Dan Tom is a martial arts analyst and writer, and the host of The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast. A martial arts practitioner and competitor, he describes his approach as technical analysis intended to help readers make betting and fantasy decisions.
Scorecard
Track record building — 3 resolved calls so far. Visible hit/miss split unlocks at 5 resolved scored picks. How Track Record works.
- Winner Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows: read where a line sits alongside its denominator. Winner covers every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss
1 of 3 — too few scored calls to chart a trend.
Method — No method callsRound — No round callsUnderdog — No underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
Card by card
Newest card first. One mark per resolved call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Allen vs. Duncan 1 hit · 1 miss
- UFC Freedom 250 0 hit · 1 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Allen vs. Duncan
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 1 1
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Prado · to win | Prado · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Dan Tom selects Francisco Prado to finish in round 1 or 2; recorded as a winner pick without converting the round range to one method or round. Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.1%. Camilo · to win | Herbert · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Dan Tom backs Camilo on the moneyline; the separately described submission sprinkle is not recorded as the method of his main side. “If you're looking for plus-money action on the Camilo side, then I suggest using the aforementioned Under in an SGP with his money line.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
UFC Freedom 250
Topuria vs. Gaethje
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 0.0% 1
- Method AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Round AccuracyNo correct calls to break down yet
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite call, market price 79.5%. Topuria · to win | Gaethje · KO/TKO R4 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Dan Tom sees Topuria as the sharper, more disciplined strategist and thinks Gaethje's decline from the Pimblett fight matters. His closing call is Topuria, while separately floating submission as a possible way the upset-resistant matchup could still look different from the knockout consensus. “I'm picking Tapora.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 79.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. * Roundtable source with multiple analysts; this row uses Dan Tom's own closing pick segment. The transcript renders some names phonetically (Tapora/Gatei), but the bout context and introduced speaker identify the mapping. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Dan Tom's logged calls.