Lucas Tracy — UFC Freedom 250 predictions

Tracy admits he's worried Garcia's long, rangy striking could trouble Lopes, but trusts Lopes's proven iron chin, power and more well-rounded grappling. He sees Lopes as the bigger threat in a firefight and able to take Garcia down and bully him.

• Lopes's chin is battle-tested (Volk x2, Silva, Ige); Garcia's is unproven
• Power and grappling edge — could take Garcia down
• Worried Garcia's slick range striking could make Lopes look lost

“That's for sure. He He's in for a tough task. I'm going to lean Diego Lopez by a”

Tracy sees an early-danger test but expects Nickal to return to his wrestling roots, where he finally holds a sizeable grappling edge — unlike his recent better-grappler opponents. He thinks Nickal ragdolls and submits Daukaus, and notes the striking has visibly improved.

• First time in a while Nickal has a clear grappling advantage
• Daukaus's best chance is a no-respect early blitz
• Nickal's striking looked much improved last time out

“I'm going to go with Bo Nickal by a first or second-round submission.”

Tracy says there's no need to overthink it: Chandler is old, inactive and washed off the worst performance of his career, while the younger, longer, faster Ruffy holds reach, height, speed and defence edges. He expects a jab-then-right-hand viral KO.

• Reach (3.5in), height, youth, speed and defence edges for Ruffy
• Even if taken down, Ruffy survives and gets back up to finish
• Ruffy's grappling likely improved with Volkanovski

“Ruffy is going to knock Michael Chandler out — first or second round, a viral KO.”

Tracy argues the 40-something Lewis is old, fragile-chinned and prone to wilting and has only been beating cans, while Hokit is a fast-handed, ferocious, athletic small heavyweight whose avalanche pressure overwhelms opponents. He expects a quick blitz, like the Curtis Blaydes win.

• Gives Lewis a 25-30% puncher's chance
• Hokit's relentless in-your-face style is dangerous to Lewis's chin
• Hokit's grappling is underrated — could finish on the ground

“I think we're going to see Josh Hokit knock out Derrick Lewis in the first round.”

Tracy notes Zahabi is a notorious slow starter coming off a razor-thin fight with Vera, while O'Malley is dangerous early and put on one of the best bantamweight striking performances ever against Vera. He expects O'Malley to walk Zahabi onto a punch early.

• Zahabi is a chronic slow starter
• O'Malley's only trouble is an early Zahabi takedown
• O'Malley also does his best work late

“I'm going to say Ali is probably going to get this one done by first round KO.”

Tracy calls it genuinely close but picks Pereira: Gane lacks finishing power and plays the points game at range, while Pereira can match him there and is faster than people remember. He sees leg kicks accumulating, Gane slowing, and Pereira landing the left hook to finish.

• Gane has no real finishing threat — needs huge volume
• Pereira's leg kicks and underrated speed are the difference
• Could be a late TKO or even a decision if Gane shows up great

“I'm going to go with a third-round KO for Alex Pereira.”

Tracy thinks people overrate Gaethje's chances: he calls Topuria the most dangerous fighter in UFC history and by far the best in the division, while insisting Gaethje has no real KO power. He predicts a big right hook on the chin, with a takedown threat Topuria won't even need.

• 'Gaethje has no KO power': went 25 minutes with Pimblett
• Topuria has a grappling threat he won't need
• Says it 'won't even be close'

“Ilia Topuria is gonna flatline Justin Gaethje in the first round.”