Alexandre Pantoja defeats Kai Kara-France by Submission
Round 3 · 1:55
Pantoja vs Kara-France — Flyweight Title · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
Pantoja and Kara-France contested the flyweight title at UFC 317.
The championship fight reached the third round.
The official result recorded Pantoja's rear-naked-choke submission at 1:55 of round three.
- Official UFC scorecardsUFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira — Official Scorecards
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Pantoja
Pantoja's title-level edge came from forcing flyweight fights into messy, exhausting sequences. He could strike in combination, but his real leverage was in turning every clinch or scramble into back takes, mat returns and the kind of attritional grappling that breaks opponents over longer rounds.
Case for Kara-France
Kara-France had the cleaner one-shot speed and the sharper pocket exits. His route was to keep the fight in open space, punish entries with counters and make Pantoja pay every time the champion tried to close distance without first setting the hands.
What We Were Watching For
- Can Kara-France bank early striking rounds before Pantoja starts chaining wrestling together?
- Does Pantoja find enough cage time and top control to drain the challenger across five rounds?
- Which moments at boxing range actually force the fight's terms: Kara-France counters or Pantoja pressure?
Records & career stats
- 29-5-0
- Record
- 25-11-0
- 4-1 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- Brazil
- Nationality
- New Zealand
- 36
- Age
- —
- 1.65 m
- Height
- —
- 170 cm
- Reach
- —
- Not published
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
- —
- 67%
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
- —
- 8
- Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
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- 12
- Wins by submissionSub wins
- —
- 4.54
- Sig. strikes landed / minStr / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- 4.23
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
- —
- 48%
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
- —
- 69%
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- 12:37
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
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Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (3)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Performance filters use calls resolved before this event.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexandre Pantoja
Fight result: Alexandre Pantoja · Submission
RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Drake Burden on Alexandre Pantoja.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.9% 56 29
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexandre Pantoja
Fight result: Alexandre Pantoja · Submission
RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Jake Letarski on Alexandre Pantoja.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 40 24
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 4 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexandre Pantoja
Fight result: Alexandre Pantoja · Submission
RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Jon Litterine on Alexandre Pantoja.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 55.7% 54 43
- Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 5 15
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexandre Pantoja
Fight result: Alexandre Pantoja · Submission
RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Joe SunTszu on Alexandre Pantoja.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 53.1% 34 30
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 4 12
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexandre Pantoja
Fight result: Alexandre Pantoja · Submission
RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Cole Shelton on Alexandre Pantoja.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 52.5% 52 47
- Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 17.6% 3 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Alexandre Pantoja
Fight result: Alexandre Pantoja · Submission
RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Chris Olson on Alexandre Pantoja.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 44.3% 31 39
- Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 6 14
Analyst picks: Drake Burden Hit; Jake Letarski Hit; Jon Litterine Hit; Joe SunTszu Hit; Cole Shelton Hit; Chris Olson Hit.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drake Burden
Drake Burden
Current pick evidencePicked: Alexandre Pantoja Fight result: Alexandre Pantoja · Submission RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Drake Burden on Alexandre Pantoja. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Pantoja · to win | Pantoja · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Drake Burden on Alexandre Pantoja. Track record: winner called in 56 of 85 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Jake Letarski
Jake Letarski
Current pick evidencePicked: Alexandre Pantoja Fight result: Alexandre Pantoja · Submission RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Jake Letarski on Alexandre Pantoja. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Pantoja · to win | Pantoja · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Jake Letarski on Alexandre Pantoja. Track record: winner called in 40 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidencePicked: Alexandre Pantoja Fight result: Alexandre Pantoja · Submission RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Jon Litterine on Alexandre Pantoja. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Pantoja · to win | Pantoja · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Jon Litterine on Alexandre Pantoja. Track record: winner called in 54 of 97 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Joe SunTszu
Joe SunTszu
Current pick evidencePicked: Alexandre Pantoja Fight result: Alexandre Pantoja · Submission RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Joe SunTszu on Alexandre Pantoja. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Pantoja · to win | Pantoja · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Joe SunTszu on Alexandre Pantoja. Track record: winner called in 34 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Cole Shelton
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidencePicked: Alexandre Pantoja Fight result: Alexandre Pantoja · Submission RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Cole Shelton on Alexandre Pantoja. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Pantoja · to win | Pantoja · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Cole Shelton on Alexandre Pantoja. Track record: winner called in 52 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Chris Olson
Chris Olson
Current pick evidencePicked: Alexandre Pantoja Fight result: Alexandre Pantoja · Submission RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Chris Olson on Alexandre Pantoja. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Pantoja · to win | Pantoja · Sub R3 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| RotoWire's UFC 317 expert-picks table lists Chris Olson on Alexandre Pantoja. Track record: winner called in 31 of 70 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
6 of 6 nailed it.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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