Gerardo Rivas analyzes UFC matchups alongside Carlos Cano on MCA PICKS.
Scorecard
Called 7 of 15 resolved picks — every call traced to its source, no bare percentage. How Track Record works.
- Winner Accuracy 46.7% 7 8
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
Hit Miss
The running record
Every figure below is cumulative — computed over all resolved calls up to and including each card, never one card on its own. A cumulative rate settles as the denominator grows: read where a line sits alongside its denominator. Winner covers every resolved call; method, round and underdog each have a different and much smaller base, printed beside each one.
Hit Miss
7 of 15 — 47% now, from 43% at their first scored card.
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Method
1 of 3 correct winners that named a method — too few to chart a trend.
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Round
0 of 2 correct winners that named a round — too few to chart a trend.
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Underdog
1 of 3 priced underdog calls — too few to chart a trend.
Card by card
Newest card first. One mark per resolved call, hits above the line and misses below. Every call is listed in Call History, below.
- Allen vs. Duncan 4 hit · 4 miss
- UFC 332 3 hit · 4 miss
Call History
Every logged call, grouped by event, scored on Winner, Method, and Round — nothing about a result ever sits behind a click.
underdog pick favourite pick — shown only for picks with a known pre-fight price. The percentage is the chance the market gave the fighter this analyst picked. Open a row for the price’s source and the credit it earned.
Allen vs. Duncan
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 50.0% 4 4
- Method AccuracyCalls the winner, not the method
- Round AccuracyCalls the winner, not the round
- Underdog Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog call, market price 48.9%. Duncan · to win | Allen · Sub R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Gerardo Rivas selects Christian Leroy Duncan over Brendan Allen, citing value as the underdog and his striking threat. “The animal, the striker CLD, paying plus money, being an underdog. I think there's a lot of value in Christian Leroy Duncan in the main event” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 48.9% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 60.5%. Prado · to win | Prado · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Gerardo Rivas selects Francisco Prado over Ismael Bonfim, saying he likes the Argentine and sees value. “Argentine and I think there's value there because of what we discussed in the first part of this episode” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 60.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 36.1%. Tanzilovi · to win | Tanzilovi · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Gerardo Rivas takes the underdog in the Georgian-versus-Malcolm Wellmaker matchup; the auto-dub captions render Otari Tanzilovi as “Otar Tchiladze,” resolved from the bout context. “first, and while I watch, I'll take advantage of the underdog at plus 166, champion.” Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 36.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 77.5%. Franco · to win | Ribeiro · Sub R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Gerardo Rivas selects Felipe Franco as the first leg of his parlay, discussing Franco’s move to the 205-pound division and prior Contender Series bout. “First, I have Felipe Franco” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 77.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 67.4%. Godinez · to win | Godinez · Dec R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Gerardo Rivas selects Loopy Godinez over Ketlen Souza as the final leg of his parlay. “And finally, Loopy Godinez.” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 67.4% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 73.5%. Walker · to win | Walker · KO/TKO R2 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
Gerardo Rivas selects Julius Walker over Gerald Meerschaert as the next leg of his parlay. “Next, I have Julius Walker, just like you, Calito” Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 73.5% before the fight, from a price reconstructed after the fact from Polymarket’s public trading history. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Favourite call, market price 63.1%. Camilo · to win | Herbert · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favourite call. The market gave this fighter 63.1% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. Favourite calls earn no underdog credit. | |||||
| Underdog call, market price 43.4%. Kamaka III · to win | Fili · KO/TKO R2 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Underdog call. The market gave this fighter 43.4% before the fight, from the pre-event sportsbook consensus frozen before the fight. | |||||
UFC 332
Silva vs. Wang
Event scorecard
- Winner Accuracy 42.9% 3 4
- Method Accuracy 33.3% 1 2
- Round Accuracy 0.0% 2
- Underdog AccuracyNo underdog calls with a known pre-fight price
| Fight | Pick | Actual | Winner | Method | Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silva · KO/TKO · R3 | Silva · Dec R5 | Hit | Miss | Miss | |
Favors Silva’s preparation, timing and kicking game. | |||||
| Talbott · KO/TKO · R2 | Talbott · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Hit | Miss | |
Expects Talbott’s physical advantages to force a worn-down Figueiredo toward grappling, where he sees a finish coming. | |||||
| Green · Sub · R2 | Ribovics · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Sees Green’s experience and grappling allowing him to submit Ribovics in the second round. | |||||
| Gautier · KO/TKO · R2 | Kopylov · KO/TKO R1 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Expects Gautier’s power to break through Kopylov’s resistance and stop him in the second round. | |||||
| Williams · KO/TKO · R1 | Soldić · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Expects Williams’s power and reach advantage to catch Soldic early, and doubts Soldic’s durability. | |||||
| Rodriguez · Dec | Rodriguez · KO/TKO R1 | Hit | Miss | Not called | |
Expects Rodriguez’s harder punches to produce the most important moments and open transitions to the ground. | |||||
| Vettori · Dec | Naurdiev · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
Favors Vettori’s durability, volume, experience and ability to mix in wrestling. | |||||
Videos
Every source clip behind Gerardo Rivas's logged calls.