Lucas Tracy

Backs Makhachev to beat Garry and predicts a second- or third-round submission, so no single round is recorded.

▶ Hear it — 45:08 View this fight →

Not being hyperbolic. The more he studies the tape — Holloway's recent output against Poirier and Gaethje versus McGregor's five-year inactivity — the more convinced he is that Holloway steamrolls McGregor. Picks Holloway to knock him out in the first round.

“I think Max Holloway is going to knock Conor McGregor out in the first round of their fight. And I'm not being hyperbolic.”

▶ Hear it — 0:06 View this fight →

Takes Cortez as the upset side because her double-leg threat can interrupt Wang Cong's striking answers. He expects Cortez to mix calf kicks, range touches, and wrestling into a grappling-led decision.

“I'm going to go with Tracy Cortez getting the upset by a grappling decision.”

▶ Hear it — 9:39 View this fight →

Makes Riley the clear side, pointing to his speed and team context while openly treating Kamaka as the much less convincing form read. He says Riley can get it done quickly and however he wants, but does not lock a specific method.

“Luke Riley's getting this one done however he wants.”

▶ Hear it — 10:18 View this fight →

Backs Yañez as the fresher, higher-output boxer and expects Garbrandt's limited takedown threat to fade back into striking exchanges. He predicts Yañez settles in and knocks Garbrandt out.

“I'm picking him to win this.”

▶ Hear it — 12:35 View this fight →

Backs Gandra over Reese because he trusts the Contender Series-style Brazilian finishing upside more than Reese's volatile highlight-reel profile. He expects Gandra to turn that edge into a heavy TKO finish.

“I'm picking him to get this one done by a filthy TKO.”

▶ Hear it — 2:47 View this fight →

Picks against Durden because he views Costa as the better-rounded flyweight with enough grappling, heavier hands and more strength to win the fight across areas. He explicitly takes Costa by decision.

“I'm picking Alessandro Costa by decision.”

▶ Hear it — 1:24 View this fight →

Respects Pinas' knockout hype but sides with Almeida's experience, power, body work, and proven takedown defense. He expects Almeida to survive the early danger and win a crafty striking decision.

“I'm going to go with Caesar Almeida to get this one done.”

▶ Hear it — 7:19 View this fight →

After weighing Pimblett's range work and submission danger, he lands on Saint Denis' clinch pace, judo, and finishing style. He expects the fight to stay in high-pressure exchanges and end with Saint Denis doing damage from the clinch.

“I'm going to pick him to win this fight. I'm going to go with a finish.”

▶ Hear it — 45:08 View this fight →

Tracy thinks people overrate Gaethje's chances: he calls Topuria the most dangerous fighter in UFC history and by far the best in the division, while insisting Gaethje has no real KO power. He predicts a big right hook on the chin, with a takedown threat Topuria won't even need.

• 'Gaethje has no KO power': went 25 minutes with Pimblett
• Topuria has a grappling threat he won't need
• Says it 'won't even be close'

“Ilia Topuria is gonna flatline Justin Gaethje in the first round.”

* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.

▶ Hear it — 46:20 View this fight →

Tracy calls it genuinely close but picks Pereira: Gane lacks finishing power and plays the points game at range, while Pereira can match him there and is faster than people remember. He sees leg kicks accumulating, Gane slowing, and Pereira landing the left hook to finish.

• Gane has no real finishing threat — needs huge volume
• Pereira's leg kicks and underrated speed are the difference
• Could be a late TKO or even a decision if Gane shows up great

“I'm going to go with a third-round KO for Alex Pereira.”

* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.

▶ Hear it — 42:13 View this fight →

Tracy notes Zahabi is a notorious slow starter coming off a razor-thin fight with Vera, while O'Malley is dangerous early and put on one of the best bantamweight striking performances ever against Vera. He expects O'Malley to walk Zahabi onto a punch early.

• Zahabi is a chronic slow starter
• O'Malley's only trouble is an early Zahabi takedown
• O'Malley also does his best work late

* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.

▶ Hear it — 30:31 View this fight →

Tracy argues the 40-something Lewis is old, fragile-chinned and prone to wilting and has only been beating cans, while Hokit is a fast-handed, ferocious, athletic small heavyweight whose avalanche pressure overwhelms opponents. He expects a quick blitz, like the Curtis Blaydes win.

• Gives Lewis a 25-30% puncher's chance
• Hokit's relentless in-your-face style is dangerous to Lewis's chin
• Hokit's grappling is underrated — could finish on the ground

“I think we're going to see Josh Hokit knock out Derrick Lewis in the first round.”

* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.

▶ Hear it — 16:40 View this fight →

Tracy says there's no need to overthink it: Chandler is old, inactive and washed off the worst performance of his career, while the younger, longer, faster Ruffy holds reach, height, speed and defence edges. He expects a jab-then-right-hand viral KO.

• Reach (3.5in), height, youth, speed and defence edges for Ruffy
• Even if taken down, Ruffy survives and gets back up to finish
• Ruffy's grappling likely improved with Volkanovski

“Ruffy is going to knock Michael Chandler out — first or second round, a viral KO.”

* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.

▶ Hear it — 14:37 View this fight →

Tracy sees an early-danger test but expects Nickal to return to his wrestling roots, where he finally holds a sizeable grappling edge — unlike his recent better-grappler opponents. He thinks Nickal ragdolls and submits Daukaus, and notes the striking has visibly improved.

• First time in a while Nickal has a clear grappling advantage
• Daukaus's best chance is a no-respect early blitz
• Nickal's striking looked much improved last time out

“I'm going to go with Bo Nickal by a first or second-round submission.”

* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.

▶ Hear it — 10:27 View this fight →

Tracy admits he's worried Garcia's long, rangy striking could trouble Lopes, but trusts Lopes's proven iron chin, power and more well-rounded grappling. He sees Lopes as the bigger threat in a firefight and able to take Garcia down and bully him.

• Lopes's chin is battle-tested (Volk x2, Silva, Ige); Garcia's is unproven
• Power and grappling edge — could take Garcia down
• Worried Garcia's slick range striking could make Lopes look lost

“I'm going to lean Diego Lopes by a finish — more ways to win, more well-rounded, iron chin.”

* An early read — filmed ~2 weeks out (1 Jun), before fight week.

▶ Hear it — 8:03 View this fight →

Chimaev's wrestling controls all five rounds for a 50-45 decision, à la the Du Plessis fight.

▶ Hear it — 63:21 View this fight →

Taira's submission grappling is the biggest threat Van has faced; he gets the sub.

▶ Hear it — 37:37

You have to be a true top-three heavyweight to beat this Volkov; he gets a TKO.

▶ Hear it — 35:52

Brady's top-10 grappling dominates on the ground and submits Buckley.

▶ Hear it — 28:40

A Bobby Green masterclass — his all-around game far outclasses an older, one-dimensional Stephens.

▶ Hear it — 24:40

Accumulated damage and leg kicks mean nothing to Jiri; once in rhythm he gets a gnarly KO.

▶ Hear it — 42:43 View this fight →

Azamat out-damages Costa and beats him to the punch for a decision — Costa lacks the X-factor.

▶ Hear it — 29:26

Hokit can't take Blaydes down and it's too big a step up; a first-round KO.

▶ Hear it — 33:39 View this fight →

Walker is a glass cannon with bad fundamentals; Reyes's power gets there first.

▶ Hear it — 32:50

Swanson is older and no longer as dangerous; Landwehr's power and submission game edge it.

▶ Hear it — 13:45

A chinny Adesanya gets found; Pyfer by KO.

▶ Hear it — 39:46 View this fight →

Grasso's championship-level boxing is clearly superior and Barber can't hold her down.

▶ Hear it — 18:41

Chiesa out-grapples and bullies Price for a smooth, comfortable win.

▶ Hear it — 18:09

An upset call — a hammer-fist KO; he rates Douglas as the featherweight Figueiredo.

▶ Hear it — 15:39

Height and the ability to keep it standing favour Belgaroui.

▶ Hear it — 11:43

Nelson has no power to check McKinney's early onslaught; a first-round KO.

▶ Hear it — 10:39