Adam Martin writes about MMA and other sports for Heavy. He hosts The MMAOB Daily Podcast with Adam Martin and Big Marcel. His previous outlets include The Toronto Star, Sportsnet, theScore, Bookies and the BJPenn website.
Scorecard
Called 23 of 40 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
- Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows: read where a line sits alongside its denominator. Winner covers every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss
23 of 40 — 57% now, from 80% at their first scored card.
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Method
40% 4 of 10 correct winners that named a method
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Round
0 of 1 correct winner that named a round — too few to chart a trend.
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Underdog
40% 2 of 5 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first. One mark per resolved call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Allen vs. Duncan 7 hit · 4 miss
- Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos 4 hit · 8 miss
- Crypto.com UFC 331 8 hit · 4 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 4 hit · 1 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Allen vs. Duncan
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 51.1%. Allen · Dec | Allen · Sub R5 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Adam Martin picks Brendan Allen to beat Christian Leroy Duncan by decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 51.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.1%. Camilo · KO/TKO · R1 | Herbert · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Adam Martin picks Matheus Camilo to beat Jai Herbert by knockout in round one. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 56.6%. Fili · Dec | Fili · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Adam Martin picks Andre Fili to beat Kai Kamaka III by decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.6% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Franco · KO/TKO · R1 | Ribeiro · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Adam Martin picks Felipe Franco to beat Brendson Ribeiro by knockout in round one, stated as "first round TKO". Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Harris · KO/TKO · R1 | Frye Jr. · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Adam Martin picks RJ Harris to beat Allen Frye Jr. by knockout in round one. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Godinez · Dec | Godinez · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Adam Martin picks Loopy Godinez to beat Ketlen Souza by decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.4% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Kareckaitė vs Gatto | Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called |
| Favourite call, market price 54.5%. Pereira · KO/TKO | Pereira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Adam Martin picks Alice Pereira to beat Daria Zhelezniakova by knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 54.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Prado · KO/TKO | Prado · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Adam Martin picks Francisco Prado to beat Ismael Bonfim by knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Walker · KO/TKO | Walker · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Adam Martin picks Julius Walker to beat Gerald Meerschaert by knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.9%. Wellmaker · KO/TKO | Tanzilovi · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Adam Martin picks Malcolm Wellmaker to beat Otari Tanzilovi by knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Price · to win | Price · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
The MMAOddsBreaker UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table selects Niko Price. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 56.7%. Rosas Jr. · to win | Rosas Jr. · KO/TKO R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Adam Martin gives Raul Rosas Jr. the edge over Raoni Barcelos, citing Rosas Jr.'s 17-year age advantage. “the fact that Rosas is 17 years younger should give him the edge he needs to win the biggest fight of his career.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.7% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 36.3%. Amaya · to win | Machado · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 36.3% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
| Bellato · to win | Edwards · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article. | |||||
| Castaneda · to win | Alatengheili · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article. | |||||
| Jauregui · to win | Jauregui · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 40.3%. Dumont · to win | Perez · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 40.3% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
| Harrell · to win | Brener · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Hernandez · to win | Hernandez · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Nakamura · to win | Hiestand · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article. | |||||
| Jackson · to win | Jackson · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.7%. Osmanli · to win | Akylbek · DQ R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.7% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Bryczek · to win | Vieira · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Written pick by Adam Martin in the cited pre-event article. | |||||
Crypto.com UFC 331
Van vs. Pantoja 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 8 4
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 78.5%. Brito · to win | Brito · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Adam Martin on Joanderson Brito. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. O'Neill · to win | O'Neill · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Adam Martin on Casey O'Neill. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Shahbazyan · to win | Shahbazyan · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Adam Martin on Edmen Shahbazyan. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Gandra · to win | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Yoo · to win | Aswell Jr. · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Despaigne · to win | Despaigne · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Jourdain · to win | Vera · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Baraniewski · to win | Menifield · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 91.5%. Steveson · to win | Sharaf · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 91.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 30.1%. Pitbull · to win | Pitbull · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 30.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.8%. Tsarukyan · to win | Tsarukyan · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Van · to win | Van · Dec R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Owner-authorized PredictionsTracker screenshot records this analyst's UFC 331 winner selection; the source records no method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 4
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 42.5%. Gamrot · Dec | Salkilld · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Gamrot by decision. “Give me Gamrot by decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 42.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · KO/TKO | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Ferreira by knockout. “That’s my pick though, Ferreira by knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO · R2 | Asplund · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Takes Asplund by second-round knockout. “Easy pick, Steven Asplin. Knocks him out. Easy pick. Overwhelms him with punches in the second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Sousa · KO/TKO | Sousa · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Sousa by knockout. “I’m going to take Manuel Sousa by knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Miller · Dec | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Miller by decision. “I got to go with Miller here. I’m going decision.” | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Adam Martin's logged calls.