Moneyball MMA covers matchup predictions, betting picks and post-fight recaps. Its channel also discusses prospects, rankings, title contenders and potential matchups.
Scorecard
Called 2 of 5 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
Hit Miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
UFC Freedom 250
Topuria vs. Gaethje
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
- Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 59.5%. Lopes · to win | Lopes · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Picks Diego Lopes; method is explicitly left as decision or third-round knockout, so no single method is recorded. “distance or Lopez catches Steve late in the third round. My prediction, Diego Lopez by decision or third round knockout.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 59.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 24.5%. Daukaus · Dec | Nickal · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Bo Nickal by decision. “as I believe as the fight progresses. My prediction [snorts] here is a Bo Nickal win because I think he's going to return to his wrestling roots and he's going to grind out a decision win against Daukaus, winning mainly due to top control time and ground and pound.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 24.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. O'Malley · KO/TKO | O'Malley · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Hit | Not called | |
Picks Sean O'Malley by knockout; round remains ambiguous between two and three. “O'Malley in the second or third round. My prediction is a Sean O'Malley win by knockout in round two or three.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 52.5%. Pereira · KO/TKO | Gane · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Alex Pereira by knockout; round remains ambiguous between four and five. “eventually corner Ciryl and land one of those fight-ending punches. My pick is Alex Pereira by knockout in round four or five.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 52.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · KO/TKO | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Picks Ilia Topuria by knockout. “on the entire card. My prediction is Ilia Topuria by knockout, and I love the under two and a half rounds prop as well, because I don't see this going the” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
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