Daniel Vreeland covers MMA for Cageside Press and hosts SGPN’s MMA Gambling Podcast and the Top Turtle MMA Podcast. His earlier MMA writing appeared at The Underground and FloCombat.
Scorecard
Called 16 of 29 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner Accuracy 55.2% 16 13
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows: read where a line sits alongside its denominator. Winner covers every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss
16 of 29 — 55% now, from 0% at their first scored card. The first 3 points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
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Method
1 of 1 correct winner that named a method — too few to chart a trend.
-
Underdog
20% 1 of 5 priced underdog calls
The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.
Round — No round calls
Card by card
Newest card first. One mark per resolved call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Allen vs. Duncan 5 hit · 6 miss
- UFC 332 0 hit · 1 miss
- Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos 0 hit · 1 miss
- Crypto.com UFC 331 0 hit · 1 miss
- Silva vs. Delgado 1 hit · 0 miss
- Hooker vs. Parnasse 3 hit · 1 miss
- Nurmagomedov vs. Song 0 hit · 1 miss
- Hernandez vs. Rodrigues 1 hit · 0 miss
- UFC 330 1 hit · 0 miss
- Gamrot vs. Salkilld 1 hit · 0 miss
- Medic vs. Rodriguez 1 hit · 0 miss
- Ankalaev vs. Guskov 0 hit · 1 miss
- UFC 329 2 hit · 0 miss
- UFC Baku 1 hit · 0 miss
- Kape vs Horiguchi 0 hit · 1 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Buckley vs. Malott
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boser vs Diniz | Diniz · to win | Upcoming | Diniz | Not called | Not called |
Allen vs. Duncan
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareckaitė vs Gatto | Kareckaitė · to win | Draw | Kareckaitė | Not called | Not called |
| Favourite call, market price 51.1%. Allen · to win | Allen · Sub R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 51.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.1%. Camilo · to win | Herbert · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
“I'm going Camilo” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 43.4%. Kamaka III · to win | Fili · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
“I'm going Kamaka” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 43.4% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Franco · to win | Ribeiro · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
“I like Felipe Franco here.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.5%. Harris · to win | Frye Jr. · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
“I'm gonna go with with R.J. Harris here.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Godinez · to win | Godinez · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.4% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 54.5%. Pereira · to win | Pereira · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
“I'm going to go with Payday as well.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 54.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Bonfim · to win | Prado · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
“I'm gonna go bone fee, too.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 39.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Price · to win | Price · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
“I'm gonna take Nico Price.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 41.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Walker · to win | Walker · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
“I'm going to take Julius Walker.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.9%. Wellmaker · to win | Tanzilovi · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
“I'm still on the Wellmaker side, too” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 332
Silva vs. Wang
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McGee · to win | Nolan · KO/TKO R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Vreeland backs McGee on the moneyline without naming a method. | |||||
Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrell · to win | Brener · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Vreeland favors Harrell's punching power and physical wrestling against Brener, whose recent losses he attributes partly to difficulty handling stronger opposition. | |||||
Crypto.com UFC 331
Van vs. Pantoja 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 37.5%. Ferreira · to win | Shahbazyan · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Vreeland expects Ferreira's explosive power to produce more memorable damage and believes takedowns can create favorable positions against Shahbazyan. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 37.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
Silva vs. Delgado
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 65.5%. King · to win | King · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Vreeland favors King's recent activity, range striking and wrestling background, expecting him to keep the fight standing and exploit Rosas's limited recent competition. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 65.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Hooker vs. Parnasse
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 55.5%. Benouaich · to win | Benouaich · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Vreeland sees Benouaich as the sharper striker and expects Montenegro's willingness to exchange on the feet to suit her. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 55.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 35.0%. Charriere · to win | Lima · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Vreeland expects Charriere’s takedown defense to let him keep a striking pace that tests Lima’s cardio. Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 35.0% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Donchenko · to win | Donchenko · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Vreeland expects Donchenko to deny Soriano reliable takedowns and have the advantage in a striking fight. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.4% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 76.3%. Keita · KO/TKO | Keita · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Vreeland expects Keita to keep the fight standing, exploit Naimov’s limitations when takedowns fail, and finish with his power. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 76.3% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Xiao · to win | Nuzzi · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Vreeland favors Xiao’s wrestling options and striking matchup against Nuzzi. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Gaziev · to win | Gaziev · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Vreeland favors Gaziev’s striking and takedown threat against Nzechukwu at heavyweight. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 53.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC 330
Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Johnson · to win | Johnson · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Vreeland favors Johnson’s power, composure under adversity, physicality and takedown defense against McConico. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 75.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miller · to win | Miller · Sub R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Vreeland favors Miller’s grappling opportunities and physical matchup against Oliveira. | |||||
Medic vs. Rodriguez
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 72.5%. Leka · to win | Leka · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Vreeland expects Leka to take down and control Poppeck, who has mostly fought at light heavyweight. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 72.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby · to win | Saidov · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Backs Jacoby’s kickboxing, improved takedown defense and cardio against a slower opponent whose large striking movements tire him out. | |||||
UFC 329
McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 2
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Pinas · to win | Pinas · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Vreeland favors Pinas’s technical striking, angles and reach advantage in a matchup where he does not expect to have to defend takedowns. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 70.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · to win | Riley · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Vreeland expects a striking-heavy matchup to suit Riley and doubts Kamaka’s grappling will deter him. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 69.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC Baku
Fiziev vs. Torres
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 62.5%. Ruziboev · to win | Ruziboev · Sub R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Ruziboev’s power and Pulyaev’s limited takedown success support a moneyline call. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 62.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Kape vs Horiguchi
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 50.5%. Rosa · Dec | Santos · Decision - Unanimous R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Rosa’s volume and bantamweight clinch strength support the winner call. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 50.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Daniel Vreeland's logged calls.