UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway  26 Oct 2024 · Abu Dhabi, UAE, AE

Ilia Topuria defeats Max Holloway by KO

Win Ilia Topuria 18-0-0
Loss Max Holloway 26-8-0
KO · left hook

Round 3 · 1:34

Topuria vs Holloway — Featherweight Title · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

The opening two rounds were tight, with both men trading taunts and Topuria borrowing Holloway's point-to-the-ground invitation.

A clean right cross drove Holloway to the cage in round three.

Topuria's left hook dropped Holloway before the hammerfists ended the fight at 1:34 of the third.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Topuria

Topuria entered as the reigning unbeaten featherweight champion, having dethroned Alexander Volkanovski eight months earlier at UFC 298. A technically refined boxer with elite finishing power — six of his seven UFC wins came by KO/TKO — he had yet to be seriously hurt in a professional fight and was widely considered the most dangerous striker in the division.

Case for Holloway

Holloway was the most decorated featherweight in UFC history, having held the title through four defences before losing it to Volkanovski. He came in on the best form of his career: a BMF title win via last-second knockout of Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 gave him fresh momentum, and his elite striking volume (6.91 significant strikes a minute) and granite chin made him a genuine threat to anyone in the division.

What We Were Watching For

  • Could Holloway's volume — the most strikes per minute of any featherweight — outlast Topuria's sheer finishing power?
  • Topuria's boxing accuracy (48% significant strike rate) against Holloway's 59% striking defence.
  • A first title unification between two fighters who both beat Alexander Volkanovski.
  • Would Topuria's explosive knockdown power, seen against Volkanovski, surface against a more durable chin?
Records & career stats
Topuria vs Holloway
17-0-0
Record
26-7-0
5-0 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3-2 last 5
Georgia / Spain
Nationality
USA
29
Age
34
1.70 m
Height — Holloway leads
1.80 m
175 cm
Reach
175 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
88%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
Source pending
7
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
—
8
Wins by submissionSub wins — Topuria leads
2
4.82
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Holloway leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
6.92
3.97
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Topuria leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.60
62%
Striking defenseStrike def. — Topuria leadsStriking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
59%
95%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Topuria leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
81%
10:26
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
16:11
Team Topuria
Team
Hawaii Elite MMA - Hawaii

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (2)

Comments

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

AJ Devito
Hear it — 41:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilia Topuria

Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO

AJ picks Ilia Topuria over Max Holloway, emphasizing Topuria's pressure, power and grappling threat.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 65:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilia Topuria · Dec

Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO

The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria by decision over Max Holloway, expecting pressure and body work to edge the five-round fight.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)

Analyst picks: AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 41:54

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilia Topuria

Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO

AJ picks Ilia Topuria over Max Holloway, emphasizing Topuria's pressure, power and grappling threat.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Topuria · to winTopuria · KO R3HitNot calledNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 65:05

Current pick evidence

Picked: Ilia Topuria · Dec

Fight result: Ilia Topuria · KO

The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria by decision over Max Holloway, expecting pressure and body work to edge the five-round fight.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Topuria · DecTopuria · KO R3HitMissNot called

2 of 2 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

Independent fan-made fight recap. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the UFC or any other MMA promotion. Analysis is editorial opinion, not betting advice. Fighter names and records are used for commentary. Image credits · Methodology · Privacy · Terms.