UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev  8 Mar 2025 · T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Justin Gaethje defeats Rafael Fiziev by Decision (unanimous)

Win Justin Gaethje 26-5-0
Loss Rafael Fiziev 12-4-0
Decision (unanimous)

Round 3 · 5:00

Gaethje vs Fiziev — Lightweight Bout · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev

Predictions summary

What happened

The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.

Fiziev's early stance switches and Muay Thai kicks kept the opening competitive after he stepped in on short notice.

Gaethje's pressure, a second-round knockdown and a key uppercut changed the momentum.

Fiziev started the third sharply, but Gaethje's pressure and heavy shots carried him through the finish.

Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in

Case for Gaethje

Gaethje entered the rematch with the deeper five-round experience, the heavier late-fight optics and a proven ability to win exchanges even when absorbing damage. His path was to survive Fiziev’s early speed, build behind pressure and turn the final two rounds into a durability test.

Case for Fiziev

Fiziev remained the cleaner technician in tight spaces, with knees, kicks and fast counters that could punish Gaethje’s forward march. Taking the fight on short notice made efficiency critical: bank early rounds, damage the legs and keep Gaethje from snowballing late.

What We Were Watching For

  • Whether Fiziev’s early speed could bank enough offense before Gaethje adjusted.
  • Gaethje’s right hand as the fight settled into repeated pocket exchanges.
  • Short-notice conditioning for Fiziev against Gaethje’s late pressure.
Records & career stats
Gaethje vs Fiziev
25-5-0
Record
12-3-0
4-1 last 5
Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
2-3 last 5
USA
Nationality
Azerbaijan
37
Age
33
1.80 m
Height — Gaethje leads
1.73 m
178 cm
Reach — Fiziev leads
180 cm
Orthodox
StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
Switch
78%
Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
Source pending
21
Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
—
1
Wins by submissionSub wins
1
6.29
Sig. strikes landed / minStr / min — Gaethje leadsSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.71
6.83
Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / min — Fiziev leadsSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
4.81
51%
Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
50%
73%
Takedown defenseTD def. — Fiziev leadsTakedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
90%
12:38
Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
11:32
Genesis Training Center
Team
Tiger Muay Thai - Phuket, Thailand

Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.

Videos

Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.

After the fight
Full FightSource unavailable Gaethje vs Fiziev 2 full fight Playback is not enabled until a verified source is available.
Before the fight (1)

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Who Called It?

How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.

AJ Devito
Hear it — 57:51

Current pick evidence

Picked: Justin Gaethje · Dec

Fight result: Justin Gaethje · Decision (unanimous)

AJ picks Justin Gaethje in another competitive fight, explicitly calling for another decision win over Rafael Fiziev.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 44:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rafael Fiziev · KO/TKO

Fight result: Justin Gaethje · Decision (unanimous)

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev to TKO Justin Gaethje early, later describing the finish as arriving in the first or second round.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)

Analyst picks: AJ Devito Hit; The MMA Guru Miss.

Analyst prediction scorecards
Expand row
AJ Devito237 resolved calls
AJ Devito
Hear it — 57:51

Current pick evidence

Picked: Justin Gaethje · Dec

Fight result: Justin Gaethje · Decision (unanimous)

AJ picks Justin Gaethje in another competitive fight, explicitly calling for another decision win over Rafael Fiziev.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 69.6% 165 72
  • Method Accuracy 58.4% 59 42
  • Round Accuracy 75.0% 6 2
  • Underdog Accuracy 46.2% 12 14
View full track record (237 calls)
Gaethje · DecGaethje · Decision (unanimous) R3HitHitNot called
The MMA Guru308 resolved calls
The MMA Guru
Hear it — 44:25

Current pick evidence

Picked: Rafael Fiziev · KO/TKO

Fight result: Justin Gaethje · Decision (unanimous)

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev to TKO Justin Gaethje early, later describing the finish as arriving in the first or second round.

Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology

  • Winner Accuracy 65.9% 203 105
  • Method Accuracy 52.8% 57 51
  • Round Accuracy 32.4% 12 25
  • Underdog Accuracy 47.2% 17 19
View full track record (308 calls)
Fiziev · KO/TKOGaethje · Decision (unanimous) R3MissNot applicable — the winner call missedNot applicable — the winner call missed

1 of 2 called the winner.

The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.

No AI predictions are available for this fight yet.

No market odds are available for this fight yet.

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