UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Max Holloway defeats Dustin Poirier by Decision (unanimous)
Round 5 · 5:00
Holloway vs Poirier — BMF Title · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Predictions summary
What happened
The result, the defining moments, and what the verdict means.
The retiring Poirier and Holloway completed their five-round trilogy fight in New Orleans.
The contest remained competitive as Holloway worked through Poirier's late second-round success.
Holloway earned the unanimous decision, defended the BMF title and recorded his first win in the series.
- Official UFC resultsUFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier 3 — Main Card Results
Pre-fight analysis — how we saw it going in
Case for Holloway
Holloway's case was activity without recklessness. After two losses to Poirier, he needed to keep the boxing volume high, attack the body and win enough long exchanges that Poirier's single power moments did not define the scorecards.
Case for Poirier
Poirier still had the heavier hands and the emotional home-state farewell behind him. His best route was to make Holloway respect the counter fire, turn exchanges into pocket trades and land the kind of late-round damage that had decided their second meeting.
What We Were Watching For
- Whether Holloway's early knockdown lets him dictate the pace or draws him into a brawl.
- Poirier's late-round answers, especially when Holloway starts stringing combinations together.
- How the final round is scored in a close, mostly stand-up BMF title fight.
Records & career stats
- 26-8-0
- Record
- 30-10-0
- 3-2 last 5
- Recent formRecent formWin–loss record over the fighter’s last five bouts, newest first, as carried in their UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- USA
- Nationality
- United States
- 34
- Age
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- 1.80 m
- Height
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- 175 cm
- Reach
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- Orthodox
- StanceStanceWhich side a fighter leads from — a striking term, not a religious one. Orthodox: right-handed, left foot and hand forward (the common default). Southpaw: the mirror image, right side forward (usually a left-hander). Switch: changes between the two during a fight.
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- Source pending
- Finish rateFinish %Finish rateThe share of a fighter’s wins that ended inside the distance — by KO/TKO or submission — rather than going to the judges’ scorecards. Higher means more finishes.
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- —
- Wins by KO/TKOKO wins
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- 2
- Wins by submissionSub wins
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- 6.92
- Sig. strikes landed / minStr / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter lands for every minute of fight time — a read on striking output and pace. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- 4.60
- Sig. strikes absorbed / minAbs / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteAverage number of significant strikes a fighter takes for every minute of fight time. Lower is better — it means they get hit less often. From UFC/FightMetric career stats.
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- 59%
- Striking defenseStrike def.Striking defenseThe percentage of opponents’ significant strikes that do not land — strikes slipped, blocked or evaded. Higher is better. Not the same as striking accuracy, which counts your own strikes that land. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- 81%
- Takedown defenseTD def.Takedown defenseThe percentage of opponents’ takedown attempts that are stuffed. Higher means harder to put on the mat. From UFC/FightMetric.
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- 16:11
- Avg. fight timeAvg. timeAverage fight timeThe mean length of the fighter’s bouts (minutes:seconds) — a rough read on whether they tend to finish early or go the distance. From UFC/FightMetric.
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Career stats per UFC.com; recent form is each fighter's last five bouts. Record is as of fight night; career stats, recent form and win totals are the latest on file and may include this fight. Bars compare each stat on a fixed scale; the “Edge” marker flags the leading corner where the gap is meaningful. The snapshot plots five career rates — output, striking defense, durability (strikes absorbed, inverted), takedown defense and finish rate — each normalised on its own scale.
Videos
Outcome footage, post-fight coverage, and the pre-fight lead-up.
Before the fight (1)
Comments
Who Called It?
How the analysts' picks held up once the cage door closed.
Performance filters use calls resolved before this event.
Current pick evidence
Picked: Max Holloway
Fight result: Max Holloway · Decision (unanimous)
RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Drake Burden on Max Holloway.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 65.9% 56 29
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 50.0% 6 6
Current pick evidence
Picked: Max Holloway
Fight result: Max Holloway · Decision (unanimous)
RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Jake Letarski on Max Holloway.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 62.5% 40 24
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 36.4% 4 7
Current pick evidence
Picked: Max Holloway
Fight result: Max Holloway · Decision (unanimous)
RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Jon Litterine on Max Holloway.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 55.7% 54 43
- Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 5 15
Current pick evidence
Picked: Max Holloway
Fight result: Max Holloway · Decision (unanimous)
RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Cole Shelton on Max Holloway.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 52.5% 52 47
- Method Accuracy 80.0% 4 1
- Round AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Underdog Accuracy 17.6% 3 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Max Holloway
Fight result: Max Holloway · Decision (unanimous)
RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Chris Olson on Max Holloway.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 44.3% 31 39
- Method AccuracyNo qualifying picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 30.0% 6 14
Current pick evidence
Picked: Dustin Poirier
Fight result: Max Holloway · Decision (unanimous)
RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Joe SunTszu on Dustin Poirier.
Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
- Winner Accuracy 53.1% 34 30
- Method AccuracyNo method picks
- Round AccuracyNo round picks
- Underdog Accuracy 25.0% 4 12
Analyst picks: Drake Burden Hit; Jake Letarski Hit; Jon Litterine Hit; Joe SunTszu Miss; Cole Shelton Hit; Chris Olson Hit.
| Expand row | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drake Burden
Drake Burden
Current pick evidencePicked: Max Holloway Fight result: Max Holloway · Decision (unanimous) RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Drake Burden on Max Holloway. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Holloway · to win | Holloway · Decision (unanimous) R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Drake Burden on Max Holloway. Track record: winner called in 56 of 85 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Jake Letarski
Jake Letarski
Current pick evidencePicked: Max Holloway Fight result: Max Holloway · Decision (unanimous) RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Jake Letarski on Max Holloway. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Holloway · to win | Holloway · Decision (unanimous) R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Jake Letarski on Max Holloway. Track record: winner called in 40 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine
Current pick evidencePicked: Max Holloway Fight result: Max Holloway · Decision (unanimous) RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Jon Litterine on Max Holloway. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Holloway · to win | Holloway · Decision (unanimous) R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Jon Litterine on Max Holloway. Track record: winner called in 54 of 97 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Joe SunTszu
Joe SunTszu
Current pick evidencePicked: Dustin Poirier Fight result: Max Holloway · Decision (unanimous) RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Joe SunTszu on Dustin Poirier. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Poirier · to win | Holloway · Decision (unanimous) R5 | Miss | Not applicable — the winner call missed | Not applicable — the winner call missed | |
| RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Joe SunTszu on Dustin Poirier. Track record: winner called in 34 of 64 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Cole Shelton
Cole Shelton
Current pick evidencePicked: Max Holloway Fight result: Max Holloway · Decision (unanimous) RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Cole Shelton on Max Holloway. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Holloway · to win | Holloway · Decision (unanimous) R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Cole Shelton on Max Holloway. Track record: winner called in 52 of 99 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
Chris Olson
Chris Olson
Current pick evidencePicked: Max Holloway Fight result: Max Holloway · Decision (unanimous) RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Chris Olson on Max Holloway. Analyst track record Track record countsWinner counts resolved calls. Method and Round count only after a correct winner call. Underdog counts picks for a strict underdog in frozen pre-fight odds.Methodology
| Holloway · to win | Holloway · Decision (unanimous) R5 | Hit | Not called | Not called | |
| RotoWire's UFC 318 expert-picks table lists Chris Olson on Max Holloway. Track record: winner called in 31 of 70 resolved picks. How winner calls are counted | ||||||
5 of 6 nailed it.
The experts above are a lens, not credentials we conferred — analyst, fighter or betting desk.
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