Mateusz Rębecki defeats Myktybek Orolbai by decision
Rębecki vs Orolbai · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Rębecki and Orolbai fought for three rounds at UFC 308.
The contest went to the judges after the full distance.
Rębecki received the split-decision verdict.
- Official UFC resultsUFC 308: Topuria vs Holloway — Main Card Results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Rębecki
The official UFC result lists Rębecki as the red-corner winner by split decision after three catchweight rounds. The full-fight broadcast shows him pressing forward, defending an early second-round takedown attempt and landing a stepping right hand in the final round.
Case for Orolbai
Orolbai was the blue-corner fighter in the official UFC result and took the split-decision loss. The broadcast records him circling and countering in the opening round, looking for takedowns in round two, and continuing to return fire through the final bell.
What We Were Watching For
- How does Rębecki's forward pressure shape the early striking exchanges?
- Can Orolbai turn his round-two takedown looks into sustained control?
- Which fighter has the clearer moments in the final round before the scorecards?
Records & career stats
- 19-2-0
- Record
- 13-1-1
- 1-4 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- 4-1 last 5
- Poland
- Nationality
- Kyrgyzstan
- 33
- Age
- 28
- —
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 80%
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- Source pending
- 10
- Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
- —
- 7
- Wins by submissionSub wins
- —
- 53%
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- 10:48
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
- 04:50
- Lightweight (moving up)
- Weight classWeight
- Welterweight (moving up)
- American Top Team
- Team
- Team Alpha Male
Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Performance filters use calls resolved before this event.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Myktybek Orolbai · Dec
Fight result: Mateusz Rębecki · Decision
AJ picks Myktybek Orolbai by unanimous decision through pressure wrestling over Mateusz Rębecki.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
- Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
- Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
- Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Myktybek Orolbai
Fight result: Mateusz Rębecki · Decision
The MMA Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai over Mateusz Rębecki, trusting Orolbai's pace and late-fight wrestling.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
- Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
- Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
- Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
Analyst picks: AJ Devito Miss; The MMA Guru Miss.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ Devito
AJ Devito
Current pick evidencePicked: Myktybek Orolbai · Dec Fight result: Mateusz Rębecki · Decision AJ picks Myktybek Orolbai by unanimous decision through pressure wrestling over Mateusz Rębecki. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Orolbai · Dec | Rębecki · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| AJ picks Myktybek Orolbai by unanimous decision through pressure wrestling over Mateusz Rębecki. Track record: winner called in 165 of 237 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
The MMA Guru
The MMA Guru
Current pick evidencePicked: Myktybek Orolbai Fight result: Mateusz Rębecki · Decision The MMA Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai over Mateusz Rębecki, trusting Orolbai's pace and late-fight wrestling. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Orolbai · to win | Rębecki · Dec R3 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| The MMA Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai over Mateusz Rębecki, trusting Orolbai's pace and late-fight wrestling. Track record: winner called in 203 of 308 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Only 0 of 2 called the upset.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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