Bookie Beatdown is an MMA betting show presented by Paul Shaughnessy and Cody Saftic. Its UFC previews cover fight picks, bets and props.
Scorecard
Called 19 of 36 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 3 6
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows: read where a line sits alongside its denominator. Winner covers every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss
19 of 36 — 53% now, from 50% at their first scored card.
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Method
0 of 2 correct winners that named a method — too few to chart a trend.
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Underdog
33% 3 of 9 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Round — No round calls scored yet
Card by card
Newest card first. One mark per resolved call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Allen vs. Duncan 6 hit · 4 miss
- Crypto.com UFC 331 4 hit · 3 miss
- UFC 330 4 hit · 4 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 1 hit · 2 miss
- Medic vs. Rodriguez 4 hit · 4 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Buckley vs. Malott
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buckley vs Malott | Buckley · to win | Upcoming | Buckley | Not called | Not called |
| Blanchfield vs Jasudavicius | Blanchfield · to win | Upcoming | Blanchfield | Not called | Not called |
| Nelson vs Perez | Perez · to win | Upcoming | Perez | Not called | Not called |
| Barriault vs Daukaus | Daukaus · to win | Upcoming | Daukaus | Not called | Not called |
| Jourdain vs Cuamba | Jourdain · to win | Upcoming | Jourdain | Not called | Not called |
| Boser vs Diniz | Boser · to win | Upcoming | Boser | Not called | Not called |
| Mahjoub vs Faglier | Faglier · to win | Upcoming | Faglier | Not called | Not called |
Allen vs. Duncan
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyNamed rounds — none on a correct call yet
- Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Franco · to win | Ribeiro · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
“the wrestling's there enough to get Brenson down both those things should materialize in a takedown and a ground and pound finish so despite all my reserves I'm going to take Franco” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Harris · to win | Frye Jr. · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
“listen I think RJ Harris wins i don't mind him this week i'm definitely going to play him” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 45.5%. Zhelezniakova · to win | Pereira · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
“yeah I'm going to take Zenolova Daria by volume in a close contentious chick fight that probably goes 15 minutes” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 45.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Price · to win | Price · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
“got to make a pick under my head i guess I'm going to take Nico Price as well” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Walker · to win | Walker · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
“Walker is the pick for me it's time for the kids to get back on track and time for Gerald to take off the gloves” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 51.1%. Allen · to win | Allen · Sub R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
“why I am going to end up taking him is the experience the grappling the wrestling the pace the cardio the experience of going five rounds” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 51.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 36.9%. Herbert · to win | Herbert · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
“i'm just going to bite the bullet here plug my nose and take Jai Herbert” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 36.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 56.6%. Fili · to win | Fili · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
“i'm going with Andre Feelely” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.6% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Godinez · to win | Godinez · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
“Lupy Godz is the side for me uh on the money line what about you yeah same here” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.4% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.9%. Wellmaker · KO/TKO · R1 | Tanzilovi · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
“he is a side for me and I'm going to just uh I'm going to take it this is where he gets back on track with the first round knockouts” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Crypto.com UFC 331
Van vs. Pantoja 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 57.1% 4 3
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Van · to win | Van · Dec R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Both hosts are on Joshua Van after the UFC 331 main-event discussion. “we're both on the same page here. Josh Van should be and still by the end” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 58.5% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 91.5%. Steveson · to win | Sharaf · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Both hosts confirm Gable Stevenson as the side in the dedicated matchup segment; the first-round finish discussion is not promoted to a method call. “this is a beatdown and that Gable Stevenson is going to beat him down” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 91.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Yoo · to win | Aswell Jr. · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Both hosts agree on Michael Aswell as the underdog side. “I'm on Michael as well.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 81.5%. Gandra · to win | Gandra · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Both hosts land on Ryan Gandra; their finish timing differs, so only the winner is recorded. “Gandra for me as well.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 81.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 37.5%. Ferreira · to win | Shahbazyan · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Both hosts select Edmen Shahbazyan; the discussion includes an early-finish angle but no shared method call is recorded. “So, Shabbazian for me.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 37.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.5%. O'Neill · to win | O'Neill · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Both hosts agree that Casey O’Neill gets her hand raised. “Casey O'Neil gets her hand raised. We're on the same page.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 78.5%. Brito · to win | Brito · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Both hosts agree with Joanderson Brito as the side, while leaving the method open. “I agree with that.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 78.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
- Method AccuracyNamed methods — none on a correct call yet
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 63.5%. Dern · to win | Dern · Dec R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Both hosts agree on Dern, citing her broader grappling and striking edge and Robertson's five-round uncertainty. “I believe it's also Dur. So we're on the same page.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Álvarez · to win | Njokuani · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Both hosts agree on Álvarez; only one specifies submission, so the channel consensus is recorded winner-only. “I think Alvarez is going to sub him. Yeah, I got Alvarez as well.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 48.5%. Fernandes · to win | Turner · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Both hosts explicitly settle on Fernandes, with a live-betting caveat that does not change the pick. “Callaway is the pick for me as well but hesitant hesitant would prefer to bet it live to be perfectly honest” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 48.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Johnson · to win | Johnson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Both hosts agree on Johnson; the finish talk remains conditional, so no method is recorded. “I think Johnson KO Johnson round one definitely in play.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 50.5%. Luque · to win | Gore · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Both hosts settle on Luque for the same stated matchup reasons. “I'm going to take Luke.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 50.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Fernando · to win | Fernando · KO/TKO R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Both hosts agree on Fernando, characterizing him as the more finished product. “Fernando, as you said, more of a finished product. We're on the same page.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Magny · to win | Magny · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Both hosts agree on Magny; the discussed round-three prop is not stored as a method prediction. “I'm taking that little shot on Neil Magny as well.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 87.5%. Orolbai · Sub | Wells · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Both hosts ultimately endorse Orolbai by submission; the shared method is confirmed in the closing slate. “Give me a strongman sub this week on Oro by.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 87.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Sutherland · to win | Montanha · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Leans on Sutherland's cardio for a decision win. “So, I'll take the big man to uh make it two in a row in the UFC hopefully.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Miranda · to win | Sousa · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Leans Miranda without a firm method. “I got Richie Moran.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Miller · to win | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Miller, hedging between a TKO and a submission. “Miller's going to win this fight” | |||||
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 22.5%. Rodriguez · to win | Medić · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Calls Medic a coin-flip fighter who is a defensive liability and says the price is far too short, so he takes the underdog, expecting Rodriguez to have the edge if the fight escapes the first round. “cash at this number. So, yeah, again, I don't feel great about it because my guy don't feel great about it because my guy is 39 years old and just got out of is 39 years old and just got out of jail. But, but yeah, I'm going to go jail. But, but yeah, I'm going to go with Daniel Rodriguez for this main with Daniel Rodriguez for this main event, being that the line is just way event, being that the line is just way off to me. off to me. >> Yeah. No, I mean, I'm not You're not >> Yeah.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 22.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Stirling · Dec | Stirling · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Blachowicz is 43 and a step slow, while Stirling is 28, 6'4" and still improving; expects Stirling to be quicker to the punch and win at range, but thinks Blachowicz is too durable to finish. “out of there. Even if he's long in the tooth, everything like that, he's tooth, everything like that, he's slower. slower. Uh Sterling by decision would be the Uh Sterling by decision would be the official pick. But uh I'm just I feel official pick. But uh I'm just I feel like this fight like this fight on paper and everything that we kind of on paper and everything that we kind of said, like said, like everything points towards the 6'4 young, everything points towards the 6'4 young, improving k” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Rakić · to win | Rakić · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Rakic on speed and leg kicks moving up to heavyweight, while flatly refusing to bet him at the price because of the chin, the cardio and Tybura's grappling. “think we're kind of on the same page there. For me, it's dog or pass. Who's there. For me, it's dog or pass. Who's your official pick? your official pick? >> I'm going to go Rakic, but uh yeah, he's >> I'm going to go Rakic, but uh yeah, he's going to be for a minus 350, you're not going to be for a minus 350, you're not going to see him high up this week. going to see him high up this week. >> All right, moving on down. We've got >> All right, moving on down. We've got R” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Todorović · to win | Valentin · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Treats it as a 50/50 fight where Valentin is KO-or-bust with almost no volume, so he takes the home fighter on the grappling edge and the plus-money price. “And so, he's KO or bust. Valentin is KO or bust, and at minus 160, I'm just not or bust, and at minus 160, I'm just not loving it, so I got Dusko. loving it, so I got Dusko. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Uh moving on down, if you want question Uh moving on down, if you want question marks, you want a high volatility fight, marks, you want a high volatility fight, >> I got >> I got >> you're in the right place here, cuz >> you're in the right place here, cuz Velasco Seppo,” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Čepo · to win | Urbina · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Lands on Cepo because Urbina is chinny and has been violently knocked out repeatedly, even though Cepo is defensively sloppy and easy to take down. “knocked down. He might get hurt early. He'll get back up. He'll return fire. He'll get back up. He'll return fire. And Urbina is a little bit chinny for my And Urbina is a little bit chinny for my liking, so Seppo will get the win. But liking, so Seppo will get the win. But when you're betting a guy that's this when you're betting a guy that's this big of a favorite, I don't want him big of a favorite, I don't want him getting knocked down. I don't want him getting knocked down. I don't want him” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Oliveira · to win | Oliveira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Rates Oliveira a far better athlete with a stiff jab, reach and power, and sees Elliott as a generalist with takedown and striking-defence holes. “know, trying to move away, try to mitigate some of the damage. And none of mitigate some of the damage. And none of that looks good for the judges. So, it's that looks good for the judges. So, it's Michael Oliveira for me. Michael Oliveira for me. >> All right, moving on down, we've got uh >> All right, moving on down, we've got uh Bogdan Grad taking on Dennis Buzukja. Bogdan Grad minus 200 favorite, come Bogdan Grad minus 200 favorite, come back on Buzukja plus 174. back on Buzukja ” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Klein · Dec | Musayev · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Klein is faster with better striking and a reach advantage, and Musayev's offensive wrestling is not good enough to change that. Calls it their best value play. “better about that than I do about these guys that we've talked about who are guys that we've talked about who are minus three, minus four. Um but if you minus three, minus four. Um but if you want to improve it, Klein by decision. want to improve it, Klein by decision. And And then important to note, Klein's And And then important to note, Klein's 2 in shorter, but he has a 3 in reach 2 in shorter, but he has a 3 in reach advantage. So if the whole game is, advantage. So if the whole game is, yo” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Grad · Dec | Grad · Sub R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Grad's relentless pressure, high work rate and takedowns beat Buzukja, described as a generalist with no volume and no power to make Grad respect him. “Bogdan Grad. You would better be a Michael Azzwell. You would better be Michael Azzwell. You would better be someone that can keep that volume up, someone that can keep that volume up, which Basziev is not. And outside of which Basziev is not. And outside of that, Grad gets the decision win. that, Grad gets the decision win. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. A lot a lot of Brad Grad stuff really A lot a lot of Brad Grad stuff really comes down to like him getting comes down to like him getting taked” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Bookie Beatdown's logged calls.