"I don't have wins by decision." Melissa Gatto (@MelissaGattoUFC) looks to add a fourth UFC knockout to her collection against Ernesta Kareckaite at #UFCVegas122. Fight By Fight Preview ➡️ https://t.co/QO9ltlM6Xr
View video on X ↗UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Draw — Ernesta Kareckaitė vs Melissa Gatto
Draw · majority
Round 3 · 5:00
Kareckaitė vs Gatto — Women's Flyweight · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Predictions summary
Analyst Picks
(34) 63%
37% (20)
AI Prediction
45%
55%
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Kareckaitė
Kareckaitė is 6-2-1 with two knockouts and four decisions, and her tape is built on volume: 7.28 significant strikes landed per minute against 6.47 absorbed. At 1.75 m with a 180 cm reach she is the longer fighter against Gatto's 1.65 m and 175 cm, and her 81% takedown defense is the best defensive figure on either side against an opponent who averages 1.77 takedowns.
Case for Gatto
Gatto is 9-3-2 with four submissions, three knockouts and two decisions, and her listed style is jiu-jitsu, with a 1.77 takedown average and a 0.39 submission average. She lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy and defends 54%. She comes off a majority-decision loss to Dione Barbosa at UFC Fight Night in April 2026, and her last win was a third-round body-punch TKO of Tamires Vidal in May 2024.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Gatto's 1.77 takedown average can beat Kareckaitė's 81% takedown defense.
- Volume against efficiency: Kareckaitė lands 7.28 strikes per minute at 42% accuracy, Gatto 3.47 at 50%.
- Reach: Kareckaitė's 180 cm and 1.75 m frame against Gatto's 175 cm and 1.65 m.
- Finishing paths: Gatto has seven stoppages in nine wins, while four of Kareckaitė's six wins went to a decision.
Records & career stats
- 7.28 3.47
- 50% 54%
- 6.47 2.67
- 81% 59%
- 33% 78%
- 6-2-1
- Record
- 9-3-2
- Not published
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 2-3 last 5
- Lithuania
- Nationality
- Brazil
- 28
- Age
- 30
- Not published
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- Not published
- 15:00
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 12:44
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Performance filters use calls resolved before this event.
(34) 63%
Kareckaitė
37% (20)
Gatto
Analyst picks: Tony Sink picks Kareckaitė; MMA Lock of the Night picks Gatto; Andy Lang picks Kareckaitė; Angelo Bodetti picks Kareckaitė; Mate Bersenadze picks Gatto; Gabriel Sheehan picks Kareckaitė; MMA JOEY picks Kareckaitė; The MMA Guru picks Kareckaitė; Drake Burden picks Kareckaitė; KennyOkoyeMMA picks Kareckaitė; JakeGerberMMA picks Kareckaitė; James Blissett picks Gatto; KingofCrackdown5095 picks Kareckaitė; Anthony Marro picks Kareckaitė; MMA OddsBreaker picks Kareckaitė; Nick Marro picks Gatto; James Lynch picks Gatto; Clenbat picks Kareckaitė; MMA Mathletes picks Gatto; Artem MMA picks Kareckaitė; Tim Edwards picks Kareckaitė; Marcel Dorff picks Kareckaitė; Adam Martin picks Kareckaitė; Mike Finch picks Kareckaitė; PickemMMA picks Gatto; Bert MMA picks Kareckaitė; Half The Battle picks Gatto; Jon Litterine picks Gatto; Daniel Vreeland picks Kareckaitė; Fight Productions picks Kareckaitė; Walk The Line MMA picks Kareckaitė; MikesMMAPicks picks Gatto; Garrett Kerman picks Gatto; Cole Shelton picks Gatto; Zain Bando picks Gatto; Chris Schweppe picks Gatto; Greedo Plays MMA picks Kareckaitė; Ground"N"Pound (Aaran) picks Kareckaitė; Kyle Marley picks Gatto; The MMA Yuda picks Kareckaitė; Uselyis picks Kareckaitė; Andrew Sumian picks Gatto; Matthew Petela picks Gatto; MMA JAWN picks Kareckaitė; Nick Kalikas picks Gatto; Drew Beaupre picks Kareckaitė; Jeff Fox picks Gatto; Matty Betss picks Kareckaitė; Alexander K. Lee picks Gatto; Brandon K picks Kareckaitė; Chris Cross picks Kareckaitė; Chris White picks Kareckaitė; FightStudy picks Kareckaitė; Carlos Cano picks Kareckaitė.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tony Sink
Tony Sink
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė Fight result: Draw Tony Sink explicitly picks Ernesta Kareckaite on the moneyline. The article body has an October 3 typo, but its exact UFC Vegas 122 matchup and October 6 byline identify the October 10 card. “Tony Sink's Pick: Take Ernesta Kareckaite (-101)” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · to win | Draw | Kareckaitė | Not called | Not called | |
| Tony Sink explicitly picks Ernesta Kareckaite on the moneyline. The article body has an October 3 typo, but its exact UFC Vegas 122 matchup and October 6 byline identify the October 10 card. “Tony Sink's Pick: Take Ernesta Kareckaite (-101)” Track record: winner called in 7 of 9 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MMA Lock of the Night
MMA Lock of the Night
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto Fight result: Draw “so I have to go with the Brazilian here and I think she ends up grinding this fight out and winning it on the scorecards” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · to win | Draw | Gatto | Not called | Not called | |
“so I have to go with the Brazilian here and I think she ends up grinding this fight out and winning it on the scorecards” Track record: winner called in 73 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Andy Lang
Andy Lang
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė Fight result: Draw Lang prefers Kareckaite at plus money in what he expects to be a close fight. “Kareckaite at +125 is the pick.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · to win | Draw | Kareckaitė | Not called | Not called | |
| Lang prefers Kareckaite at plus money in what he expects to be a close fight. “Kareckaite at +125 is the pick.” Track record: winner called in 7 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Angelo Bodetti
Angelo Bodetti
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė Fight result: Draw Angelo expects Kareckaitė to get back up from Gatto’s takedowns, stay busy and land accurately enough to win. “So, Ernesa Carrot Cake going to be the pick.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · to win | Draw | Kareckaitė | Not called | Not called | |
| Angelo expects Kareckaitė to get back up from Gatto’s takedowns, stay busy and land accurately enough to win. “So, Ernesa Carrot Cake going to be the pick.” Track record: winner called in 24 of 36 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Mate Bersenadze
Mate Bersenadze
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto · Dec Fight result: Draw Mate Bersenadze’s UFC Vegas 122 article names Melissa Gatto as his personal pick by decision. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · Dec | Draw | Gatto | Dec | Not called | |
| Mate Bersenadze’s UFC Vegas 122 article names Melissa Gatto as his personal pick by decision. Track record: winner called in 8 of 12 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Gabriel Sheehan
Gabriel Sheehan
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw Sheehan cites Kareckaite’s volume, range, and reach as advantages for an outpointing win. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
| Sheehan cites Kareckaite’s volume, range, and reach as advantages for an outpointing win. Track record: winner called in 4 of 6 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MMA JOEY
MMA JOEY
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw MMA JOEY leans toward Ernesta Kareckaitė by Decision. “i'm going to go Kurakate to outstrike her and stuff the takedowns and win via decision” * Analyst stated a lean Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
| MMA JOEY leans toward Ernesta Kareckaitė by Decision. “i'm going to go Kurakate to outstrike her and stuff the takedowns and win via decision” * Analyst stated a lean Track record: winner called in 71 of 107 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The MMA Guru
The MMA Guru
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė Fight result: Draw “i'm going with Anessa Carrier and uh I think her striking might be a problem at range she's way bigger than Melissa Gau she's got the range advantage i'm picking her to win” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · to win | Draw | Kareckaitė | Not called | Not called | |
“i'm going with Anessa Carrier and uh I think her striking might be a problem at range she's way bigger than Melissa Gau she's got the range advantage i'm picking her to win” Track record: winner called in 203 of 308 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Drake Burden
Drake Burden
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė Fight result: Draw Burden picks Ernesta Kareckaite over Melissa Gatto in the Rotowire UFC Vegas 122 preview. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · to win | Draw | Kareckaitė | Not called | Not called | |
| Burden picks Ernesta Kareckaite over Melissa Gatto in the Rotowire UFC Vegas 122 preview. Track record: winner called in 56 of 85 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
KennyOkoyeMMA
KennyOkoyeMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw “So I'm going Ernesta likely by decision” * likely Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
“So I'm going Ernesta likely by decision” * likely Track record: winner called in 42 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
JakeGerberMMA
JakeGerberMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw “i'm going to side with Kakate i think she gets it done by a competitive 29 to 28 decision” * States low confidence in either fighter. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
“i'm going to side with Kakate i think she gets it done by a competitive 29 to 28 decision” * States low confidence in either fighter. Track record: winner called in 83 of 127 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
James Blissett
James Blissett
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto · Dec Fight result: Draw “so yeah Melissa Gate Via decision would be my official prediction” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · Dec | Draw | Gatto | Dec | Not called | |
“so yeah Melissa Gate Via decision would be my official prediction” Track record: winner called in 35 of 54 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
KingofCrackdown5095
KingofCrackdown5095
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw KingofCrackdown5095 picks Ernesta Kareckaite to beat Melissa Gatto by decision, at low confidence. No round is predicted. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
| KingofCrackdown5095 picks Ernesta Kareckaite to beat Melissa Gatto by decision, at low confidence. No round is predicted. Track record: winner called in 25 of 39 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Anthony Marro
Anthony Marro
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw Last Word On MMA’s Anthony Marro column predicts Ernesta Kareckaite by Decision. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
| Last Word On MMA’s Anthony Marro column predicts Ernesta Kareckaite by Decision. Track record: winner called in 7 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MMA OddsBreaker
MMA OddsBreaker
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw “I think she just wins the decision I think that it's a great dog pick” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
“I think she just wins the decision I think that it's a great dog pick” Track record: winner called in 7 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Nick Marro
Nick Marro
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto · Dec Fight result: Draw Last Word On MMA’s Nick column predicts Melissa Gatto by Decision. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · Dec | Draw | Gatto | Dec | Not called | |
| Last Word On MMA’s Nick column predicts Melissa Gatto by Decision. Track record: winner called in 7 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
James Lynch
James Lynch
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto · Dec Fight result: Draw James Lynch picks Melissa Gatto to beat Ernesta Kareckaitė by decision. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · Dec | Draw | Gatto | Dec | Not called | |
| James Lynch picks Melissa Gatto to beat Ernesta Kareckaitė by decision. Track record: winner called in 27 of 44 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Clenbat
Clenbat
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė Fight result: Draw Clenbat picks Ernesta Kareckaite with medium confidence, citing her height and reach advantage. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · to win | Draw | Kareckaitė | Not called | Not called | |
| Clenbat picks Ernesta Kareckaite with medium confidence, citing her height and reach advantage. Track record: winner called in 22 of 36 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MMA Mathletes
MMA Mathletes
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto Fight result: Draw “i have Melissa Gado on this” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · to win | Draw | Gatto | Not called | Not called | |
“i have Melissa Gado on this” Track record: winner called in 20 of 33 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Artem MMA
Artem MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw Artem MMA picks the underdog Ernesta Kareckaite by decision. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
| Artem MMA picks the underdog Ernesta Kareckaite by decision. Track record: winner called in 43 of 71 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Tim Edwards
Tim Edwards
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw Edwards predicts Kareckaite does enough to win a decision and names her moneyline as his best bet. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
| Edwards predicts Kareckaite does enough to win a decision and names her moneyline as his best bet. Track record: winner called in 6 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Marcel Dorff
Marcel Dorff
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw Marcel Dorff picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to beat Melissa Gatto by decision. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
| Marcel Dorff picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to beat Melissa Gatto by decision. Track record: winner called in 17 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Adam Martin
Adam Martin
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw Adam Martin picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to beat Melissa Gatto by decision. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
| Adam Martin picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to beat Melissa Gatto by decision. Track record: winner called in 23 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Mike Finch
Mike Finch
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw Finch picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to win by decision, citing her reach and kickboxing. “give me Ernesta Carish Kate over Melissa Gate. She's so damn tall. Such a rangy kickboxer, good kicker. She probably ees out a decision here. Very unlikely that this fight finishes.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
| Finch picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to win by decision, citing her reach and kickboxing. “give me Ernesta Carish Kate over Melissa Gate. She's so damn tall. Such a rangy kickboxer, good kicker. She probably ees out a decision here. Very unlikely that this fight finishes.” Track record: winner called in 23 of 40 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
PickemMMA
PickemMMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto · Sub Fight result: Draw “So I'm guess I'm going to go with fucking Gateau by submission Give me Gateau by submission That's the fucking pick man” * Really really low confidence; believes Gatto has grappling advantages over Kareckaite Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · Sub | Draw | Gatto | Sub | Not called | |
“So I'm guess I'm going to go with fucking Gateau by submission Give me Gateau by submission That's the fucking pick man” * Really really low confidence; believes Gatto has grappling advantages over Kareckaite Track record: winner called in 12 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Bert MMA
Bert MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw Bert MMA's card recap has the underdog Ernesta Kareckaite winning by decision. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
| Bert MMA's card recap has the underdog Ernesta Kareckaite winning by decision. Track record: winner called in 13 of 23 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Half The Battle
Half The Battle
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto Fight result: Draw “historically speaking I've been a little bit more impressed with Gate So I'll pick her for that reason” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · to win | Draw | Gatto | Not called | Not called | |
“historically speaking I've been a little bit more impressed with Gate So I'll pick her for that reason” Track record: winner called in 55 of 98 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto Fight result: Draw Litterine’s bout-specific pick names Gatto as the winner; no method or round is stated. “UFC VEGAS 122 PICK: Gatto” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · to win | Draw | Gatto | Not called | Not called | |
| Litterine’s bout-specific pick names Gatto as the winner; no method or round is stated. “UFC VEGAS 122 PICK: Gatto” Track record: winner called in 54 of 97 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Daniel Vreeland
Daniel Vreeland
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė Fight result: Draw Daniel Vreeland explicitly selects Ernesta Kareckaite on the moneyline in his published UFC Vegas 122 prelim pick. “UFC Vegas 122 Prelim Pick: Ernesta Kareckaite ML (+110).” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · to win | Draw | Kareckaitė | Not called | Not called | |
| Daniel Vreeland explicitly selects Ernesta Kareckaite on the moneyline in his published UFC Vegas 122 prelim pick. “UFC Vegas 122 Prelim Pick: Ernesta Kareckaite ML (+110).” Track record: winner called in 16 of 29 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Fight Productions
Fight Productions
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw Fight Productions backs Ernesta Kareckaite by decision, expecting her volume to win over Melissa Gatto. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
| Fight Productions backs Ernesta Kareckaite by decision, expecting her volume to win over Melissa Gatto. Track record: winner called in 23 of 42 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Walk The Line MMA
Walk The Line MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw Walk The Line MMA sides with the underdog Ernesta Kareckaite on a 29-28 scorecard, expecting her striking to take two rounds. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
| Walk The Line MMA sides with the underdog Ernesta Kareckaite on a 29-28 scorecard, expecting her striking to take two rounds. Track record: winner called in 18 of 33 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MikesMMAPicks
MikesMMAPicks
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto Fight result: Draw The MMAOddsBreaker UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table selects Melissa Gatto. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · to win | Draw | Gatto | Not called | Not called | |
| The MMAOddsBreaker UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table selects Melissa Gatto. Track record: winner called in 19 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Garrett Kerman
Garrett Kerman
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto · Dec Fight result: Draw Garrett Kerman’s final recommendation is Melissa Gatto to win by decision. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · Dec | Draw | Gatto | Dec | Not called | |
| Garrett Kerman’s final recommendation is Melissa Gatto to win by decision. Track record: winner called in 7 of 13 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Cole Shelton
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto Fight result: Draw The MMAOddsBreaker UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table selects Melissa Gatto. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · to win | Draw | Gatto | Not called | Not called | |
| The MMAOddsBreaker UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table selects Melissa Gatto. Track record: winner called in 52 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Zain Bando
Zain Bando
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto Fight result: Draw MMAOddsBreaker's UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table lists Zain Bando selecting Melissa Gatto. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · to win | Draw | Gatto | Not called | Not called | |
| MMAOddsBreaker's UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table lists Zain Bando selecting Melissa Gatto. Track record: winner called in 12 of 23 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Chris Schweppe
Chris Schweppe
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto · Sub · Round 2 Fight result: Draw Schweppe picks Melissa Gatto by second-round submission. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · Sub · R2 | Draw | Gatto | Sub | R2 | |
| Schweppe picks Melissa Gatto by second-round submission. Track record: winner called in 36 of 72 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Greedo Plays MMA
Greedo Plays MMA
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw “give me Cara Kate tier by unanimous decision” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
“give me Cara Kate tier by unanimous decision” Track record: winner called in 24 of 48 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Ground"N"Pound (Aaran)
Ground"N"Pound (Aaran)
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw “so I'm going to go with Anestto Kov skater here to be busier land the bigger shots be straight be fundamental in the striking and ultimately win this one by unanimous decision” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
“so I'm going to go with Anestto Kov skater here to be busier land the bigger shots be straight be fundamental in the striking and ultimately win this one by unanimous decision” Track record: winner called in 10 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Kyle Marley
Kyle Marley
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto · Dec Fight result: Draw Kyle Marley picks Melissa Gatto to beat Ernesta Kareckaitė by unanimous decision, as stated in a SportsLine article written by Daniel Kohn. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · Dec | Draw | Gatto | Dec | Not called | |
| Kyle Marley picks Melissa Gatto to beat Ernesta Kareckaitė by unanimous decision, as stated in a SportsLine article written by Daniel Kohn. Track record builds as we verify their past calls. | ||||||
The MMA Yuda
The MMA Yuda
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė Fight result: Draw The MMA Yuda picks the underdog Ernesta Kareckaite, citing her volume and footwork against wrestling attempts. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · to win | Draw | Kareckaitė | Not called | Not called | |
| The MMA Yuda picks the underdog Ernesta Kareckaite, citing her volume and footwork against wrestling attempts. Track record: winner called in 22 of 45 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Uselyis
Uselyis
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw “I'm going with an Carrick cake and I'm going to go by 2928 decision” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
“I'm going with an Carrick cake and I'm going to go by 2928 decision” Track record: winner called in 20 of 41 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Andrew Sumian
Andrew Sumian
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto Fight result: Draw Sumian picks Melissa Gatto over Ernesta Kareckaite in the Combat Press UFC Vegas 122 preview. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · to win | Draw | Gatto | Not called | Not called | |
| Sumian picks Melissa Gatto over Ernesta Kareckaite in the Combat Press UFC Vegas 122 preview. Track record: winner called in 11 of 23 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Matthew Petela
Matthew Petela
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto Fight result: Draw Petela picks Melissa Gatto over Ernesta Kareckaite in the Combat Press UFC Vegas 122 preview. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · to win | Draw | Gatto | Not called | Not called | |
| Petela picks Melissa Gatto over Ernesta Kareckaite in the Combat Press UFC Vegas 122 preview. Track record: winner called in 11 of 23 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
MMA JAWN
MMA JAWN
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw The MMA JAWN channel picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to beat Melissa Gatto by decision. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
| The MMA JAWN channel picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to beat Melissa Gatto by decision. Track record: winner called in 10 of 21 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Nick Kalikas
Nick Kalikas
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto Fight result: Draw The MMAOddsBreaker UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table selects Melissa Gatto. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · to win | Draw | Gatto | Not called | Not called | |
| The MMAOddsBreaker UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table selects Melissa Gatto. Track record: winner called in 16 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Drew Beaupre
Drew Beaupre
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė Fight result: Draw Drew Beaupre’s MMA Knockout full-card article names Ernesta Kareckaite as his pick. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · to win | Draw | Kareckaitė | Not called | Not called | |
| Drew Beaupre’s MMA Knockout full-card article names Ernesta Kareckaite as his pick. Track record: winner called in 5 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Jeff Fox
Jeff Fox
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto Fight result: Draw “I'll end up with Gate.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · to win | Draw | Gatto | Not called | Not called | |
“I'll end up with Gate.” Track record: winner called in 5 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Matty Betss
Matty Betss
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė Fight result: Draw “I have Ernesta a small favorite here, dude. I got her minus 120” * Small favorite; stated as a lean. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · to win | Draw | Kareckaitė | Not called | Not called | |
“I have Ernesta a small favorite here, dude. I got her minus 120” * Small favorite; stated as a lean. Track record: winner called in 4 of 9 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Alexander K. Lee
Alexander K. Lee
Current pick evidencePicked: Melissa Gatto Fight result: Draw Alexander K. Lee picks Melissa Gatto to defeat Ernesta Kareckaitė. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Gatto · to win | Draw | Gatto | Not called | Not called | |
| Alexander K. Lee picks Melissa Gatto to defeat Ernesta Kareckaitė. Track record: winner called in 10 of 23 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Brandon K
Brandon K
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw The Brandon K channel picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to beat Melissa Gatto by decision. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
| The Brandon K channel picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to beat Melissa Gatto by decision. Track record: winner called in 10 of 23 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Chris Cross
Chris Cross
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė Fight result: Draw TCMMA Podcast leans toward Ernesta Kareckaite, citing her physical advantages and takedown defense; the speaker discounts Gatto’s takedown path as too uncertain to bank on. “I like Ernesta to win to move to 7 and 2 in my opinion.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · to win | Draw | Kareckaitė | Not called | Not called | |
| TCMMA Podcast leans toward Ernesta Kareckaite, citing her physical advantages and takedown defense; the speaker discounts Gatto’s takedown path as too uncertain to bank on. “I like Ernesta to win to move to 7 and 2 in my opinion.” Track record: winner called in 8 of 20 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Chris White
Chris White
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė Fight result: Draw The MMAOddsBreaker UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table selects Ernesta Kareckaite. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · to win | Draw | Kareckaitė | Not called | Not called | |
| The MMAOddsBreaker UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table selects Ernesta Kareckaite. Track record: winner called in 13 of 35 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
FightStudy
FightStudy
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec Fight result: Draw FightStudy predicts Ernesta Kareckaite by decision. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · Dec | Draw | Kareckaitė | Dec | Not called | |
| FightStudy predicts Ernesta Kareckaite by decision. Track record: winner called in 4 of 11 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Carlos Cano
Carlos Cano
Current pick evidencePicked: Ernesta Kareckaitė Fight result: Draw Carlos Cano selects Ernesta Kareckaite as his underdog pick, citing her takedown defense and matchup advantages over Melissa Gatto. “for the 81% defense that Ernesta Kareckaite has, my underdog pick that pays plus 100.” Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Kareckaitė · to win | Draw | Kareckaitė | Not called | Not called | |
| Carlos Cano selects Ernesta Kareckaite as his underdog pick, citing her takedown defense and matchup advantages over Melissa Gatto. “for the 81% defense that Ernesta Kareckaite has, my underdog pick that pays plus 100.” Track record: winner called in 3 of 10 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The bout was a draw — no pick counts as a hit, and nothing changes a track record.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
Results
Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.
Actual Draw
47%
Kareckaitė
53%
Gatto
PickGatto · DecisionActualDraw
Not scored — draw or no contest
45%
Kareckaitė
55%
Gatto
PickGatto · DecisionActualDraw
Not scored — draw or no contest
42%
Kareckaitė
58%
Gatto
PickGatto · DecisionActualDraw
Not scored — draw or no contestAI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot
AI Predictions
Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 9 Oct, 1 day before the fight
All 3 models pick Gatto
All three expect a win by decision, with win chances from 53% (ChatGPT) to 58% (Gemini).
Method mix differs most for KO/TKO: 14% (Claude) to 19% (Gemini), a 5-point range.
-
ChatGPT
47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Pick Gatto by decision
Win probability: Kareckaitė 47%, Gatto 53%.
Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score. -
Claude
46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
Pick Gatto by decision
Win probability: Kareckaitė 45%, Gatto 55%.
Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score. -
Gemini
50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
Pick Gatto by decision
Win probability: Kareckaitė 42%, Gatto 58%.
Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
More detail2 areas differ
The models differ on confidence, probability distribution.
| Detail | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | |||
| Round | — | — | — |
| Detail | ChatGPT | Claude | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|
| How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack | |||
| Round | — | — | — |
ChatGPT
Pick
Gatto by decision
Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.Win probability: Kareckaitė 47%, Gatto 53%
Winner probability by method
KO/TKO, 16% overall: Kareckaitė 7%, Gatto 9%
Submission, 13% overall: Kareckaitė 1%, Gatto 12%
Decision, 71% overall: Kareckaitė 39%, Gatto 32%
gpt-6-astra · 9 Oct47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
Claude
Pick
Gatto by decision
Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.Win probability: Kareckaitė 45%, Gatto 55%
Winner probability by method
KO/TKO, 14% overall: Kareckaitė 6%, Gatto 8%
Submission, 16% overall: Kareckaitė 4%, Gatto 12%
Decision, 70% overall: Kareckaitė 35%, Gatto 35%
claude-sonnet-5-5 · 9 Oct46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
Gemini
Pick
Gatto by decision
Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.Win probability: Kareckaitė 42%, Gatto 58%
Winner probability by method
KO/TKO, 19% overall: Kareckaitė 7%, Gatto 12%
Submission, 12% overall: Kareckaitė 3%, Gatto 9%
Decision, 69% overall: Kareckaitė 32%, Gatto 37%
Version not reported · 9 Oct50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗
No market odds are available for this fight yet.































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