UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes  12 Apr 2025 · Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida, US

Paddy Pimblett defeats Michael Chandler by TKO

Loss Michael Chandler 23-10-0
Win Paddy Pimblett 23-3-0
TKO · elbows and punches

Round 3 · 3:07

Chandler vs Pimblett — Lightweight Bout · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Pimblett controlled distance and volume from the opening round, busting Chandler up early.

A round-three knee opened the cut before Pimblett took Chandler down and moved into mount.

Elbows and punches from mount brought the stoppage at 3:07 of round three.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Chandler

Chandler’s route was still built on explosive entries, wrestling bursts and the kind of sudden power that can change a fight before a longer opponent settles. If he could create scrambles early and make Pimblett defend instead of build, the veteran had a real upset path.

Case for Pimblett

Pimblett had youth, length and a grappling game that becomes more dangerous once he gets extended top time. His path was to survive Chandler’s early explosions, keep making him work, and then turn volume, elbows and positional control into attritional damage.

What We Were Watching For

  • Can Chandler create early chaos before Pimblett settles into range?
  • Pimblett’s top control and elbows if Chandler gives up extended grappling positions.
  • Whether the fight turns from Chandler bursts into a longer durability test.
Records & career stats
Chandler vs Pimblett
23-9-0
Record
22-3-0
1-4 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4-1 last 5
USA
Nationality
England
40
Age
31
1.73 m
Height — Pimblett leads
1.78 m
180 cm
Reach — Pimblett leads
185 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Orthodox
78%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
Source pending
11
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins — Chandler leads
7
7
Wins by submissionSub wins
—
3.91
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Pimblett leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
5.48
4.51
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Pimblett leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
3.86
44%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
43%
62%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Chandler leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
46%
09:14
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
09:49
Kill Cliff FC
Team
NEXT Generation MMA

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

Before the fight (1)

Comments

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

AJ Devito
Hear it — 61:58

Current pick evidence

Picked: Paddy Pimblett · Sub

Fight result: Paddy Pimblett · TKO

AJ picks Paddy Pimblett and identifies a club-and-sub sequence, with Pimblett hurting Chandler before taking his back or locking a choke.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 66:34

Current pick evidence

Picked: Paddy Pimblett · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Paddy Pimblett · TKO

The MMA Guru settles on Paddy Pimblett by second-round TKO, expecting Chandler's early pressure to fade before Pimblett finds the finish.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)

Analyst picks: AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Hit.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 61:58

Current pick evidence

Picked: Paddy Pimblett · Sub

Fight result: Paddy Pimblett · TKO

AJ picks Paddy Pimblett and identifies a club-and-sub sequence, with Pimblett hurting Chandler before taking his back or locking a choke.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Pimblett · SubPimblett · TKO R3HitMissNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 66:34

Current pick evidence

Picked: Paddy Pimblett · KO/TKO · Round 2

Fight result: Paddy Pimblett · TKO

The MMA Guru settles on Paddy Pimblett by second-round TKO, expecting Chandler's early pressure to fade before Pimblett finds the finish.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Pimblett · KO/TKO · R2Pimblett · TKO R3HitHitMiss

2 of 2 nailed it.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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