Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado  12 Sep 2026 · Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale, Arizona, US

Rongzhu defeats Rafa Garcia by unanimous decision

Loss Rafa Garcia 19-5-0
Win Rongzhu 29-6-0
Unanimous decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Garcia vs Rongzhu — Lightweight · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Predictions summary

Fight details

The verified result and matchup record are available above. Analysis and a fight narrative have not been published for this bout.

Records & career stats
19-4-0
Record
28-6-0
—
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
—
Mexico
Nationality
China
32
Age
26
1.70 m
Height — Rongzhu leads
1.75 m
178 cm
Reach — Rongzhu leads
180 cm
—
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
—
—
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
—
2
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Rongzhu leads
16
8
Wins by submissionSub wins — Garcia leads
6
4.33
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Rongzhu leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.05
4.68
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Garcia leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.38
61%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Garcia leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
54%
77%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Rongzhu leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
85%
13:40
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
11:33

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

MMA JOEY

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rafa Garcia · Dec

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rafa Garcia by decision.

“I'll go Rafa Garcia. I'll say 29-28 decision win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
The MMA Guru

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rafa Garcia

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rafa Garcia to win.

“I'm going to go with Rafa Garcia.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
HopperMMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rafa Garcia · Dec

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rafa Garcia by decision.

“I'm going to go with Rafa Garcia by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Live Dogs MMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu · KO/TKO

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rongzhu by KO.

“Give me Rongzhu by KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 76.9% 10 3
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 3
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
View full track record (13 calls)
MMA Lock of the Night

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu · Dec

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rongzhu by decision; the captions render the name as Rong Zhu.

“leading to Rong Zhu winning this fight on the scorecards.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Jimbo Ortega MMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu · Dec

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rong Zhu by decision; the caption garbles the name, but the preceding matchup context identifies Rafa Garcia vs Rong Zhu.

“So, get me wrong, Zu. I am going to go with decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 72.4% 21 8
  • Method Accuracy 73.3% 11 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (29 calls)
Bedtime MMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu · Dec

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rongzhu by Decision.

“I'm going to say Rongzhu wins this one by decision, but it's close.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
TheWeasle

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu · Dec

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rongzhu by Decision.

“I think Rongzhu wins the fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
DFS By The Numbers

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu · Dec

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rongzhu by decision.

“I'm going to go with Rongzhu to win this fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Kunath

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu · Dec

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rongzhu by decision.

“Give me Rongzhu by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 52.6% 10 9
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (39 calls)
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 17:53

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rongzhu to win.

“Give me Rongzhu here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Half The Battle

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rongzhu to win.

“I got Rongzhu to come out here and defeat Rafa Garcia.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)

Analyst picks: Live Dogs MMA Hit; MMA Lock of the Night Hit; Jimbo Ortega MMA Hit; Bedtime MMA Hit; TheWeasle Hit; MMA JOEY Miss; The MMA Guru Miss; DFS By The Numbers Hit; Kunath Hit; HopperMMA Miss; MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG) Hit; Half The Battle Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Live Dogs MMA13 resolved calls
Live Dogs MMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu · KO/TKO

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rongzhu by KO.

“Give me Rongzhu by KO.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 76.9% 10 3
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 3
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
View full track record (13 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rongzhu · KO/TKORongzhu · Dec R3HitMissNot called
MMA Lock of the Night99 resolved calls
MMA Lock of the Night

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu · Dec

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rongzhu by decision; the captions render the name as Rong Zhu.

“leading to Rong Zhu winning this fight on the scorecards.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rongzhu · DecRongzhu · Dec R3HitHitNot called
Jimbo Ortega MMA29 resolved calls
Jimbo Ortega MMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu · Dec

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rong Zhu by decision; the caption garbles the name, but the preceding matchup context identifies Rafa Garcia vs Rong Zhu.

“So, get me wrong, Zu. I am going to go with decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 72.4% 21 8
  • Method Accuracy 73.3% 11 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (29 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rongzhu · DecRongzhu · Dec R3HitHitNot called
Bedtime MMA171 resolved calls
Bedtime MMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu · Dec

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rongzhu by Decision.

“I'm going to say Rongzhu wins this one by decision, but it's close.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.8% 121 50
  • Method Accuracy 62.9% 56 33
  • Round Accuracy 38.5% 10 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 48.5% 16 17
View full track record (171 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rongzhu · DecRongzhu · Dec R3HitHitNot called
TheWeasle163 resolved calls
TheWeasle

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu · Dec

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rongzhu by Decision.

“I think Rongzhu wins the fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.6% 115 48
  • Method Accuracy 61.8% 47 29
  • Round Accuracy 36.5% 19 33
  • Underdog Accuracy 52.9% 9 8
View full track record (163 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rongzhu · DecRongzhu · Dec R3HitHitNot called
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rafa Garcia · Dec

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rafa Garcia by decision.

“I'll go Rafa Garcia. I'll say 29-28 decision win.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Garcia · DecRongzhu · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rafa Garcia

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rafa Garcia to win.

“I'm going to go with Rafa Garcia.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Garcia · to winRongzhu · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
DFS By The Numbers146 resolved calls
DFS By The Numbers

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu · Dec

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rongzhu by decision.

“I'm going to go with Rongzhu to win this fight by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.4% 94 52
  • Method Accuracy 58.5% 48 34
  • Round Accuracy 35.9% 14 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 35.0% 7 13
View full track record (146 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rongzhu · DecRongzhu · Dec R3HitHitNot called
Kunath39 resolved calls
Kunath

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu · Dec

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rongzhu by decision.

“Give me Rongzhu by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 52.6% 10 9
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (39 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rongzhu · DecRongzhu · Dec R3HitHitNot called
HopperMMA121 resolved calls
HopperMMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rafa Garcia · Dec

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rafa Garcia by decision.

“I'm going to go with Rafa Garcia by decision.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 77 44
  • Method Accuracy 64.6% 42 23
  • Round Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.3% 5 14
View full track record (121 calls)
Historic market Underdog call, market price 41.5%. Garcia · DecRongzhu · Dec R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)69 resolved calls
MMA Prediction Guru (MMAPG)
Source unavailable — 17:53

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rongzhu to win.

“Give me Rongzhu here.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 59.4% 41 28
  • Method Accuracy 57.7% 15 11
  • Round Accuracy 12.5% 1 7
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.8% 4 9
View full track record (69 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rongzhu · to winRongzhu · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rongzhu

Fight result: Rongzhu · Decision

Picks Rongzhu to win.

“I got Rongzhu to come out here and defeat Rafa Garcia.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Historic market Favourite call, market price 58.5%. Rongzhu · to winRongzhu · Dec R3HitNot calledNot called

9 of 12 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Rongzhu · Decision · R3

Closest probability ChatGPT put 59% on Rongzhu.

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
41% Garcia
59% Rongzhu
PickRongzhu · DecisionActualRongzhu · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
42% Garcia
58% Rongzhu
PickRongzhu · KO/TKO · R2ActualRongzhu · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodMissRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
44% Garcia
56% Rongzhu
PickRongzhu · DecisionActualRongzhu · Decision · R3
WinnerHitMethodHitRoundNot applicable — decisions have no finishing roundHistoric market favouriteHistoric market favourite: FavouriteThe selected fighter had the higher market-implied chance of winning.Historic market favourite: favourite call
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 5 Sep, 6 days before the fight

All 3 models pick Rongzhu

They differ on how the fight ends, with win chances from 56% (Gemini) to 59% (ChatGPT).

Method mix differs most for Decision: 43% (Claude) to 67% (Gemini), a 24-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Rongzhu by decision

    Win probability: Garcia 41%, Rongzhu 59%.

    gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence
  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Rongzhu by KO/TKO in round 2

    Win probability: Garcia 42%, Rongzhu 58%.

    claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep

    Medium confidence
  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Rongzhu by decision

    Win probability: Garcia 44%, Rongzhu 56%.

    Version not reported · 5 Sep

    Low confidence
More detail4 areas differ

The models differ on finish method, round timing, confidence, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round—Round 2—
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round—Round 2—

ChatGPT

Pick

Rongzhu by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Garcia 41%, Rongzhu 59%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 29% overall: Garcia 7%, Rongzhu 22%
Submission, 14% overall: Garcia 9%, Rongzhu 5%
Decision, 57% overall: Garcia 25%, Rongzhu 32%

gpt-5.6-sol · 5 Sep47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Rongzhu by KO/TKO in round 2

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Garcia 42%, Rongzhu 58%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 40% overall: Garcia 10%, Rongzhu 30%
Submission, 17% overall: Garcia 7%, Rongzhu 10%
Decision, 43% overall: Garcia 25%, Rongzhu 18%

claude-sonnet-5 · 5 Sep46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Rongzhu by decision

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Garcia 44%, Rongzhu 56%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 20% overall: Garcia 5%, Rongzhu 15%
Submission, 13% overall: Garcia 8%, Rongzhu 5%
Decision, 67% overall: Garcia 31%, Rongzhu 36%

Version not reported · 5 Sep50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.