Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado  12 Sep 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, US

Alexa Grasso defeats Manon Fiorot by unanimous decision

Loss Manon Fiorot 13-3-0
Win Alexa Grasso 18-5-1
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Fiorot vs Grasso — Women's Flyweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Predictions summary

Fight details

The verified result and matchup record are available above. Analysis and a fight narrative have not been published for this bout.

Records & career stats
Fiorot vs Grasso
Fiorot Grasso
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 4.61 4.19
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 50% 60%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 3.26 3.78
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 62% 55%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 69% 39%
13-2-0
Record
17-5-1
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2-2-1 last 5
France
Nationality
Mexico
36
Age
32
1.70 m
Height — Fiorot leads
1.65 m
165 cm
Reach — Grasso leads
168 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
69%
Finish rateFinish % — Fiorot leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
39%
7
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Fiorot leads
5
0
Wins by submissionSub wins — Grasso leads
2
4.61
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Fiorot leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.19
3.26
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Fiorot leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.78
50%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Grasso leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
60%
62%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Fiorot leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
55%
12:29
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
14:56

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 3:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by decision.

“winning this fight on the scorecards.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
TheWeasle
Hear it — 27:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Manon Fiorot decisioning Alexa Grasso.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 25:35

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by decision.

“I think Manon Fiorot gets it done. Probably decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 29:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by Decision.

“So, I'm going to go Manon Fiorot. Her movement, even like just things like her sidekick to the body on Grasso, I can see her edging out a 29-28 decision here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 25:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by decision.

“I'm going to go with Manon Fiorot to win this fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 45:38

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot to win.

“I'm switching my pick to Manon.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

MMA Mania's Noche UFC 4 preview has Andrew Richardson picking Manon Fiorot by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Half The Battle
Hear it — 17:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by Decision.

“As a pure pick, I'll take Manon Fiorot to come out here and win this decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 27:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexa Grasso · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Alexa Grasso by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Alexa Grasso by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Kunath
Hear it — 10:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexa Grasso · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Alexa Grasso by decision.

“Give me Alexa Grasso by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 52.6% 10 9
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (39 calls)
HopperMMA
Hear it — 24:03

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexa Grasso · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Alexa Grasso by decision.

“I'm going to go with Alexa Grasso to win this one by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)

Analyst picks: MMA Lock of the Night Miss; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Miss; MMA JOEY Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; DFS By The Numbers Miss; Kunath Hit; HopperMMA Hit; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Miss; Andrew Richardson Miss; Half The Battle Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
MMA Lock of the Night99 resolved calls
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 3:43

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by decision.

“winning this fight on the scorecards.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Fiorot · DecGrasso · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA
Hear it — 27:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexa Grasso · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Alexa Grasso by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Alexa Grasso by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Grasso · DecGrasso · Dec R3HitHitNot called
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle
Hear it — 27:31

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by Decision.

“I'm going to go with Manon Fiorot decisioning Alexa Grasso.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Fiorot · DecGrasso · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 25:35

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by decision.

“I think Manon Fiorot gets it done. Probably decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Fiorot · DecGrasso · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 29:42

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by Decision.

“So, I'm going to go Manon Fiorot. Her movement, even like just things like her sidekick to the body on Grasso, I can see her edging out a 29-28 decision here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Fiorot · DecGrasso · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers
Hear it — 25:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by decision.

“I'm going to go with Manon Fiorot to win this fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Fiorot · DecGrasso · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Kunath39 resolved calls
Kunath
Hear it — 10:50

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexa Grasso · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Alexa Grasso by decision.

“Give me Alexa Grasso by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 52.6% 10 9
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (39 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Grasso · DecGrasso · Dec R3HitHitNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA
Hear it — 24:03

Current pick evidence

Picked: Alexa Grasso · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Alexa Grasso by decision.

“I'm going to go with Alexa Grasso to win this one by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 29.5%. Grasso · DecGrasso · Dec R3HitHitNot called
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 45:38

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot to win.

“I'm switching my pick to Manon.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Fiorot · to winGrasso · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Andrew Richardson58 resolved calls
Andrew Richardson
Read source

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

MMA Mania's Noche UFC 4 preview has Andrew Richardson picking Manon Fiorot by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 34 24
  • Method Accuracy 70.6% 24 10
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (58 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Fiorot · DecGrasso · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 17:36

Current pick evidence

Picked: Manon Fiorot · Dec

Fight result: Alexa Grasso · Decision

Picks Manon Fiorot by Decision.

“As a pure pick, I'll take Manon Fiorot to come out here and win this decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 70.5%. Fiorot · DecGrasso · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

Only 3 of 11 called the upset.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Grasso · Decision · R3

Closest probability Claude put 37% on Grasso.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
68% Fiorot
32% Grasso
PickFiorot · DecisionActualGrasso · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
63% Fiorot
37% Grasso
PickFiorot · DecisionActualGrasso · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
65% Fiorot
35% Grasso
PickFiorot · DecisionActualGrasso · Decision · R3
WinnerMissMethodNot applicable — the winner call missedRoundNot applicable — the winner call missedHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 5 Sep, 6 days before the fight

All 3 models pick Fiorot

All three expect a win by decision, with win chances from 63% (Claude) to 68% (ChatGPT).

Method mix differs most for Decision: 53% (Claude) to 76% (ChatGPT), a 23-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Fiorot by decision

    Win probability: Fiorot 68%, Grasso 32%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence

  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Fiorot by decision

    Win probability: Fiorot 63%, Grasso 37%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence

  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Fiorot by decision

    Win probability: Fiorot 65%, Grasso 35%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence
More detail1 area differs

The models differ on probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———

ChatGPT

Pick

Fiorot by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Fiorot 68%, Grasso 32%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 18% overall: Fiorot 13%, Grasso 5%
Submission, 6% overall: Fiorot 1%, Grasso 5%
Decision, 76% overall: Fiorot 54%, Grasso 22%

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Fiorot by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Fiorot 63%, Grasso 37%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 37% overall: Fiorot 27%, Grasso 10%
Submission, 10% overall: Fiorot 3%, Grasso 7%
Decision, 53% overall: Fiorot 33%, Grasso 20%

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Fiorot by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Fiorot 65%, Grasso 35%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 16% overall: Fiorot 12%, Grasso 4%
Submission, 10% overall: Fiorot 1%, Grasso 9%
Decision, 74% overall: Fiorot 52%, Grasso 22%

Version not reported · 5 Sep50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.