Lucas Tracy

MMA analyst and YouTuber

Lucas Tracy covers UFC full-card predictions, fight breakdowns and event recaps. His channel also publishes fighter rankings and discussions of fighting attributes.

Scorecard

Called 36 of 53 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.

  • Winner Accuracy 67.9% 36 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.5% 5 8

Hit Miss

The running record

Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows: read where a line sits alongside its denominator. Winner covers every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.

Hit Miss

Winnerof resolved calls

36 of 53 — 68% now, from 100% at their first scored card.

The opening points are drawn dashed and hollow: below 5 scored calls this rate is not yet a reliable figure.

Card by card

Newest card first. One mark per resolved call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.

  1. Crypto.com UFC 331 5 hit · 6 miss
  2. UFC 330 1 hit · 0 miss
  3. UFC 329 4 hit · 3 miss
  4. UFC Freedom 250 5 hit · 2 miss
  5. UFC 328 3 hit · 2 miss
  6. UFC 327 1 hit · 4 miss
  7. UFC Seattle 6 hit · 0 miss
  8. UFC 298 11 hit · 0 miss

Call History

Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.

underdog pick   favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.

UFC 333

Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Oct 24, 2026 · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi

Analyst prediction scorecards
FightPickActualWinnerMethodRound
Volkanovski vs EvloevVolkanovski · to winUpcomingVolkanovskiNot calledNot called
Yan vs DvalishviliYan · to winUpcomingYanNot calledNot called

Crypto.com UFC 331

Van vs. Pantoja 2

Sep 19, 2026 · Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California

▶ Crypto.com UFC 331 12 picks logged for this card

Event scorecard

  • Winner Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
Analyst prediction scorecards
FightPickActualWinnerMethodRound
Moicano vs OrtegaMoicano · DecUpcomingMoicanoDecNot called
Underdog call, market price 37.5%. Ferreira · to winShahbazyan · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Favourite call, market price 78.5%. Brito · KO/TKOBrito · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Underdog call, market price 32.5%. Moura · KO/TKOO'Neill · Sub R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Underdog call, market price 18.5%. Diaz · to winGandra · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Yoo · to winAswell Jr. · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Despaigne · to winDespaigne · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
Underdog call, market price 35.5%. Vera · to winVera · KO/TKO R3HitNot calledNot called
Favourite call, market price 91.5%. Steveson · to winSharaf · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Favourite call, market price 69.9%. Choi · to winPitbull · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Favourite call, market price 72.8%. Tsarukyan · to winTsarukyan · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Van · to winVan · Dec R5HitNot calledNot called

UFC 330

Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

Aug 15, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

▶ UFC 330 1 pick logged for this card

Event scorecard

  • Winner Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
  • Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Analyst prediction scorecards
FightPickActualWinnerMethodRound
Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Makhachev · SubMakhachev · Dec R5HitMissNot called

UFC 329

McGregor vs. Holloway 2

Jul 11, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada

▶ UFC 329 7 picks logged for this card

Event scorecard

  • Winner Accuracy 57.1% 4 3
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 2
Analyst prediction scorecards
FightPickActualWinnerMethodRound
Favourite call, market price 71.5%. Holloway · KO/TKO · R1Holloway · KO/TKO R1HitHitHit
Underdog call, market price 46.5%. Cortez · DecWang · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Favourite call, market price 69.5%. Riley · to winRiley · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Favourite call, market price 55.5%. Gandra · KO/TKOGandra · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Favourite call, market price 67.5%. Costa · DecCosta · Sub R2HitMissNot called
Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Almeida · DecPinas · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Favourite call, market price 53.5%. Saint Denis · KO/TKOPimblett · Sub R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

UFC Freedom 250

Topuria vs. Gaethje

Jun 14, 2026 · Washington, D.C.

▶ UFC Freedom 250 7 picks logged for this card

Event scorecard

  • Winner Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
  • Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Analyst prediction scorecards
FightPickActualWinnerMethodRound
Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO · R1Gaethje · KO/TKO R4MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Favourite call, market price 52.5%. Pereira · KO/TKO · R3Gane · KO/TKO R2MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Favourite call, market price 77.5%. O'Malley · KO/TKO · R1O'Malley · KO/TKO R2HitHitMiss
Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Hokit · KO/TKO · R1Hokit · KO/TKO R2HitHitMiss
Favourite call, market price 81.0%. Ruffy · KO/TKORuffy · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Favourite call, market price 75.5%. Nickal · SubNickal · KO/TKO R1HitMissNot called
Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Lopes · KO/TKOLopes · KO/TKO R2HitHitNot called

UFC 328

May 9, 2026 · Newark, New Jersey

▶ UFC 328 5 picks logged for this card

Event scorecard

  • Winner Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
Analyst prediction scorecards
FightPickActualWinnerMethodRound
Favourite call, market price 80.5%. Chimaev · DecStrickland · Dec R5MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Taira · SubVan · KO/TKO R5MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Favourite call, market price 56.5%. Volkov · KO/TKOVolkov · Dec R3HitMissNot called
Underdog call, market price 37.5%. Brady · SubBrady · Dec R3HitMissNot called
Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Green · to winGreen · Sub R1HitNot calledNot called

UFC 327

Apr 11, 2026 · Miami, Florida

▶ UFC 327 5 picks logged for this card

Event scorecard

  • Winner Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 3
Analyst prediction scorecards
FightPickActualWinnerMethodRound
Underdog call, market price 49.5%. Procházka · KO/TKOUlberg · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Favourite call, market price 68.0%. Murzakanov · DecCosta · KO/TKO R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Underdog call, market price 48.5%. Blaydes · KO/TKO · R1Hokit · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Reyes · KO/TKO · R1Reyes · Dec R3HitMissMiss
Underdog call, market price 47.0%. Landwehr · to winSwanson · KO/TKO R1MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

UFC Seattle

Mar 28, 2026 · Seattle, Washington

▶ UFC Seattle 6 picks logged for this card

Event scorecard

  • Winner Accuracy 100.0% 6
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 3
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 3
Analyst prediction scorecards
FightPickActualWinnerMethodRound
Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Pyfer · KO/TKOPyfer · KO/TKO R2HitHitNot called
Underdog call, market price 36.5%. Grasso · to winGrasso · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Favourite call, market price 88.5%. Chiesa · to winChiesa · Sub R1HitNot calledNot called
Favourite call, market price 74.5%. Douglas · KO/TKODouglas · KO/TKO R1HitHitNot called
Underdog call, market price 43.5%. Belgaroui · to winBelgaroui · KO/TKO R3HitNot calledNot called
Favourite call, market price 63.5%. McKinney · KO/TKO · R1McKinney · KO/TKO R1HitHitHit

UFC 298

Feb 17, 2024 · Anaheim, California

▶ UFC 298 11 picks logged for this card

Event scorecard

  • Winner Accuracy 100.0% 11
  • Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
  • Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
  • Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Analyst prediction scorecards
FightPickActualWinnerMethodRound
Elliott · to winElliott · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
Barlow · to winBarlow · KO/TKO R3HitNot calledNot called
Zhang · to winZhang · KO/TKO R1HitNot calledNot called
Nakamura · to winNakamura · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
Lima · to winLima · KO/TKO R2HitNot calledNot called
Lemos · to winLemos · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
Hernandez · to winHernandez · Sub R2HitNot calledNot called
Dvalishvili · to winDvalishvili · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
Machado Garry · to winMachado Garry · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
Whittaker · to winWhittaker · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
Topuria · to winTopuria · KO R2HitNot calledNot called

Videos

Every source clip behind Lucas Tracy's logged calls.

Watch all of Lucas Tracy's video picks in the library