Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado  12 Sep 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, US

Tommy McMillen defeats Marwan Rahiki by unanimous decision

Win Tommy McMillen 12-0-0
Loss Marwan Rahiki 9-1-0
Watch the fight
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

McMillen vs Rahiki — Featherweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Predictions summary

Fight details

The verified result and matchup record are available above. Analysis and a fight narrative have not been published for this bout.

Records & career stats
McMillen vs Rahiki
McMillen Rahiki
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 11.13 6.69
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 58% 58%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 5.06 5.91
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 79% 38%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 90% 100%
11-0-0
Record
9-0-0
5-0 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
United States
Nationality
Morocco
28
Age
24
1.83 m
Height — McMillen leads
1.73 m
188 cm
Reach — McMillen leads
183 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
90%
Finish rateFinish % — Rahiki leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
100%
5
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Rahiki leads
8
5
Wins by submissionSub wins — McMillen leads
1
11.13
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — McMillen leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.69
5.06
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — McMillen leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.91
58%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
58%
79%
Takedown defenseTD def. — McMillen leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
38%
11:52
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
08:45
Red Hawk Academy
Team
Lion’s Den Academy

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (1)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 4:03

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by TKO; the captions render the matchup surnames as McMillan and Rikiki/Rakhiki.

“lead to another McMillan TKO win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 28:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · Dec

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by Decision.

“I think Tommy McMillen's going to win this by 29-28 decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 29:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by TKO in round 2.

“I'm going with Tommy McMillen TKO'ing Marwan Rahiki in the second round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 29:57

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · Dec

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by decision.

“Tommy McMillen gets it done. Decision win over Marwan Rahiki.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 37:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by TKO.

“I'm going to go McMillen. TKO second or third round is what I think is going to happen here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 27:53

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by knockout in round 2.

“Give me Tommy McMillen by second-round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Kunath
Hear it — 8:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · Sub

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by submission.

“I think Tommy Mac Millan wins by submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 52.6% 10 9
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (39 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 15:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen to win.

“Give me Tommy McMillen to come out here and hand Marwan Rahiki his first loss.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 15:01

Current pick evidence

Picked: Marwan Rahiki · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Marwan Rahiki by knockout in round 1.

“I'm going to go with Marwan Rahiki by KO in the first round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 52:29

Current pick evidence

Picked: Marwan Rahiki · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Marwan Rahiki by knockout in round 2.

“I'm going to go with round two KO/TKO for Marwan Rahiki.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)

Analyst picks: MMA Lock of the Night Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; MMA JOEY Hit; The MMA Guru Hit; DFS By The Numbers Hit; Kunath Hit; HopperMMA Miss; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Half The Battle Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
MMA Lock of the Night99 resolved calls
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 4:03

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by TKO; the captions render the matchup surnames as McMillan and Rikiki/Rakhiki.

“lead to another McMillan TKO win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. McMillen · KO/TKOMcMillen · Dec R3HitMissNot called
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 28:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · Dec

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by Decision.

“I think Tommy McMillen's going to win this by 29-28 decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. McMillen · DecMcMillen · Dec R3HitHitNot called
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 29:16

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by TKO in round 2.

“I'm going with Tommy McMillen TKO'ing Marwan Rahiki in the second round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. McMillen · KO/TKO · R2McMillen · Dec R3HitMissMiss
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 29:57

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · Dec

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by decision.

“Tommy McMillen gets it done. Decision win over Marwan Rahiki.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. McMillen · DecMcMillen · Dec R3HitHitNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 37:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by TKO.

“I'm going to go McMillen. TKO second or third round is what I think is going to happen here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. McMillen · KO/TKOMcMillen · Dec R3HitMissNot called
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 27:53

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by knockout in round 2.

“Give me Tommy McMillen by second-round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. McMillen · KO/TKO · R2McMillen · Dec R3HitMissMiss
Kunath39 resolved calls
Kunath
Hear it — 8:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen · Sub

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen by submission.

“I think Tommy Mac Millan wins by submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 52.6% 10 9
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (39 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. McMillen · SubMcMillen · Dec R3HitMissNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 15:01

Current pick evidence

Picked: Marwan Rahiki · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Marwan Rahiki by knockout in round 1.

“I'm going to go with Marwan Rahiki by KO in the first round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Rahiki · KO/TKO · R1McMillen · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 52:29

Current pick evidence

Picked: Marwan Rahiki · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Marwan Rahiki by knockout in round 2.

“I'm going to go with round two KO/TKO for Marwan Rahiki.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 39.5%. Rahiki · KO/TKO · R2McMillen · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 15:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tommy McMillen

Fight result: Tommy McMillen · Decision

Picks Tommy McMillen to win.

“Give me Tommy McMillen to come out here and hand Marwan Rahiki his first loss.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 60.5%. McMillen · to winMcMillen · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called

8 of 10 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual McMillen · Decision · R3

Closest probability ChatGPT put 58% on McMillen.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
58% McMillen
42% Rahiki
PickMcMillen · KO/TKO · R2ActualMcMillen · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
55% McMillen
45% Rahiki
PickMcMillen · KO/TKO · R2ActualMcMillen · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
57% McMillen
43% Rahiki
PickMcMillen · DecisionActualMcMillen · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 5 Sep, 6 days before the fight

All 3 models pick McMillen

They differ on how the fight ends, with win chances from 55% (Claude) to 58% (ChatGPT).

Method mix differs most for KO/TKO: 51% (Gemini) to 75% (Claude), a 24-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick McMillen by KO/TKO in round 2

    Win probability: McMillen 58%, Rahiki 42%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick McMillen by KO/TKO in round 2

    Win probability: McMillen 55%, Rahiki 45%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    Low confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick McMillen by decision

    Win probability: McMillen 57%, Rahiki 43%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    Low confidence
More detail4 areas differ

The models differ on finish method, round timing, confidence, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 2Round 2—
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 2Round 2—

ChatGPT

Pick

McMillen by KO/TKO in round 2

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: McMillen 58%, Rahiki 42%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 68% overall: McMillen 34%, Rahiki 34%
Submission, 11% overall: McMillen 8%, Rahiki 3%
Decision, 21% overall: McMillen 16%, Rahiki 5%

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

McMillen by KO/TKO in round 2

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: McMillen 55%, Rahiki 45%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 75% overall: McMillen 40%, Rahiki 35%
Submission, 6% overall: McMillen 3%, Rahiki 3%
Decision, 19% overall: McMillen 12%, Rahiki 7%

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

McMillen by decision

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: McMillen 57%, Rahiki 43%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 51% overall: McMillen 24%, Rahiki 27%
Submission, 10% overall: McMillen 5%, Rahiki 5%
Decision, 39% overall: McMillen 28%, Rahiki 11%

Version not reported · 5 Sep50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.