Mike Finch is an MMA coach, analyst and interviewer who hosts The Mike Finch Show. His show offers fight breakdowns, betting picks and technical film study.
Scorecard
Called 23 of 40 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
- Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows: read where a line sits alongside its denominator. Winner covers every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss
23 of 40 — 57% now, from 64% at their first scored card.
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Method
63% 10 of 16 correct winners that named a method
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Round
0 of 2 correct winners that named a round — too few to chart a trend.
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Underdog
40% 4 of 10 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Card by card
Newest card first. One mark per resolved call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Allen vs. Duncan 7 hit · 4 miss
- Hooker vs. Parnasse 5 hit · 3 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 2 hit · 1 miss
- Du Plessis vs. Usman 2 hit · 2 miss
- UFC 329 0 hit · 1 miss
- Kape vs Horiguchi 0 hit · 1 miss
- UFC Freedom 250 0 hit · 1 miss
- UFC 326 7 hit · 4 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Allen vs. Duncan
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
- Method Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 48.9%. Duncan · KO/TKO | Allen · Sub R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Finch picks Christian Leroy Duncan by knockout, citing his striking, athleticism, range and timing. “GIVE ME CLD. I'm taking the underdog in the main event. I'm picking him by knockout over a durable, good cardio, good rear naked strangle. Brendan Allen.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 48.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.1%. Camilo · KO/TKO | Herbert · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Finch picks Matheus Camilo by knockout, citing youth, speed and striking power against Jai Herbert. “I think you'll see a fun one with these two with Matteas Camo winning by knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 56.6%. Fili · Dec | Fili · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Finch picks Andre Fili by decision; the immediately preceding segment names the bout as Fili versus Kai Kamaka III. “Andre Phy on the cards.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 56.6% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Franco · KO/TKO | Ribeiro · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Finch picks Felipe Franco by TKO, expecting him to mount and finish Ribeiro; the captioned opponent name is garbled, but the bout is established in the preceding matchup discussion. “FELIPE FRANCO over Brenen Hiro. Brennon Hiro's got the punchers chance, but I think Felipe Franco is getting this mounted TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Harris · KO/TKO | Frye Jr. · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Finch corrects his immediately preceding verbal slip and selects RJ Harris by TKO. “Excuse me. I'll I'll pick R.J. Harris uh via TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Godinez · Dec | Godinez · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Finch picks Loopy Godinez by decision after explaining her grappling advantage; captions garble both names, resolved against this bout’s scheduled pairing. “But Ly Godz decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.4% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Kareckaitė vs Gatto | Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called |
| Favourite call, market price 54.5%. Pereira · to win | Pereira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Finch explicitly reverses his earlier lean from Daria Zhelezniakova to Alice Pereira, citing Pereira’s talent and improvement. “ALICE PEREIRA, I pick flipped. I was on the underdog Daria Zalinsikova. I'll go Alice Pereira because she's talented and I saw a lot more in her second UFC fight.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 54.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Prado · KO/TKO | Prado · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Finch picks Francisco Prado by TKO after discussing the miss-weight matchup; captions garble surnames, resolved against this bout’s scheduled pairing. “I got Francisco Praau. I do think he's going to get this fight done via TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Price · KO/TKO | Price · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Finch explicitly picks Nico Price by TKO. “I'm going to pick the guy who's the actual fighter, Nico Price. TKO.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Walker · KO/TKO | Walker · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Finch picks Julius Walker by TKO, expecting Gerald Meerschaert’s age and limited takedown ability to leave him vulnerable. “out, man. Julius Walker via TKO has got to be the call now.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 36.1%. Tanzilovi · Dec | Tanzilovi · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Finch picks Otari Tanzilovi by decision after predicting takedowns, outside kicks and a close scorecard win. “Otari Tanovi risking the submission but decision.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 36.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
Hooker vs. Parnasse
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 5 3
- Method Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Aljarouj · KO/TKO | Sintes · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Rates Aljarouj's explosiveness and energy management well above Sintes' unconvincing jiu-jitsu. “This dude is a firework. I think he's going off KO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 44.5%. Montenegro · to win | Benouaich · Sub R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Leans on Montenegro's height, bullying potential and durability over Benouaich's more technical but less imposing game, while calling it close to a coinflip. “Very slight lean to Sophia Montenegro, but um man, it's a it's a tough ladies fight to call.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 44.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.6%. Campbell · Sub | Campbell · Sub R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Trusts Campbell's jiu-jitsu and live submission threat against an inactive, weight-dropping Peek. “I'm going Pink Panther. Pink Panther.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.6% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.0%. Lima · Dec | Lima · Dec R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Prefers Lima's tighter kickboxing and grappling to Charriere's chaotic, high-power but less technical style. “But um I'm going to say Lima decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Syguła · Dec | Cornolle · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favours Sygula's youth and upgraded camp against Cornolle's shoulder-injury layoff and shaky recent form. “So, yeah, man. I think Saigula game to give her a bit of a technical MMA lesson here.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Donchenko · KO/TKO | Donchenko · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Cites Donchenko's varied, heavy striking and body work as too much for Soriano. “Man, I like Denil Donchenko knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.4% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Pinto · KO/TKO · R3 | Pinto · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Expects Pinto's speed, boxing and cardio to wear down a Spann who fades after round one. “With that being said, Mario Pinto, third round TKO.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.9%. Sola · to win | Sola · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Points to Sola's post-Mason Jones improvement, reach and finishing intent as reasons to back the live underdog. “I'M GOING AXEL SOLA. I'M KIND OF ON the Axel Sola train, bro.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 27.5%. Pat · Dec | Asplund · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Takes Pat in a close decision. “me. Yeah, Stephen Aspel when he misses, he misses big. I think Gary Pat wins a close decision. I know you hate it. I don't give a [ __ ] That's all right.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 27.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Sousa · KO/TKO | Sousa · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Takes Sousa by knockout. “is drinking the same thing Paulo Costa is. I'm going Manuel Sza via knockout. Jose Montana.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Miller · to win | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Takes Miller without naming a method. “Rava Ola's fought nobody. I got to go with Juliana Miller here.” | |||||
Du Plessis vs. Usman
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
- Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 74.8%. Duncan · KO/TKO | Duncan · Dec R3 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Calls Duncan by knockout, rating the younger fighter's finishing tools and momentum above Cannonier's current form. “Duncan's gonna look the most dominant on this entire card. Christian Leroy Duncan” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 74.8% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 83.5%. Barbosa · to win | Barbosa · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Expects Barbosa's UFC experience and grappling to overwhelm the debuting Melisano on the mat. “I think Dion Barbosa is gonna be able to take her down, mount her, take her back,” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 83.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 55.5%. Bashi · Sub | Delgado · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Bashi to secure a rear-naked choke after stressing Delgado's unresolved grappling defense. “Bashy via rear naked strangle” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 55.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 52.5%. Anderson · Sub | Elliot · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Anderson by submission, arguing that Elliot repeatedly shoots and is likely to run into Anderson's more advanced jiu-jitsu. “I got to pick Damen Anderson via submission.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 52.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 68.5%. Kavanagh · Dec | Royval · Sub R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Trusts Kavanagh's cardio, energy management and cleaner striking after the Moreno fight. He thinks Royval is durable enough to avoid the finish, but not sharp enough to win the minutes. “Nah, bro. Nah, I got Kavanaaugh decision.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 68.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Kape vs Horiguchi
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 38.5%. Horiguchi · Dec | Kape · TKO (punches) R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Mike Finch picks Kyoji Horiguchi by decision. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 38.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
UFC Freedom 250
Topuria vs. Gaethje
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Daukaus · to win | Nickal · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Mike calls Daukaus the dog he would pick on this card, arguing his striking, southpaw looks and submission danger make him a bad matchup for a Nickal who has not proven enough in MMA yet. “I'm going Kyle Dawis over Bo Nickel, brother.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
UFC 326
Holloway vs Oliveira 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
- Method Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 66.5%. Borralho · Dec | Borralho · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Finch picks Caio Borralho by decision over Reinier de Ridder. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 66.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Johnson · to win | Dober · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Finch picks Michael Johnson to tear up Drew Dober, while noting Dober’s durability makes a finish uncertain. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 32.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R5 | Oliveira · Decision - Unanimous R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Finch picks Max Holloway to stop Charles Oliveira in the fifth round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Rodrigues · to win | Rodrigues · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Finch takes Gregory Rodrigues over Bruno Ferreira. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Rosas Jr. · Dec | Rosas Jr. · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Finch picks Raul Rosas Jr. to take Rob Font the distance and win by decision. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Sumudaerji · to win | Sumudaerji · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Finch picks Sumudaerji to out-volume Jesus Aguilar. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 38.5%. Garbrandt · to win | Garbrandt · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Finch picks Cody Garbrandt to win, with a possible knockout if the fight does not go long. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 38.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 86.5%. Johnson · KO/TKO · R1 | Johnson · Decision - Split R3 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Finch picks Donte Johnson by first-round knockout against Cody Brundage. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 86.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 64.0%. Montes · Sub | Montes · Sub R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Finch picks Alberto Montes to submit Ricky Turcios with a D’Arce choke. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 64.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 61.0%. Tobias · Sub | Nurgozhay · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Finch picks Rafael Tobias to submit Diyar Nurgozhay. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 61.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. Fernandez · KO/TKO | Bellato · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Finch picks Luke Fernandez to knock out Rodolfo Bellato. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Mike Finch's logged calls.