Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado  12 Sep 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, US

Tim Elliott defeats Edgar Chairez by unanimous decision

Win Tim Elliott 22-14-1
Loss Edgar Chairez 14-7-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Elliott vs Chairez — Catchweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Predictions summary

Fight details

The verified result and matchup record are available above. Analysis and a fight narrative have not been published for this bout.

Records & career stats
Elliott vs Chairez
21-14-1
Record
14-6-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
United States
Nationality
Mexico
39
Age
30
1.70 m
Height
1.70 m
168 cm
Reach — Chairez leads
180 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
—
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
93%
3
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Chairez leads
4
8
Wins by submissionSub wins — Chairez leads
9
3.55
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Chairez leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.78
3.05
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Elliott leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.64
56%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Elliott leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
46%
59%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Elliott leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
50%
12:23
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
09:45

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 6:46

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tim Elliott · KO/TKO

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by KO; the caption garbles the surname.

“And honestly, I have a hot take here. I'm picking Edgar Shyz by KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 72.4% 21 8
  • Method Accuracy 73.3% 11 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (29 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 16:14

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tim Elliott · Dec

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Tim Elliott by Decision.

“I think Tim Elliott's going to win this by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 19:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tim Elliott · Dec

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Tim Elliott by Decision.

“Tim Elliott by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 36:02

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tim Elliott · Dec

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Tim Elliott by decision.

“I'm going to go with the veteran Tim Elliott.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 2:46

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez · Sub

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by submission.

“Chairez sinking in a submission and forcing the tap.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 17:53

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez · Sub · Round 1

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by submission in round 1.

“I think he subs Elliott, first-round sub.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 20:53

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez · KO/TKO

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by TKO.

“I'm going to say that Edgar Chairez catches Tim Elliott by TKO here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 17:41

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by submission in round 2.

“I think Chairez wins. I'll take him by second-round submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Kunath
Hear it — 15:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez · Sub

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by submission.

“Give me Edgar Chairez by submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 52.6% 10 9
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (39 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 12:58

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez to win.

“I'm going to go Edgar Chairez.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 27:04

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez to win.

“I'm going to pick Edgar Chairez to win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)

Analyst picks: MMA Lock of the Night Miss; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; MMA JOEY Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; Kunath Miss; HopperMMA Miss; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Half The Battle Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
MMA Lock of the Night99 resolved calls
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 2:46

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez · Sub

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by submission.

“Chairez sinking in a submission and forcing the tap.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Chairez · SubElliott · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Jimbo Ortega MMA29 resolved calls
Jimbo Ortega MMA
Hear it — 6:46

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tim Elliott · KO/TKO

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by KO; the caption garbles the surname.

“And honestly, I have a hot take here. I'm picking Edgar Shyz by KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 72.4% 21 8
  • Method Accuracy 73.3% 11 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (29 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 35.5%. Elliott · KO/TKOElliott · Dec R3HitMissNot called
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 16:14

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tim Elliott · Dec

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Tim Elliott by Decision.

“I think Tim Elliott's going to win this by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 35.5%. Elliott · DecElliott · Dec R3HitHitNot called
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 19:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tim Elliott · Dec

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Tim Elliott by Decision.

“Tim Elliott by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 35.5%. Elliott · DecElliott · Dec R3HitHitNot called
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 17:53

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez · Sub · Round 1

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by submission in round 1.

“I think he subs Elliott, first-round sub.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Chairez · Sub · R1Elliott · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 20:53

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez · KO/TKO

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by TKO.

“I'm going to say that Edgar Chairez catches Tim Elliott by TKO here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Chairez · KO/TKOElliott · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 17:41

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by submission in round 2.

“I think Chairez wins. I'll take him by second-round submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Chairez · Sub · R2Elliott · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Kunath39 resolved calls
Kunath
Hear it — 15:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez · Sub

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez by submission.

“Give me Edgar Chairez by submission.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 52.6% 10 9
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (39 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Chairez · SubElliott · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 12:58

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez to win.

“I'm going to go Edgar Chairez.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Chairez · to winElliott · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 36:02

Current pick evidence

Picked: Tim Elliott · Dec

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Tim Elliott by decision.

“I'm going to go with the veteran Tim Elliott.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 35.5%. Elliott · DecElliott · Dec R3HitHitNot called
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 27:04

Current pick evidence

Picked: Edgar Chairez

Fight result: Tim Elliott · Decision

Picks Edgar Chairez to win.

“I'm going to pick Edgar Chairez to win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 64.5%. Chairez · to winElliott · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

4 of 11 called the winner.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Elliott · Decision · R3

Closest probability Gemini put 35% on Elliott.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
31% Elliott
69% Chairez
PickChairez · Submission · R2ActualElliott · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
32% Elliott
68% Chairez
PickChairez · Submission · R1ActualElliott · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
35% Elliott
65% Chairez
PickChairez · Submission · R2ActualElliott · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 5 Sep, 6 days before the fight

All 3 models pick Chairez

All three expect a win by submission, with win chances from 65% (Gemini) to 69% (ChatGPT).

Method mix differs most for Decision: 35% (Claude) to 46% (Gemini), a 11-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Chairez by submission in round 2

    Win probability: Elliott 31%, Chairez 69%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Chairez by submission in round 1

    Win probability: Elliott 32%, Chairez 68%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Chairez by submission in round 2

    Win probability: Elliott 35%, Chairez 65%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence
More detail2 areas differ

The models differ on round timing, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 2Round 1Round 2
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
RoundRound 2Round 1Round 2

ChatGPT

Pick

Chairez by submission in round 2

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Elliott 31%, Chairez 69%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 15% overall: Elliott 3%, Chairez 12%
Submission, 40% overall: Elliott 10%, Chairez 30%
Decision, 45% overall: Elliott 18%, Chairez 27%

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Chairez by submission in round 1

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Elliott 32%, Chairez 68%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 18% overall: Elliott 5%, Chairez 13%
Submission, 47% overall: Elliott 12%, Chairez 35%
Decision, 35% overall: Elliott 15%, Chairez 20%

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Chairez by submission in round 2

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Elliott 35%, Chairez 65%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 17% overall: Elliott 3%, Chairez 14%
Submission, 37% overall: Elliott 9%, Chairez 28%
Decision, 46% overall: Elliott 23%, Chairez 23%

Version not reported · 5 Sep50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.