Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado  12 Sep 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, US

Curtis Blaydes defeats Waldo Cortes Acosta by unanimous decision

Loss Waldo Cortes Acosta 17-4-0
Win Curtis Blaydes 20-6-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Cortes Acosta vs Blaydes — Heavyweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Predictions summary

Fight details

The verified result and matchup record are available above. Analysis and a fight narrative have not been published for this bout.

Records & career stats
Cortes Acosta vs Blaydes
Cortes Acosta Blaydes
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 5.03 3.99
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 55% 55%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.44 2.70
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 70% 35%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 59% 68%
17-3-0
Record
19-6-0
3-2 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2-3 last 5
Dominican Republic
Nationality
United States
34
Age
35
1.93 m
Height
1.93 m
198 cm
Reach — Blaydes leads
203 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
59%
Finish rateFinish % — Blaydes leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
68%
9
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Blaydes leads
13
1
Wins by submissionSub wins — Cortes Acosta leads
0
5.03
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Cortes Acosta leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.99
3.44
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Blaydes leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.70
55%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
55%
70%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Cortes Acosta leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
35%
11:00
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
09:29

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 3:26

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by knockout; the captions contain minor surname variants.

“land a knockout to get the win over Curtis Blaydes.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 25:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by KO in round 1.

“I'm going to go with Waldo Cortes Acosta knocking out Curtis Blaydes in the first round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 23:20

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by knockout in round 2.

“I'm going Waldo Cortes Acosta to get it done. Second-round KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 27:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by TKO.

“I'm going to go with Waldo Cortes Acosta by TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 23:33

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by knockout in round 2.

“Give me Waldo Cortes Acosta by second-round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
We Want Picks
Hear it — 109:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win.

“I'm going to Waldo Cortez Acosta.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 42:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win.

“I'm going to go with Waldo.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · Dec

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

MMA Mania's Noche UFC 4 preview has Andrew Richardson picking Waldo Cortes-Acosta by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 20:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by KO.

“Waldo Cortes Acosta is going to come out here and knock out Curtis Blaydes.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 24:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Curtis Blaydes · Dec

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Curtis Blaydes by Decision.

“I trust him to win this by decision. I'm going with Curtis Blaydes.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)

Analyst picks: MMA Lock of the Night Miss; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Miss; MMA JOEY Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; We Want Picks Miss; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Andrew Richardson Miss; Half The Battle Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
MMA Lock of the Night99 resolved calls
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 3:26

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by knockout; the captions contain minor surname variants.

“land a knockout to get the win over Curtis Blaydes.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Cortes Acosta · KO/TKOBlaydes · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 24:52

Current pick evidence

Picked: Curtis Blaydes · Dec

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Curtis Blaydes by Decision.

“I trust him to win this by decision. I'm going with Curtis Blaydes.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 38.5%. Blaydes · DecBlaydes · Dec R3HitHitNot called
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 25:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO · Round 1

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by KO in round 1.

“I'm going to go with Waldo Cortes Acosta knocking out Curtis Blaydes in the first round.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO · R1Blaydes · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 23:20

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by knockout in round 2.

“I'm going Waldo Cortes Acosta to get it done. Second-round KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO · R2Blaydes · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 27:27

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by TKO.

“I'm going to go with Waldo Cortes Acosta by TKO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Cortes Acosta · KO/TKOBlaydes · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 23:33

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by knockout in round 2.

“Give me Waldo Cortes Acosta by second-round knockout.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO · R2Blaydes · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
We Want Picks145 resolved calls
We Want Picks
Hear it — 109:32

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win.

“I'm going to Waldo Cortez Acosta.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 93 52
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 34.5% 10 19
View full track record (145 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Cortes Acosta · to winBlaydes · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 42:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win.

“I'm going to go with Waldo.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Cortes Acosta · to winBlaydes · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Andrew Richardson58 resolved calls
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · Dec

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

MMA Mania's Noche UFC 4 preview has Andrew Richardson picking Waldo Cortes-Acosta by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Cortes Acosta · DecBlaydes · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 20:15

Current pick evidence

Picked: Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO

Fight result: Curtis Blaydes · Decision

Picks Waldo Cortes Acosta by KO.

“Waldo Cortes Acosta is going to come out here and knock out Curtis Blaydes.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 61.5%. Cortes Acosta · KO/TKOBlaydes · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

Only 1 of 10 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Blaydes · Decision · R3

Closest probability Claude put 40% on Blaydes.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
66% Cortes Acosta
34% Blaydes
PickCortes Acosta · DecisionActualBlaydes · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
60% Cortes Acosta
40% Blaydes
PickCortes Acosta · KO/TKO · R2ActualBlaydes · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
62% Cortes Acosta
38% Blaydes
PickCortes Acosta · DecisionActualBlaydes · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 5 Sep, 6 days before the fight

All 3 models pick Cortes Acosta

They differ on how the fight ends, with win chances from 60% (Claude) to 66% (ChatGPT).

Method mix differs most for Decision: 44% (Claude) to 57% (ChatGPT), a 13-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Cortes Acosta by decision

    Win probability: Cortes Acosta 66%, Blaydes 34%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO in round 2

    Win probability: Cortes Acosta 60%, Blaydes 40%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Cortes Acosta by decision

    Win probability: Cortes Acosta 62%, Blaydes 38%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence
More detail3 areas differ

The models differ on finish method, round timing, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round—Round 2—
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round—Round 2—

ChatGPT

Pick

Cortes Acosta by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Cortes Acosta 66%, Blaydes 34%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 41% overall: Cortes Acosta 31%, Blaydes 10%
Submission, 2% overall: Cortes Acosta 1%, Blaydes 1%
Decision, 57% overall: Cortes Acosta 34%, Blaydes 23%

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO in round 2

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Cortes Acosta 60%, Blaydes 40%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 52% overall: Cortes Acosta 38%, Blaydes 14%
Submission, 4% overall: Cortes Acosta 3%, Blaydes 1%
Decision, 44% overall: Cortes Acosta 19%, Blaydes 25%

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Cortes Acosta by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Cortes Acosta 62%, Blaydes 38%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 45% overall: Cortes Acosta 28%, Blaydes 17%
Submission, 3% overall: Cortes Acosta 1%, Blaydes 2%
Decision, 52% overall: Cortes Acosta 33%, Blaydes 19%

Version not reported · 5 Sep50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.