: wrong.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Ground"N"Pound (Aaran) | 6 of 11 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| PickemMMA | 6 of 11 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: right.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: wrong.Fight 11: wrong. |
| MikesMMAPicks | 6 of 11 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Nick Kalikas | 6 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Zain Bando | 6 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Artem MMA | 6 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: right.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: wrong.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Uselyis | 6 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| MMA Lock of the Night | 6 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: wrong.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: right.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: wrong.Fight 11: wrong. |
| MMA Mathletes | 5 of 10 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: no pick.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| UFCharlesDoBronx | 5 of 10 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: wrong.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: right.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: no pick.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Gerardo Rivas | 4 of 8 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: wrong.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: right.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: no pick.Fight 9: no pick.Fight 10: no pick.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Owen Liao | 3 of 6 picks | Fight 1: no pick.Fight 2: no pick.Fight 3: no pick.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: no pick.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: no pick.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Drew Beaupre | 5 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: wrong.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: wrong.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Garrett Kerman | 5 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: wrong.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: right.Fight 7: wrong.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| James Lynch | 5 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: wrong.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| MMA JOEY | 5 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: wrong.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Daniel Vreeland | 5 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: wrong.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: wrong.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Bert MMA | 5 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: right.Fight 3: wrong.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: wrong.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: wrong.Fight 11: wrong. |
| MMA JAWN | 5 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: wrong.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| The MMA Yuda | 5 of 11 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: wrong.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Walk The Line MMA | 5 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: wrong.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: right.Fight 7: wrong.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Matthew Petela | 5 of 11 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: wrong.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: right. |
| Greedo Plays MMA | 5 of 11 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: wrong.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Jeff Fox | 5 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: wrong.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: wrong.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Marcel Dorff | 5 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: wrong.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Matty Betss | 4 of 9 picks | Fight 1: no pick.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: wrong.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: no pick.Fight 11: wrong. |
| FightStudy | 4 of 11 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: wrong.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Fight Productions | 4 of 11 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: wrong.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: right.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Alexander K. Lee | 4 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: wrong.Fight 5: wrong.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: wrong.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Andrew Sumian | 4 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: right.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: wrong.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: wrong.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: wrong.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Cole Shelton | 3 of 11 picks | Fight 1: right.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: right.Fight 5: wrong.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: wrong.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: wrong.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Jon Litterine | 2 of 11 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: wrong.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: wrong.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: wrong.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Chris White | 2 of 11 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: right.Fight 4: wrong.Fight 5: right.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: wrong.Fight 8: wrong.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: wrong.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Half The Battle | 2 of 11 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: wrong.Fight 4: wrong.Fight 5: wrong.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: right.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: wrong.Fight 11: wrong. |
| Chris Olson | 1 of 6 picks | Fight 1: wrong.Fight 2: wrong.Fight 3: no pick.Fight 4: no pick.Fight 5: no pick.Fight 6: wrong.Fight 7: right.Fight 8: no pick.Fight 9: wrong.Fight 10: no pick.Fight 11: wrong. |
- Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
- Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert
- Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza
- Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III
- Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert
- Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi
- Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim
- Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan
- Allen Frye Jr. vs. RJ Harris
- Alice Pereira vs. Daria Zhelezniakova
- Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro
What the badges mean
One written rule, applied the same way on every board. Each badge is a word, never only a colour.
- Proven
Still ahead after allowing for how many analysts are on the board (Holm’s correction across every listed row, adjusted p below 0.05), with at least 50 picks. Very unlikely to be luck. On the boards today: 0 rows.
- Promising
At least 50 picks and the whole 95% range above zero; on the money boards, also in profit when the same picks are re-priced at Polymarket prices, over at least 20 of them that have one; on Beat the market?, also above what the sportsbook expected over at least 20 sportsbook-priced picks. A screening label, not proof: ahead on their own record, but one of many analysts checked, so luck is not ruled out. On the boards today: 1 row.
- Too early to tell
Everything else, including every row under 50 picks. Could easily be luck either way. On the boards today: 187 rows.
- Behind so far
At least 50 picks and the whole 95% range below zero. Never used in a headline. On the boards today: 9 rows.
- Baseline
What you would have got without any analyst: backing the favourite (or the underdog) in every fight, or the average analyst. An analyst adds value only by beating these rows.
How to read the boards
The same rules for every row.
Every pick counts as a $100 bet on the fighter the analyst named, at the median sportsbook price stored shortly before the card. At decimal odds of 3.00 a winner makes $200; at 1.40 it makes $40; a loser always costs $100.
Profit and return always come with the number of picks. +$500 on 20 picks means much less than +$500 on 200.
The Baseline rows are what you would have got without any analyst: backing the favourite in every fight, and the average analyst. An analyst adds value only by beating those. “Favourite on the same fights” asks what backing the favourite would have made in just the fights that analyst picked, which takes out the luck of picking easy cards.
A 95% range is how far the result could plausibly move with different luck on the same kind of fights; the bar marks zero, and the numbers are printed beside it. Badges: today no row is Proven and 1 row is Promising, across 197 listed rows.
The Polymarket check repeats the analyst’s money record on a different price: one reconstructed from Polymarket’s public trading history, which is a prediction market, not a sportsbook. It re-prices the same picks the row shows, wherever that fight also has a Polymarket price, so its pick count can be lower than the row’s; it is never added to the sportsbook figure.
“Beat the market?” asks a different question from the money boards: did the analyst’s picks win more often than the betting market expected? For each pick, the market’s chance for the picked fighter, with its margin removed, is what it expected; the board shows wins minus that, per 100 picks, on the Polymarket price, with the sportsbook price as a separate cross-check. Its group row counts each fight once.
There is no “hot form” board. A short run of recent picks swings on one or two upsets, and this study has no test yet showing that an analyst’s recent form predicts their next card, so it stays out until one does. One card is never evidence of skill.
Prices are snapshots from shortly before the card, not the price when the analyst posted, and real bets carry fees and limits. This is a record of the past, not betting advice.
The whole record
As of 10 October 2026, 224 analysts had made 5,521 resolved winner picks across 54 events and 457 fights. 3,250 were right — 58.9%.
| Picks logged | Count |
|---|---|
| Resolved winner picks (the denominator above) | 5,521 |
| Not counted: draws and no-contests | 72 |
| Not counted: analyst did not commit to a side | 12 |
| Not counted: fight cancelled | 15 |
| Not counted: fight not yet settled | 574 |
| Not counted: source not shown to predate the fight | 0 |
No margin of error is quoted for this rate. Many analysts pick the same fights, so the picks are not independent, and a conventional interval would look more certain than the data is. Picks are pooled across analysts, so an analyst who logs more picks counts for more; this is the record of the picks, not an average of the analysts.
That rate is not a verdict on its own. Only the 4,310 picks on fights with a known pre-fight price can be set against the favourite. Those picks were right 2,445 times (56.7%). Picking the favourite on every one of those same picks would have been right 2,721 times (63.1%). Individual picks trail the favourite on these fights; 896 of them backed the underdog, and those were right 34.6% of the time. Whether the analyst majority does better than the favourite is a separate question, answered below.
Does the analyst majority beat the favourite?
Measured on the same fights, so the two rows are directly comparable.
The two methods picked the same fighter on 182 of the 212 compared fights, so they could only differ on the other 30: the fights where most analysts backed the underdog. On those, the analyst majority was right 13 times and the favourite 17. That is well within what chance alone would produce, so this data does not show either method is better (sign test, p = 0.585).
| Method, on the same 212 fights | Right | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Pick whichever side most analysts picked | 143 of 212 | 67.5% |
| Pick the pre-fight favourite | 147 of 212 | 69.3% |
Included: fights with a known pre-fight price where at least 3 analysts made a resolved pick and the split was not exactly even. Left out, and counted: 8 exactly split fights and 39 with fewer than 3 priced picks.
Favourite picks and underdog picks
Only picks on fights with a known pre-fight price.
| Pick | Right | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Picked the favourite | 2,135 of 3,414 | 62.5% |
| Picked the underdog | 310 of 896 | 34.6% |
4,310 of 5,521 resolved picks carry a known pre-fight price; the other 1,211 are left out of this table because a favourite cannot be named for them. A favourite pick being right more often than an underdog pick says how the fights went, not which analysts are better.
How this was measured
So you can check it.
A pick counts once its fight has a winner, and it is right when it named that winner. It uses the same definition as every analyst’s track record; nothing here is scored separately. Every pick is logged with its source and the way it was verified, shown on the analyst’s own page. See the full methodology.
Every counted pick was on record before its fight. A pick counts only when its source is dated before the fight began: 4,795 dated by the article or video they came from; 91 dated by the upload date of their registered video; 635 dated by the day a prediction-tracker screenshot recorded them. A source dated only by its day is read as the end of that day, so a same-day source never counts as earlier than a fight it might have followed.
Where the prices come from. The favourite is whichever fighter the market gave the better chance before the fight. The comparison covers 212 of the 457 fights that have resolved picks. Of those 212, 24 use a frozen pre-event sportsbook consensus and 188 use a price reconstructed afterwards from Polymarket’s public trading history. A reconstructed price is not a sportsbook line and is not presented as one. In this section it is used only to say which fighter was the favourite; no individual odds are shown anywhere on the page. Either price is taken shortly before the event or the fight begins, so it can reflect news such as weigh-ins or injuries that an earlier pick could not have known, and any fight the market saw as close to even still counts as having a favourite.
The sign test. On a fight where the two methods disagree, exactly one of them is right. The sign test asks how often a split at least as lopsided as the one observed would appear if each method were equally likely to be the one that was right.
What this cannot tell you. The analysts are the ones this site tracks, not a random sample of MMA analysts. The record covers only the fights they chose to pick, and the comparison only those with a known price; fights with a price may differ from fights without one, and nothing here tests that. This section is not a ranking of analysts; the boards above are, under the badge rule. None of it is betting advice: it says how the logged picks turned out, not whether any future pick is a good bet.