Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado  12 Sep 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, US

Brandon Moreno defeats Joseph Morales by split decision

Win Brandon Moreno 24-10-2
Loss Joseph Morales 14-3-0
Split decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Moreno vs Morales — Flyweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Predictions summary

Fight details

The verified result and matchup record are available above. Analysis and a fight narrative have not been published for this bout.

Records & career stats
Moreno vs Morales
23-10-2
Record
14-2-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
Mexico
Nationality
United States
32
Age
32
1.70 m
Height — Moreno leads
1.68 m
178 cm
Reach — Moreno leads
175 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
70%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
—
5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Moreno leads
2
11
Wins by submissionSub wins — Moreno leads
8
3.86
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Moreno leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.75
3.69
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Morales leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.72
60%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
58%
67%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Moreno leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
24%
16:57
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
09:05
Team Moreno
Team
Team Alpha Male

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight
Post-fight fighter interview▶ Brandon Moreno Octagon Interview | Noche UFC

Comments

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 4:19

Current pick evidence

Picked: Brandon Moreno · Dec

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Brandon Moreno by decision.

“Moreno out-striking Morales, winning this fight on the score cards.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 34:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Brandon Moreno · Dec

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Brandon Moreno by Decision.

“I do think Moreno is going to win this by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 30:35

Current pick evidence

Picked: Brandon Moreno · Dec

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Brandon Moreno by decision.

“I'm going to go Moreno here by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 26:34

Current pick evidence

Picked: Brandon Moreno · Dec

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Brandon Moreno by decision.

“I'm going to go Moreno by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 31:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joseph Morales · Dec

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Joseph Morales by Decision.

“The pressure from Morales is going to be what ultimately wins this by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 33:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joseph Morales · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Joseph Morales by submission in round 2.

“Joseph Morales gets it done. Second-round rear-naked choke.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 40:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joseph Morales · Dec

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Joseph Morales by Decision.

“I just think Morales is going to hurt him more and sting him and it only takes one shot on those eyebrows for Brandon Moreno and boom, he's bleeding. It's going to be a flyweight decision, three rounds, probably 29-28.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 56:24

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joseph Morales · Dec

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Joseph Morales by decision.

“Going to pick Morales to win here via decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joseph Morales · Dec

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

MMA Mania's Noche UFC 4 preview has Andrew Richardson picking Joseph Morales by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 9:57

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joseph Morales

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Joseph Morales to win.

“I'm going to pick Joseph Morales to come out here and defeat Brandon Moreno.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)

Analyst picks: MMA Lock of the Night Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Miss; MMA JOEY Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; DFS By The Numbers Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Andrew Richardson Miss; Half The Battle Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
MMA Lock of the Night99 resolved calls
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 4:19

Current pick evidence

Picked: Brandon Moreno · Dec

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Brandon Moreno by decision.

“Moreno out-striking Morales, winning this fight on the score cards.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Moreno · DecMoreno · Dec R3HitHitNot called
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 34:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Brandon Moreno · Dec

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Brandon Moreno by Decision.

“I do think Moreno is going to win this by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Moreno · DecMoreno · Dec R3HitHitNot called
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 31:09

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joseph Morales · Dec

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Joseph Morales by Decision.

“The pressure from Morales is going to be what ultimately wins this by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Morales · DecMoreno · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 33:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joseph Morales · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Joseph Morales by submission in round 2.

“Joseph Morales gets it done. Second-round rear-naked choke.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Morales · Sub · R2Moreno · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 40:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joseph Morales · Dec

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Joseph Morales by Decision.

“I just think Morales is going to hurt him more and sting him and it only takes one shot on those eyebrows for Brandon Moreno and boom, he's bleeding. It's going to be a flyweight decision, three rounds, probably 29-28.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Morales · DecMoreno · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 30:35

Current pick evidence

Picked: Brandon Moreno · Dec

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Brandon Moreno by decision.

“I'm going to go Moreno here by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Moreno · DecMoreno · Dec R3HitHitNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 26:34

Current pick evidence

Picked: Brandon Moreno · Dec

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Brandon Moreno by decision.

“I'm going to go Moreno by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Moreno · DecMoreno · Dec R3HitHitNot called
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 56:24

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joseph Morales · Dec

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Joseph Morales by decision.

“Going to pick Morales to win here via decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Morales · DecMoreno · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Andrew Richardson58 resolved calls
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joseph Morales · Dec

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

MMA Mania's Noche UFC 4 preview has Andrew Richardson picking Joseph Morales by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Morales · DecMoreno · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 9:57

Current pick evidence

Picked: Joseph Morales

Fight result: Brandon Moreno · Decision

Picks Joseph Morales to win.

“I'm going to pick Joseph Morales to come out here and defeat Brandon Moreno.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Morales · to winMoreno · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

4 of 10 called the winner.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Moreno · Decision · R3

Closest probability Gemini put 60% on Moreno.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
42% Moreno
58% Morales
PickMorales · Submission · R2ActualMoreno · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missed
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
47% Moreno
53% Morales
PickMorales · Submission · R2ActualMoreno · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missed
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
60% Moreno
40% Morales
PickMoreno · DecisionActualMoreno · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing round
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 5 Sep, 6 days before the fight

2 of 3 models pick Morales

Gemini picks Moreno; ChatGPT and Claude pick Morales.

Method mix differs most for Submission: 24% (Gemini) to 37% (Claude), a 13-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Morales by submission in round 2

    Win probability: Moreno 42%, Morales 58%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Morales by submission in round 2

    Win probability: Moreno 47%, Morales 53%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    Low confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Moreno by decision

    Win probability: Moreno 60%, Morales 40%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence
More detail5 areas differ

The models differ on winner, finish method, round timing, confidence, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 2Round 2—
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 2Round 2—

ChatGPT

Pick

Morales by submission in round 2

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Moreno 42%, Morales 58%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 13% overall: Moreno 6%, Morales 7%
Submission, 31% overall: Moreno 5%, Morales 26%
Decision, 56% overall: Moreno 31%, Morales 25%

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Morales by submission in round 2

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Moreno 47%, Morales 53%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 18% overall: Moreno 8%, Morales 10%
Submission, 37% overall: Moreno 13%, Morales 24%
Decision, 45% overall: Moreno 26%, Morales 19%

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Moreno by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Moreno 60%, Morales 40%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 20% overall: Moreno 12%, Morales 8%
Submission, 24% overall: Moreno 10%, Morales 14%
Decision, 56% overall: Moreno 38%, Morales 18%

Version not reported · 5 Sep50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.