UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan  10 Oct 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Draw — Ernesta Kareckaitė vs Melissa Gatto

Draw · majority

Round 3 · 5:00

Kareckaitė vs Gatto — Women's Flyweight · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan

Predictions summary

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Kareckaitė

Kareckaitė is 6-2-1 with two knockouts and four decisions, and her tape is built on volume: 7.28 significant strikes landed per minute against 6.47 absorbed. At 1.75 m with a 180 cm reach she is the longer fighter against Gatto's 1.65 m and 175 cm, and her 81% takedown defense is the best defensive figure on either side against an opponent who averages 1.77 takedowns.

Case for Gatto

Gatto is 9-3-2 with four submissions, three knockouts and two decisions, and her listed style is jiu-jitsu, with a 1.77 takedown average and a 0.39 submission average. She lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy and defends 54%. She comes off a majority-decision loss to Dione Barbosa at UFC Fight Night in April 2026, and her last win was a third-round body-punch TKO of Tamires Vidal in May 2024.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Gatto's 1.77 takedown average can beat Kareckaitė's 81% takedown defense.
  • Volume against efficiency: Kareckaitė lands 7.28 strikes per minute at 42% accuracy, Gatto 3.47 at 50%.
  • Reach: Kareckaitė's 180 cm and 1.75 m frame against Gatto's 175 cm and 1.65 m.
  • Finishing paths: Gatto has seven stoppages in nine wins, while four of Kareckaitė's six wins went to a decision.
Records & career stats
Kareckaitė Gatto
  1. OutputSig. strikes landed / min 7.28 3.47
  2. Striking def.Striking defense 50% 54%
  3. DurabilitySig. strikes absorbed / min 6.47 2.67
  4. Takedown def.Takedown defense 81% 59%
  5. FinishingFinish rate 33% 78%
6-2-1
Record
9-3-2
Not published
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2-3 last 5
Lithuania
Nationality
Brazil
28
Age
30
175.26 cm
Height — Kareckaitė leads
165.1 cm
180.34 cm
Reach — Kareckaitė leads
175.26 cm
Not published
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Not published
33%
Finish rateFinish % — Gatto leadsFinish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
78%
2
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Gatto leads
3
0
Wins by submissionSub wins — Gatto leads
4
7.28
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Kareckaitė leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.47
6.47
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Gatto leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2.67
50%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Gatto leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
54%
81%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Kareckaitė leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
59%
15:00
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
12:44

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

Analyst picks: Tony Sink picks Kareckaitė; MMA Lock of the Night picks Gatto; Andy Lang picks Kareckaitė; Angelo Bodetti picks Kareckaitė; Mate Bersenadze picks Gatto; Gabriel Sheehan picks Kareckaitė; MMA JOEY picks Kareckaitė; The MMA Guru picks Kareckaitė; Drake Burden picks Kareckaitė; KennyOkoyeMMA picks Kareckaitė; JakeGerberMMA picks Kareckaitė; James Blissett picks Gatto; KingofCrackdown5095 picks Kareckaitė; Anthony Marro picks Kareckaitė; MMA OddsBreaker picks Kareckaitė; Nick Marro picks Gatto; James Lynch picks Gatto; Clenbat picks Kareckaitė; MMA Mathletes picks Gatto; Artem MMA picks Kareckaitė; Tim Edwards picks Kareckaitė; Marcel Dorff picks Kareckaitė; Adam Martin picks Kareckaitė; Mike Finch picks Kareckaitė; PickemMMA picks Gatto; Bert MMA picks Kareckaitė; Half The Battle picks Gatto; Jon Litterine picks Gatto; Daniel Vreeland picks Kareckaitė; Fight Productions picks Kareckaitė; Walk The Line MMA picks Kareckaitė; MikesMMAPicks picks Gatto; Garrett Kerman picks Gatto; Cole Shelton picks Gatto; Zain Bando picks Gatto; Chris Schweppe picks Gatto; Greedo Plays MMA picks Kareckaitė; Ground"N"Pound (Aaran) picks Kareckaitė; Kyle Marley picks Gatto; The MMA Yuda picks Kareckaitė; Uselyis picks Kareckaitė; Andrew Sumian picks Gatto; Matthew Petela picks Gatto; MMA JAWN picks Kareckaitė; Nick Kalikas picks Gatto; Drew Beaupre picks Kareckaitė; Jeff Fox picks Gatto; Matty Betss picks Kareckaitė; Alexander K. Lee picks Gatto; Brandon K picks Kareckaitė; Chris Cross picks Kareckaitė; Chris White picks Kareckaitė; FightStudy picks Kareckaitė; Carlos Cano picks Kareckaitė.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
Tony Sink9 resolved calls
Tony Sink

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė

Fight result: Draw

Tony Sink explicitly picks Ernesta Kareckaite on the moneyline. The article body has an October 3 typo, but its exact UFC Vegas 122 matchup and October 6 byline identify the October 10 card.

“Tony Sink's Pick: Take Ernesta Kareckaite (-101)”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 77.8% 7 2
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
View full track record (9 calls)
Kareckaitė · to winDrawKareckaitėNot calledNot called
MMA Lock of the Night99 resolved calls
MMA Lock of the Night
Hear it — 5:42 Gemini YouTube analysis

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto

Fight result: Draw

“so I have to go with the Brazilian here and I think she ends up grinding this fight out and winning it on the scorecards”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 73.7% 73 26
  • Method Accuracy 54.8% 17 14
  • Round Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (99 calls)
Gatto · to winDrawGattoNot calledNot called
Andy Lang10 resolved calls
Andy Lang

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė

Fight result: Draw

Lang prefers Kareckaite at plus money in what he expects to be a close fight.

“Kareckaite at +125 is the pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 70.0% 7 3
  • Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 66.7% 2 1
View full track record (10 calls)
Kareckaitė · to winDrawKareckaitėNot calledNot called
Angelo Bodetti36 resolved calls
Angelo Bodetti

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė

Fight result: Draw

Angelo expects Kareckaitė to get back up from Gatto’s takedowns, stay busy and land accurately enough to win.

“So, Ernesa Carrot Cake going to be the pick.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.7% 24 12
  • Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 2
View full track record (36 calls)
Kareckaitė · to winDrawKareckaitėNot calledNot called
Mate Bersenadze12 resolved calls
Mate Bersenadze

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto · Dec

Fight result: Draw

Mate Bersenadze’s UFC Vegas 122 article names Melissa Gatto as his personal pick by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.7% 8 4
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
View full track record (12 calls)
Gatto · DecDrawGattoDecNot called
Gabriel Sheehan6 resolved calls
Gabriel Sheehan

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

Sheehan cites Kareckaite’s volume, range, and reach as advantages for an outpointing win.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
  • Method Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
View full track record (6 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
MMA JOEY107 resolved calls
MMA JOEY
Hear it — 2:36 Gemini YouTube analysis

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

MMA JOEY leans toward Ernesta Kareckaitė by Decision.

“i'm going to go Kurakate to outstrike her and stuff the takedowns and win via decision”

* Analyst stated a lean

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 66.4% 71 36
  • Method Accuracy 46.2% 24 28
  • Round Accuracy 24.1% 7 22
  • Underdog Accuracy 38.9% 7 11
View full track record (107 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 4:12 Gemini YouTube analysis

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė

Fight result: Draw

“i'm going with Anessa Carrier and uh I think her striking might be a problem at range she's way bigger than Melissa Gau she's got the range advantage i'm picking her to win”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Kareckaitė · to winDrawKareckaitėNot calledNot called
Drake Burden85 resolved calls
Drake Burden

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė

Fight result: Draw

Burden picks Ernesta Kareckaite over Melissa Gatto in the Rotowire UFC Vegas 122 preview.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 56 29
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
View full track record (85 calls)
Kareckaitė · to winDrawKareckaitėNot calledNot called
KennyOkoyeMMA64 resolved calls
KennyOkoyeMMA
Hear it — 2:59 Gemini YouTube analysis

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

“So I'm going Ernesta likely by decision”

* likely

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.6% 42 22
  • Method Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
View full track record (64 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
JakeGerberMMA127 resolved calls
JakeGerberMMA
Hear it — 1:19 Gemini YouTube analysis

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

“i'm going to side with Kakate i think she gets it done by a competitive 29 to 28 decision”

* States low confidence in either fighter.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.4% 83 44
  • Method Accuracy 60.4% 29 19
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
View full track record (127 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
James Blissett54 resolved calls
James Blissett
Hear it — 49:19 Gemini YouTube analysis

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto · Dec

Fight result: Draw

“so yeah Melissa Gate Via decision would be my official prediction”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.8% 35 19
  • Method Accuracy 48.6% 17 18
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
View full track record (54 calls)
Gatto · DecDrawGattoDecNot called
KingofCrackdown509539 resolved calls
KingofCrackdown5095

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

KingofCrackdown5095 picks Ernesta Kareckaite to beat Melissa Gatto by decision, at low confidence. No round is predicted.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 64.1% 25 14
  • Method Accuracy 60.0% 12 8
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 4 8
  • Underdog Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
View full track record (39 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
Anthony Marro11 resolved calls
Anthony Marro

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

Last Word On MMA’s Anthony Marro column predicts Ernesta Kareckaite by Decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Method Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
View full track record (11 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
MMA OddsBreaker11 resolved calls
MMA OddsBreaker
Hear it — 4:47 Gemini YouTube analysis

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

“I think she just wins the decision I think that it's a great dog pick”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
View full track record (11 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
Nick Marro11 resolved calls
Nick Marro

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto · Dec

Fight result: Draw

Last Word On MMA’s Nick column predicts Melissa Gatto by Decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 63.6% 7 4
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 5 2
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
  • Underdog Accuracy 100.0% 1
View full track record (11 calls)
Gatto · DecDrawGattoDecNot called
James Lynch44 resolved calls
James Lynch

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto · Dec

Fight result: Draw

James Lynch picks Melissa Gatto to beat Ernesta Kareckaitė by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 61.4% 27 17
  • Method Accuracy 44.4% 8 10
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
View full track record (44 calls)
Gatto · DecDrawGattoDecNot called
Clenbat36 resolved calls
Clenbat

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė

Fight result: Draw

Clenbat picks Ernesta Kareckaite with medium confidence, citing her height and reach advantage.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 61.1% 22 14
  • Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
View full track record (36 calls)
Kareckaitė · to winDrawKareckaitėNot calledNot called
MMA Mathletes33 resolved calls
MMA Mathletes
Hear it — 11:02 Gemini YouTube analysis

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto

Fight result: Draw

“i have Melissa Gado on this”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 60.6% 20 13
  • Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
View full track record (33 calls)
Gatto · to winDrawGattoNot calledNot called
Artem MMA71 resolved calls
Artem MMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

Artem MMA picks the underdog Ernesta Kareckaite by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 60.6% 43 28
  • Method Accuracy 63.9% 23 13
  • Round Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 2 8
View full track record (71 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
Tim Edwards10 resolved calls
Tim Edwards

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

Edwards predicts Kareckaite does enough to win a decision and names her moneyline as his best bet.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 60.0% 6 4
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
View full track record (10 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
Marcel Dorff29 resolved calls
Marcel Dorff

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

Marcel Dorff picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to beat Melissa Gatto by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 58.6% 17 12
  • Method Accuracy 54.5% 6 5
  • Round Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
View full track record (29 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
Adam Martin40 resolved calls
Adam Martin

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

Adam Martin picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to beat Melissa Gatto by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 2 3
View full track record (40 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
Mike Finch40 resolved calls
Mike Finch

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

Finch picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to win by decision, citing her reach and kickboxing.

“give me Ernesta Carish Kate over Melissa Gate. She's so damn tall. Such a rangy kickboxer, good kicker. She probably ees out a decision here. Very unlikely that this fight finishes.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.5% 23 17
  • Method Accuracy 62.5% 10 6
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 40.0% 4 6
View full track record (40 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
PickemMMA21 resolved calls
PickemMMA
Hear it — 56:23 Gemini YouTube analysis

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto · Sub

Fight result: Draw

“So I'm guess I'm going to go with fucking Gateau by submission Give me Gateau by submission That's the fucking pick man”

* Really really low confidence; believes Gatto has grappling advantages over Kareckaite

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 57.1% 12 9
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
View full track record (21 calls)
Gatto · SubDrawGattoSubNot called
Bert MMA23 resolved calls
Bert MMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

Bert MMA's card recap has the underdog Ernesta Kareckaite winning by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.5% 13 10
  • Method Accuracy 60.0% 3 2
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 3 3
View full track record (23 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
Half The Battle98 resolved calls
Half The Battle
Hear it — 38:44 Gemini YouTube analysis

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto

Fight result: Draw

“historically speaking I've been a little bit more impressed with Gate So I'll pick her for that reason”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 56.1% 55 43
  • Method Accuracy 71.4% 10 4
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 26.1% 6 17
View full track record (98 calls)
Gatto · to winDrawGattoNot calledNot called
Jon Litterine97 resolved calls
Jon Litterine

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto

Fight result: Draw

Litterine’s bout-specific pick names Gatto as the winner; no method or round is stated.

“UFC VEGAS 122 PICK: Gatto”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.7% 54 43
  • Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 5 15
View full track record (97 calls)
Gatto · to winDrawGattoNot calledNot called
Daniel Vreeland29 resolved calls
Daniel Vreeland

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė

Fight result: Draw

Daniel Vreeland explicitly selects Ernesta Kareckaite on the moneyline in his published UFC Vegas 122 prelim pick.

“UFC Vegas 122 Prelim Pick: Ernesta Kareckaite ML (+110).”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 55.2% 16 13
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (29 calls)
Kareckaitė · to winDrawKareckaitėNot calledNot called
Fight Productions42 resolved calls
Fight Productions

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

Fight Productions backs Ernesta Kareckaite by decision, expecting her volume to win over Melissa Gatto.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.8% 23 19
  • Method Accuracy 73.9% 17 6
  • Round Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (42 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
Walk The Line MMA33 resolved calls
Walk The Line MMA

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

Walk The Line MMA sides with the underdog Ernesta Kareckaite on a 29-28 scorecard, expecting her striking to take two rounds.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.5% 18 15
  • Method Accuracy 57.1% 8 6
  • Round Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
View full track record (33 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
MikesMMAPicks35 resolved calls
MikesMMAPicks

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto

Fight result: Draw

The MMAOddsBreaker UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table selects Melissa Gatto.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 54.3% 19 16
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
View full track record (35 calls)
Gatto · to winDrawGattoNot calledNot called
Garrett Kerman13 resolved calls
Garrett Kerman

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto · Dec

Fight result: Draw

Garrett Kerman’s final recommendation is Melissa Gatto to win by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 53.8% 7 6
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
View full track record (13 calls)
Gatto · DecDrawGattoDecNot called
Cole Shelton99 resolved calls
Cole Shelton

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto

Fight result: Draw

The MMAOddsBreaker UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table selects Melissa Gatto.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.5% 52 47
  • Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 17.6% 3 14
View full track record (99 calls)
Gatto · to winDrawGattoNot calledNot called
Zain Bando23 resolved calls
Zain Bando

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto

Fight result: Draw

MMAOddsBreaker's UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table lists Zain Bando selecting Melissa Gatto.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 52.2% 12 11
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
View full track record (23 calls)
Gatto · to winDrawGattoNot calledNot called
Chris Schweppe72 resolved calls
Chris Schweppe

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto · Sub · Round 2

Fight result: Draw

Schweppe picks Melissa Gatto by second-round submission.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 36 36
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 19 17
  • Round Accuracy 33.3% 8 16
  • Underdog Accuracy 27.8% 5 13
View full track record (72 calls)
Gatto · Sub · R2DrawGattoSubR2
Greedo Plays MMA48 resolved calls
Greedo Plays MMA
Hear it — 5:31 Gemini YouTube analysis

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

“give me Cara Kate tier by unanimous decision”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 24 24
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 12 6
  • Round Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Underdog Accuracy 14.3% 1 6
View full track record (48 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
Ground"N"Pound (Aaran)20 resolved calls
Ground"N"Pound (Aaran)
Hear it — 3:05 Gemini YouTube analysis

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

“so I'm going to go with Anestto Kov skater here to be busier land the bigger shots be straight be fundamental in the striking and ultimately win this one by unanimous decision”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 10 10
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
View full track record (20 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
Kyle Marley4 resolved calls
Kyle Marley

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto · Dec

Fight result: Draw

Kyle Marley picks Melissa Gatto to beat Ernesta Kareckaitė by unanimous decision, as stated in a SportsLine article written by Daniel Kohn.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 50.0% 2 2
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
View full track record (4 calls)
Gatto · DecDrawGattoDecNot called
The MMA Yuda45 resolved calls
The MMA Yuda

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė

Fight result: Draw

The MMA Yuda picks the underdog Ernesta Kareckaite, citing her volume and footwork against wrestling attempts.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 48.9% 22 23
  • Method Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (45 calls)
Kareckaitė · to winDrawKareckaitėNot calledNot called
Uselyis41 resolved calls
Uselyis
Hear it — 2:27 Gemini YouTube analysis

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

“I'm going with an Carrick cake and I'm going to go by 2928 decision”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 48.8% 20 21
  • Method Accuracy 41.7% 5 7
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 5
View full track record (41 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
Andrew Sumian23 resolved calls
Andrew Sumian

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto

Fight result: Draw

Sumian picks Melissa Gatto over Ernesta Kareckaite in the Combat Press UFC Vegas 122 preview.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 47.8% 11 12
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
View full track record (23 calls)
Gatto · to winDrawGattoNot calledNot called
Matthew Petela23 resolved calls
Matthew Petela

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto

Fight result: Draw

Petela picks Melissa Gatto over Ernesta Kareckaite in the Combat Press UFC Vegas 122 preview.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 47.8% 11 12
  • Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 37.5% 3 5
View full track record (23 calls)
Gatto · to winDrawGattoNot calledNot called
MMA JAWN21 resolved calls
MMA JAWN

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

The MMA JAWN channel picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to beat Melissa Gatto by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 47.6% 10 11
  • Method Accuracy 66.7% 4 2
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
View full track record (21 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
Nick Kalikas35 resolved calls
Nick Kalikas

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto

Fight result: Draw

The MMAOddsBreaker UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table selects Melissa Gatto.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 45.7% 16 19
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 20.0% 1 4
View full track record (35 calls)
Gatto · to winDrawGattoNot calledNot called
Drew Beaupre11 resolved calls
Drew Beaupre

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė

Fight result: Draw

Drew Beaupre’s MMA Knockout full-card article names Ernesta Kareckaite as his pick.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
View full track record (11 calls)
Kareckaitė · to winDrawKareckaitėNot calledNot called
Jeff Fox11 resolved calls
Jeff Fox
Hear it — 9:37 Gemini YouTube analysis

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto

Fight result: Draw

“I'll end up with Gate.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 45.5% 5 6
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
View full track record (11 calls)
Gatto · to winDrawGattoNot calledNot called
Matty Betss9 resolved calls
Matty Betss
Hear it — 7:41 Gemini YouTube analysis

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė

Fight result: Draw

“I have Ernesta a small favorite here, dude. I got her minus 120”

* Small favorite; stated as a lean.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 44.4% 4 5
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
View full track record (9 calls)
Kareckaitė · to winDrawKareckaitėNot calledNot called
Alexander K. Lee23 resolved calls
Alexander K. Lee

Current pick evidence

Picked: Melissa Gatto

Fight result: Draw

Alexander K. Lee picks Melissa Gatto to defeat Ernesta Kareckaitė.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 43.5% 10 13
  • Method Accuracy 100.0% 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (23 calls)
Gatto · to winDrawGattoNot calledNot called
Brandon K23 resolved calls
Brandon K

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

The Brandon K channel picks Ernesta Kareckaitė to beat Melissa Gatto by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 43.5% 10 13
  • Method Accuracy 33.3% 2 4
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 3
  • Underdog Accuracy 28.6% 2 5
View full track record (23 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
Chris Cross20 resolved calls
Chris Cross

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė

Fight result: Draw

TCMMA Podcast leans toward Ernesta Kareckaite, citing her physical advantages and takedown defense; the speaker discounts Gatto’s takedown path as too uncertain to bank on.

“I like Ernesta to win to move to 7 and 2 in my opinion.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 40.0% 8 12
  • Method Accuracy 25.0% 1 3
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 1
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
View full track record (20 calls)
Kareckaitė · to winDrawKareckaitėNot calledNot called
Chris White35 resolved calls
Chris White

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė

Fight result: Draw

The MMAOddsBreaker UFC Vegas 122 staff-picks table selects Ernesta Kareckaite.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 37.1% 13 22
  • Method AccuracyNo method picks
  • Round AccuracyNo round picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 11.1% 1 8
View full track record (35 calls)
Kareckaitė · to winDrawKareckaitėNot calledNot called
FightStudy11 resolved calls
FightStudy

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė · Dec

Fight result: Draw

FightStudy predicts Ernesta Kareckaite by decision.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 36.4% 4 7
  • Method Accuracy 75.0% 3 1
  • Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 2
View full track record (11 calls)
Kareckaitė · DecDrawKareckaitėDecNot called
Carlos Cano10 resolved calls
Carlos Cano

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ernesta Kareckaitė

Fight result: Draw

Carlos Cano selects Ernesta Kareckaite as his underdog pick, citing her takedown defense and matchup advantages over Melissa Gatto.

“for the 81% defense that Ernesta Kareckaite has, my underdog pick that pays plus 100.”

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 30.0% 3 7
  • Method Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
  • Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
  • Underdog Accuracy 0.0% 1
View full track record (10 calls)
Kareckaitė · to winDrawKareckaitėNot calledNot called

The bout was a draw — no pick counts as a hit, and nothing changes a track record.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

Results

Pre-fight calls vs result. Market: sportsbook snapshot or historic market reconstruction.

Actual Draw

ChatGPT47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate
47% Kareckaitė
53% Gatto
PickGatto · DecisionActualDraw
Not scored — draw or no contest
Claude46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate
45% Kareckaitė
55% Gatto
PickGatto · DecisionActualDraw
Not scored — draw or no contest
Gemini50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate
42% Kareckaitė
58% Gatto
PickGatto · DecisionActualDraw
Not scored — draw or no contest
AI Predictions — pre-fight snapshot

AI Predictions

Independent forecasts from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini · latest 9 Oct, 1 day before the fight

All 3 models pick Gatto

All three expect a win by decision, with win chances from 53% (ChatGPT) to 58% (Gemini).

Method mix differs most for KO/TKO: 14% (Claude) to 19% (Gemini), a 5-point range.

  • ChatGPT

    47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

    Pick Gatto by decision

    Win probability: Kareckaitė 47%, Gatto 53%.

    gpt-6-astra · 9 Oct

    Low confidence
  • Claude

    46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

    Pick Gatto by decision

    Win probability: Kareckaitė 45%, Gatto 55%.

    claude-sonnet-5-5 · 9 Oct

    Low confidence
  • Gemini

    50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

    Pick Gatto by decision

    Win probability: Kareckaitė 42%, Gatto 58%.

    Version not reported · 9 Oct

    Medium confidence
More detail2 areas differ

The models differ on confidence, probability distribution.

Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———
Forecast comparison by model
DetailChatGPTClaudeGemini
How it endsKO/TKOSubmissionDecisionTop to bottom in each stack
Round———

ChatGPT

Pick

Gatto by decision

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Kareckaitė 47%, Gatto 53%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 16% overall: Kareckaitė 7%, Gatto 9%
Submission, 13% overall: Kareckaitė 1%, Gatto 12%
Decision, 71% overall: Kareckaitė 39%, Gatto 32%

gpt-6-astra · 9 Oct47 of 81 winner picks correct · 58% hit rate

Claude

Pick

Gatto by decision

Low confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Kareckaitė 45%, Gatto 55%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 14% overall: Kareckaitė 6%, Gatto 8%
Submission, 16% overall: Kareckaitė 4%, Gatto 12%
Decision, 70% overall: Kareckaitė 35%, Gatto 35%

claude-sonnet-5-5 · 9 Oct46 of 75 winner picks correct · 61% hit rate

Gemini

Pick

Gatto by decision

Medium confidenceConfidence labelBased on the higher win probability: Low below 58%, Medium 58–69%, High 70% or more. This is a coarse probability band, not a separate calibrated score.
Win probability: Kareckaitė 42%, Gatto 58%

Winner probability by method

KO/TKO, 19% overall: Kareckaitė 7%, Gatto 12%
Submission, 12% overall: Kareckaitė 3%, Gatto 9%
Decision, 69% overall: Kareckaitė 32%, Gatto 37%

Version not reported · 9 Oct50 of 81 winner picks correct · 62% hit rate

AI-generated · Not betting advice · 18+ (21+ where required) · Gambling help (opens in new tab) ↗

No market odds are available for this fight yet.