Marcel Dorff covers MMA and soccer for Heavy and co-hosts an MMAOddsBreaker podcast with Adam Martin. He previously wrote for MMA DNA and Eurosport Nederland.
Scorecard
Called 17 of 29 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
- Method Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
- Round Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows: read where a line sits alongside its denominator. Winner covers every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss
17 of 29 — 59% now, from 100% at their first scored card. The first 1 point is drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
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Method
55% 6 of 11 correct winners that named a method
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Round
20% 1 of 5 correct winners that named a round
-
Underdog
1 of 4 priced underdog calls — too few to chart a trend.
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first. One mark per resolved call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Allen vs. Duncan 5 hit · 6 miss
- Crypto.com UFC 331 6 hit · 6 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 4 hit · 0 miss
- Du Plessis vs. Usman 2 hit · 0 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Allen vs. Duncan
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
- Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 51.1%. Allen · Sub · R3 | Allen · Sub R5 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Marcel Dorff picks Brendan Allen to beat Christian Leroy Duncan by submission in round three. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 51.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 56.6%. Fili · Dec | Fili · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Marcel Dorff picks Andre Fili to beat Kai Kamaka III by decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.6% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Harris · KO/TKO · R1 | Frye Jr. · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Marcel Dorff picks RJ Harris to beat Allen Frye Jr. by knockout in round one. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Godinez · Dec | Godinez · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Marcel Dorff picks Loopy Godinez to beat Ketlen Souza by decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.4% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Kareckaitė vs Gatto | Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called |
| Underdog call, market price 45.5%. Zhelezniakova · Dec | Pereira · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Marcel Dorff picks Daria Zhelezniakova to beat Alice Pereira by decision. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 45.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Prado · KO/TKO | Prado · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Marcel Dorff picks Francisco Prado to beat Ismael Bonfim by knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Shahbazyan · Sub | Price · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Marcel Dorff picks Leon Shahbazyan to beat Niko Price by submission. The caption renders the surname variously; the matchup context is the only Price bout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Walker · KO/TKO | Walker · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Marcel Dorff picks Julius Walker to beat Gerald Meerschaert by knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.9%. Wellmaker · KO/TKO | Tanzilovi · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Marcel Dorff picks Malcolm Wellmaker to beat Otari Tanzilovi by knockout. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.1%. Camilo · to win | Herbert · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMAOddsBreaker’s UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table lists Big Marcel on Matheus Camilo. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Franco · to win | Ribeiro · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMAOddsBreaker’s UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table lists Big Marcel on Felipe Franco. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Crypto.com UFC 331
Van vs. Pantoja 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 78.5%. Brito · to win | Brito · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Big Marcel (Marcel Dorff) on Joanderson Brito. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. O'Neill · to win | O'Neill · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Big Marcel (Marcel Dorff) on Casey O'Neill. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 37.5%. Ferreira · to win | Shahbazyan · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Big Marcel (Marcel Dorff) on Edmen Shahbazyan. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 37.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Gandra · to win | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Big Marcel (Marcel Dorff) on Ryan Gandra. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 38.5%. Aswell Jr. · to win | Aswell Jr. · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Big Marcel (Marcel Dorff) on Joosang Yoo. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 38.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Despaigne · to win | Despaigne · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Big Marcel (Marcel Dorff) on Robelis Despaigne. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Jourdain · to win | Vera · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Big Marcel (Marcel Dorff) on Charles Jourdain. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Baraniewski · to win | Menifield · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Big Marcel (Marcel Dorff) on Iwo Baraniewski. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 91.5%. Steveson · to win | Sharaf · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Big Marcel (Marcel Dorff) on Gable Steveson. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 91.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.9%. Choi · to win | Pitbull · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Big Marcel (Marcel Dorff) on Dooho Choi. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.8%. Tsarukyan · to win | Tsarukyan · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Big Marcel (Marcel Dorff) on Arman Tsarukyan. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Pantoja · to win | Van · Dec R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
MMAOddsBreaker's UFC 331 staff-picks table lists Big Marcel (Marcel Dorff) on Joshua Van. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 4
- Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Ferreira · KO/TKO · R2 | Ferreira · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Ferreira by second-round TKO. “Picking Ferreira by TKO second round.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Asplund · KO/TKO · R1 | Asplund · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Takes Asplund by first-round TKO. “Yeah, man. Steven Aspen's for me as well. first round TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Sousa · KO/TKO | Sousa · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Sousa by knockout. “I’m picking Sousa by knockout as well, just like you.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Miller · Sub | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Takes Miller by submission. “I’m picking Miller here as well. I’m going submission, second round for Miller.” | |||||
Du Plessis vs. Usman
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 2
- Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · KO/TKO · R2 | Duncan · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Picks Duncan to stop Cannonier in the second round. “Do I pick him by finish? Yeah, I I would say second round TKO for uh for Christian.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.2%. Hooper · Sub · R1 | Hooper · Sub R1 | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
Picks Hooper by first-round submission, viewing the matchup as a chance for him to rebound. “>> Yeah, I'm picking Trooper Chase Hooper here.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.2% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Marcel Dorff's logged calls.